Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Old Harbor, AK
March 29, 2024 6:31 AM AKDT (14:31 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:26 AM Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 6:38 AM |
PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight - SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu - W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu night - N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri through Sun - NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
PKZ100
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Anchorage, AK
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FXAK68 PAFC 291300 AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 500 AM AKDT Fri Mar 29 2024
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
An active weather pattern continues over Southcentral with the first of two storms moving into the northern Gulf of Alaska this morning. A front wrapping around a strong low in the Eastern Bering Sea continues to move north into the Northwest Gulf of Alaska where a weak low is now forming and will continue to push north and east through Cook Inlet today. Snow levels will rise ahead of the front resulting in a quick period of rain/snow showers changing to all rain for the coastal areas. High mountain locations will remain all snow. Inland areas will see a mix of rain and snow with minimal snow accumulations. Gusty southeast winds will develop ahead of the front with locations such a the Anchorage Hillside, Thompson Pass and Turnagain Arm reaching wind speeds of 35 to 50 mph later this morning. Winds in the Anchorage Bowl will range from 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph today and into Friday night.
A much stronger storm will move through Southcentral Saturday and Sunday bringing rain, snow and strong winds. Models continue to converge on a track that will bring a strong low north through Cook Inlet on Saturday, with its its front stretching northward to Prince William Sound. Southeasterly to southerly winds will continue to bring moisture to coastal areas from Kodiak Island to Cordova resulting in rain and snow Saturday and Sunday. Snow levels will range from 800 to 1000 feet creating mostly rain at coastal areas with snow at higher elevations. Passes and mountains should remain as all snow during this event. This second storm will bring another round of strong winds with sustained winds ranging from 50 to 60 mph with gusts to 75 mph possible along the Anchorage Hillside, and Turnagain Arm with and wind gusts 50 to 60 mph in the Anchorage Bowl. Strongest winds are expected Saturday morning. A High Wind Watch has been issued for these ares. Winds gusting to 45 mph are possible Saturday in the Mat-Su.
Colder air will push rapidly north and east on very strong south to southwest winds into the Western Kenai, the Anchorage Bowl, the Mat-Su and Susitna Valleys with snow accumulations likely at sea level Saturday evening into Sunday on the back side of the low.
Cold and moist southwest flow will bring significant upslope snowfall to the front range of the Chugach, the Talkeetna Mountains as well as the Susitna Valley. Heavy snow and blowing snow is expected in Thompson Pass Saturday and Sunday with 1 to 2 feet of snow expected as well as wind gusts in excess of 50 mph. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for this area.
-CC
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, the BERING SEA and the ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Friday through Monday)...
A broad upper-level longwave trough remains parked over the Bering, with its axis stretching from the northwest Alaska coast south across the central Aleutians. This longwave trough is dominated by two upper-level lows. The first is lifting from the base of the trough to the Y-K Delta coast this morning while the second dives southeast from eastern Russia, replacing its predecessor at the base of the trough by Saturday morning.
The first upper-level low will continue to track northeast as its attendant surface low moves inland. Snow and blowing along the coast and over the Pribilof Islands overnight will wind down this morning as the low weakens. A developing southwesterly onshore flow in the wake of the low, however, will allow snow showers to develop across much of Southwest Alaska with additional minor accumulations likely.
Snow showers will continue across interior Southwest Alaska into Saturday morning as a secondary upper-level shortwave lifts north following the low. Snow showers will then slowly taper off, mainly confined to upslope mountainous terrain.
Any reprieve, however, will be short-lived as the digging upper- level low from eastern Russia moves to the central Aleutians. The result will be a reamplification of the long wave pattern, allowing for a shortwave and associated surface low over the North Pacific to strengthen and lift north toward the Alaska Peninsula. These features will have great jet support to allow for further strengthening as both reach southern Kodiak Island Saturday morning. Strong winds will wrap around the surface low, especially along the backside of the low where colder, more unstable air will work in. Copious moisture will also accompany this system, with widespread snow likely for much of Southwest Alaska. The biggest challenge will be the exact track of the low, specifically which side of the Alaska Range the center of circulation will take. A more western track would help bring southeasterly gap winds to places from King Salmon to Iliamna.
