Sunrise 5:16 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 10:06 PM   Moonset 5:20 AM

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PKZ035 Sumner Strait- 855 Am Akdt Wed Apr 24 2024
Today - Light winds becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. Tonight - SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. Thu - Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Thu night - Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Fri - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Sat - SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Sun - SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 241515 CCA AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 454 AM AKDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SHORT TERM
Lingering showers slowly give way through Wednesday as a weak low departs into British Columbia. While chances for showers will linger into the overnight time frame for the southern panhandle, by Thursday, don't expect anything beyond a few isolated showers. Fog will dissipate through the morning hours on Wednesday, but may redevelop Wednesday night, especially across the southern half of the area. Winds will stay on the lower side, though a few areas could see 15 kt winds, expect many locations to remain in the 5 to 10 kt range.

Only minimal changes were made to the forecast. Adjusted wind directions and a few wind speeds for the outer coastal waters and the inner channels in order to better reflect the arrival of a ridge across the Gulf of AK. Think that the chance for a shower or two as far N as Juneau does exist through the day, and so extended chances of precip further N, along with holding lingering chances of precip in the S panhandle later into the night on Wednesday.
Made some adjustments to lower temperatures for the overnight time period Wednesday night, especially for the northern half of the area. Think that there is some potential for temperatures in areas with clearer skies on Wednesday to go a bit above the current forecast, but this will be heavily dependent on how much upper level cloud cover remains in place.

LONG TERM
Thursday a ridge will be building across the interior of Alaska, with zonal flow over the northern Pacific.
These features will help block active weather from moving into the region, bringing dry conditions and light winds to the end of the week. Upstream of the ridge in the Bering Sea, a closed low will dig into the Gulf of Alaska early Friday morning, making a beeline for Haida Gwaii. As this feature ejects towards the archipelago, surface pressure will fall in the Gulf Saturday, with ensembles indicating a 998mb low and southeasterly 22-28 knot winds into the central Gulf and coastal waters. While there is uncertainty in the exact location and orientation of this feature, we will likely see elevated east winds out of Cross Sound and other east-to-west orientated passageways into Sunday, along with 25-30 knot southerly winds in Dixon Entrance and Hecate Strait, perhaps as far north as southern Clarence Strait.

Regarding precipitation, a desiccant pattern continues for the future as our systems undergo cyclogenesis in dry regions and fail to steer ample tropical moisture into the Panhandle. Current IVT guidance suggests Saturday afternoon into Sunday afternoon will see some rainfall for the central and southern region, but amounts and rates fall below climate normal. One item to note is the central and southern Panhandle is now marked under a D0 Drought Intensity (meaning abnormally dry). Temperatures continue to trend warmer across the Panhandle, with the south reaching into the upper 50s by Friday.

Extended period for the late weekend and beyond is still looking rather damp as a new low moves E across the southern gulf.
Southern panhandle again will be the favored areas for rainfall, but some could reach as far north as Skagway and Cape Fairweather.
Conditions start to dry again toward mid next week as more easterly flow develops.

AVIATION
VFR and MVFR conditions across the northern panhandle, as a high cloud ceiling occasionally moves overhead. MVFR with occasional IFR conditions likely for the southern panhandle and near the coastal mountains alongside fog in the morning hours on Wednesday for some locations. The fog will dissipate through the morning and cloud ceilings improve through the afternoon and overnight timeframe. While some fog may redevelop Wednesday night, particularly in the S panhandle, expect widespread VFR conditions after it dissipates Thursday morning.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

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