Sunrise 5:16 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 10:07 PM   Moonset 5:26 AM

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PKZ033 Southern Chatham Strait- 258 Pm Akdt Wed Apr 24 2024
Tonight - Light winds becoming S 10 kt in the evening, then becoming N late. Seas 2 ft or less. Thu - SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Thu night - Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Fri - NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Fri night - Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Sat - SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Sun - S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Mon - SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 242255 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 255 PM AKDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SHORT TERM
/ through Thursday night / A low over central British Columbia is rotating bands of the showers westward to the border mountain range and into southern and central panhandle. PoP levels for showers diminish to 20-30 percent by Thursday morning, then dry starting Thursday night.

A weak ridge of high pressure over the eastern gulf and western Canada has holding the weather at bay for most of the area for a couple of days, and will continue to the start of the weekend.
Winds through the panhandle should be 15 kt or less, daytime seabreezes are possible which means winds may be flip flopping direction. Morning fog develop is likely as well from Yakutat, Cross Sound and western Prince of Wales Island.

LONG TERM
Through the long term a Rossby wave will shift towards the western seaboard carrying an open 500mb trough and associated surface low into the Gulf. While Friday still looks quite agreeable, light winds and warm temperatures, expect southeasterly winds to increase 22-27 knots south of Cape Fairweather into Dixon Saturday morning along with a southerly 8 to 12ft fresh swell. The highest of these significant heights look to remain south of Cape Decision. For this weekend, main areas of concern for mariners operating in smaller vessels in our waters is Cross Sound south along the coast of Prince of Wales, southern Chatham, and southern Clarence into Dixon Entrance.

While the overall theme remains the same for this system, clusters are starting to highlight an eastward shift of the surface low over the weekend, with a slightly steeper pressure gradient stretching into Haida Gwaii. These features in the ensembles could increase southerly winds west of Haida Gwaii and in Hecate Strait, resulting in an increase of the significant wave heights moving into Dixon and southern Clarence; have adjusted the forecast accordingly.

Regarding precipitation and guidance analysis, we can take two stances; one of the realistic optimist, while the other is the defensive pessimist. Regarding the former, guidance from CW3E Scripps highlights an uptick of IVT moving into Queen Charlotte sound, with members starting to bring more moisture north into the southern Panhandle. While amounts and rates still look abysmal, we could see a bit more rain than our previous forecasts, perhaps 1 to 1.5 inches or so of light rain accumulation through the weekend into Tuesday morning.

Switching to the defensive pessimist, while a few members of IVT guidance are bringing rain north, the majority of solutions continue to keep higher IVT values further south, with less than 1 inch of total rainfall more likely into Monday. To put this pessimism into context, precipitation sites in the south are reporting 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over the month, where April normals for Ketchikan are around 10 inches. For now, the published forecast indicates less than 1 inch totals over the weekend. No matter our attitudes on how this metaphorical milk is spilled, the central and southern Panhandle will likely finish the month far under normal precip amounts.

AVIATION
Widespread VFR conditions for the northern panhandle through the day Wednesday. Southern half of the panhandle will continue to see lingering showers and associated lower ceilings through Wednesday night before beginning to thin out a bit. Areas with thinning cloud cover overnight however are likely to see another batch of fog, such as on Prince of Wales and also up north at Yakutat. Similar to Wednesday, these lower conditions in the morning should quickly give way to VFR conditions by mid to late Thursday morning. No significant wind concerns.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Cape Ommaney
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Wed -- 01:16 AM AKDT     10.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:26 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:28 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:56 AM AKDT     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:11 PM AKDT     8.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:48 PM AKDT     2.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:25 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:06 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Ommaney, Alaska, Tide feet

Port Alexander
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Wed -- 01:26 AM AKDT     11.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:26 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:28 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:57 AM AKDT     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:21 PM AKDT     10.01 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:49 PM AKDT     2.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:26 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:07 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Alexander, Baranof Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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