Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point Baker, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:38AMSunset 3:08PM Friday December 15, 2017 2:47 PM AKST (23:47 UTC) Moonrise 6:21AMMoonset 3:30PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 420 Am Akst Fri Dec 15 2017
.small craft advisory late tonight...
Today..S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft. Showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Out of interior passes, gusts to 40 kt late. Seas 5 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Sat..S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
Sat night..SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers.
Sun..SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..S wind 15 kt becoming e. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point Baker, AK
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location: 56.65, -133.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 151617
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
717 am akst Fri dec 15 2017

Short term today through Saturday night as of 0600 this
morning, an inverted trough extends over the eastern gulf and se
alaskan panhandle, while an upper level ridge builds over the
west-central gulf in response to a strengthening shortwave near
the aleutian islands. At the surface, a weak area of lower
pressure has developed near the baranof island coastline, as a
ridge of high pressure strengthens behind it. Both of these
features will continue to quickly push east through today before a
weather front associated with the developing system near the
aleutians lifts northeast tonight and continues into Saturday
morning. Colder air aloft is contributing to a more shower like
regime and is providing some instability to some of the cells
developing near the baranof island coastline. Lightning detection
algorithms did register a few lightning strikes near the southern
tip of baranof island early this morning.

Winds should continue to diminish today, and precipitation chances
should also decrease, as the ridge builds in. Some breaks in
cloud cover may be possible for some areas, but for the most part,
onshore flow should persist. However, winds and precipitation
should pick back up as the front moves through the area beginning
late this evening. Winds will be high gale force along eastern
waters, and a barrier jet will form along the coastline near
yakutat bay. In the inside waters, winds will increase to small
craft advisory levels throughout most areas and to gale warning in
clarence strait.

In addition, colder air aloft and additional cold air advection
with this system may assist with mixing rain with snow in some
areas, and sufficient cold air over more northern areas should
help to provide more significant snow amounts, especially for the
haines and klondike highways, where we have issued winter storm
warnings. We also decided to expand a wider area of possible
scattered thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into the overnight
hours, mainly near the yakutat coastline and then extending along
the eastern gulf marine zones. Forecast soundings and model cape
and lifted index continue to show a relatively unstable air mass
with this system as the circulation head of the shortwave
progresses east.

We primarily used the NAM for adjustments to the forecast. Some
high resolution models were incorporated into the wind forecast
along the gulf waters and throughout the inner channels. Winds for
land areas were also adjusted using MOS guidance. Most areas in
northern portions of the panhandle have already seen their high
temperatures for the day, so temperatures have subsequently been
adjusted down. In addition, pops and QPF were updated with a
combination of the ECMWF and the NAM to better time the onset of
precipitation with the frontal passage.

Long term Sunday through Thursday as of 10pm Thursday
main highlight of the long term period is the potential for a
break, albeit short, in the seemingly endless progression of warm
and wet frontal systems which have made the first half of december
feel more like early fall than meteorological winter lately.

Prior to this above-mentioned break, cool upper trough will drop
into the northern gulf on Sunday with onshore flow and a showery
regime continuing into at least the first half of Monday. Low
levels will cool as chilly air from the bering sea gets advected
around the trough. This air will be cool but not cold as it will
likely be modified by a moderate trajectory over the gulf. May
just get cool enough over the northern inner channels for the
showers to be in the form of snow with a mix down towards the
juneau area. Due to the showery nature of the precip and
borderline temperatures, not expecting significant accumulations
at this time.

The trough will drop quickly southeast on Monday as yet another
strong upper ridge re-asserts itself over the gulf. The difference
between this ridge and the one that has parked itself over the
west coast of north america over the past 2 weeks is that the mean
ridge position looks to set up more over the central gulf. This
will provide a period of offshore flow starting Monday night and
lasting through Tuesday night. This will likely promote clearing
skies and diminishing precip Monday night with the break in the
precip lasting until at least early Wednesday. Operational models
then disagree on the amount of pacific energy that is able to make
it over the ridge and into the panhandle for mid week while
ensembles indicate more ridging maintaining or re-asserting itself
by late week.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind late tonight for akz027.

Winter storm warning from 9 pm this evening to 9 am akst
Saturday for akz019.

Winter storm warning from midnight tonight to 3 pm akst Saturday
for akz018.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz022-036-041>043-051-052.

Small craft advisory for pkz011>013-021-031>035-053.

Voveris del
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 43 mi48 min SSE 11 G 14 40°F 1016.8 hPa (+1.3)
CDEA2 - Cape Decision, AK 50 mi86 min W 26 G 37
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK 56 mi48 min Calm G 1 42°F 46°F1017.5 hPa (+1.8)

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kake - Kake Airport, AK25 mi2.9 hrsESE 510.00 miOvercast39°F37°F93%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from AFE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE8--SE9SE7SE6E6SE8--E8E5E6E7SE7E6E5SE8E6E7E5E7----E5
1 day agoE10--E8--SE4E10
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2 days agoE6E7E4E6E6NE4E4E6E6E9
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Tide / Current Tables for Beck Island, Keku Strait, Alaska
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Beck Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:57 AM AKST     3.64 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:20 AM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:24 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:45 AM AKST     14.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:30 PM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:15 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:44 PM AKST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:42 PM AKST     12.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.49.87.85.74.23.64.56.79.512.314.214.613.611.48.352.20.40.11.44.17.310.212

Tide / Current Tables for Monte Carlo Island, Keku Strait, Alaska
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Monte Carlo Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:29 AM AKST     3.64 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:20 AM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:24 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:39 AM AKST     13.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:31 PM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:16 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:16 PM AKST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:36 PM AKST     11.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.18.66.64.83.83.857.19.611.813.213.412.29.86.73.61.20.10.42.14.67.39.611

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.