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Marine Weather and Tides Clark's Point, AK Version 3.4

What's New / NOTES 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues. 6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported. 5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

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Sunrise 6:04AM

Sunset 9:50PM

Tuesday April 24, 2018 10:29 PM AKDT (06:29 UTC)

Moonrise 1:13PM

Moonset 3:56AM

Illumination 75%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clark's Point, AK

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Area Discussion for -

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Fxak68 pafc 250336 afdafc southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion national weather service anchorage ak 736 pm akdt Tue apr 24 2018 Analysis and upper levels A moderate strength triple point low continues to slowly deepen as it tracks northward up the west coast of alaska. A strong upper level meridional jet streak and area of upper level diffluence over southwest alaska this morning are sliding eastward toward southcentral this afternoon, with a surface cold front following closely behind. This storm system is producing widespread strong winds along with localized heavy precipitation in upslope areas. Some of the strongest winds have been along turnagain arm (with hurricane force wind gusts observed in portage valley and the upper hillside of anchorage). Observed gusts to 45 mph (with estimated gusts to 60 mph) were observed in the muldoon area and along the S curves on the glenn highway. This has produced widespread reports of downed trees, damaged fences and even some severe damage to some homes along the anchorage hillside. These winds have also brought widespread power outages to east anchorage, hillside, and eagle river. Winds at lower elevations have since diminished and become more squirrelly as the less side trough strengthens. Down valley down inlet flow has kept the turnagain arm jet centered out over the northern inlet, though this will still bend into south to west anchorage as the surface cold front arrives later this afternoon. With strong low level south to southeasterly flow ahead of the frontal system, south to east facing slopes are seeing the bulk of the precipitation. Meanwhile, downslope flow on the opposite side of the mountains is keeping some areas completely dry. Behind the cold front, flow shifts to southwest and precipitation becomes showery. The colder air is leading to a transition from rain to snow across southwest alaska. Back over the bering sea and aleutians, a large cyclonic circulation with multiple embedded centers and short-waves is combining with an unstable air mass to produce areas of rain and snow showers and gusty winds. Model discussion Models remain in good agreement with large scale features allowing for good forecast consistency and overall above average confidence. Forecast challenges remain similar to the past couple days: details of winds with strong frontal system moving across the southcentral this afternoon through tonight along with precipitation type as cooler low level air moves in. With persistent gusty winds the boundary layer will remain well mixed and surface temperatures will remain relatively warm (above freezing) which would suggest rain or a rain-snow mixed, while instability and heavier showers would produce all snow. Will likely end up with a mix of everything across the forecast area. A secondary challenge is timing of the many upper waves moving through the upper level cyclonic flow which will act as the primary forcing mechanism for showers. Aviation Panc... While there likely will be fluctuations in windspeeds over the next 24 to 36 hours as various features move through, there is high confidence in persistent strong and gusty south to southeast winds. The bigger challenge may be determining timing of precipitation and impact on ceiling visibility. The best chance for rain will be as the cold front moves through this afternoon, which could even mix with snow at times. Suspect there will be just enough low level downslope flow to maintainVFR conditions, though could very briefly drop to MVFR or even ifr if snow does develop. Behind the front beginning this evening, the mean flow will become nearly due south which will make the terminal a bit more susceptible to showers, so ceilings will likely hover in the low endVFR category. Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2) A fall-like storm making its way through southcentral alaska continues to bring strong winds and rain to much of the area, with some snow at higher elevations and over the northern susitna valley. Strong gusts will also persist across the lower elevations of the anchorage bowl, as well as the palmer-wasilla area and along the copper river through this evening, but should

