Sunrise 5:27 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 3:55 PM   Moonset 4:15 AM

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PKZ022 Cross Sound- 304 Am Akdt Sat Apr 20 2024
Today - E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. Tonight - E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Sun - SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Sun night - E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Mon - NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Tue - W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Wed - W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 201345 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 545 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SHORT TERM
/Through Tonight/...Southeast Alaska remains under the influence a ridge of high pressure today that has been dominating our weather over the last several days. As it continues to move eastward away from the area, it will gradually loosen its fair weather grip over the area through the period. The vast majority of Panhandle areas will remain under partly cloudy to clear skies and have dry conditions through the period. Due to that, we expect high temperatures to warm nicely this afternoon, potentially breaking records, once again. A decaying front and a weak area of low pressure / a wave riding northward up it will approach and begin moving into the southern Panhandle toward the end of the short term forecast period, which will bring increasing clouds starting late this afternoon through tonight for the southern Panhandle and chances for light rain toward the late tonight / early tomorrow morning timeframe. Winds will remain on the lighter side with some sea breezes and land breezes through the period as the pressure gradient continues to relax over the eastern Gulf / Southeast Alaska region, all areas will receive widespread solar radiation during the day today, and most areas in the central and northern Panhandle will have clear to partly cloudy skies tonight for adequate radiational cooling.

Forecast confidence is above average through the period as deterministic models are in good agreement and ensemble member spread is narrow.

LONG TERM
A shift in the pattern is underway in the long range forecast, as more active weather returns to the panhandle Monday and potentially through the first half of the week - though active in this case means occasional chances of rain, rather than any strong organized systems.

Aloft the ridge which has been over the panhandle is slowly being shifted towards a more W/E axis as opposed to its previous N/S axis as an impulse of energy begins building a trough along a similar W/E axis to its south. Ultimately, this trough will succeed in advancing N, successfully displacing the ridge on Sunday. This will bring with it a weak occluding frontal band, and some chances of showers across the area. The dynamics with the system don't look all that impressive, given a distinct lack of upper or mid level support, and a lack of any significant amount of moisture. The possibility of cyclonic vorticity advection along the trough axis contributing to some enhanced precipitation (and possibly even an embedded wave within the front), which could move into the southern panhandle is a possibility. At this time though, that is far from set in stone, as the trough - if it builds slightly more than anticipated, could just as easily develop a wave which impacts Canada more than it does SE AK.

Afterwards, rapidly growing disagreement in the operational guidance, driven by the collapse of the organized steering flow aloft over SE AK, necessitates a turn towards reliance on ensembles.
A low over the Central Gulf - associated with the advancing trough, may attempt to veer inland towards SE AK. Should this happen, anticipate precipitation to overspread the panhandle. Conversely, if the low veers off in a different direction, SE AK could remain dry for Monday, aside from a few showers, and potentially through the remainder of the week. For the time being, chose to keep some chances of showers in the forecast on Monday - but the potential does exist for skies to be clearer than currently anticipated, should the relevant low not move into the area, and offshore flow take over. Confidence is starting to grow that Tuesday onwards, may favor drier weather - along with corresponding clearer skies, and greater diurnal shifts.

Made some changes to the sky and PoP grids to reflect the greater potential for drier weather Tuesday onwards, along with some minor changes to temperatures to increase the diurnal range.
Additionally did some work to reflect changes in winds based on the drier weather.

AVIATION
/Until 12Z Sunday/...VFR conditions reign supreme over SE Alaska once more through Saturday under the continuing presence of high pressure. Late Saturday night and Sunday morning will see some high cloud cover pushing into the southern panhandle with showers possible. Still no significant wind concerns, though localized stout afternoon sea breezes remain likely.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ651-652-661>664-671-672.

Canoe Cove, North Pass, Lisianski Strait and Inlet, Alaska, Tide feet

Dry Pass, Hill Island, Chichagof Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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