Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Alexander, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 5:52PM Monday October 15, 2018 2:12 AM AKDT (10:12 UTC) Moonrise 2:42PMMoonset 10:13PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ033 Southern Chatham Strait- 358 Pm Akdt Sun Oct 14 2018
.small craft advisory through Monday...
Tonight..S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 11 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Mon..S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 11 ft near ocean entrances.
Mon night..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 10 ft near ocean entrances.
Tue..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 11 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Tue night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 11 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Wed..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Alexander, AK
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location: 56.17, -134.67     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 142316
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
316 pm akdt Sun oct 14 2018

Short term Satellite imagery and surface analysis indicate a
frontal boundary across the N central panhandle with another wave
traversing the NE along the boundary out of the NE pac. This will
allow the gradient to relax ever so slightly this afternoon evening
as the frontal boundary begins to be pull back nw. The gradient
will tighten over the N gulf again Mon with a gale force ely barrier
jet developing along the N gulf coast. Winds will remain gusty but
have diminished below headline criteria. Expect breezy conditions
to persist through Mon with potential for strong wind headlines
for the N gulf coast Mon evening. Sat imagery continues to show
deep moisture advecting into the region so expect continued
periods of moderate to heavy rain N of frederick sound. As wave
approaches the boundary will push slightly E before regressing nw,
so kept mention of chc precip this evening over the S panhandle.

Precip amounts will range from a few hundredths to a tenth S of
sumner strait with widespread amounts from 1-4 inches with
localized amounts to 6 inches along the outer coast and flood
advisories are in effect for akz018>022-025. Model solutions
remain in good agreement with the synoptic pattern including winds
and precip amounts. With clearer skies and lighter winds over the
s panhandle, added some patchy fog overnight into Mon mainly S of
sumner strait. Inherited forecast represented this well with
adjustments mainly to account for current trends and add mention
of fog overnight into mon. Overall, forecast confidence remains
above average.

Long term Tuesday through next weekend, as of 10 pm
Saturday ... Tuesday will begin with the remnants of the
atmospheric river (ar) slowly dissipating over southeast alaska.

Occasional heavy rainfall may still occur Tuesday morning,
especially along the northeast gulf coast; however, Tuesday's
rainfall totals will be significantly less than those of this
weekend. A brief dry period will occur after the ar ends. Late in
the week the next low will move into the gulf; this system
continues to look very fall-like and will likely carry a band of
gale force winds along its associated front as well as a period of
heavy rain for portions of the panhandle. The weekend as a whole
looks active with a second low tracking into the gulf on Sunday.

Very little change was made in the extended forecast. With
stronger winds and high chances of precipitation already
introduced yesterday associated with the low that pushes into the
gulf Friday, changing these fields would not add value to the
existing forecast. Currently, it is still too difficult to
accurately speculate where and when the low will ultimately end up
tracking. Ensemble spreads remain large with operational models
in poor agreement with the handling of the system. Forecast
confidence remains above average Tuesday and Wednesday; however,
it is below average beyond that timeframe.

Aviation Widespread mvmc conditions along with breezy winds,
lgt-mdt turb and some llws prevail Sun afternoon. Little change
expected through the forecast outside of conditions lowering to
imc in heavier precip. Conditions over the S panhandle not as
breezy as N of sumner strait, but mvmc CIGS persist. Some clearing
expected over the S panhandle overnight with some patchy fog
developing late resulting in imc by Mon morning.

Marine Winds have diminished slightly this afternoon with gales
lowered over N lynn canal. However, gales continue over cross
sound but are expected to ease further this evening. Elsewhere, in
the inner channels advisory level winds persist and expected to
continue through mon.

Hydrology An atmospheric river continues to produce mdt-hvy
precip over the N central inner channels this afternoon. A
secondary wave will push this feature slightly E then back nw
tonight. Expect precip amounts to ease slightly this evening then
increase late as the boundary begins pushing back nw. The taiya
river, mendenhall lake and montana creek along with the ungauged
rivers and streams over the N central inner channels are currently
under flood advisories through mon. Rapid rises from moderate to
heavy rains are possible along with mudslides in steeper terrain.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Areal flood advisory until noon akdt Monday for akz019>022-025.

Areal flood advisory until 7 am akdt Monday for akz018.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz022-043-051-052.

Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-021-031>036-041-042-053.

Bc jb
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK 5 mi43 min S 2.9 G 9.9 51°F 47°F1022.4 hPa
CDXA2 31 mi31 min ESE 20 G 24 48°F 1023.2 hPa46°F
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 31 mi51 min SE 22 G 29
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 94 mi73 min SSE 21 G 25 51°F 1021.4 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AAP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--1--NW15
G20
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G25
------------------------------Calm--2
1 day ago--1--1----------------------------------NE15
G25
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G15
2 days ago--W5--N5--4------------------------------Calm--E1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ommaney, Alaska
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Cape Ommaney
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:02 AM AKDT     7.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:30 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:23 AM AKDT     4.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:41 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:11 PM AKDT     8.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:56 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:14 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.93.34.96.37.37.67.46.75.854.64.75.36.27.28.18.58.37.56.34.73.32.2

Tide / Current Tables for Port Conclusion, Baranof Island, Alaska
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Port Conclusion
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:03 AM AKDT     9.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:30 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:24 AM AKDT     4.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:42 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:12 PM AKDT     9.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:56 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:13 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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12.13.75.77.48.698.67.76.45.34.64.75.56.78.29.39.99.78.87.25.43.72.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.