Any increase in southerly winds could allow for enough warm air for a rain/snow mix in typical warmer and windier locations. An easterly track would likely allow for mainly all snow for all of Southwest Alaska. Whatever the track, many communities will see several inches of new snow Saturday into Sunday along with very strong winds both ahead of and in the wake of the low.
Over the Bering, the east Russia upper-level low will sweep a surface trough north to south across the Bering. This trough will usher in colder air and snow showers from west of the Pribilofs south to the central Aleutians for Saturday. Yet another upper- level trough and surface cold front then drop out of Siberia reaching the Southwest coast by late Sunday. These features will bring much colder air across the eastern half of the Bering and western half of the state by Monday.
-TM
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...
A deep upper level trough over the Eastern Bering extends from the Arctic to the North Pacific drives across the state of Alaska through Wednesday. While the confidence of movement of the trough is good, a number of shortwaves traveling through the pattern increase the uncertainty in the associated weather, particularly across Southern Alaska as several North Pacific systems add to the mix. Deep cloudiness and periods of snow moves across the Interior Sunday and Monday, diminishing Tuesday. Over the Southcentral areas, the first well developed surface low marches onshore near the Canadian Border late Monday, with gusty winds and mostly rain spreading inland and Westward towards Prince William Sound. Gusty outflow winds with areas of gale force winds blows across Kamishak Bay and the Barren Islands and around Sitkinak late Monday, diminishing Tuesday. A weak upper ridge moves into the Interior for Thursday.
Another somewhat deep trough moves into the Bering Wednesday.
Most of the energy is deflected over the Southern Aleutians and Bering. A developing North Pacific surface low pushes its way across the Western Aleutians on its way just North of the Pribilofs by Thursday. Gusty winds move over the Aleutians while areas of gales surround the low in the Western Bering, all diminishing Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall accompany the front as it moves Eastward into the Pribilofs, Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska by Thursday. Another round of locally heavy rain comes into the Western Aleutians for Thursday.
Kutz
AVIATION
PANC...VFR conditions thru tonight. Light and variable winds will transition to gusty and southeasterly this afternoon with the first of two low pressure systems, the second and stronger low not arriving until the latter half of Saturday. Any precipitation on Friday should be light, with the best shot of a rain/snow mix from noon thru the evening hours, and perhaps a better chance for precip Saturday morning.
-BL
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 500 AM AKDT Fri Mar 29 2024
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
An active weather pattern continues over Southcentral with the first of two storms moving into the northern Gulf of Alaska this morning. A front wrapping around a strong low in the Eastern Bering Sea continues to move north into the Northwest Gulf of Alaska where a weak low is now forming and will continue to push north and east through Cook Inlet today. Snow levels will rise ahead of the front resulting in a quick period of rain/snow showers changing to all rain for the coastal areas. High mountain locations will remain all snow. Inland areas will see a mix of rain and snow with minimal snow accumulations. Gusty southeast winds will develop ahead of the front with locations such a the Anchorage Hillside, Thompson Pass and Turnagain Arm reaching wind speeds of 35 to 50 mph later this morning. Winds in the Anchorage Bowl will range from 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph today and into Friday night.
A much stronger storm will move through Southcentral Saturday and Sunday bringing rain, snow and strong winds. Models continue to converge on a track that will bring a strong low north through Cook Inlet on Saturday, with its its front stretching northward to Prince William Sound. Southeasterly to southerly winds will continue to bring moisture to coastal areas from Kodiak Island to Cordova resulting in rain and snow Saturday and Sunday. Snow levels will range from 800 to 1000 feet creating mostly rain at coastal areas with snow at higher elevations. Passes and mountains should remain as all snow during this event. This second storm will bring another round of strong winds with sustained winds ranging from 50 to 60 mph with gusts to 75 mph possible along the Anchorage Hillside, and Turnagain Arm with and wind gusts 50 to 60 mph in the Anchorage Bowl. Strongest winds are expected Saturday morning. A High Wind Watch has been issued for these ares. Winds gusting to 45 mph are possible Saturday in the Mat-Su.
