Thursday, February22, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Egegik, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:15AMSunset 6:10PM Thursday February 22, 2018 1:58 PM AKST (22:58 UTC) Moonrise 10:26AMMoonset 1:17AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Egegik, AK
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location: 58.45, -157.5     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 221832
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
553 am akst Thu feb 22 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The active weather pattern continues. The ridge that brought the
southern half of ak plenty of stratus and fog for the past day or
so has slid off towards the alcan border. The next transient
shortwave is pushing into the cook inlet region from SW ak this
morning. Snow and rain overnight for SW ak is starting to wind
down as the back edge of the front is evident on satellite. Fog
and low stratus are once again filling in behind it. But quite a
different story for southcentral ak as the radar activity has
increased steadily overnight and it is now snowing steadily across
much of the anchorage bowl kenai peninsula. The only places
experiencing temperatures warm enough to support rain are over the
souther tip of the kenai (homer, seldovia). The turnagain arm wind
has yet to make an appearance. At this point, it looks like it
should be very shallow and short-lived, so precipitation should
remain mostly snow across the anchorage bowl.

Meanwhile over the bering, the next gale-force front is pushing
through the western aleutians. Eventually, this will track towards
the west coast of ak on Fri bringing another round of
precipitation with it.

Model discussion
Models are in much better agreement with today's snow for
southcentral. There is still a little bit of uncertainty as to
exact amounts due to the orientation of the trough axis and the
timing of the surface low development in prince william sound.

However, all places will see at least several inches of snow.

Models have then trended much further north with precipitation
with the system across southern ak for sat. This system looks to
bring more snow to the area. Unlike the current system, this one
should be safely all snow even through the gulf coast. There is
some uncertainty in how strong the associated triple- point low
will be over the north gulf, so we will be watching that for winds
and snow amounts.

Panc... Fog and low stratus has blended directly into snow this
morning. Lifr conditions will persist through much of the
morning. The only chance for some improvement would be some
warmer turnagain arm wind moving in. But for now, this looks like
an outside chance. So expect minimal improvement until the snow
changes to showers with northwest flow later this evening.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
An upper level trough moving over southcentral this morning will
be the focus for widespread snowfall throughout the area today.

The trough axis is moving slightly slower than initially expected,
so the winter weather advisories for the matsu valleys were
extended into the afternoon when snowfall should begin to diminish
from west-east as the trough axis passes overhead. We also added a
winter weather advisory for the anchorage bowl, both due to near
advisory level accumulations expected and to highlight periods of
heavy snow during the morning rush hour today. The lowest confidence
in the expected snowfall from this event is around west anchorage
which be under the influence of a brief round of turnagain arm winds
this morning. This is expected to be a very shallow layer of se
winds that should quickly become SW within a few thousand feet of
the surface. This will prevent any significant downslope effects
from developing, but as temperatures rise to near-above freezing it
is expected to bring decreased snow ratios (to around 10:1), likely
leaving west anchorage on the lower end of the expected
accumulations today. This trough will then shift widespread
accumulating snowfall into the copper river basin and gulf coast for
this afternoon-evening before all areas begin to improve around
midnight behind the trough axis.

As the upper level trough passes over the north gulf coast this
afternoon, it will quickly produce a surface low near prince
william sound, bringing a round of strong winds to much of the
gulf coast. The strongest of these winds are expected from eastern
turnagain arm into whittier as a strong westerly jet and shortwave
pass over the intensifying pressure gradient. Some of the guidance
is indicating that this could bring a brief round of high wind gusts
to whittier, but at this point the gusts should peak in the 60 mph
range. These winds will then begin to diminish on Friday morning as
the very progressive pattern continues to bring rapidly moving
systems through the area. Weak high pressure will quickly move
through the gulf on Friday, ahead of yet another system that is
expected to impact the entire region with continued snow late Friday
into this weekend.

