Tuesday, August22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aleneva, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 9:36PM Tuesday August 22, 2017 4:47 PM AKDT (00:47 UTC) Moonrise 6:02AMMoonset 8:08PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ137 Marmot Bay- 254 Pm Akdt Tue Aug 22 2017
Tonight..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Wed night..SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Thu..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aleneva, AK
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location: 58.55, -152.62     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 230046
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
446 pm akdt Tue aug 22 2017

Analysis and upper levels
The upper level longwave trough remains over the mainland part of
the state as it extends southward out of the arctic. The cut-off
low that broke off this trough is in the central gulf of alaska
and will be moving eastward overnight. The upper level ridge is
over the eastern bering sea and eastern aleutians today producing
a tight NW gradient and jet streak over southwest mainland alaska
and the alaska peninsula. The next upper level low is just north
of attu and providing more moisture and lifting in the bering
sea. This system will merge with the digging trough in the
interior to bring in solid southwest flow aloft to southwest
alaska by tomorrow morning and southcentral alaska late tomorrow
afternoon.

Model discussion
Models remain in good agreement over the next few days. The ecmwf
is slightly slower and more southerly with the way the low exits
bristol bay into the gulf of alaska on Friday. A GFS nam blend was
the preferred guidance.

Aviation
Panc... Skies should mostly clear this evening and there is a
chance for some patchy fog to develop overnight before the cloud
cover moves back in. Conditions are expected to remainVFR
through tomorrow. Southeast turnagain arm winds are expected to
move over the airport Wednesday afternoon.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3, through
Thursday)...

as the current surface low in the gulf of alaska moves off to the
southeast, weak ridging is in place over south central alaska
resulting a break in the rainy weather. We have a low now over the
bering sea pushing a front east toward the mainland. This front
will be approaching kodiak island by tomorrow morning. As it does,
a sharp ridge will build in along the north gulf coast resulting
in accelerating in the wind along the coast and through turnagain
arm by Wednesday afternoon and evening. Moist southwest flow aloft
in support of this incoming front will return the southern
mainland to the rainy pattern Wednesday afternoon. The low
supporting the front will move over southwest alaska by Thursday
morning then drift to kodiak island through Friday. This will keep
the region under the cool wet conditions through Friday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
A weak disturbance traversing the northern part of the area will
bring light rain showers to parts of the kuskokwim delta and
valley tonight. Otherwise, most of southwest ak will remain dry
through late Wednesday morning as a transient upper level ridge
shifts east of the region. Steady rain will then move back into
the area during the afternoon, spreading from southwest to
northeast as the bering front arrives along the coast and pushes
inland. The front will quickly move east of the area by Wednesday
night, however widespread stratiform rain is expected to continue
as an upper trough racing across the bering partially phases with
the next trough digging down from the arctic. This should keep
the rain going through Thursday night as a closed upper low forms
along the southwest coast and slowly tracks towards the alaska
peninsula.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Rain and gusty winds will impact much of the bering through
Wednesday night as the broad low pressure system rapidly tracks
eastward from near attu to bristol bay over the course of the
next 24 hours. A more tranquil pattern will settle over the region
on Thursday in the wake of the low, with northerly flow perhaps
generating a few showers over the eastern bering on the backside
of the trough digging over the southwest mainland. Meanwhile,
benign cloudy conditions will return to the western bering as high
pressure builds over the area.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7)
Beginning the extended period forecast Friday night, there will be
a large upper trough carved out across alaska with a thin by
amplified upper level ridge axis over the bering sea. Another
arctic trough will be digging across southwest alaska and
reinforcing another low over the gulf of alaska. Rain will be
along the coast with showery, cooler, and cloudy conditions
inland. Eventually, the low in the gulf of alaska will weaken and
move east by Sunday, with diminishing precipitation through about
Monday. In the meantime, the upper level pattern will be in
transition as now all global numerical guidance undercuts the
bering ridge with a series of low amplitude shortwave troughs as
they cross the aleutian chain and amplify somewhere over the
north-central pacific ocean. This evolution will begin to unfold
Monday night with the development of a larger low approximately
south of the alaska peninsula. As usual, there is uncertainty on
the track, strength, and orientation of the eventual low, but the
possibility exists for heavy coastal rain (since this low will be
tapping subtropical moisture) and strong gusty southeast winds
impacting inland areas. Rain is also likely inland, but the extent
of which east of the alaska range is more uncertain as the global
models differ in how strongly the yukon ridge axis builds
westward. Either way, more active weather looks likely by midweek
across parts of southern alaska and the eastern bering sea.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ez
southcentral alaska... Sa
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Cb
long term... Ja


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 43 mi48 min NNW 8.9 G 14 58°F 1007.5 hPa (-0.4)46°F
KDAA2 - 9457292- Kodiak Island, AK 57 mi48 min NNW 5.1 G 14 67°F 53°F1008.2 hPa (+0.0)
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 63 mi48 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 57°F 1007.9 hPa (-0.4)57°F

Wind History for Kodiak Island, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N11
G28
NW12
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G20
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G17
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G7
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NW12
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1 day
ago
N2
NW7
G14
W9
G13
N3
G13
NW6
G15
W13
G18
W2
G11
W7
G13
NW7
G22
NE5
G15
NW16
G21
NW13
G29
NW11
G22
NW17
G25
NW16
G28
NW12
G21
W13
G23
NW13
G24
NW16
G31
W6
G17
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W14
G22
NW8
G27
NW11
G29
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ago
NE4
NE4
G9
NE5
NE4
E3
NE3
NE3
NE4
SW2
SW3
--
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E1
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E1
E2
SE1
E2
--
NE4
N7
N9
NE3
G9
N4
G7

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kodiak, Kodiak Airport, AK55 mi55 minW 14 G 1910.00 miFair70°F46°F44%1008 hPa

Wind History from ADQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13
G21
NW13
G21
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G23
NW10NW8NW10NW8NW12NW9NW9NW9NW10NW9NW12
G19
NW10W12NW9W11NW11NW13
G20
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1 day agoNW4NW7W9NW10NW9NW9NW11NW7NW10NW13
G18
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G21
W16
G21
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G19
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G25
NW14
G19
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G23
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G29
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W15W18NW14NW13
G23
W20
G27
2 days agoNE6NE8NE6NE6NE6NE5NE8NE5CalmCalmSE3NE3NE3E3E5E4CalmCalmN3CalmNW44W7W9

Tide / Current Tables for Big Bay, Shuyak Island, Alaska
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Big Bay
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Tue -- 03:28 AM AKDT     16.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:48 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:02 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:51 AM AKDT     -2.94 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:09 PM AKDT     16.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:36 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:08 PM AKDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:08 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.310.614.216.316.314.210.45.71.1-2-2.9-1.42.16.611.114.616.115.412.78.84.40.9-0.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Carry Inlet, Shuyak Island, Alaska
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Carry Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:25 AM AKDT     15.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:47 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:01 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:43 AM AKDT     -2.78 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:05 PM AKDT     15.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:36 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:00 PM AKDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:08 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.410.413.715.515.313.29.54.90.6-2.2-2.7-12.46.710.91415.214.411.87.93.70.6-0.50.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.