Sunday, May28, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Old Harbor, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:36AMSunset 11:17PM Sunday May 28, 2017 4:09 PM AKDT (00:09 UTC) Moonrise 7:00AMMoonset 11:46PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 405 Pm Akdt Sun May 28 2017
Tonight..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue and Tue night..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Wed..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu through Fri..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Harbor, AK
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location: 56.97, -153.7     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 281257
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
457 am akdt Sun may 28 2017

Analysis and upper levels
Water vapor and IR satellite imagery continues to show a deep
stream of moisture advecting north across the gulf of alaska
between an upper low center southwest of kodiak island and high
pressure along the northeast pacific. There is a trough extending
over the western bering aleutians from eastern russia, with an
upper low centered over the western bering. Between the two
troughs is some weak upper level ridging over the central and
eastern bering aleutians.

At the surface, cloudy conditions persist during the overnight
and morning hours as the above mentioned moisture stream continues
to flow over southeast alaska. Radar imagery and observations
show persistent rainfall along the northern gulf coast prince
william sound area, western parts of cook inlet, and over the
southern kenai. Whereas areas along the lee side of the chugach
mountains remain downsloped and on the drier side. Gusty southeast
flow during the overnight hours was observed through turnagain
arm and the knik river valley, as well as down-inlet small craft
gusts over cook inlet and a small craft winds over prince william
sound and the northern gulf. Some showery conditions over the
southwest mainland have persisted overnight and into the morning
as the upper low near kodiak shifted northward slightly. Further
west, a low over the western bering and associated front
transitioning from the western aleutians bering to the central
aleutians bering continue to bring rain and gusty winds to the
area this morning.

Model discussion
The main challenge in the forecast through Monday remains the
timing of the front moving from kodiak island and into the
southcentral mainland. Models are in good agreement with the
general synoptic pattern through the short term. However there
are some minor differences still on how the low pressure system
near kodiak lifts north today through Monday, and when the
precipitation will begin to taper off over parts of southcentral
alaska. Only minor changes were made as trends continue to bring
the main frontal passage across southcentral late Sunday night
into Monday morning.

Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will likely persist
throughout the day today. There is some uncertainty regarding the
turnagain arm gusts making it into west anchorage again today.

Conceptually chances seem less likely with the stronger down-
inlet gradient, however a small increase to the instability over
the area can cause them to pull into west anchorage again today.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
An upper level low and negatively tilted trough will lift northward
across the western gulf today, keeping the area of best upward
vertical motion, moisture advection, and low level upslope flow
centered over the eastern kenai peninsula western prince william
sound. Thus, expect the steady rain (heavy at times) to continue
from seward up to whittier. The northward progression of the low
will also spread heavier rain into eastern prince william sound
and keep rain going in the homer kachemak bay area. Snow levels
remain quite low, generally 1500 to 2000 feet where precipitation
has been falling. Thus, could see some wet snow mixed in in the
hills near homer this morning along with some light snow
accumulation through the top of thompson pass near valdez.

Strong southeast flow and stabilizing conditions (as temps aloft
warm) will keep most inland locations dry. The exception will be
the western susitna valley where upslope along the alaska range
will produce some light precip. This will change tonight through
Monday as the low continues northward, passing west of cook
inlet. This will shift flow to a more southerly flow, spread deep
moisture inland, and destabilize the mid upper levels once again.

The sweet spot for precip will be along the eastern periphery of
the low center from cook inlet to the susitna valley. Rain and
showers will spread northward overnight tonight into Sunday
morning, with the most likely location of steady rain in the
susitna valley. Expect some breaks of Sun to develop in the
afternoon as the low exits northward, but with a moist and
unstable atmosphere scattered showers will reform and persist
into the evening.

Meanwhile, rainfall will diminish or taper off completely through
the day Monday for the eastern kenai and prince william sound
regions. The widespread small craft winds across the northern
gulf and prince william sound will rapidly diminish tonight
through Monday morning.

