Monday, June26, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Chignik, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:19AMSunset 11:45PM Monday June 26, 2017 7:47 PM AKDT (03:47 UTC) Moonrise 7:27AMMoonset 11:11PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chignik, AK
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location: 56.23, -158.35     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 270025
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
425 pm akdt Mon jun 26 2017

Analysis and upper levels
Currently we have an upper low over the south central bering sea
supporting the surface low and associated weak front from the
central bering sea southeast across the alaska peninsula into the
western gulf of alaska. The upper level and surface ridge over the
gulf of alaska into the eastern interior is being pushed east as
the bering system continues to move east toward the mainland.

The subtropical jet is still well to the south of the aleutians.

As this front pushes north into the southern mainland, a ridge is
building in advance of it that will result in the typical
acceleration of wind through portage pass and along turnagain arm.

The remaining area of unstable conditions is over the copper river
basin today. This will be the focus of any thunderstorm activity
for our area of responsibility. With an increase in cloud cover
and moist stable air associate with the front, convective activity
will all but cease for the southern mainland for the next several
days. The persistent nature of the low over the bering sea will
hold that region in the cool wet pattern for the remainder of the
work week.

Model discussion
Model agreement remains good as the longwave trough over the
bering sea has become a persistent feature. The models also remain
in good agreement with the timing of the front washing out over
southcentral alaska late today to be followed by a strong
shortwave trough front on Tuesday. The models are in excellent
agreement bringing the developing surface low from the north
pacific into the western gulf of alaska Wednesday night and

Panc...VFR conditions are expected to persist for the remainder
of the day and over night. The decaying front will hold some
clouds in around the 4000-6000 ft level and keep some light rain
over the area into the early evening until the southeast wind
kicks in around 02z. The southeast wind is in response to the
pressure rises as the ridge builds in advance of the front and
should persist over the airfield until nearly midnight before
letting up overnight.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The area of instability that has triggered some afternoon, and
potentially evening, thunderstorms along the mountains in the
northern copper river basin will push north further into the
interior tonight. The front that currently moving up cook inlet
and over the northern gulf coast looks to be weakening as it
progresses northward. This will keep most of the rainfall fairly
light this afternoon evening as it moves into the area, and many
areas on the leeward sides of the mountains will see little to no
rain at all. There is an ample amount of moisture riding on the
coat-tails of this frontal system, which will bring light rain to
much of southcentral tonight through Wednesday, and some moderate
rainfall to areas along the eastern kenai peninsula and northern
gulf coast. For the anchorage and matanuska valley areas, there
will be a good amount of downslope keeping most of the rain out of
the area. However, the reinforcing moisture may bring enough
moisture to these areas to get a little to spill over the
mountains. Winds through turnagain arm and along the copper river
will increase tonight through the middle of the week as the
pressure gradient along the coast increases.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
The first front has moved inland and is now weakening, but
southerly flow aloft is keeping showers over most of southwest
this evening. These will continue overnight before a more
substantial surge of moisture from the north pacific merges with
the bering trough and moves over the region. Expect widespread
rain with this system, albeit not heavy given the low level
southeast winds which will be gusty, especially near the alaska
range and through kamishak gap. The upper trough lifts north
Wednesday afternoon, but another surge of north pacific moisture
will move into southwest Wednesday night and Thursday, keeping
cooler and moist wet conditions across the region.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A broad low over the central bering sea will slowly move
northeast towards the pribilof islands before lifting north
through the bering strait. Rain showers will impact most of the
central and eastern aleutians and pribilof islands through Tuesday
night. Cyclonic flow and the associated winds will weaken as the
surface low fills.

The next low to impact the region moves toward unalaska Wednesday
night and Thursday, but it will only be a glancing impact with
light rain anticipated at this time.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Friday through the weekend remains in a progressive wet pattern
across the bering and the gulf of alaska as the jet stream along
50n ushers low pressure along a fairly strong jet streak. Multiple
short waves are expected to move inland through the weekend
bringing higher chances for rain. Winds will generally be under
small craft for area marines as the upper level systems move
quickly and lack surface organization. Operational models struggle
to handle the fast moving shortwaves in the extended forecast;
therefore only minor edits were made for the upcoming weekend
into early next week. Wpc data used update the current package is
a fairly even blend of the GFS and ECMWF including the ensembles.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Sa
southcentral alaska... Tp
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ja
long term... Kh

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AJC (wind in knots)
Last 24hr--------------------------W7SW6SW11--SW6SW4CalmCalmN3NE4NE5
1 day agoW8NW10--------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Bay, Northwest Arm, Alaska
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Castle Bay
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Mon -- 12:35 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:20 AM AKDT     10.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:46 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:27 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:20 AM AKDT     -3.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:38 PM AKDT     8.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:18 PM AKDT     1.91 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:25 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Chankliut Island, Alaska
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Chankliut Island
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Mon -- 12:34 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:20 AM AKDT     10.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:46 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:26 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:16 AM AKDT     -3.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:38 PM AKDT     7.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:14 PM AKDT     1.86 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:23 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.