Sunday, September24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Elfin Cove, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 6:50PM Sunday September 24, 2017 3:04 PM AKDT (23:04 UTC) Moonrise 11:08AMMoonset 8:02PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ022 Cross Sound- 405 Am Akdt Sun Sep 24 2017
Today..E wind 15 kt becoming sw. Seas 5 ft. S swell in the afternoon. Showers.
Tonight..SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 5 ft. S swell. Areas of fog with visibility 1 nm or less late.
Mon..Light winds. Seas 5 ft. S swell. Areas of fog with visibility 1 nm or less in the morning.
Mon night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue..E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed..E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Thu..E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elfin Cove, AK
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location: 58.08, -136.57     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 241344
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
544 am akdt Sun sep 24 2017

Short term Sunday and Monday the remains of the weather
front moving through southeast alaska will continue to move across
the panhandle through Sunday morning in the northern panhandle and
into the afternoon for the southern panhandle as the front curves
back to the southwest. A weak low east of kodiak island will keep
near the gulf coastlines and continue to spin some showers in
central gulf coast, into early Monday.

The north central portion of the panhandle looks like the rain may
cease for roughly 12 to 18 hours, some pockets of clearing across
the panhandle are probably Sunday night so do expect fog develop
on the land which is rather moist from the rains and out over the

The southern panhandle will get another wave low that tracks
across haida gwaii into british columbia coastline Sunday night.

Believe the rains from this will spread over the southern part of
the panhandle and through by Monday afternoon.

The next system will be lifting out of the north central pacific
curving into the northeast gulf of alaska. Models solutions this
morning have a generally good agreement but some minor timing and
location issues. The low for the system will be south of kodiak
island with the triple point moving northward along roughly 140w
late Monday night. Think rain associated with the warm front will
spread north over the panhandle with the the main flow pattern
aiming the axis east of the yakutat area I think for Tuesday
onward. The moisture stream for this looks to extend several
hundred miles south.

Once todays front manages to push though the northern panhandle
the south winds will begin to blow northward through lynn canal
by Sunday afternoon so expecting a 25 kt small craft to develop
and continue through midnight.

Used a GFS with a little NAM nudge to today based on how it seems
to handle the expected pattern Sunday evening for the pops and
qpf. Little changes to the wind forecast into Monday.

Long term Big concern in the longer range is for a likely
atmospheric river event around mid to late week. Models are still
sorting out details on this but all indications are a significant
rain event is in store for at least part of the area. GFS and
ecmwf ensembles show precip water values 2-3+ standard deviations
above average with maximum on Wed and thu. Ended up using 18z gfs
to start long range for tue, then went with mainly wpc for tue
night onward.

With details such as where main frontal band will hang up while
some low pressure waves move N along it, confidence in where
heaviest rain will occur is no more than average, but it appears
somewhere over the NW half of the area will be the wettest during
midweek. Models hint that far SE may even dry out for a bit as
waves moving along the front push precip band back to the n
around Wed night and thu. Would expect significant rises on rivers
and streams where heaviest precip occurs, but too early to tell if
any flooding may occur. Will also need to watch out for potential
mudslides with ground fairly saturated from rain events occurring
before the midweek period.

For latter part of the long range, models differ on how fast main
trof moves out of the area, which will affect how quickly precip
diminishes. Keeping near climo pops for much of the area for next
weekend attm.

Aviation Ifr and MVFR conditions overnight into early Sunday
based on ceilings and visibilities. Along and just behind the
weather front ceilings of 300 to 900 feet and then a second layer
from 1500 to 3000 feet. Light rain with some accompanying
mist light fog has visibilities 1 to 4 miles across. Expect
conditions to improve during the day and into the evening, as an
area of drier air will move over the northern and central
panhandle late tonight. Which could lead to some fog developing
late from kupreanof island to glacier bay along with some patchy
fog near yakutat and haines as well. The far southeastern
panhandle will stay in the rain as the next wave moves across
haida gwaii.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz012-036-052.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz041.

99 bezenek
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 9 mi54 min WSW 8.9 G 21 51°F 51°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 14 mi46 min 54°F 54°F1009.2 hPa
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 44 mi39 min SSE 2.9 G 6 55°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
Last 24hr--5--5--5--6----Calm--------------------Calm--Calm
1 day ago----Calm5--5--W7--5----------------------Calm--5
2 days ago--Calm--W7--W7--W8--W8----------------------NW5--Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Bingham, Cross Sound, Alaska
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Cape Bingham
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Sun -- 04:03 AM AKDT     9.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:56 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:56 AM AKDT     2.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:07 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:57 PM AKDT     10.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:58 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:02 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:33 PM AKDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for North Inian Pass, Cross Sound, Alaska Current
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North Inian Pass
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Sun -- 01:27 AM AKDT     2.91 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:44 AM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:55 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:56 AM AKDT     -5.55 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:52 AM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:07 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:36 PM AKDT     2.51 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:50 PM AKDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:57 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:16 PM AKDT     -5.99 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 09:01 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:28 PM AKDT     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.