Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Excursion Inlet, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:20AMSunset 3:57PM Monday January 21, 2019 4:31 AM AKST (13:31 UTC) Moonrise 5:55PMMoonset 9:59AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ013 Southern Lynn Canal- 320 Am Akst Mon Jan 21 2019
.small craft advisory late tonight...
Today..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers in the morning. Rain showers.
Tonight..N wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow in the evening.
Tue..N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue night..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Wed..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Excursion Inlet CDP, AK
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location: 58.42, -134.88     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 202339
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
239 pm akst Sun jan 20 2019

Synopsis A broad area of low pressure will dominate the gulf
of alaska through Monday morning. A gale force low will approach
the panhandle from the southwest Monday night, then stall off the
southern outer coast on Tuesday.

Short term The majority of time today has been spent on keeping
up with snow rates and accumulations and matching snow ratios with
currently observed over the central panhandle. The main changes
to this forecast centered on raising snowfall totals for juneau
tonight and haines Monday. Early on, we discovered 3 to 6 inches
of snowfall had fallen from kake to petersburg, and wrangell
overnight. A very well-defined stubborn front had set up along
sumner strait over to around port alexander. South of the front
precipitation had long ago changed to rain and held around 40 to
45 degrees. North, point baker and port alexander came in with
mixed precipitation in the mid 30s with kake, petersburg, and
wrangell locked in an efficient overrunning precipitation regime
with temperatures unchanged around 30 degrees. Models indicated a
front aloft sliding through the area around mid-day, thus we
issued a winter weather advisory through mid-afternoon with a
transition to rain more assured by afternoon, but certainly not
promised. By the rain changeover early this afternoon, petersburg
spotters had phoned in with almost 8 inches of snow for the entire
event. Kake and wrangell figure to have a little less.

Preliminary snow ratios measured around 11:1 in petersburg.

Meanwhile, early morning snow ratios around juneau measured around
7:1 with around an inch downtown juneau and lower amounts in the
valley. However, cooling cloud tops overhead today, and deeper
onshore flow inspired by increasing lift associated with a
streaking short-wave across the northeast gulf signal fluffier
snow in our near future. However, guidance also signals warming
conditions late tonight with a potential rain mix for downtown
juneau and douglas. We have pushed snowfall totals higher to 2 to
4 inches tonight with another inch in the valley Monday morning
before we transition to rain fully across the region. Reluctantly,
this was a forecast flip-flop from yesterday morning for this time
period. Preliminary measurements today have ranged from 1.5
inches at the airport since midnight to around 2 to 2.5 inches
downtown since midnight. An advisory was discussed, but we elected
to hold off for now. The 18z NAM however has raised precipitation
amounts over other models with good saturation within the snow-
growth zone of the atmospheric column tonight.

The third area of concern is haines for Monday. Model soundings,
particularly the NAM go southerly on Monday which allows for more
efficient moisture advection through lynn canal region. We raised
qpf in the lynn canal region, kept winds light north, and lowered
temperatures in line with cold air damming. We also raised snow
ratios more towards climatology. So for now we call for 2 to 4
inches, but should high res solutions and the NAM enhance
precipitation through this region, an advisory or possibly a
warning should be considered.

As the low lifts into our seas, some offshore flow over the north
may allow a enough cooling to potentially change precipitation
back to snow for minor accumulations in juneau and points north
Monday night, but confidence is not super. Whatever the case, the
south may see some heavier rain bands move in. This is just a
prelude to the coming week when deeper southerly flow maintains
higher freezing and snow levels and a very wet forecast. Whatever
the case, we do foresee a small break beginning Tuesday into
early Wednesday where conditions may dry. Thus we have lowered
pops, qpf, and cloud cover for this time period from north to
south.

We used an ensemble of the nam, gfs, and ECMWF for forecast
changes. Confidence is good for the synoptics but average on
detail of our typically complex forecasts.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday as of 10 pm Saturday ... One
word description of the long range forecast: uncertain.

A reason for the uncertainty is split flow at 250 mb jet level.

Have seen major shifts in each model run, including ensembles.

Latest GFS has been showing deepest lows moving into the gulf
(resulting in stronger winds) but also had more breaks in precip
through the week.

What consensus there is indicates above average predictably with
mid level ridging over the eastern ak gulf and panhandle with
troughing to the west over the tip of the aleutians and N bering
sea. Low confidence in the embedded smaller scale waves. The
interaction of these waves moving eastward and riding over the
ridge will determine practical weather. Where these waves will
track, when will they move and and how strong they are depend on
which model and model run you look at. Do expect southerly flow
with very warm air moving into the region which will mix to the
surface (850 mb temps +1-2 standard deviation above normal
resulting in temps as high as 6c) and potential for significant
qpf (most likely in the form of heavy rain) mid week.

Decided to keep with the inherited forecast with some use of
wpc nbm and stay away from deterministic models until a more
stable pattern becomes established or at least better indication
of superior model initialization. Expect the forecast to change
as we get a better handle on the advancing waves (timing and
strength of winds and precip). However, it is unlikely that any
changes will drop temps enough for a significant snow event.

Forecast confidence is very low.

Marine Small craft advisories for residual outflow tonight
through cross sound and southern lynn canal will relax by tomorrow
when a ridge builds across the panhandle in anticipation of a gale
force low approaching the southeast gulf of alaska on Tuesday. We
did decide to keep lynn canal north, though, which will contribute
to colder temperatures across the far north. Gales have been
posted for zones 41 and 42 as well as clarence strait late Tuesday
afternoon, along with a couple of small craft advisories for
sumner and southern chatham as the gale force low approaches
southeast.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz036-041>043.

Small craft advisory for pkz013-022-033-035-051.

Jwa prb
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTLA2 8 mi19 min NE 4.1 G 6 30°F 1012.4 hPa26°F
JNEA2 - 9452210 - Juneau, AK 26 mi31 min 31°F 40°F1012.8 hPa (+0.0)
SDIA2 - South Douglas, AK 28 mi23 min S 2.9 G 2.9 32°F 1012 hPa31°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Juneau, Juneau International Airport, AK16 mi38 minSSE 36.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist29°F28°F96%1012.8 hPa

Wind History from AJN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3
1 day agoS4CalmS3CalmSW4NW3CalmE4E3S3NE6E3E7NE5E7E6NE4SE8NE3E5E5E5E4Calm
2 days agoNE54NE63NE5NE5NE6NE6NE5E3N3NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Barlow Cove, Mansfield Peninsula, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Barlow Cove
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Mon -- 12:56 AM AKST     15.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 AM AKST     1.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:25 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:57 AM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 12:42 PM AKST     18.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:56 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:55 PM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:21 PM AKST     -4.97 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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14.915.914.8128.24.51.91.43.3711.515.518.218.716.812.97.62-2.5-4.8-4.3-1.23.68.9

Tide / Current Tables for Lincoln Island, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Lincoln Island
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Mon -- 01:06 AM AKST     16.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:50 AM AKST     1.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:27 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:59 AM AKST     Moonset
Mon -- 12:52 PM AKST     19.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:55 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:55 PM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:28 PM AKST     -4.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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15.316.615.813.19.35.32.51.73.36.811.315.618.619.41814.393.2-1.6-4.4-4.2-1.43.48.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.