Monday, May21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ugashik, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:51AMSunset 11:01PM Monday May 21, 2018 6:21 PM AKDT (02:21 UTC) Moonrise 10:54AMMoonset 1:47AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ugashik, AK
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location: 57.52, -156.07     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 220114
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
514 pm akdt Mon may 21 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The pattern that has been observed over the last week has no signs
of letting up as a long wave troughs persists over the bering sea
and southern mainland alaska. The upper level low that once lived
in the eastern bering has entered the southwestern gulf. This
system is setting the stage for several more fronts to advance
toward the northern gulf. These fronts are the cause of the dense
cloud cover and showers along the north gulf coast which are now
migrating into the western kenai peninsula. Trailing the trough is
a minimal ridge over the bering. West of the ridge, a second
trough is barreling toward the western aleutians.

A second surface low, stemming from kamchatka, is advancing
toward the western aleutians preceded by a strong front. The jet
stream skirting just south of the western aleutians is strong
along the frontal boundary and is reaching speeds of 150 kts
within the jet streak. The placement of the jet stream is helping
to intensify this surface low. The result is most locations in
the aleutians are experiencing surface winds exceeding 25 kts with
clouds and rain coating the chain behind the front.

Model discussion
Models initialized well and move forward in lock step through 48
hours. We begin to see some deviation in the GFS and nam,
especially in the western gulf, as the upper-level trough becomes
more negatively- tilted and deepens into the weekend.

Southcentral forecasters preferred the nam. The aleutian and
southwestern alaska forecaster preferred a primarily-nam solution
today, with just a hint of gfs.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions will persist under a persistent broken deck.

Late-day and evening winds along the turnagain arm will be
probable the next few days.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Widespread rain and cloud cover will continue from the kenai
peninsula to the copper river delta as a cross- barrier flow
continues over the coastal marine zones through Tuesday afternoon.

This is in response to a nearly stationary low pressure system in
the southern gulf pushing yet another front northward overnight.

Precipitation and cloud cover will be more widely scattered for
interior portions of southcentral alaska, including cook inlet,
as the general southeasterly flow creates downsloping winds off
the chugach mountains. A strengthening thermal trough over the
interior and high pressure building along the coastal ranges will
generate gusty south to southeast winds in turnagain arm, the knik
river valley, and along portions of the copper river during the
afternoon and evening hours Tuesday and Wednesday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The thermal trough stretched across southwest alaska today will
continue to bring a good potential for isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms this evening. The best chance for
thunderstorms looks to be along and just to the west of the
thermal trough axis stretching from the middle kuskokwim valley
south into the greater bristol bay area extending south to the
coast just to the east of dillingham. With instability diminished
on Tuesday, precipitation should remain showery and limited in
coverage. The same general pattern will continue on Wednesday,
although with inland shower coverage more isolated, and a
dissipating frontal system approaching the coast by Wednesday
night.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
An upper level ridge will track from west to east across the
aleutians and bering tonight, with a frontal system currently
tracking eastward over the western aleutians. The front will slow
and shear apart as it continues east Tuesday and Tuesday night
before stalling over the eastern bering and alaska peninsula
Wednesday and then dissipating Wednesday night. The large
vertically stacked parent low will follow, crossing the western
aleutians Tuesday afternoon and then continuing slowly east to the
south central bering through Wednesday night.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long term forecast begins Thursday with a weak surface low
rotating in the southern gulf spreading clouds and rain showers across
the gulf coast and most of southcentral. This system will slowly
fill in and die out, though persistent onshore flow will lead to
clouds and rain, especially along coastal areas on Friday. Another
low will rapidly move in from the west on Saturday providing no
real break in the weather for the gulf coast and no prolonged
periods of Sun and warm weather for the inland areas. This low
will remain in the gulf through most of the long holiday weekend
as a stubborn long wave ridge over the western us will continue
to direct systems north into the alaskan mainland. The pattern
doesn't look to be a total washout though, especially for more
inland areas, with breaks in between individual waves bringing
periodic dry weather, though coastal areas look to remain rather
cloudy and wet. Models do show this system slowly moving off to
the east on memorial day (Monday) providing a better chance of
decent weather for the holiday. High pressure looks to build in
over western ak for the later half of the weekend, though
afternoon showers thunderstorms should develop over the higher
terrain and may drift over more populated areas.

Out west, a long wave ridge will build in over the western bering
by the weekend bringing drier northerly flow to the western two-
thirds of the bering aleutians. There is some disagreement between
models with the next system coming into the western aleutians but
it appears the ridge looks to hold through most of the weekend.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ra ds
southcentral alaska... Tm dk
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Tp
long term... Kvp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 104 mi92 min NNE 27 G 31 42°F 42°F8 ft993.7 hPa (+2.0)39°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

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Tide / Current Tables for Kanatak Lagoon, Portage Bay, Alaska
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Kanatak Lagoon
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Mon -- 01:43 AM AKDT     2.95 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:47 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:51 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:17 AM AKDT     11.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:54 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:39 PM AKDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:50 PM AKDT     First Quarter
Mon -- 09:01 PM AKDT     9.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:52 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.43.233.95.77.91011.110.99.885.73.31.30.1-012.95.37.79.39.89.48.3

Tide / Current Tables for Lees Cabins, Wide Bay, Alaska
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Lees Cabins
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Mon -- 01:24 AM AKDT     2.85 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:47 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:52 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:17 AM AKDT     11.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:55 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:20 PM AKDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:50 PM AKDT     First Quarter
Mon -- 09:01 PM AKDT     10.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:52 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
42.93.14.36.18.310.211.311.19.87.85.32.80.8-0.201.33.35.889.5109.68.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.