Friday, September22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Harbor, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 7:58PM Friday September 22, 2017 4:12 PM AKDT (00:12 UTC) Moonrise 8:54AMMoonset 7:31PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 307 Pm Akdt Fri Sep 22 2017
.small craft advisory tonight and Saturday night...
Tonight..SW wind 25 kt becoming ne 10 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
Sat..NE wind 10 kt. S end of the strait, ne wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 5 ft. Rain.
Sat night..NW wind 15 kt. S end of the strait, W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
Sun and Sun night..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Mon..S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Harbor, AK
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location: 56.97, -153.7     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 222358
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
358 pm akdt Fri sep 22 2017

Analysis and upper levels
The upper level low is centered over norton sound with a sharp
trough digging south over the alaska peninsula. The jet stream is
running well south of the aleutian islands but then turns
northeast over the gulf of alaska then into southeast alaska. At
the surface there is an elongated low stretching from south of the
alaska peninsula northeast through the bristol bay region and
into the interior. Along and southeast of this low is where there
is good lifting and southwest flow producing the widespread rain
in south central alaska and parts of the southwest mainland of
alaska. High pressure in the western bering sea is producing some
gusty northerly winds over much of the bering sea with embedded
showers from the colder air aloft in this flow.

Model discussion
Models remain in good synoptic agreement overall. There is some
discrepancy in the way the complex low over the state this
weekend will act on its southern end. The GFS is a bit of an
outlier with a center just north of the tip of the alaska
peninsula while the nam, gem, and ecwmf all keep it near the far
eastern end of bristol bay by Monday morning. Forecasts reflect
the solution with the low in eastern bristol bay that the three
models are showing.

Aviation
Panc... The lower ceilings should improve this evening as winds
switch from a northerly direction to the southeast. The southeast
winds are expected to become gusty for awhile through the evening
but then become light again sometime after midnight. This brings
in the potential for some lower ceilings again but at this time it
looks like the winds a little bit above the surface will be
enough to keep the air mixed enough to diminish the potential of fog
or stratus. However, this also will increase the chances of there
being some low level wind shear with light surface winds and
stronger southeast winds by the 2000 ft level.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
An upper level shortwave continues to track from the south to
north through the south central alaska region before exiting to
the north by this evening. This feature continues to bring
widespread rain throughout our aor with the heaviest precipitation
along the northern coastal communities tonight. While, upstream
the next shortwave rotates around the base of the longwave trough
before tracking just south of kodiak island by late Saturday
afternoon. This synoptic feature is reflected at the surface as a
weak 991 mb low pressure system tracking near the east side of
kodiak island. As this low tracks north a barrier jet develops
along the north gulf coast by Saturday evening resulting in
easterly gale force winds. This brings another round of moderate
to heavy precipitation to the eastern kenai peninsula and northern
coastal communities through the weekend. Therefore, the flood
warning will remain in effect through Monday with continued high
water levels on kenai lake and the kenai river aided by the
release of water from the snow glacier dammed lake. Meanwhile, as
the southeasterly to easterly winds strengthen during Saturday,
look for downsloping conditions to begin for the anchorage bowl and
the upper western kenai peninsula area. This produces drier
conditions for the aforementioned region due to the cross barrier
flow. By Sunday the low pressure system moves over the eastern
kenai peninsula with the associated frontal boundary falling
apart as it moves inland. Overall the south central alaska region
will have wet conditions with normal fall temperatures through
the weekend.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Remnants of an old front stretch across an area from bristol bay
to the alaska range. This is bringing rain to the area that will
be reinforced by a low heading towards the alaska peninsula
tonight. This low will also cause rain to spread across the rest
of southwest alaska that will additionally be aided by an upper
level low near the kuskokwim delta coast. A new surface low will
then develop Saturday night near the kuskokwim delta coast and
track towards bristol bay on Sunday.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
High pressure will dominate the western bering sea through the
weekend bringing northerly winds with minimal rain to the majority
of the bering sea and aleutian islands. The exception will be the
eastern bering sea and alaska peninsula with the weakening front
over the peninsula this evening and the low that will track
through the eastern bering sea Sunday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Beginning the extended period forecast Sunday evening, with an
upper level low tracking into the eastern bering sea and bristol
bay area, then crossing the alaska peninsula and heading back into
the north pacific Tuesday. Model guidance struggles with this
feature as it progresses into the later part of next week. Some
solutions bring the upper low into the panhandle by the end of
next week, where others curve it into the western gulf of alaska as
early as Thursday afternoon. As can be expected, the surface
features are also showing a decent spread in their solutions,
keeping lower confidence in the forecast for this time frame. What
can be said with some certainty is that there could be a window
of slightly drier conditions during the early part of next week.

Rain will then put an end to these briefly drier conditions by
mid-week, as the north pacific system pushes a front into
south central alaska and parts of the southwest mainland through
the end of the week.

The potential for gusty winds developing along the gulf of alaska coast
and cook inlet region will also largely depend on which model
solution pans out. Depending on the track of the surface low from
the north pacific and into the gulf mid-week, there is some
potential that we can see an increase of gusty northeasterly winds
over the cook inlet and shelikof strait areas, and or gusty
easterly winds along the north gulf coast.

Further west, high pressure will try to build into the western
bering sea and aleutians through the end of next week when it
starts getting shoved east by a trough tracking in from the west.

Models are loosely showing the track of this next front pushing
into the western aleutians by the end of next week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Flood warning 121 125.

Marine... Gale 119.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ez
southcentral alaska... Pd
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dk
long term... Tp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK 29 mi43 min S 11 G 13 51°F 51°F1003.8 hPa
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 70 mi83 min SW 12 G 14 50°F 50°F4 ft1002.2 hPa (+0.0)50°F
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 82 mi43 min SSW 15 G 18 56°F 51°F1003 hPa

Wind History for Alitak, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Jap Bay, Alaska
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Jap Bay
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Fri -- 03:35 AM AKDT     8.44 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:00 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:40 AM AKDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:54 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:45 PM AKDT     8.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:12 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:31 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:06 PM AKDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
35.27.18.38.47.55.93.81.90.70.51.43.15.27.28.58.88.16.64.52.30.700.4

Tide / Current Tables for Moser Bay (Trap Point), Alaska
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Moser Bay (Trap Point)
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:01 AM AKDT     11.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:02 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:19 AM AKDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:56 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:11 PM AKDT     12.54 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:14 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:32 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:45 PM AKDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.55.68.811.11211.49.674.11.70.60.92.85.68.811.412.512.110.57.94.82.10.3-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.