Sunrise 5:14 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 11:31 PM   Moonset 5:26 AM

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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 311 Pm Akdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Tonight - Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Fri - Light winds becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. Fri night - W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. Sat - S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Sat night - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.Sun - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Mon - SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Tue - NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 252313 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 313 PM AKDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SHORT TERM
Little in way of changes for Southeast Alaska, as surface ridge continues to keep lighter winds, minimal cloud cover with exception of lower clouds. Anticipate a marine layer to reform in the northeast gulf coast tonight that will likely spread into the coastal area to include: Yakutat, Cross Sound, Perhaps Peril Strait, Western Chichagof Island and Baranof Island, and Western Prince of Wales Island. The clouds and patchy fog under the clouds could start to spreading through Western Icy Strait towards Gustavus by Friday morning.

Overall short term dry until perhaps late Friday night as a front starts lifting northwards the southern portion of the panhandle, when chance PoPs start moving in.

LONG TERM
The main theme through the weekend is that an open longwave trough will move into the Gulf, bringing in a 988mb to 998mb surface low, with an escalation in southeasterly winds, waves, and some light rain. The 988mb low demands attention, but is a manifest of the uncertainty found within the deterministic trends. For now, have found a happy medium in the ensembles, with a hedge in the wind field towards the more serious GFS and NAMNEST solution. Confidence is very low that we see a 988mb low develop on the Gulf on Saturday; however, upstream development and model trends will have to be monitored closely as more high resolution models start to capture this feature. Main questions to answer in the coming 24 hours as we watch cyclogenesis is how our waters will either stabilize, or add to the instability, of the air mass, which has implications on how much momentum we can mix down to the surface thus impacting surface wind speeds. If the more robust solutions featuring instability comes to fruition, there is potential to see gale force winds near Dixon and along the western coast of Prince of Wales, along with more elevated and sustained southwest winds Sunday into Monday which increases and prolongs the southwest swell a bit.

QPF (quantitative precipitation forecasts) continue to trend downwards but there is some hope if the more aggressive deterministic solutions come to fruition, which could steer some relatively higher IVT into the south. For now, the current forecast utilizes a modern statistical approach, with 48 hour rain totals coming in under 1 inch for most of the region over the weekend into Monday.

Tuesday a secondary low forms aloft near Queen Charlotte sound, with northerly flow developing across the Gulf as high pressure builds from the west, likely leading to warming temperatures and clearing skies into Wednesday. With that said, will need to watch the potential for a shallow marine layer keeping some areas a little cooler. Diurnal wind regimes also come to mind.

Attention turns to end of next week as another system lifts into the Gulf, with the potential to see a bit more moisture moving into the northern regions.

AVIATION
Conditions ranging from 3000/5 to CAVU with lower conditions to the south, if you want to call 3000/5 "low". No impactful winds, no wind shear, no problems. One exception: low level marine clouds are expected to move in again tonight and invade the inner channels possibly as far as Gustavus as well as the outer coast. Early to mid morning clearing should produce another day like this afternoon turned out. Go Fly!

MARINE
The Gulf continues to be docile, with buoys 82,83, and 84 reporting southwest 3 to 4ft swell at 8 to 10 seconds. Expect the swell to increase a touch tonight but concerns remain low through Friday.

Threats escalate Saturday into Monday for our mariners operating smaller vessels across southeast Alaskan waters as a band of 25-30 knot southeasterly winds and 7 to 12ft south southwest fresh seas develop, south of Cape Fairweather along our coast. Expect the highest significant wave heights west of Prince of Wales near Dixon Entrance, with southerly 5 to 9ft fresh seas in far southern Clarence Strait exposed to the open waters of Dixon. Mariners operating in Icy Strait will also feel an increase of 15 to 20 knot easterly winds Saturday, with the most concern around Pt.
Couverden and Skull Island.

Some wording of caution around Saturday for the south. There is potential to see a brief period of gale force winds which would lead to an increase in significant wave heights; however, confidence remains too low to put this threat into the forecast.
Will need to continue to monitor the system as it moves off the Aleutian Islands into the Gulf.

Tidal variations are relaxing compared to the large swings we saw with the full moon on April 23rd, with Third Quarter on May 1st.

Many thanks to the operators in our waters who reported their conditions to WFO Juneau throughout the week.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

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