remain below warning level. Gusty winds around the southcentral area are expected to slowly diminish tonight through early Thursday morning. Rain and snow will begin to fill in over most of the previously downsloped areas on the lee of the chugach mountains, as the front passes through late this afternoon and winds become more southerly. The bulk of precipitation is expected to remain along the northern gulf coast and northern susitna valley through tonight, becoming more showery by Wednesday morning. Specifically north of talkeetna this evening through the overnight hours we are expecting to see some snowfall accumulations as the colder air moves in behind the front. Overnight snow accumulation for this area is expected to be around 2 to 4 inches, but the southerly flow aloft is a direction that could cause enhanced snowfall and lead to higher amounts than currently expected. We are also expecting snowfall through thompson pass tonight accompanied by southerly winds, which is likely keep any blowing snow wet enough to not reduce visibilities much. Some uncertainty remains due to the potential for heavier precipitation to help drag down some cooler air from aloft. This scenario could bring some increased snow accumulation to the highway and start to interfere with visibilities. Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2) A wet and blustery pattern is anticipated the next two days. A deep upper level low is rotating over the bering sea and will continue to eject shortwave energy into the region. The radars at bethel and king salmon have been very active and convective today. Currently, the surface front is bisecting southwest and the akpen and is progged to rapidly move eastward. The jet core continues to push into southwest alaska and shift eastward overnight. Strong winds expected in gaps, channels and other areas with complex terrain. The vertical temperature profiles continue to be complex and expecting to see a mix of rain and snow. Tonight the first shortwave will become negatively tilted enhancing the dynamics. In the wake of the frontal passage as second shortwave will move into southwest bringing another round of showers. Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2) Cyclonic flow continues to dominate the bering. The surface front has moved into the akpen. However, the upper level low is north of the pribilofs. There are multiple shortwaves embedded in the low. The latest ascat scatterometer pass has detected gale force winds south of adak and unalaska, and also north of st matthew island. Tomorrow the upper low will slowly drift to the north and east allowing a shortwave ridge to momentarily build in over the western bering aleutians resulting in a brief respite. By Thursday, the next kamchatka low will have developed and will begin to close in on attu island. Long term forecast (days 3 through 7) The long range forecast beginning Thursday night continues with higher precipitation chances across the southern mainland as an upper level bering low and associated surface front lifts north of the bering strait through Saturday. The next storm system quickly follows as a fast paced low tracks across the bering, making it to the southwest coast by Saturday morning. Models have been struggling with evolving the individual low tracks as the jet stream acts as a 110+ conveyor belt which remains along the aleutian chain and southern gulf through early next week. Models are starting to align better with breaking the ridge down over the gulf over the latter part of the weekend. However, this is a new trend for the forecast at the start of next week. Main updates for the extended forecast focus around stronger winds along the bering and trends toward higher precipitation chances for the southern mainland and surrounding waters. Afc watches warnings advisories Public... None. Marine... Gale 119 125 155 165 170 172 173 174 176 180. Synopsis and model discussion... Seb southcentral alaska... Tp southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ps long term... Kh

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Dillingham, Dillingham Airport, AK	14 mi	34 min	SSW 13 G 19	10.00 mi	Overcast	39°F	35°F	86%	998.5 hPa

Wind History from ADL (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Nushagak Bay (Clark's Point), Alaska

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Nushagak Bay (Clark's Point) Click for Map Wed -- 05:43 AM AKDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide Wed -- 06:17 AM AKDT     Moonset Wed -- 06:52 AM AKDT     Sunrise Wed -- 12:11 PM AKDT     21.41 feet High Tide Wed -- 04:37 PM AKDT     Moonrise Wed -- 06:36 PM AKDT     1.72 feet Low Tide Wed -- 10:12 PM AKDT     Sunset Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

12am	1am	2am	3am	4am	5am	6am	7am	8am	9am	10am	11am	12pm	1pm	2pm	3pm	4pm	5pm	6pm	7pm	8pm	9pm	10pm	11pm
16.6	14.5	11	7	3.1	0.3	-0.2	1.9	6.1	11.3	16.1	19.7	21.4	20.6	17.9	13.8	9.2	5	2.2	1.9	4.1	7.7	11.8	15.2

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Tide / Current Tables for Middle Bluff, Kvichak Bay, Bristol Bay, Alaska

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Middle Bluff Click for Map Wed -- 12:35 AM AKDT     17.07 feet High Tide Wed -- 06:11 AM AKDT     Moonset Wed -- 06:50 AM AKDT     Sunrise Wed -- 06:53 AM AKDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide Wed -- 01:21 PM AKDT     21.53 feet High Tide Wed -- 04:34 PM AKDT     Moonrise Wed -- 07:46 PM AKDT     1.65 feet Low Tide Wed -- 10:07 PM AKDT     Sunset Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

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16.7	16.9	15	11.7	7.6	3.6	0.6	-0.4	1.3	5.3	10.4	15.4	19.4	21.4	21	18.5	14.6	10	5.6	2.5	1.7	3.5	7.1	11.1

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.