Tuesday, April24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Karluk, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 9:50PM Tuesday April 24, 2018 4:24 PM AKDT (00:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:57PMMoonset 3:36AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 352 Pm Akdt Tue Apr 24 2018
.small craft advisory through Wednesday night...
Tonight..SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
Wed..S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Wed night..S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Thu..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu night..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Fri..SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Sat through Sun..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Karluk, AK
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location: 58.29, -154.27     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 241302
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
502 am akdt Tue apr 24 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The synoptic pattern early this morning includes a large upper
level low extending over the bering, aleutians and portions of the
north pacific and a very strong southwesterly jet stream
currently aimed at the alaska peninsula. A developing triple
point low currently west of CAPE newenham and along the left exit
region of the jet lifts north toward the kuskokwim delta coast as
it rapidly strengthens into a compact yet powerful feature. The
associated frontal system is currently spreading precipitation
across southwest alaska, kodiak island, the kenai peninsula and
the western gulf. Further north in southcentral alaska
southeasterly pressure gradients and winds continue to increase in
advance of the approaching frontal system.

Model discussion
Models remain in good synoptic agreement regarding the current
system and subsequent cool upper level trough that sets up over
mainland alaska Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast challenges
include the fine scale details of the spatial extent of the
strongest of southeasterly gap winds and temperature and
precipitation type questions for the susitna valley.

Aviation
Panc... The primary concern for panc today is the increasing
southeasterly flow across the chugach mountains. Rapidly
increasing pressure gradients ahead of an incoming frontal system
will bring increasingly strong turnagain arm winds to area this
morning through this afternoon. The pattern looks favorable both
for the increasingly strong southeast surface winds to continue
bending north and over the airport and much strong winds not far
off the surface to create significant wind shear concerns as well.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A fall-like storm is moving into southcentral alaska today
bringing strong winds and rain, with snow at higher elevations.

The strong winds will increase across the area and a high wind
warning remains in effect for turnagain arm and the higher
elevations around anchorage. Strong winds will also increase in
town in anchorage as well as the palmer-wasilla area with peak
winds likely occurring from late-morning through mid-afternoon.

The copper river basin will also see these increasing winds with
gusts to 45 mph along the copper river.

Rain will mostly downslope out on the lee of the mountains in the
strong southeast flow, but as the front passes through late this
afternoon, it will likely bring some rain into the lee side as
well. Rain will be heavy along the north gulf coast and seward may
see around 2 inches of rain from overnight Monday night through
Tuesday evening.

Thompson pass is an interesting scenario as temperatures look to
remain cold enough for snow and there is also some stiff southeast
wind in the 20 to 30 mph range. However, the warmer southeast
winds tend to both lessen the precipitation rate and keep the
blowing snow from reducing visibilities as much as cold advection
winds from the northeast. Therefore, while there will be some snow
and wind through thompson pass, the direction of the wind (and
being that it is late april) is expected to mitigate the impact
to the highway. The uncertainty is due to the potential for
increased precipitation to help cool the air and slightly colder
air may bring some increased snow accumulation to the highway and
start to interfere with visibility.

North of talkeetna this evening through overnight is also a region
that will see some accumulating snowfall as the colder air moves
in behind the front. Overnight snow accumulation for this area is
expected to be around 2 to 4 inches, but the southerly flow aloft
is a direction that could cause enhanced snowfall and therefore
could lead to higher amounts than currently expected.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
A deep and unseasonably strong upper level trough is situated
over the bering sea and will continue to dominate the pattern and
sensible weather through the forecast period. The upper trough
will dig further south this morning as a very strong 150 kt
southwesterly jet pushes north over the akpen and SW mainland.

This upper jet will support the development of a rapidly deepening
surface low over bristol bay and the kuskokwim delta coast. An
occluded front extending out from the low will sweep NE across
the SW mainland this morning through the evening bringing a large
swath of moderate to heavy precipitation as well as strong
southeasterly winds, which will switch to southwesterly as the
front passes through. Warm air ahead of the front will keep
precipitation rain at the surface but colder air filtering in
behind the front this afternoon and evening will lower snow levels
mixing in some snow at the surface, especially along the
kuskokwim delta coast. The upper low will continue to spin over
the bering on Wednesday as several shortwaves rotating around the
base of the low swing into the SW mainland, bringing scattered
rain and snow showers throughout the day and continued strong
southwesterly winds. A long gale force fetch will materialize over
the kuskokwim and bristol bays leading to high surf with water
levels at or slightly above highest astronomical tide levels
around Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday morning, though any
coastal flooding and beach erosion are expected to be minimal.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A large upper level low with numerous embedded shortwaves and
individual surface circulations will continue to bring widespread
rain showers to the bering and aleutians today through tomorrow
afternoon. Gale force west southwesterly winds will spread across
most of the southern bering and aleutians today as a surface low
shifts slightly north bringing the core of strongest winds
parallel along the island chain. By Wednesday the upper low will
slowly drift to the north and east allowing a shortwave ridge to
momentarily build in over the western bering aleutians. This will
bring a brief break in the weather as drier air filters in
leading to some clearing as well as a decrease in the wind
speeds.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long range forecast beginning Wednesday night is a
progressive pattern with a low spinning near the bering strait.

Embedded short waves rotating around the low brings continued
chances for precipitation across the southern mainland through
Friday, then lifts quickly north Friday night as the next strong
short wave races across the bering. This short wave initially
moves a surface low across the bering Thursday night, pushing to
the southwest coast Friday night.

There is high uncertainty in the extended forecast beyond Friday
as models greatly differ on the track and timing of fast paced
storm systems moving across the bering. Overall, the synoptic
pattern is dominated by a broad trough over the bering and an
eastern north pacific ridge which vies for northward extent into
southcentral. The ECMWF and its ensembles offered the best
continuity which maintains the ridge over the gulf through the
beginning of next week which keeps southcentral in a drier regime.

There is better agreement for the southwest and bering to have a
front moving across Saturday and Sunday.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... High wind warning for 101.

Marine... Gale warning 119 120 125 130 131 132 139 150 155 165 170
171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 180 351 352 414.

Synopsis and model discussion... Jer
southcentral alaska... Ez
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kv
long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 27 mi95 min SW 21 G 27 42°F 41°F6 ft998.6 hPa (+3.7)33°F
AUGA2 - Augustine Island, AK 90 mi55 min NW 18 G 25 43°F 996.6 hPa36°F
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK 96 mi55 min SSW 17 G 23 43°F 42°F1003 hPa

Wind History for Alitak, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Aguchik Island, Kukak Bay, Alaska
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Aguchik Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:34 AM AKDT     4.60 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:36 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:40 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:28 AM AKDT     11.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:57 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:14 PM AKDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:51 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:44 PM AKDT     11.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.497.35.74.74.75.56.98.610.1111110.18.46.13.71.911.32.857.710.111.6

Tide / Current Tables for Kukak, Kukak Bay, Alaska
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Kukak
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:33 AM AKDT     3.60 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:35 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:39 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:24 AM AKDT     10.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:56 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:13 PM AKDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:50 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:40 PM AKDT     11.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
108.56.64.83.83.74.66.28.29.910.910.89.88.15.83.51.60.81.12.64.97.61011.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.