Short term forecast southwest alaska
A front is currently exiting SW alaska to the east bringing an end
to rain and snow to most of the region this morning as colder and
drier air filters in behind the departing system. Some snow
showers will persist over the kuskokwim river delta region this
morning aided by instability from cold air advection aloft. Skies
should clear today as a ridge of high pressure builds in over the
region. As the ridge axis moves over the western coast tonight,
clearing skies, strong subsidence aloft, weak flow, and plenty of
low level moisture will lead to the development of widespread fog
over the coastal and lowland regions tonight and Friday morning.

Another system will rapidly approach the coast by Friday afternoon
with a front sweeping across the region bringing accumulating
snowfall to most locations through Saturday morning. Right now,
due to the speed of the system, about 3-5" of snow is expected,
though higher amounts are likely for communities closer to the
alaska range, including iliamna and port alsworth.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians
A progressive pattern will continue over the bering as a series of
low pressure systems punctuated with short periods of ridging in
between will move across the area for at least the next week. The
first system is currently approaching the western aleutians from
the SW with snow and gale force winds approaching attu. This front
will sweep across the aleutians and bering sea before elongating
out as the low complex runs into an arctic high to the north. The
resultant tightening pressure gradient across the bering and
strong cold air advection behind the front will result in a wide
spread area of westerly gale force winds spreading across the
entire bering sea through the day on Saturday. The long fetch
winds will lead to building seas with waves building up to 25 ft
by Saturday.

Long term forecast (Saturday afternoon through Wednesday)
An active pattern continues through the extended time frame. For
southcentral alaska, snow-bearing systems with a day of cold and
clear between and near normal temperatures. For southwest alaska,
the same frequency of systems exists, but more rain and above
normal temperatures.

A new front and developing triple-point low pressure system enters
the gulf from the north pacific ocean. Guidance has come into much
better agreement with timing and track of the system, taking it
right up to middleton island by Saturday morning. The front
associated with the system looks to push all the way up cook inlet
and across the north gulf coast, even into the copper river basin.

All these areas should see snow spreading from south to north late
Friday night into Saturday morning. Snow should end by the
afternoon hours, returning the area back to a colder outflow gap
wind pattern heading into next week.

Early next week, the upper pattern remains very progressive from
the southwest. While exact timing of each embedded system is not
feasible at this time, we can expect a new system to traverse the
area about every other day. At this time it looks like Mon Wed fri
for snow chances over the area. The bulk of the warm air stays
south in the gulf, but guidance is hinting at a more amplified
pattern late next week, which could bring a brief warm-up,
however, the pattern remains progressive W o any intact warm
frontal passage, which is very good for cold and snow lovers.


Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Winter weather advisory 101 111 145.

Marine... Gale warning 119 120 121 125 127 130 131 170 173-179 181

Synopsis and model discussion... Mso
southcentral alaska... Dek
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kvp
long term... Mtl

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Egegik, Egegik Airport, AK7 mi62 minW 16 G 2310.00 miOvercast33°F30°F92%1027.8 hPa

Wind History from AII (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE12SE12--SE7SE7SE6------SE9SE7SW9W10--W12SW13
1 day agoE4E5CalmSW4--E4--E5E7SE8SE9--SE15
2 days agoSE15

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Bluff, Kvichak Bay, Bristol Bay, Alaska
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Middle Bluff
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Thu -- 02:16 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:08 AM AKST     1.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:43 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:23 AM AKST     17.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:26 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:33 PM AKST     5.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:44 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:10 PM AKST     17.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:09 PM AKST     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
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Thu -- 02:16 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:03 AM AKST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:07 AM AKST     2.59 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:30 AM AKST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:43 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:24 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:34 AM AKST     -1.98 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:32 PM AKST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:23 PM AKST     2.08 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:42 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:13 PM AKST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:09 PM AKST     First Quarter
Thu -- 11:34 PM AKST     -2.60 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.