Monday, October22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Excursion Inlet, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 5:36PM Sunday October 21, 2018 11:28 PM AKDT (07:28 UTC) Moonrise 5:27PMMoonset 3:39AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ013 Southern Lynn Canal- 1033 Pm Akdt Sun Oct 21 2018
Tonight..SE wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..N wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Mon night..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Tue..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
Tue night..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
Wed..SE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu..N wind 30 kt becoming se 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Fri..SE wind 15c kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Excursion Inlet CDP, AK
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location: 58.42, -134.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 212307
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
307 pm akdt Sun oct 21 2018

Short term A stalled front oriented north-south over the
eastern gulf has been producing heavy rain and strong winds over
yakutat for much of the day. The front is forecast to weaken later
tonight as a developing wave moves north along the frontal
boundary. Early afternoon observations indicate that this is
already happening. As the front wavers east and west, winds will
diminish significantly, as will the rain rates. The situk river is
currently at bankfull and is still rising. Current projections
are for the situk to continue to rise to near minor flood stage
later tonight. As the developing wave tracks north along the
frontal boundary, gale force southeasterlies over the eastern gulf
will expand south, resulting in strong wind gusts along the
southern outer coast from late tonight through Monday afternoon.

Additionally, heavy rain will move over the panhandle from the
south overnight even as the heavy rain ends over the northeast
gulf coast. Following close behind the developing wave is a
developing storm force low that is forecast to enter the eastern
gulf from the south on Monday night. This will result in more
strong winds along the outer coast. These winds will spread north
along the outer coast through Tuesday before diminishing Tuesday
night. High wind warnings are not out of the question at this
point, as minor variations in the track of the low with respect to
the coast could result in significant changes to wind speeds.

Lightning continues to be an issue. The airmass to the west of the present
stalled front is clearly convective as evidenced by satellite
imagery, and lightning has been detected all day in prince
william sound and the kenai peninsula. As the front associated
with the storm force low tracks north, the atmosphere east of 140w
will destabilize as well. In addition to aiding stronger winds
aloft to mix down to the surface, large scale ascent in the low to
mid levels and strong vorticity in the mid levels will likely
trigger significant thunderstorm activity along the eastern gulf
and outer coast. This potential has been included in the forecast
for Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Used a blend of NAM and the GFS with a little help from the ecmwf
for updates to pressure. Used GFS as a foundation for wind grids
with the net effect over the gulf being an increase in wind speed.

Changes to wind on the inside mostly local effects with some minor
increases to wind speeds. Overnight lows and daytime highs raised
by a few degrees. Temperatures will be a struggle due to increased
mixing, including during the overnight hours, and locations that
do see increased winds will see warmer temps as well. Pop from a
blend of GFS and NAM with some local edits based on mos. QPF from
nam with local edits. Overall forecast confidence is average.

Long term Wednesday to Saturday as of 10 pm Saturday a
broad complex pattern of upper level troughs are rotating about
general low aloft over the far western gulf of alaska, the end of
the week the complex shifts south to the far southwestern gulf.

At the surface the active weather pattern persists. A moderate to
strong low in the lower 970 mb range moves across the central
gulf. Model solution still having some minor disagreements to
strength and position, we made minimal changes at the present,
though it may get fined tune over the next day or so. Look for
gale force winds with the front and wet conditions for the coastal
area. The front is weakening slightly as it moves through the
inner channels so heavier amounts will linger more over the
outer coastal region.

A brief break as the following showers band impact eastern gulf
and coastal areas. The next low develops over eastern pacific and
then curves north on a fairly similar storm track through the
gulf to the north-northwest. At present, the various models
solution are still agreeing on a significant storm feature with a
depth of sub 960 mb for Wednesday night. They are also agreeing
on placement better than yesterday as well. So we have deepened
the storm just a little more, and increased the winds in the gulf
around the low and frontal band to storm force, the seas with the
frontal band area could be impactful as well with a fair section
of 25+ foot wave heights. The low track appears to be far enough
west at the present to make this more of a marine issue and not
slam the coastal communities as hard as if it was closer to the
panhandle. They may see strong wind headlines as the date of the
event is closer.

The pattern after the low and front from late Thursday to the
weekend is confused with no strong signal from any of the
operational solution and wpc solution just hangs onto a general
area of low pressure over the central gulf. Which will mean a
continued stream of short waves and frontal band into the
panhandle for the end of the week an the weekend. Long range
forecast confidence is average to moderate.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind from 1 am akdt Monday through Monday afternoon for
akz027.

Strong wind until 1 am akdt Monday for akz017.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz036-041>043-051.

Small craft advisory for pkz011-021-022-033>035-052.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz053.

Fritsch voveris bezenek
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK 4 mi79 min E 8.9 G 14 48°F 1008.1 hPa42°F
PTLA2 8 mi37 min ENE 12 G 21 47°F 1009.8 hPa38°F
JNEA2 - 9452210 - Juneau, AK 26 mi47 min E 2.9 G 4.1 47°F 45°F1010.5 hPa
SDIA2 - South Douglas, AK 28 mi41 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 47°F 1009.7 hPa45°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Juneau, Juneau International Airport, AK16 mi36 minNE 410.00 miLight Rain46°F44°F93%1010 hPa

Wind History from AJN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE13SE15E15E12E14
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Tide / Current Tables for Barlow Cove, Mansfield Peninsula, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Barlow Cove
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Mon -- 12:03 AM AKDT     14.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:55 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:14 AM AKDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:51 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:25 PM AKDT     15.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:34 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 05:40 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:38 PM AKDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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14.413.711.68.452.30.91.53.87.210.913.915.515.413.510.46.530.80.52.35.69.412.7

Tide / Current Tables for Lincoln Island, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Lincoln Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:13 AM AKDT     15.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:55 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:21 AM AKDT     1.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:52 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:35 PM AKDT     16.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:34 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 05:40 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:45 PM AKDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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15.114.712.79.562.91.31.63.87.21114.216.116.314.611.57.63.81.30.72.35.59.412.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.