Colder air will push rapidly north and east on very strong south to southwest winds into the Western Kenai, the Anchorage Bowl, the Mat-Su and Susitna Valleys with snow accumulations likely at sea level Saturday evening into Sunday on the back side of the low.
Cold and moist southwest flow will bring significant upslope snowfall to the front range of the Chugach, the Talkeetna Mountains as well as the Susitna Valley. Heavy snow and blowing snow is expected in Thompson Pass Saturday and Sunday with 1 to 2 feet of snow expected as well as wind gusts in excess of 50 mph. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for this area.
-CC
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, the BERING SEA and the ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Friday through Monday)...
A broad upper-level longwave trough remains parked over the Bering, with its axis stretching from the northwest Alaska coast south across the central Aleutians. This longwave trough is dominated by two upper-level lows. The first is lifting from the base of the trough to the Y-K Delta coast this morning while the second dives southeast from eastern Russia, replacing its predecessor at the base of the trough by Saturday morning.
The first upper-level low will continue to track northeast as its attendant surface low moves inland. Snow and blowing along the coast and over the Pribilof Islands overnight will wind down this morning as the low weakens. A developing southwesterly onshore flow in the wake of the low, however, will allow snow showers to develop across much of Southwest Alaska with additional minor accumulations likely.
Snow showers will continue across interior Southwest Alaska into Saturday morning as a secondary upper-level shortwave lifts north following the low. Snow showers will then slowly taper off, mainly confined to upslope mountainous terrain.
Any reprieve, however, will be short-lived as the digging upper- level low from eastern Russia moves to the central Aleutians. The result will be a reamplification of the long wave pattern, allowing for a shortwave and associated surface low over the North Pacific to strengthen and lift north toward the Alaska Peninsula. These features will have great jet support to allow for further strengthening as both reach southern Kodiak Island Saturday morning. Strong winds will wrap around the surface low, especially along the backside of the low where colder, more unstable air will work in. Copious moisture will also accompany this system, with widespread snow likely for much of Southwest Alaska. The biggest challenge will be the exact track of the low, specifically which side of the Alaska Range the center of circulation will take. A more western track would help bring southeasterly gap winds to places from King Salmon to Iliamna.
Any increase in southerly winds could allow for enough warm air for a rain/snow mix in typical warmer and windier locations. An easterly track would likely allow for mainly all snow for all of Southwest Alaska. Whatever the track, many communities will see several inches of new snow Saturday into Sunday along with very strong winds both ahead of and in the wake of the low.
Over the Bering, the east Russia upper-level low will sweep a surface trough north to south across the Bering. This trough will usher in colder air and snow showers from west of the Pribilofs south to the central Aleutians for Saturday. Yet another upper- level trough and surface cold front then drop out of Siberia reaching the Southwest coast by late Sunday. These features will bring much colder air across the eastern half of the Bering and western half of the state by Monday.
-TM
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...
A deep upper level trough over the Eastern Bering extends from the Arctic to the North Pacific drives across the state of Alaska through Wednesday. While the confidence of movement of the trough is good, a number of shortwaves traveling through the pattern increase the uncertainty in the associated weather, particularly across Southern Alaska as several North Pacific systems add to the mix. Deep cloudiness and periods of snow moves across the Interior Sunday and Monday, diminishing Tuesday. Over the Southcentral areas, the first well developed surface low marches onshore near the Canadian Border late Monday, with gusty winds and mostly rain spreading inland and Westward towards Prince William Sound. Gusty outflow winds with areas of gale force winds blows across Kamishak Bay and the Barren Islands and around Sitkinak late Monday, diminishing Tuesday. A weak upper ridge moves into the Interior for Thursday.
