Saturday, October21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sitka and, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 5:35PM Saturday October 21, 2017 7:45 AM AKDT (15:45 UTC) Moonrise 8:44AMMoonset 6:03PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ032 Northern Chatham Strait- 402 Am Akdt Sat Oct 21 2017
Today..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
Sun..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue..S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sitka and , AK
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location: 57.04, -135.39     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 211429
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
629 am akdt Sat oct 21 2017

Synopsis A storm force front will move northward into the
southeast gulf today and begin to weaken. Its parent low will
move into the southeast gulf and then slowly drift toward baranof
island through Sunday.

Short term A storm force front will lift north into the
southeast gulf this morning and steadily weaken as it continues
north and west across the eastern gulf. Rain bands, some moderate
will lift north across the southern panhandle as well. There is
still some disagreement with how this complex system evolves. The
ecmwf has been stubborn with an impactful wave extending along the
far eastern flank of the front. While NAM and GFS mos have reduced
wind speeds along the coast, given the strong possibility of this
wave from the ecmwf, we feel no reason to yank gusty winds of 40
to 45 mph from sitka, craig, and hydaburg, and in fact, we have
added ketchikan and metlakatla as well for today.

Some scattered rain showers still persist across the panhandle,
with some mix to snow reported around yakutat and the haines and
south klondike. But no accumulation has been reported or is
expected at sea level. And only minor accumulations in the high
country along both roads.

As the low enters the southeast gulf this morning, confidence has
increased in it stalling today and very slowly beginning to move
to baranof island by Sunday. Therefore, we have delayed the onset
of southerlies across much of the northern and north-central
panhandle until late Sunday. And while we are not expecting gusts
to 40 mph for tonight and Sunday, we do expect some gustiness to
25 or 30 mph to follow the system as it moves inland. At some
point late today, the system begins to occlude. This will allow
precipitation to become more showery tonight and remain such
through the weekend. As winds retreat to the far north Sunday
night, winds elsewhere lighten as an intervening ridge settles
across southeast before the next significant system on Monday.

Finally, lightning detected along the front could potentially
spread into the southern portions of 310 later this morning, but
we think the stronger support for thunderstorms will arrive into
the southeast gulf this evening.

The 00z canadian nh and the 06z NAM provided support for changes
made to the forecast, mainly for late Saturday night into Sunday
night. Forecast for today still holds. Confidence has improved for
Saturday night and Sunday. Moderate to high confidence still holds
for today.

Long term Monday through Saturday... A very active and wet
pattern appears ready to set up through the next week. We'll
start off with a shortwave developing Monday over the western
gulf out of a parent trough positioned over the bering sea and
western coast of mainland alaska. Originally, there was quite a
bit of model uncertainty regarding the surface low that develops
with this feature. However, the GFS and canadian runs from 00z
this evening are agreeing more with the ECMWF solution, which has
also had more run to run consistency. According to the models, the
surface low will develop out of the south-central gulf and lift
northeast across the panhandle late Monday into Tuesday. An
associated weather front with this system will also lift north
beginning Monday, bringing some stronger winds and increased
precipitation across the panhandle. Due to a more southerly
origin with this low, we'll expect it to be more subtropical in
nature, so we should see the snow level rise with the passing of
this system.

After Tuesday, models are still having a tough time agreeing on
the development of certain surface features, so we opted not to
change much of the forecast after this point, using mainly wpc
guidance for any consistency changes.

We're also monitoring the extratropical transition of typhoon lan
over the course of the next week. Models currently hint at a very
wet event for our area late in the week, mainly Thursday into
Friday, but as far as who will get the more significant amounts of
precipitation is still to be determined.

Aviation Most complex tafs still are found in the southern
reaches of our area from sitka southeast along the coast where
gusty winds and some mvmc conditions associated with
rain visibility and ceilings along with gusty winds and wind shear
make for a complex 24 hours.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind until 1 pm akdt this afternoon for akz027.

Strong wind from 10 am this morning to 4 pm akdt this afternoon
for akz023.

Strong wind until 4 pm akdt this afternoon for akz028.

Marine... Storm warning for pkz041.

Gale warning for pkz035-036-042-043.

Small craft advisory for pkz021-022-031-033-034-051-052.

Jwa voveris
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ITKA2 3 mi46 min 43°F 51°F989.6 hPa (-4.1)
PLXA2 - 9451054 - Port Alexander, AK 67 mi46 min Calm G 1 43°F 45°F989.5 hPa (-4.7)
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 94 mi46 min 41°F 53°F992.4 hPa (-2.5)

Wind History for Port Alexander, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sitka - Sitka Airport, AK3 mi53 minESE 9 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy44°F33°F65%989.6 hPa

Wind History from ASI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE75E6E7E8E9E9SE7SE9E8E11E7E9E7E8E9SE11SE12E12E7E10E11SE11E9
G18
1 day agoE4CalmCalmE3SE3S5S6S3SE3SE5SE9SE7E9S7S7S10S5S6W7E7E7E5E6E9
2 days agoE11
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E12E11E11SE10E10E6E10SE12E9E3E5CalmCalmN6CalmSE9CalmNE3SE5E5

Tide / Current Tables for Dog Point, Lisianski Peninsula, Sitka Sound, Alaska
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Dog Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:22 AM AKDT     9.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:12 AM AKDT     1.95 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:44 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:09 PM AKDT     10.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:42 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:02 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:44 PM AKDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.68.69.79.68.46.54.42.722.33.85.98.21010.810.48.86.43.71.4-0.1-0.40.52.5

Tide / Current Tables for Olga Point, Olga Strait, Sitka Sound, Alaska
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Olga Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:27 AM AKDT     9.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:26 AM AKDT     1.95 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:44 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:13 PM AKDT     10.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:42 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:03 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:58 PM AKDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.28.49.69.58.56.74.732.12.23.45.57.89.810.710.48.96.74.11.70.1-0.50.22.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.