Saturday, February24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
South Naknek, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:09AMSunset 6:16PM Saturday February 24, 2018 6:51 AM AKST (15:51 UTC) Moonrise 11:34AMMoonset 3:54AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Naknek, AK
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location: 58.72, -157.05     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 241505
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
605 am akst Sat feb 24 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The active weather pattern continues as the next snow event has
blasted through southwest ak and is now moving into southcentral.

This is all being supported by a semi-meridional upper level
(30,000') jet at a 130 kt. This strong jet is helping to mix down
some gusty westerly winds behind the snow over SW ak. It is also
ushering in some cold air and heavier showers across the bering,
especially near the pribilofs. Over southcentral, snow has been
falling for a good part of the night from talkeetna over to
cordova. However, a moderately strong triple-point low is now
taking shape over the northern gulf of alaska. The net effect of
this is pulling down some northerly flow from the interior
portion of the state at the surface. This is allowing some drier
air to slide underneath the snow and slow accumulation rates thus
far. Radar was more impressive earlier in the night, but light
snow will still continue to fall through the morning.

Over the western aleutians and western bering, the next system is
already approaching. Another gale-force front will slide into the
area from the north pacific later today. And then this will become
the next weather-maker for the mainland late Sunday into Monday.

Model discussion
Models remain in very good agreement through the weekend. This
results in moderate to high forecast confidence in the broader
synoptic features. Areas of uncertainty with this package are
exact snow amounts across southcentral and how much low-level
moisture (fog stratus) will redevelop overnight across the
southern mainland. Generally higher-resolution models were used
for fine tuning the forecasts this morning.

Panc... Conditions are holding tight in the ifr range this morning
with light snow. This will continue through about 21z when we
expect the snow to taper off and cig vis to improve. It is
possible that we could see conditions goVFR for a few hours this
afternoon, but then we expect stratus to redevelop late this
evening. Forecast confidence in the stratus is low to medium at
this point as offshore flow could bring enough drying to keep it
from forming.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Widespread snow will continue this morning over much of
southcentral as an upper low moves overhead before beginning to
cut off over the gulf by this afternoon. Accumulations are now
expected to be slightly lower after seeing the 12z anchorage
sounding this morning indicated only very weak instability in the
snow growth zone (-5 to -20c), causing snow ratios to be much less
than initially expected. Most areas of the anchorage bowl and
matanuska valley should see an additional few inches from this
event, however this is about half of what was first thought for
these areas. The gulf low will then move into the eastern gulf by
this afternoon, which should allow snowfall to gradually diminish
from west-east as gusty westerly winds develop in the gulf. The
strongest of these winds are expected from the barren islands
southward under the upper level jet where widespread storm to
hurricane force gusts are expected to develop by this afternoon.

These winds will then diminish throughout the area by Sunday
morning as the gulf low quickly makes landfall over the southern
panhandle ahead of another shortwave ridge.

The very active pattern in the gulf and south mainland will then
continue into early next week as yet another system quickly moves
into the gulf for late Sunday-Monday. This low will take more of a
northeasterly track into the gulf ahead of arctic trough digs
through the mainland. Snow amounts from this system will be
heavily dependent on how far east the low tracks as it makes
landfall over the north gulf coast early Monday, but there is
increasingly good agreement that this system will bring another
round of widespread snowfall to southcentral and the north gulf
coast, which could be heavy at times in anchorage and the
matanuska valley for the Monday morning commute.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
A frontal system is currently exiting SW alaska this morning which
will bring an end to widespread snow seen across the area
overnight. Cold air wrapping around the base of a trough over the
northern bering will help to support scattered snow showers across
the kuskokwim delta and river valley today, though accumulations
are expected to be minimal for most locations. Strong westerly
winds will also continue to ramp up today, with gusts expected to
reach up to 40-50 mph along the coast from nunivak island south to
bristol bay. The long fetch westerly winds will also lead to rough
surf along the coastline during the day.

