Tuesday, June19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Karluk, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:15AMSunset 11:46PM Tuesday June 19, 2018 6:04 PM AKDT (02:04 UTC) Moonrise 11:16AMMoonset 12:34AM Illumination 41% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 335 Pm Akdt Tue Jun 19 2018
Tonight..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Wed..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed night..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu and Thu night..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri through Sat..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Karluk, AK
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location: 58.29, -154.27     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 200053
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
453 pm akdt Tue jun 19 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The upper level pattern has changed very little from yesterday
with the large upper level low in the eastern bering sea. The 250
mb jet stream remains well south of the aleutians and then turns
due south-to- north through the gulf of alaska and then to the
alcan border. What has changed is the surface low is now nearly
vertically stacked under the upper level low and has weakened
considerably. What remains of the front with this low stretches to
near the bering strait and then toward the brooks range. This has
allowed the pressure gradient over southern alaska to ease and
reduced the winds. The atmosphere in southwest alaska is a little
more unstable today being close to the cold core of the upper
level low center. This is allowing some showers to pop-up this
afternoon as well.

Model discussion
Models remain overall good agreement the next few days. The wave
that will develop in the gulf of alaska and move onshore Wednesday
evening through Thursday is farther west on the NAM and GFS than
canadian and ec models. The more open-wave structure of the
nam GFS seems more reasonable and was used for guidance in the
gulf and southcentral areas. Both GFS and NAM are indicating an
uptick in instability tomorrow for the kuskokwim delta and far
north copper river basin as compared to previous runs.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions will persist. Some southeast winds may move
over the terminal this evening into the overnight hours, but
should be much less than past days with winds being only being in
the 10 to 15 kt range.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska
Moist southerly flow aloft will continue through Thursday as the
synoptic pattern of an upper level low over the eastern bering and
ridging east of southcentral alaska remains in place. This pattern
will bring showery conditions to southcentral alaska that will be
amplified as various shortwaves move through the upper level flow.

One shortwave is pushing through the kodiak island area bringing
rain to the island that will last into Wednesday. Another will
push in over the kenai peninsula late Wednesday bringing more rain
to the area. It will then track north spreading rain to areas
from the susitna valley through prince william sound Wednesday
night into Thursday. Showers will then diminish moving into
Friday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
With the upper low persistently centered offshore of southwest
alaska, southeasterly flow at the surface and southerly flow
aloft will continue to stream moisture up into southwest alaska,
with small troughs rotating around the main low further enhancing
precipitation. The next of these shortwaves will lift north
across the western capes and kuskokwim delta this afternoon and
evening followed another trough further inland tracking the
greater bristol bay and kuskokwim valley late tonight and
Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon afternoon and evening a
broader trough rotating through and increasing general instability
will support showers across all of southwest alaska. Additional
troughs will continue spinning across the area through the end of
the week before the entire pattern starts to shift north.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
The upper level low centered over the eastern bering, alaska
peninsula and bristol bay area will remain in that general
location through Thursday before beginning to drift north Thursday
night and Friday. Troughs rotating south around the backside of
the low will move through the pribilof islands and eastern
aleutians while further west the general flow remains diffuse and
out of the west northwest through Thursday. On Friday, a frontal
system will approach the western aleutians.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7)
The long term forecast begins Friday night with the persistent
long-wave trough anchored over the eastern bering western
alaska. Upstream, an elongated ridge extends across the canadian
rockies north into the yukon and eastern alaska. Between the two,
an upper-level shortwave is moving northward through the gulf of
alaska. A more potent upper-level disturbance and surface low in
the northeast pacific is continuing toward the alaska peninsula.

Models are in fairly good agreement with the track of the low
moving toward the alaska panhandle for the weekend. As it does, a
surface ridge will lift northward across the gulf and into
southern and southwest alaska for Saturday, reducing any residual
onshore flow and producing a warming trend for the weekend.

However, the aforementioned shortwave will also move across the
region, providing enough instability to generate clouds and
showers. Scattered clouds and showers continue into Sunday as a
second, weaker shortwave moves through the interior of southern
alaska.

The overall pattern becomes more progressive by the end of the
weekend with a zonal jet stream south of the state bringing two
lows across the aleutians toward the northern gulf. The first will
slide from the western aleutians Saturday to the gulf by Monday
evening. The second will approach the central aleutians by Tuesday
afternoon. Although it is still a long way out and there is
significant model divergence by early next week, there is some
indication that the development toward a more progressive pattern
by the end of the weekend could shift the longwave pattern and
kick the persistent upper-level low over the bering to the east.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Flood advisory 145
marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ez
southcentral alaska... Dk
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Jr
long term... Tm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 27 mi75 min ENE 14 G 16 49°F 48°F2 ft1014.8 hPa (-0.7)46°F
AUGA2 - Augustine Island, AK 90 mi35 min SE 15 G 19 46°F 1018 hPa46°F
ALIA2 - 9457804 - Alitak, AK 96 mi47 min ESE 19 G 22 47°F 1014 hPa

Wind History for Alitak, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AKH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Aguchik Island, Kukak Bay, Alaska
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Aguchik Island
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Tue -- 01:29 AM AKDT     2.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:34 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:10 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:22 AM AKDT     12.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:15 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:55 PM AKDT     -0.82 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:24 PM AKDT     12.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:26 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
42.52.646.4911.212.512.310.88.25.12-0.1-0.80.12.45.58.711.312.812.711.49.2

Tide / Current Tables for Kukak, Kukak Bay, Alaska
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Kukak
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:29 AM AKDT     1.83 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:33 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:09 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:18 AM AKDT     12.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:14 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:55 PM AKDT     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:21 PM AKDT     12.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:26 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.522.13.66.18.811.112.312.110.584.92-0-0.70.32.65.68.711.312.612.4118.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.