In the wake of the upper level low Monday night, there will be
partial clearing (at a minimum). With light winds this will be
another cold night. For areas that clear out completely
temperatures will likely drop to near freezing.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2 Sun and mon)...

cloudy, cool, and showery conditions will persist today before
some clearing and drying starts late Monday. A cold upper level
low just west of kodiak this morning will track through the area
today. Ongoing showers over inland portions of bristol bay will
spread north and increase in coverage through the day as the low
moves overhead. The upper level low will help to increase
instability and provide a forcing mechanism for some more isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. This low will also help
to keep a southeast to northwest gradient over much of the area
(as has been the case the past few days). This will allow the
favored gaps to remain gusty once again today.

By mon, the upper level low will lift to the north of the area by
late in the day. As it moves into the lower kuskokwim valley and
the delta, it will center the thunderstorm potential over these
areas, especially along higher terrain. By Mon evening, skies
will start to clear over bristol bay as winds diminish. This will
set the stage for Tue to be one of the sunnier, warmer, and drier
days than the area has seen for some time.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2 Sun and

a tale of two weather pattens persists over the bering. In the
east, a sharp ridge of high pressure is keeping conditions calm
with some marine stratus. The marine stratus has been compressed
overnight and some places from st paul over to the alaska
peninsula will see some patchy fog and light drizzle today and
tomorrow morning. Out west, a tightly wrapped low and associated
warm occluded front dominate the scene. The low itself has some
gale- force wind gusts around its center. Along the front,
southeasterly small-craft winds become westerly as you get near
kiska. Light to moderate rain will continue to accompany the
entire system as it more or less stalls over the area. The ridge
to the east is halting any real progression to the pattern. A new
piece of north pacific energy will move quickly from south to
north on Monday. This will bring rain to dutch harbor and help to
displace the ridge.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Beginning the extended forecast period Sunday evening, there will
be a dynamic shortwave trough lifting north from kodiak island
with an extensive upper ridge extending from the southwest united
states mainland to the yukon. Another, much lower magnitude
shortwave ridge will be across the bering sea. As is typical in
this pattern, there will be a frontal zone moving into the north
gulf coast and prince william sound along with extensive rain
along the coast. With a negative tilt to the upper trough, there
will be rather efficient cross-barrier downslope drying across the
coastal mountains and the chugach mountains. By Monday morning,
this shortwave trough will be lifting into the interior part of
alaska, with a south to north drying trend through the day as
showers become more scattered.

Uncertainty develops after Monday as all global numerical models
simulate the development of a broad low developing over the north
pacific then moving into the southern gulf of alaska. Here, the
details matter, and the ECMWF and canadian gdps are depicting a
slightly farther south track than the more north gfs. The slower
solutions delay the progression of a front moving toward the coast
by an entire day and a half compared to the more bullish gfs.

However, the pattern by mid week is rather similar in all models
with extensive coastal precipitation with extensive clouds and
mountain precipitation inland. For now, the wpc approach was
favored (i.E., a blend of ensemble means which are better at
dealing with uncertainty and will take a more middle ground
approach). This means southern alaska should anticipate a return
to cloudy weather by Tuesday, although with this downslope
pattern, expect temps to return back to normal if not slightly
above normal. For inland areas, while uncertainty exists, these
patterns tend to be rather dry and strong east to southeast upper
flow results in efficient downslope drying.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning... 130.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Tp
southcentral alaska... Seb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mo
long term... Mc

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 82 mi70 min SSW 4.1 G 6 47°F 44°F1006.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Alitak, AK
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)
Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Jap Bay, Alaska
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Jap Bay
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Sun -- 12:55 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:44 AM AKDT     10.17 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:34 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:00 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:37 AM AKDT     -2.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:04 PM AKDT     7.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:33 PM AKDT     1.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:51 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Moser Bay (Trap Point), Alaska
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Moser Bay (Trap Point)
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Sun -- 12:57 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:10 AM AKDT     14.35 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:35 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:02 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:16 AM AKDT     -3.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:30 PM AKDT     10.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:53 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:12 PM AKDT     2.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.