Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hobart Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:15PM Thursday February 22, 2018 1:55 PM AKST (22:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:54AMMoonset 1:31AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ034 Frederick Sound- 420 Am Akst Thu Feb 22 2018
.small craft advisory this afternoon and evening...
Today..SE wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Tonight..SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow in the evening, then snow late.
Fri..S wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Fri night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..SE wind 20 kt becoming sw. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..SW wind 15 kt becoming ne. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hobart Bay, AK
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location: 57.22, -133.5     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 221553
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
653 am akst Thu feb 22 2018

Short term A gale force low will track southeast across the
panhandle today and is expected to produce heavy snow over
portions of southeast alaska. The decision was made to issue a
winter storm warning for this afternoon into early tomorrow
morning for juneau, douglas, petersburg, and wrangell based on
snowfall amounts models were depicting. Snowfall will generally
begin around 9 am this morning, with the heaviest amounts being
produced around 6 pm this evening. By late Friday evening,
lingering snow showers should produce minimal snow accumulations.

Our main concern for this morning was to focus on this storm. A
nam GFS canadian blend was used to make pressure changes over the
gulf. The progression of the front was also delayed by 3 hours,
with precipitation now expected to begin around 9 am local time
along the northeast gulf coast. Wind speeds over the gulf were
increased to a 40 kt westerly gale over the gulf. Winds on the
inside for both marine and land locations generally unchanged.

Maintained southerly gales over northern and southern lynn canal.

Did decreased winds slightly over northern stephens passage
vicinity young bay and kept gusts below 40 mph for skagway.

Pop and QPF were adjusted using a blend of the nam12 and the 3-hour
gfs, resulting in some timing changes as indicated above. Model
agreement on pop and QPF was very good and boosted confidence in
timing and locations expected to see precipitation over the short
term forecast period. Changes to temperatures and snow levels were
more problematic. Most locations across the panhandle were
within model spectrum spreads for the tonight period, with the
exception of juneau. Models wanted to keep juneau in the low to
mid 20 range, while the GFS mos was keeping juneau hovering at or
slightly above freezing. Modest warm air advection will accompany
this front and there will be an increase in temperatures. This and
the resulting impacts on the snow level has been the most
difficult part of the forecast and has been the case for the past
few days. High confidence that there will be some locations that
transition to a rain snow mix before any significant accumulations
occur - elfin cove, angoon, kake. Additionally, there will be
some places that see just rain - sitka, the outer coast of prince
of wales, and possibly ketchikan. In all cases, what snow that
does accumulate will have a fairly high water content and
difficult to clear where accumulations are more than a couple
inches. Used the canadian nh as a foundation for snow ratios. Heaviest
accumulations expected farther inland, from juneau south to the
petersburg area where around 8 inches are forecast. In these
locations, omega is maximized near, but slightly below the snow
growth zone. Storm totals will depend greatly on actual low level
temperatures below about 5000 feet elevation.

Confidence on timing is average trending above average. Confidence
in the actual location of the rain snow line, how it changes, and
storm total snowfall is below average.

Long term Saturday through Thursday... A much more active
pattern can definitely be expected for SE alaska. For the early
part of the long term on Saturday, we'll start off with a
developing shortwave out of mainland alaska that will strengthen
over the central gulf and impact the panhandle. Overall, our
confidence has increased regarding this feature, and deterministic
models have come into better agreement. Model 500 mb vorticity
and winds indicate additional strengthening from increasing
vorticity and jet dynamics. It appears to take a similar track as
some of our previous lows, and if we go off precedence, the
precipitation type with this system will most likely remain as snow,
and model 925 mb temperatures confirm our suspicions. The more
difficult aspect with this shortwave will be QPF or how much
precipitation we can expect. Due to the origin of this shortwave,
moisture may initially be lacking, but the marine environment may
alleviate this, as there appear to be relatively strong west,
southwesterlies aloft to advect in additional moisture.

On Sunday, model analysis continues to show this low weakening as
it tracks southeast along the panhandle and a weak ridge of high
pressure quickly building in behind Sunday night into Monday.

Another shortwave then appears develop Monday, again over the
central gulf, before possibly impacting the panhandle Monday
night. However, there is quite a bit of disagreement among the
deterministic models regarding surface features and timing. Seeing
this, we tended to gravitate towards wpc guidance Tuesday onward
to account for this uncertainty.

The main changes we made to the long term forecast consisted of
increasing chances for precipitation on Saturday and continuing
into Sunday. In addition, we increased winds over the gulf and
some of the inner channels Saturday night into Sunday as that
developing low mentioned previously strengthens and the pressure
gradient tightens between it and a high pressure over british
columbia, canada. We tended to gravitate towards the NAM for the
12z Saturday to 12z Sunday period, as models were in pretty good
agreement at this point. After this period, we mainly chose to use
wpc guidance and nbm analysis.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Winter storm warning from 3 pm this afternoon to 9 am akst
Friday for akz025-026.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz012-013-041>043-051-052.

Small craft advisory for pkz021-022-031>036.

Ss fritsch voveris
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FFIA2 - Five Finger, AK 8 mi56 min SE 13 G 15 34°F 1024.3 hPa (-2.3)
SDIA2 - South Douglas, AK 87 mi26 min SSE 8 G 8.9 33°F 1022 hPa
JNEA2 - 9452210 - Juneau, AK 89 mi38 min ESE 11 G 13 33°F 1022.9 hPa

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kake - Kake Airport, AK29 mi60 minE 710.00 miOvercast34°F32°F92%1026.5 hPa

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Last 24hrW3W3------NE7NE7NE5----NE6NE4----NE3--NE4NE3E4SE5E6E5--E7
1 day agoW4SW3------NE3E3----N4----N6N4NE6N5--NE6NE6--SE4--SW3W4
2 days agoSW5Calm--CalmNE3NE4NE4NE5NE5NE5--NE4E4--NE5NE6NE7NE6NE6NE5CalmCalmS3--

Tide / Current Tables for Cleveland Passage, Whitney Island, Frederick Sound, Alaska
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Cleveland Passage
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Thu -- 12:30 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:59 AM AKST     14.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:53 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:36 AM AKST     1.88 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:10 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:38 PM AKST     11.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:09 PM AKST     First Quarter
Thu -- 11:38 PM AKST     4.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.86.29.2121414.61412.19.46.43.72.223.25.4810.111.311.410.79.17.25.44.2

Tide / Current Tables for Hobart Bay, Stephens Passage, Alaska
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Hobart Bay
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Thu -- 12:31 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:55 AM AKST     14.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:52 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:38 AM AKST     1.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:10 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:36 PM AKST     11.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:09 PM AKST     First Quarter
Thu -- 11:36 PM AKST     3.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.669.1121414.613.811.8963.41.91.72.95.27.810.111.411.510.68.96.953.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.