A brief period of high pressure will build in tonight before the
next stronger system moves in rapidly from the west. A front will
bring another round of snow to the area beginning Sunday
afternoon tapering off during the day on Monday, with total
accumulations expected to be between 3-5 inches. A bigger concern
with this system will be another and more intense round of long
fetch westerly winds aimed at the southwest coast Sunday night
through Monday, which could potentially lead to storm surge issues
for low lying areas along the coast including kuskokwim bay and
the northern bristol bay coast. The current timing of the storm
brings the peak surge to the coast at low tide Monday morning,
which would only produce a moderate surge of 2-4 ft above the high
astronomical tide line (hat). If the system slows down by about 6
hours, the peak surge would coincide with high tide Monday
afternoon bringing surge levels possibly up to 5-6 ft above the
hat line, causing some serious coastal erosion and flooding
issues. Stay tuned for more updates over the weekend as the timing
and impacts of this system are locked down.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A surface low in the northern bering is leading to a tightened
pressure gradient and widespread westerly gale force winds across
most of the bering. Cold air advection will lead to scattered snow
showers today over the eastern aleutians and akpen before the
next system comes barreling into the western bering aleutians
tonight. A surface low with associated frontal system will sweep
across the region tonight and Sunday bringing an area of storm
force winds across the southern bering and aleutians. This will
cause a rapid rise in sea states with waves building up to 35 ft
Sunday night and Monday for the southern bering between the
pribilofs and aleutian islands.

Long term forecast (Monday through Friday) The active pattern
remains on tap through next week.

For the southern mainland and kodiak island we're still on track
for a low to traverse the mainland beginning Sunday night
supported by a large upper trough. This system remains
sufficiently cold to keep all precipitation of the frozen variety
except for kodiak island where rain should briefly mix in. A
triple point low forms along the north gulf coast Monday then
dives southeast Tuesday and Wednesday. A residual low remains in
the prince william sound area through Monday night. Coupled with
the supporting upper trough, this could result in the snowfall
staying over south central alaska through Monday night. The low
and associated trough that extends to the northwest will result in
a tight gradient and thus, gusty strong outflow wind out of the
chugach mountains ringing prince william sound Wednesday and
Thursday. The gradient relaxes Friday and conditions should settle
down over the southern mainland. Previously we were expecting
a shot of warmer advection into southwest alaska Thursday night
and Friday. The latest model solutions are backing away from the
warm advection intruding into southwest alaska at this point.

Over the bering sea, aleutians and akpen we start the week with a
large strong low over the eastern bering sea that barrels into
the mainland Sunday night. Cold air wraps around the west quadrant
of this low coupled with the tighter pressure gradient, should
result in strong gusty west and northwest wind over the eastern
bering sea and akpen Monday. A weak flat ridge in the wake of
this low will rapidly yield to the next incoming storm entering
the western bering sea late Monday. This low rapidly traverses the
bering sea before dissipating as it approaches the bristol bay
region Tuesday night. A large low is then on tap to push into the
western bering sea Wednesday. Yesterday it appeared this low would
push a front to the bering sea coast and strong warm advection
into southwest alaska. Todays model runs have backed off on that
solution opting for a more westerly track that will have the front
stall then dissipate over the eastern bering sea Friday.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Storms 130, 131, 136, 137, 173, 175, 177, 178, 351, 352,

Gales 120, 132, 138, 139, 141, 150, 155, 160, 165, 170, 172,
174, 176, 179, 180, 185, 411, 412, 414.

Heavy freezing spray 130.

Synopsis and model discussion... Mso
southcentral alaska... Dek
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kvp
long term... Sa

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
King Salmon, King Salmon Airport, AK21 mi58 minWSW 169.00 miPartly Cloudy30°F25°F82%1010.1 hPa

Wind History from AKN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE7SE5E6E6E5SE5E7E9E10E8E10E10SE8S18SW17
1 day agoSW13SW11W14W11
2 days agoCalmSE4CalmCalmE4CalmS5S5S8S7S9S7S5SW3S4SW3CalmW4CalmSW9SW7SW10SW8SW11

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Naknek River, Alaska
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Click for MapNote: No low water falls below -2 feet.

Sat -- 04:54 AM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:56 AM AKST     -0.93 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:37 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:44 AM AKST     22.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:34 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:38 PM AKST     4.77 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:46 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:17 PM AKST     20.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance), Alaska Current
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Kvichak Bay (off Naknek River entrance)
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Sat -- 12:15 AM AKST     -2.71 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:28 AM AKST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:54 AM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:44 AM AKST     3.01 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:37 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:10 AM AKST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:35 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:11 PM AKST     -2.14 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:13 PM AKST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:47 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:01 PM AKST     2.05 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:41 PM AKST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.