Sunday, June24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Harbor, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:17AMSunset 11:46PM Saturday June 23, 2018 9:14 PM AKDT (05:14 UTC) Moonrise 4:24PMMoonset 1:40AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 300 Pm Akdt Sat Jun 23 2018
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming sw 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sun night..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Mon..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue..E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed through Thu..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Harbor, AK
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location: 56.97, -153.7     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 240036
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
436 pm akdt Sat jun 23 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The flow pattern aloft is features a jet stream well to the south
of the aleutians, which keeps most of the active weather and
system development away from our area. Two developing low centers
are still close enough to affect our weather. One is associated
with a shortwave trough in the active east-asian jet, while the
other is further downstream in the southern gulf of alaska.

Another weaker decaying low is spinning over the central bering
sea. Ridging over the yukon is nudging into alaska somewhat, but
it is a dirty ridge with plenty of mid-level moisture underneath.

Despite all these large features being further away from
southcentral, a smaller weaker feature will be the focus for
active weather in the short term.

A shortwave trough progressing eastward over the copper river
basin is kicking off convective showers from the wrangells to the
talkeetna mountains. Otherwise, mostly cloudy conditions and light
winds encompass most of southcentral alaska with temperatures in
the 50s to mid 60s.

Model discussion
Synoptically there are no huge differences between models.

However, all the differences in solutions between models come
from mesoscale differences in how they handle the easterly waves
in the flow pattern. Despite the differences in wave timing and
instability, it looks like there will be one wave today, and
another on Sunday, with the shower and thunderstorm activity
staying mainly confined to the copper river basin and susitna
valley. Some guidance suggests the convection popping off of the
talkeetnas will drift over anchorage, but with no instability down
over the cook inlet region, any of this precipitation should be
light.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will likely persist.

Conditions could approach mfr late tonight through Sunday morning
depending on how much shower activity approaches the airport.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (tonight through
Monday night)...

a fairly quiet pattern has set up over the coastal areas gulf
with weak ridging building over the southern half of the zone
leading to mostly dry conditions and periods of sunshine in the
afternoon. Areas further north will see more unsettled weather as
a series of easterly waves will push through this evening and
tomorrow bringing increased cloud cover and showers with isolated
thunderstorms across the copper river basin. Thunderstorm
development will be rather limited this afternoon and evening as
pre-existing cloud cover acted to suppress surface heating and
instability. A few showers over the talkeetna mountains may drift
southwest tonight bringing a chance of rain to the mat-su and
anchorage bowl areas late tonight and early tomorrow morning,
otherwise these areas are expected to remain mostly dry through
the forecast period. Thunderstorm activity should more pronounced
tomorrow afternoon over the copper river basin as instability
looks to be a bit more favorable and line up with the next
easterly wave pushing through. Convection will start out over the
higher terrain including the alaska range, wrangells, and the
talkeetnas but is expected to move west-southwest through the
evening bringing shower and thunderstorm chances to low lying
areas, even including the northern susitna valley.

On Monday, models continue to show westerly propagating energy
pulsing through the copper river basin bringing continued showers
and possible thunderstorms to the area, though the models are
struggling with how quickly and exactly where these easterly waves
will move. Further south, a front sweeping east across the
aleutians will begin to move into the southern gulf kodiak area by
Monday evening bringing increased winds and rain to that region.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
Increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms will be the
theme as we head into early next week. For this evening, a ribbon
of vorticity extending from a bering seas low combined with
daytime heating and orographic lift has resulted in some showers
developing across the region. As instability continues to
build maintain itself over the next few hours, we can't rule out a
stray thunderstorm or two along the alaska range.

Look for more of the same with somewhat higher chances for
showers and thunderstorms east of the kilbuck mountains and north
of the nushagak mountains for Sunday and Monday, as this region
will be influenced by a thermal ridge attempting to build
southwest while easterly waves cross the region. Meanwhile, an
approaching bering seas front looks to move ashore by Tuesday
morning for the bristol bay region, bringing increasing chances
for rain.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
A slow-moving area of surface low pressure will trek eastward
along just north of the chain over the next few days, sending a
front towards the akpen bristol bay region. Multiple mid-level
lows pinwheeling around the pribilof islands will add some upper
support to also foster shower development. Thus, look for a
generally wet pattern to continue over the next few days with
winds remaining below gale force.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long wave pattern across the state will bring a persistent
pattern of diurnal showers inland and periods of light rain across
the bering and gulf of alaska. The low pressure center will
reside near the alaska peninsula during the long range forecast. A
surface low organizes Tuesday night as two strong waves of energy
merge together as they wrap around the core of the low. This will
send a relatively weak front to the southern mainland on
Wednesday with lingering showers through the end of the week as
the organized low slowly fills while it spins near the alaska
peninsula. The to the west of this system, low clouds and patchy
fog will be the main theme for the western aleutians and bering as
a ridge builds from the north pacific. Only minor changes were
made for updates as models are in relatively good agreement with
the synoptic pattern through the end of next week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ml
southcentral alaska... Kvp
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Pd
long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK 29 mi44 min W 2.9 G 8 51°F 1019.5 hPa
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 70 mi84 min W 1.9 G 1.9 49°F 50°F1 ft1019.5 hPa (-0.4)42°F
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 82 mi50 min E 4.1 G 6 49°F 48°F1018.7 hPa

Wind History for Alitak, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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Tide / Current Tables for Jap Bay, Alaska
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Jap Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:00 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:21 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:29 AM AKDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:41 PM AKDT     5.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:59 PM AKDT     2.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:36 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:13 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.17.464.22.41.10.40.41.12.43.955.75.85.44.43.42.62.32.63.65.16.77.9

Tide / Current Tables for Moser Bay (Trap Point), Alaska
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Moser Bay (Trap Point)
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:01 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:22 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:07 AM AKDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:07 PM AKDT     8.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:38 PM AKDT     3.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:38 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:15 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.611.19.67.34.72.40.90.30.72.34.46.47.88.48.17.15.64.33.43.34.268.310.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.