Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Alexander, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:02AMSunset 3:26PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 2:03 AM AKST (11:03 UTC) Moonrise 12:18PMMoonset 8:15PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ033 Southern Chatham Strait- 1255 Am Akst Wed Nov 22 2017
Tonight..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow late.
Wed..N wind 20 kt. NEar ocean entrances, N 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
Wed night..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 5 ft near ocean entrances.
Thu..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Thu night..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Fri..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sun..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Alexander, AK
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location: 56.17, -134.67     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 220710
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
1010 pm akst Tue nov 21 2017

Update With clearing skies, we updated a few temperatures
this evening and lowered some low temperatures for Wednesday
morning, for particularly the northern panhandle. We also added
some patchy fog for juneau through most of tonight but dissipating
as clouds increase from the south.

Our confidence for the winter weather advisory has fallen a
little. The NAM worryingly backed off on precipitation at all and
placed the bands to juneau's east. All other mainline models keep
the heavier bands across the capital city, but have all backed off
qpf amounts anywhere between 10 to 30 percent of what we are
forecasting. Both GFS and canadian are most bullish for the
event with anywhere between 4 to 6 inches. While the 00z ecmwf
would support a light snow event of around 1 to 3 inches. Should
the 06z GFS back off, we may elect to lower amounts. But at this
time, we are making no change.

Prev discussion Issued at ... 318 pm akst Tue nov 21 2017
short term... Through Wednesday night an occluded front will
move N into the southern panhandle by Wed morning, then stall as
it reaches the central panhandle Wed afternoon. The front will
remain there Wed evening before moving E of the area late wed
night. The arctic front will hang around over the central
panhandle through Wed night. Used mainly 12z namnest to handle
pressures winds, but did incorporate 15z SREF and 12z canadian
models to handle other elements.

Main forecast concern will be snowfall. Models are showing a more
robust precip shield with the stalling front over the central area
wed into Wed evening as deformation and frontogenesis enhance it.

There will be additional lift from the arctic front as well. An
upper trof sweeping in from the W later Wed evening could also
enhance precip along the main frontal band before pushing it to
the e. There are some model differences where heaviest precip band
will set up, but consensus of models puts highest probability of
it stalling along a pajn-pasi line. The northern end of the band
will remain all snow so think at least 4 to 6 inches of snow will
fall in the juneau area by Wed evening. However, if the band
maintains its intensity a bit longer into Wed night as the 12z
canadian and 18z GFS suggest, more than 6 inches of snow would
occur. Issuing a winter weather advisory for zone 25 from 18z wed
to 06z thu, but there is potential a winter storm warning will be
needed if the snow band maintains its intensity longer into wed
night. Other spots that could potentially need wwa headlines will
be zones 20... 21... And 24 if band is stronger than current
forecast has it, or it shifts a bit further w. Still, those areas
will likely see 2 to 4 inches of snow. Hyder area will likely see
up to 5 inches of snow, with an inch or 2 for zones 19... 23... And
26.

Otherwise, precip will spread N into the southern panhandle
tonight, then reach the central area Wed morning. Some precip will
likely get to the N inner channels Wed afternoon. Eventually, the
main precip area will shift E later Wed night. Still expect sca
level N flow over the northern inner channels through Wed night,
especially for lynn canal. SCA level winds will develop ahead of
the front over the SE gulf late tonight and Wed morning, then
decrease Wed afternoon as front weakens.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ... The second half of the
week will see a system over the SE corner of the panhandle
departing to the east on Thursday followed quickly by a front and
its associated low pressure moving into the central gulf from the
west.

For Thursday expect precip along the central and southern coast
mtns. To shift off to the east through mid day followed by a bit
of a break. Then precip starts to arrive with the front from the
west going into late afternoon and evening. Have moved up the
rain snow line for this timeframe and places like hoonah gustavus
and downtown juneau could see a mix Thursday night and Friday. The
p-type forecast remains a challenge however and confidence is
lower than normal. Temperatures at 850mb across the central
panhandle look to hover around the -6c mark that we like to see
for snow through Friday, then things cool a bit more through the
weekend.

The low looks to slowly shift to the south through Saturday and take
majority of the precip with it. Have a chance or less in the
forecast for Sunday, lowest pops across the northern panhandle.

Updates to this forecast package were minor for pressure wind.

Adjusted temperatures up some in the mid range and lowered values
over the weekend.

Aviation...

ajk watches warnings advisories...

public... Winter weather advisory from 9 am to 9 pm akst Wednesday for
akz025.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-022-031-041>043.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz051-052.

Rwt ferrin

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Winter weather advisory from 9 am to 9 pm akst Wednesday for
akz025.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-031-034-041-042.

Jwa
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK 5 mi52 min N 13 G 25 35°F 42°F1000.7 hPa
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 31 mi42 min ENE 7 G 22
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 94 mi64 min N 23 G 25 31°F 1002.3 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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N7
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N3
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N12
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G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AAP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--1--NW15
G20
--N15
G25
------------------------------Calm--2
1 day ago--1--1----------------------------------NE15
G25
--NE10
G15
2 days ago--W5--N5--4------------------------------Calm--E1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ommaney, Baranof Island, Alaska
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Cape Ommaney
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:58 AM AKST     8.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:51 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:24 AM AKST     4.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:17 AM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:07 PM AKST     9.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:38 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:15 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:03 PM AKST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.27.18.48.88.47.46.154.34.45.26.68.19.39.89.58.36.44.32.310.40.82.1

Tide / Current Tables for Port Alexander, Baranof Island, Alaska
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Port Alexander
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:08 AM AKST     10.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:51 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:24 AM AKST     4.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:18 AM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:18 PM AKST     11.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:37 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:15 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:05 PM AKST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.88.19.610.39.98.66.95.34.44.55.57.1910.511.411.19.97.75.22.81.10.40.92.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.