Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Naknek, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 9:24AMSunset 4:07PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 3:46 AM AKST (12:46 UTC) Moonrise 12:07PMMoonset 7:33PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Naknek, AK
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location: 58.72, -157.05     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 220142
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
442 pm akst Tue nov 21 2017

Analysis and upper levels
Early this afternoon a weak front stretches along a line from
just south of talkeetna to the southern tip of the western kenai.

The upper trough driving this feature is swinging eastward from a
parent low over the chukchi sea. An upper shortwave ridge is to
the east of the trough with nearly zonal flow to its west over the
bering. The next impactful low to monitor is quickly approaching
the western aleutians from the north pacific.

Model discussion
Models are generally in good agreement on the synoptic pattern
through the short range forecast into early Thursday evening. Good
model consistency is noted along the last several runs, therefore
only minor updates were needed for the afternoon package.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF package,
however there is a chance for brief MVFR to develop along a weak
front projected to move across the anchorage bowl this evening.

Winds will generally be a light northerly flow through Wednesday
afternoon.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
A weak shortwave trough will continue pushing east across
southcentral this evening bringing a quick shot of snow to most
locations on the west side of the chugach and kenai mountains,
though no more than an inch of accumulation is expected. The
trough weakened considerably as it came over the alaska range
today and will fall apart even more as it moves over higher
terrain to the east, meaning areas along the prince william sound
and gulf coast should see little if any snow from this system.

High pressure will build in again behind the departing trough
tonight and tomorrow bringing another shot of cold air advection
and strengthening northerly gap winds. The orientation of the
upper level flow and pressure gradient will favor areas along the
coast including valdez thompson pass, whittier, and seward, where
winds could gust as high as 35-50 mph peaking tomorrow afternoon.

The flow will rapidly shift tomorrow evening as another low over
the western part of the state moves in. A front extending from the eastern
bering across the akpen will sweep NE over kodiak and the
southern kenai bringing another round of rain and snow to those
areas. High pressure over NW canada will block the low from moving
further north and push the center to the south and east over the
gulf, keeping the area mostly dry through the rest of the week.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The forecast period commences with a polar low over the chukchi
sea with the remnants of the frontal boundary moving into western
alaska. In the wake of the frontal passage, ridging will build
into southwest alaska tonight resulting in a lull between
cyclones. Wednesday a mature low will have emerged into the
central bering and the models have converged on a solution that
bring this storm to southwest alaska late this forecast period.

Early Thursday the surface low will begin to dive southeastward
from nunivak island to bristol bay. Widespread precipitation and
coastal impacts anticipated with this storm.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The progressive pattern for the bering and aleutians continues.

A low that is currently south of attu island is progged to
rapidly deepen and push north and east. This storm is projected to
evolve into a significant storm that will harness a widespread
area of cold air advection. The attendant cold front will migrate
eastward impacting the aleutian chain and the central bering. The
operational runs of the GFS and the NAM have the surface low
deepening more than 20 mb in 24 hrs. Anticipate strong winds,
rough seas and wintry precipitation. Early Thursday, the surface
low will begin to dive southeastward from nunivak island to
bristol bay.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The forecast heading into the weekend will see the exit of a
strong low into the gulf of alaska and eventually the pac NW of
the lower 48. Friday, winds along the akpen should begin to abate
and the concerns for gusts reaching warning level will wane. This
weekend will see a transient bering sea ridge build north of the
central aleutian chain and slowly slide to the east. Low pressure
lifting from the western pacific will drag a front across the
bering and merge with a different area of low pressure Sunday.

This will reintroduce precipitation across much of the southwest.

However, with strong southerly wind transporting warmth aloft,
problems with precipitation type arise during this timeframe. The
Friday and through the weekend forecast for southcentral remains
pretty basic. Offshore flow will dominate the entire period and
skies should become relatively cloud free. Temperatures will
slowly drop this weekend with the clearing skies and limited wind
overnight. Chances for snow are bleak through at least Monday.

Guidance takes a turn come next week and becomes challenging. The
long range forecast trended to more of an ensemble weighting as
the standard suite of deterministic models provided a wide range
of forecast possibilities.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Cfw and wsw 155 and 161, npw 181 and 195.

Marine... Storms 165 170 179 180 181 185 411-414. Gales 120 130-132
138 150 155 160 172-178.

Synopsis and model discussion... Kh
southcentral alaska... Kvp
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ps
long term... Ss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK21 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair8°F5°F87%1018.5 hPa

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S6S5SE5SE5SE8SE9SE7S4S5S4E5CalmNW4NW6N5N5CalmCalmSE3S4E3SE4Calm
1 day agoN24
G35
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N11N11N16
G26
N14
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N17N15
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N9N9N7N4N5N4CalmE3S5S7S7
2 days agoW15
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G26
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G25
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W11W15
G21
W12W10NW8NW6CalmN5N5N4NW6N8N7N13N23
G32
N16
G30
N24
G36

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Naknek River, Alaska
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Entrance
Click for MapNote: No low water falls below -2 feet.

Wed -- 02:48 AM AKST     5.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:11 AM AKST     14.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:35 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:05 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:14 PM AKST     1.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:52 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:22 PM AKST     22.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:33 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.98.465.57.310.413.214.714.412.910.67.95.12.71.42.35.911.116.220.422.522.420.717.9

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:58 AM AKST     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:34 AM AKST     1.43 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:36 AM AKST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:05 AM AKST     -1.98 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:36 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:42 PM AKST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:06 PM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:53 PM AKST     2.75 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:53 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:35 PM AKST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:34 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:27 PM AKST     -2.57 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.70.11.31.41.10.6-0.4-1.3-1.8-2-1.9-1.7-1.10.62.32.72.51.90.8-0.5-1.4-2.1-2.4-2.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.