Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 9:38 PM Moonrise 4:03 PM   Moonset 4:21 AM

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PKZ737 Marmot Bay- 339 Am Akdt Sat Apr 20 2024
Today - E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.Tonight - E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.Sun - Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming se 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.Sun night - SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Mon through Tue - E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.Wed - E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 201324 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 524 AM AKDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Monday night)...

As of early this morning, a Flood Advisory remains in effect for Kodiak City and surrounding areas while a Flood Watch remains in effect for the remainder of Kodiak Island. While additional rainfall is expected today, intensity will be much lighter than what has been experienced the past three days. Thus, the threat for further flooding impacts is diminishing and the expectation is that these products will be expired at some point today. As far as the latest rainfall totals, Kodiak Airport recorded 7.34 inches of rain Wednesday through Friday (April 17-19), which is Kodiak's 13th all time wettest 3-day total on record (*climate records go back to September 1913).

While the overall large scale pattern remains the same, changes are afoot. The low which has been spinning in the North Pacific to the south of the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island has weakened and elongated. A short-wave at the base of the upper trough continues to dig southeastward toward the Northwest CONUS, with the long-wave trough taking on more of an E-W orientation across the Northeast Pacific. The atmospheric river which has been pumping moisture from the tropical Pacific up to Kodiak Island is greatly weakened and about to be pinched off as the short-wave trough nears the CONUS. Meanwhile, the blocking ridge sitting to the north and east over Mainland Alaska and Northwest Canada is beginning to retreat northward out of Southcentral. What has been very strong winds at all levels between the trough and ridge is finally beginning to weaken. At the surface, a weak stationary front draped across Kodiak Island and the southern Gulf is also weakening. Rain continues across much of Kodiak Island and the northwest Gulf, but rainfall intensity has lightened up significantly. Strong and gusty winds across the Kenai Peninsula and northwestern Gulf coastal waters have diminished from their peaks and continue to weaken this morning. Other than the winds, weather is quiet over Southcentral. Temperatures have dropped well below freezing over interior areas where clear skies prevail while above freezing temperatures persist across the southern tier of Southcentral due to high clouds and the aforementioned winds.

The long-wave trough will continue to evolve over the next couple days as the short-wave driving toward the Northwest CONUS breaks off and exits across southern Canada and a newly consolidated upper level low takes shape south of Kodiak. Today will be the last day of steady (light) rain for Kodiak City and much of Kodiak Island. As the new upper level low takes shape on Sunday, the surface front will dissipate and a leading trough will lift northward into southern Alaska. This will bring an end to rain for Kodiak, with just a few light showers lingering in the region.
For Southcentral, expect one more dry and mostly sunny day today with warm temperatures. The approach of the trough on Sunday will lead to increasing clouds and showers, especially along the coast.

The forecast for Monday/Monday night is much more uncertain, as models have really been struggling with consistency with track of the upper level low. The latest runs seem to be consolidating around the same general idea, in tracking the upper low into Southwest Alaska Monday then back east or northeast toward Southcentral Monday night as the upper level flow becomes more progressive. However, the exact track and resultant area of precipitation ahead of the low differs among the models and from run-to-run. The end result for Southcentral will be continued mostly cloudy skies with a chance of precipitation through Monday night. With somewhat cooler air moving in aloft, there is the potential that some of the precipitation Monday night could fall in the form of snow.

-SEB

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A trough stretching from the North Pacific to the Bering Sea will continue to bring rounds of precipitation through tomorrow evening to Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula. The main low south of the Alaska Peninsula that provided the region with precipitation the past few days moves into the North Pacific. A Bering low begins to move across the Aleutians tomorrow.

Today: A low moving northwestward through the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay this morning will bring mostly rain and high elevation snow to the area through this afternoon. Its current track is similar to yesterday's resulting in continued north to northwesterly wind direction and all snow for the Pribilofs and Dutch Harbor. Persistent southeast winds from the aforementioned trough will bring another chance of rain to the Alaska Peninsula and portions of Southwest Alaska from late this afternoon into the evening hours. After a short dry period, another round of precipitation will return for this area again tomorrow afternoon.

This evening through Monday night: A ridge builds into the western Aleutians late this evening but weakens as it moves eastward. In its wake, a Bering low moves south and east remaining north of the Aleutians. A shift to southwesterly warm gale force winds will signal the arrival of its front on Monday evening as it moves eastward. Rain will be the main precipitation type.

-DJ

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

A pattern shift is expected as we go into the weekend with the synoptic pattern breaking down. Sunday into Monday, a strong low develops as it moves into the western Bering Sea that will track a front eastward next week. While the pattern is expected to break down leading into the long term forecast, high pressure will remain somewhat stubborn over Canada and stretching into the interior of mainland Alaska. The strength and placement of the ridge will influence the direction of the upstream flow. Expect unsettled weather to continue through next week. Periods of rain spread across Southcentral Alaska through Wednesday from the Kenai Peninsula to the Canadian Border.

Additional subtropical moisture will be drawn into the developing western Aleutian low early next week. Heavy precipitation will spread across the Aleutians beginning as rain and transitioning to snow. Cold air wrapping into the low will help reinforce the potential for Storm force winds. The influence of the front appears to stretch into the northern Bering, affecting the Pribilof Islands and St. Matthew Island.

Potentially heavy rainfall continues to spread into the Alaska Peninsula with the front through Tuesday, and into Southwest Alaska late Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of rain then moves to Kodiak Island late Tuesday through Thursday. Gusty, southeasterly winds move through the Barren Islands into Kamishak Bay Wednesday and Thursday. Some of the moisture could be diverted south depending on the interior ridge, but heavy precipitation remains possible and the amounts will depend on whether there is additional support from a secondary trough phasing with the front. Model agreement also breaks down towards the end of the week.

rux

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Big Bay
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Sat -- 01:43 AM AKDT     12.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:21 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:42 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:52 AM AKDT     2.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:53 PM AKDT     12.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:02 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:58 PM AKDT     1.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:37 PM AKDT     Sunset
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Big Bay, Shuyak Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Carry Inlet
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Sat -- 01:39 AM AKDT     11.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:21 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:41 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:44 AM AKDT     1.99 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:49 PM AKDT     11.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:02 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:50 PM AKDT     1.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:37 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Carry Inlet, Shuyak Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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