Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Excursion Inlet, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:38AMSunset 3:08PM Friday December 15, 2017 5:07 AM AKST (14:07 UTC) Moonrise 6:33AMMoonset 3:27PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ013 Southern Lynn Canal- 420 Am Akst Fri Dec 15 2017
.small craft advisory late tonight...
Today..S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers early in the morning, then scattered rain showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 6 ft. Rain in the evening, then rain and snow late.
Sat..S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
Sat night..S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow showers.
Sun..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Excursion Inlet CDP, AK
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location: 58.42, -134.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 142349
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
249 pm akst Thu dec 14 2017

Short term through Saturday night rather active short range
forecast today. A strong front is currently moving through the
panhandle today that brought heavy rain (upwards of 1 to 2 inches
overnight) and gusty winds (30 to 35 mph) to many areas last
night and early this morning. The front will continue its eastward
trek into canada this afternoon and evening with winds and precip
diminishing through that time.

Behind the front SW flow is the main pattern with shower activity
being the norm. However there is a an area of vorticity near 55n
150w that will rotate into the NE gulf by late tonight that will
enhance and possibly bring better organization to the showers
near it. There is also a weak pocket of cooler air aloft
associated with the vorticity max, so some heavy showers or even
some thunderstorms are not out of the question. A slight chance of
thunder was retained in that area for tonight
focus then shifts to the next front approaching from the west for
Friday night into Saturday. Current model trends have the front
slightly slower then previous forecasts but still retaining at
least gale force winds as it crosses the gulf. Main forecast
change was the increasing of wind speeds in many areas of the
inner channels Fri night into Sat as the front moves in. Higher
resolution models were suggesting gale force winds at that time
for some areas like stephens passage and southern lynn, but i
decided to limit those winds to around 30 kt for now to await
further runs.

This front also looks to be rather wet with a moisture plume
extending all the way down to the tropics. However, this front
does not appear to get hung up on the panhandle like last night's
front did. Instead it appears to be a rapid mover from W to E so a
period of heavy rain is still likely for many areas but it should
not stick around long enough for flooding to become an issue. As
for ptype, sea level areas will still be too warm for snow,
however higher elevations of the klondike highway and maybe the
haines highway could get cold enough for snow so will need to be
watched as the front comes inland.

Short range models were in decent agreement. Namnest was used for
wind speed updates particularly in the inner channels Fri night
into sat. Overall updates were handled with the GFS and NAM though
most of those updates were minor.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday as of 10pm
Wednesday... The extended forecast starts off with a strong front
over the eastern gulf and widespread rain over the panhandle.

Models are now indicating a barrier jet and elsewhere along the
front to have storm force winds. Have increased wind speeds with
this package up to gale 35-45kt for now since models are still
showing some differences on when the peak timing would be. Winds
aloft will have shifted to the SW which will increase rainfall
rates to heavy at times again and keep temps on the warm side.

Therefore any place that had started off as a mix or snow will be
all rain by Saturday morning.

The low looks to move inland near pws Saturday afternoon and
precip will transition to showers across the panhandle, although
remaining wet due to persistent onshore flow. Temperatures aloft
will start to cool at this point however, so do have places over
the northern inner channels with snow mixed in Saturday night and
Sunday. Not expecting much accumulation with this snow, potential
is there for a few inches, but warm surface temperatures will
likely cause the snow to melt on contact to start and
significantly limit accumulations.

Sunday night into Monday a new low center will be over the north-
central gulf. This will help to keep showers going (mostly rain
during the day and some mixing snow at night) across the region.

But as the low tracks s-se through Monday, winds will turn out of
the north and offshore, causing decreasing pops and cloud cover
from north to south. Meanwhile the upper level jet will also have
turned out of the north and draw down colder air across the
region. Models have come in line with the shift to north winds on
Monday Tuesday, but the GFS and canadian keep that going Wednesday
while the ECMWF has it breaking down already with a shift back to
the se. Think that it will persist a bit longer, so have
increased northerly winds through the inner channels through mid
next week. All signs point to this "cool down" back to normal
december temperatures to not last and things warming back up
above normal levels beyond the long range period.

Models were in better agreement on the overall pattern for this
package. Preferred the GFS for most updates as it was in line
with the forecast from yesterday and other models came into better
agreement with its solution. Forecast confidence is average, but
lower for accumulating snow.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind from 6 pm akst this evening through late tonight for
akz018.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz051-052.

Small craft advisory for pkz011>013-021-022-031>036-041>043.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz053.

Eal ferrin
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PRTA2 - Point Retreat, AK 4 mi57 min 39°F 1010.8 hPa37°F
JNEA2 - 9452210 - Juneau, AK 26 mi49 min ESE 8 G 11 40°F 1013.3 hPa
SDIA2 - South Douglas, AK 28 mi40 min ESE 8 G 8 41°F 1012.2 hPa39°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Juneau, Juneau International Airport, AK16 mi74 minESE 710.00 miLight Rain39°F37°F96%1013 hPa

Wind History from AJN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE26
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E5E8E6E7E7E10NE5E7E5E7NE3
1 day agoE14E10E13E14E17
G25
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2 days agoSE11E8E6NE8SE9NE7E5E9E9E7E8E9E10E7E11E6E6SW3E5E3E12E12E10E14

Tide / Current Tables for Barlow Cove, Mansfield Peninsula, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Barlow Cove
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:55 AM AKST     3.55 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:32 AM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:42 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:58 AM AKST     16.21 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:28 PM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:07 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:35 PM AKST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:58 PM AKST     14.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
13.211.596.34.33.64.5710.213.315.416.215.4139.55.62.30.20.11.74.78.111.213.3

Tide / Current Tables for Lincoln Island, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Lincoln Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:58 AM AKST     3.58 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:33 AM AKST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:44 AM AKST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:59 AM AKST     16.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:27 PM AKST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:06 PM AKST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:37 PM AKST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
13.411.89.26.54.43.64.5710.313.515.716.515.713.39.85.82.40.301.74.78.211.413.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.