Another somewhat deep trough moves into the Bering Wednesday.
Most of the energy is deflected over the Southern Aleutians and Bering. A developing North Pacific surface low pushes its way across the Western Aleutians on its way just North of the Pribilofs by Thursday. Gusty winds move over the Aleutians while areas of gales surround the low in the Western Bering, all diminishing Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall accompany the front as it moves Eastward into the Pribilofs, Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska by Thursday. Another round of locally heavy rain comes into the Western Aleutians for Thursday.
Kutz
AVIATION
PANC...VFR conditions thru tonight. Light and variable winds will transition to gusty and southeasterly this afternoon with the first of two low pressure systems, the second and stronger low not arriving until the latter half of Saturday. Any precipitation on Friday should be light, with the best shot of a rain/snow mix from noon thru the evening hours, and perhaps a better chance for precip Saturday morning.
-BL
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK | 29 mi | 44 min | ESE 18G | 39°F | 37°F | 29.54 | ||
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK | 68 mi | 42 min | ENE 3.9G | 38°F | 38°F | 3 ft | 29.55 | |
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK | 82 mi | 44 min | S 2.9G | 36°F | 40°F | 29.67 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Jap Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:48 AM AKDT Moonrise
Fri -- 04:19 AM AKDT 8.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:50 AM AKDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:38 AM AKDT Moonset
Fri -- 11:04 AM AKDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:11 PM AKDT 6.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:49 PM AKDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:43 PM AKDT 2.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:48 AM AKDT Moonrise
Fri -- 04:19 AM AKDT 8.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:50 AM AKDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:38 AM AKDT Moonset
Fri -- 11:04 AM AKDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:11 PM AKDT 6.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:49 PM AKDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:43 PM AKDT 2.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Jap Bay, Alaska, Tide feet
12 am |
3.3 |
1 am |
4.8 |
2 am |
6.5 |
3 am |
7.9 |
4 am |
8.6 |
5 am |
8.5 |
6 am |
7.5 |
7 am |
5.8 |
8 am |
3.9 |
9 am |
2.1 |
10 am |
0.7 |
11 am |
0.2 |
12 pm |
0.6 |
1 pm |
1.7 |
2 pm |
3.2 |
3 pm |
4.6 |
4 pm |
5.7 |
5 pm |
6.2 |
6 pm |
6 |
7 pm |
5.3 |
8 pm |
4.4 |
9 pm |
3.4 |
10 pm |
2.7 |
11 pm |
2.6 |
Moser Bay (Trap Point)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:50 AM AKDT Moonrise
Fri -- 04:45 AM AKDT 12.31 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:52 AM AKDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:39 AM AKDT Moonset
Fri -- 11:43 AM AKDT 0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:37 PM AKDT 8.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:51 PM AKDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:22 PM AKDT 3.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:50 AM AKDT Moonrise
Fri -- 04:45 AM AKDT 12.31 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:52 AM AKDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:39 AM AKDT Moonset
Fri -- 11:43 AM AKDT 0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:37 PM AKDT 8.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:51 PM AKDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:22 PM AKDT 3.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Moser Bay (Trap Point), Alaska, Tide feet
12 am |
3.6 |
1 am |
5.5 |
2 am |
8 |
3 am |
10.3 |
4 am |
11.9 |
5 am |
12.3 |
6 am |
11.4 |
7 am |
9.5 |
8 am |
6.9 |
9 am |
4.3 |
10 am |
1.9 |
11 am |
0.5 |
12 pm |
0.2 |
1 pm |
1.3 |
2 pm |
3.2 |
3 pm |
5.5 |
4 pm |
7.5 |
5 pm |
8.7 |
6 pm |
8.9 |
7 pm |
8.2 |
8 pm |
7 |
9 pm |
5.6 |
10 pm |
4.4 |
11 pm |
3.7 |
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