Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 7:36PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 6:34 PM AKDT (02:34 UTC) Moonrise 6:48AMMoonset 9:10PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ022 Cross Sound- 342 Pm Akdt Wed Mar 29 2017
.small craft advisory Thursday...
Tonight..SE wind 10 kt becoming sw 15 kt in the evening. Seas 7 ft. S swell. Rain showers in the evening.
Thu..SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Thu night..E gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
Fri..E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
Fri night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. S swell. Rain.
Sat..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
Sun..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Mon..E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican, AK
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location: 57.85, -136.42     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 292341
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
341 pm akdt Wed mar 29 2017

Short term /Wednesday night through Friday/ Troughs of low
pressure will continue to move across the area tonight into
Thursday. These will keep the showers going for majority of the
panhandle. Models have picked up on one of these troughs and are
in agreement that it will be of more impact than we were seeing
yesterday. The trough will approach the sitka area overnight and
increase winds over the outside waters some, along with a period
of moderate showers. This trough will keep isolated to scattered
showers going, namely over the northern half of the panhandle for
most of the day Thursday. 850mb temps cool some behind the trough,
this along with rates could incite some snow to mix in early
Thursday morning, but little to no accumulation is expected.

A gale force front will move across the gulf on Thursday with precip
reaching the outer coast in the early evening then spreading inland
through the night. This looks to be a warm system with almost all
areas getting rain. Southerly winds area wide will help with this
idea. The outer coast could see wind gusts of around 40mph with
the front while the inside areas could have gusts of 25-35mph.

Rainfall rates will be moderate to heavy at times. For locations
that have snowpack blocking drainage, there could be issues as the
snow melts and rainfall causes ponding of water on roadways. Snow
levels are expect to rise to around 3500ft over the southern
panhandle and to around 1500-2000ft over the north by Friday
afternoon. White pass could even see rain mixed in with these warm
temperatures. Snow level and temperatures were raised some to
reflect this idea. Widespread rainfall looks to continue through
Friday but winds will gradually ease.

Models were in good agreement over the next couple days. The 12z gfs
was not available for most elements, but it compared well with the
nam which was used for the minor adjustments made. Forecast
confidence is above average.

Long term Issued at 605 am Wednesday... /Thursday through
Tuesday night/ a high end gale force low is forecast to enter the
western gulf on Thursday. Gale force winds with the associated
front will arrive over outer coast on Thursday evening and extend
from CAPE suckling south past the dixon entrance. Peak conditions
expected on the inside late Thursday night with gales forecast
for clarence strait, sumner strait, southern portions of chatham
strait, and cross sound. Elsewhere on the inside, small craft
winds forecast except for northern lynn canal, where a parallel
gradient should result in winds 20 kt or less.

Precipitation from this front will arrive along the outer coast
late Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening. Significant low level
warm air advection associated with this front will push snow
levels higher, limiting snow to the higher elevations of the
highways.

Wpc, the 00z gfs, and the 12z ECMWF model runs presented moderate
to good agreement at 500 mb on the placement of troughs, short
waves, and upper level ridges. A ridge extending from bc southwest
to coastal waters west of washington state will become suppressed
over the weekend but then rebuild early next week. Temperatures
from Thursday into Friday were warmed slightly.

Confidence in the extended range forecast is average.

Ajk watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz052.

Small craft advisory for pkz022-033-041>043-051-053.

Ferrin/bezenek/fritsch
visit us at http://

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 24 mi47 min 41°F 46°F1008.9 hPa
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 27 mi25 min S 13 G 23 40°F 38°F
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 50 mi69 min ESE 2.9 G 6 42°F 1008.8 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--N12
G28
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G25
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G20
--N10------------------------------4
1 day ago--E9--E10
G20
--E15--Calm------------------------------N12
G22
2 days ago--E8--N12--NE12--E12------------------------------Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Canoe Cove, North Pass, Lisianski Strait and Inlet, Alaska
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Canoe Cove
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:19 AM AKDT     11.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:41 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:48 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:37 AM AKDT     -0.96 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:47 PM AKDT     10.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:40 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:47 PM AKDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:09 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.71011.2119.36.63.60.9-0.7-0.80.42.85.78.410.110.59.67.44.72.20.50.11.13.3

Tide / Current Tables for Dry Pass, Hill Island, Chichagof Island, Alaska
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Dry Pass
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:16 AM AKDT     11.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:40 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:47 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:38 AM AKDT     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:44 PM AKDT     10.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:40 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:48 PM AKDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:08 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.810.211.3119.36.63.61-0.6-0.80.535.98.510.310.69.67.54.82.30.60.21.23.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.