Friday, November17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
King Salmon, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 9:11AMSunset 4:17PM Friday November 17, 2017 3:42 PM AKST (00:42 UTC) Moonrise 7:06AMMoonset 4:26PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near King Salmon, AK
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location: 58.67, -156.65     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 171433
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
533 am akst Fri nov 17 2017

Analysis and upper levels
Southern alaska is in the process of transitioning back to a
drier offshore flow pattern this morning as a pair of upper level
disturbances depart into the gulf and help to dig a trough over
the eastern half of the mainland. Areas of low stratus or patchy
fog linger across some portions of southcentral ak including the
upper cook inlet region as the first shortwave which brought
widespread snow to the area yesterday moves into the northeastern
gulf near yakutat. The second shortwave which tracked rapidly
through southwest ak last evening has now moved into the far
southern gulf, ushering in strong northwest winds from the coastal
waters of the western gulf to the pacific side of the ak
peninsula. Farther west, more benign conditions reside across most
of the bering as another ridge builds into the region. Meanwhile,
a front associated with the latest kamchatka low is beginning to
move over the western tip of the aleutian chain.

Model discussion
Models show good agreement through the short term as the synoptic
pattern briefly re-amplifies and reverts to more of an outflow
wind dominated regime yet still remains fairly progressive into
the weekend. The ridge building over the central bering will
gradually shift east across the mainland through Saturday night,
setting the stage for the next system to drop into the area from
the bering strait region on Sunday (see the long term discussion
below for details on this system). Generally went heavier on hi-
res guidance early in the forecast to capture the next round of
outflow winds and then broadened the approach to more of a
blended solution to account for lower confidence later in the
weekend.

Aviation
Panc... Ifr ceilings are expected to remain over the upper cook
inlet region through late Friday morning before lifting around 20z
as stronger northerly flow develops.VFR conditions are then
expected to persist through Saturday morning.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A few lingering areas of snow over the eastern copper river basin
should end this afternoon. Low status and patchy fog is expected
to linger from cook inlet western kenai peninsula to the anchorage
bowl into the afternoon hours today. Status and fog potential over
the matanuska valley should continue until winds pick up early
this afternoon. The amplifying upper ridge over western alaska in
combination with increasing pressure and temperatures gradients
across southcentral will give rise to strong outflow gap
conditions across much of the gulf coast today. Winds will likely
peak late this evening then slowly diminish through Saturday.

Northwest gales with storm gusts over the western gulf today will
slowly diminish tonight. A weather front approaching from the
west Saturday night will bring increasing chances of snow to the
cook inlet mat-su corridor and rain mix to kodiak.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
A strong and very potent storm system will be developing Saturday
through into Sunday and impacting all of southwest alaska. The
parent low, currently near the kamchatka peninsula, will take
advantage of numerous ingredients to become a powerful storm this
weekend. Unseasonably warm air over much of the western and
central bering is streaming north on the west side of a large area
of high pressure. The storm is gathering cold air over siberia. As
the center of the low moves southeastward over the bering strait
on Saturday, it will undergo rapid cyclogenesis as a very
favorable jet and impressive temperature gradient feed the storm.

As the low center tracks towards southwest alaska, the very warm
air over the bering will override the shallow cold air across the
kuskokwim delta and bristol bay. The warm air should have no
problem quickly scouring out the cold air across much of the lower
kuskokwim delta and near the coast of bristol bay, thus places
such as bethel, dillingham, and king salmon should see a period of
rain Saturday evening in bethel, and overnight Saturday night in
dillingham and king salmon with rising temperatures overnight.

The rain and warmer temperatures will limit snow accumulations.

Cold air on strong, gusty winds rushes quickly into the area
behind the low, possibly turning all rain back over to snow before
ending Sunday morning.

Further east towards the lower kuskokwim valley and locations
north and east of king salmon such as iliamna and the lake clarke
national park are expected to stay all snow as the warm air
struggles to make it that far inland. Thus, impressive snow totals
are possible. This will be especially true as the cold air wraps
around the north side of the low, dropping temperatures and
raising snow ratios making for a very powdery, fast-accumulating
snow. The snow will continue through much of the day Sunday,
ending late afternoon. A winter storm watch is in effect for
those locations for upwards of a foot of snow possible. Very cold
air follows the storm for all of southwest alaska.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The current strong winds south of the alaska peninsula are
diminishing this morning and all eyes turn to the next storm
system developing this weekend. Very warm, moisture-rich air is in
place over much of the central and western bering. Meanwhile, cold
air over siberia is on a collision course with the warm air,
setting the stage for the development of a strong storm.

As the low tracks towards southwest alaska Saturday, the cold air
from siberia on the west side of the low and on the east side of
the strong high will race southward and replace the warm air
across the bering from siberia. 50 to 60 mph winds with gusts as
high as 85 mph over a large swath of the eastern bering Saturday
night through much of the day on Sunday are possible following the
cold frontal passage. A high wind watch is in effect for the
pribilofs.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Expect near to below normal temperatures across southern alaska,
with periodic snow across the southwest. Fronts will dissipate by
the time they reach southcentral alaska. Expect continued gap
winds along the north gulf coast.

The forecast begins Saturday evening with a transition in the
upper level pattern taking place. A cold outflow pattern with gap
flow along the north gulf coast will briefly give way to a front
and low pressure system sliding into the western gulf Sunday
morning. The front will bring rain to kodiak, and snow to the
kenai peninsula, potentially as far north as a line from skwentna
through anchorage palmer. The most likely place to see
accumulating snow would be from kenai through homer. Going into
the extended forecast, we return to a more familiar outflow
pattern. However there are differences between what we've been
seeing to the upcoming pattern.

The upper jet looks to be more zonal in the upcoming pattern while
the low-levels remain conducive for weaker outflow and gap winds.

The jet stream looks to be very active and progressive with
multiple embedded with a storm track from the northwest pacific
through the southern mainland gulf of alaska. Expect three west to
east moving fronts to approach the mainland and weaken through
next week. Each of these systems will bring cold air from the
arctic on the backside, which will prevent the progressive pattern
from moving into the interior.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Winter storm watch 152 161. High wind watch 195.

Marine... Gales 127 128 130 131 132 138 150 155 160 175 185 351 352 411
412 413.

Synopsis and model discussion... Cb
southcentral alaska... Rmc
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Jw
long term... Tp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK1 mi48 minNNW 15 G 2310.00 miFair35°F25°F67%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW17
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NW9NW8NW7NW6NW9NW8NW9NW8NW13
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1 day agoN6NW8N5NW5NW4NW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4SE4S3SE4SE5S4S4SE6S5S4W15
G18
2 days agoN4N5W3NW4N7N6N5N8N7N4CalmNE5SE3CalmN3N5N3CalmN3NE3CalmCalmN3N4

Tide / Current Tables for King Salmon Airport, Naknek River, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATIONSorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Omakstalia Point, Naknek River, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATIONSorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.