Friday, July28, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Clark's Point, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:22AMSunset 10:49PM Friday July 28, 2017 5:01 AM AKDT (13:01 UTC) Moonrise 11:30AMMoonset 11:03PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Clark's Point, AK
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location: 58.85, -158.55     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 281246
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
446 am akdt Fri jul 28 2017

Analysis and upper levels
A split flow pattern has developed with an upper level ridge
centered across eastern alaska and a trough to the south over the
gulf. To the west, zonal flow is streaming abundant moisture
between a low centered near the bering strait and a ridge just
south of the central aleutians. At the surface, the pattern is a
relatively weak reflection of the pattern aloft. The most active
weather pattern is across the southwest mainland with a front
moving rain eastward into bristol bay and the kuskokwim valley.

Model discussion
Models are in good agreement through the weekend with handling low
pressure moving across the southeastern gulf and another across
the northern bering. Only minor changes were needed for morning
updates as model consistency is above average.

Panc... MVFR stratus is expected to continue across the terminal
through the afternoon with improvement this evening. A weak
disturbance aloft moves across this morning which will initiate a
few showers across the region, however kept this mention out of
the morning TAF as radar activity is fairly quiet and models are
showing downslope trends with light southeasterly flow just off
the surface. There is still some uncertainty in ceiling improvement
this evening as the air mass is expected to remain nearly
saturated, so this will be monitored closely for updates.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
High pressure will remain centered just north of south central
alaska through Saturday night. Some moisture is pushing westward
underneath the ridge and will produce some showers across the area
today. Conditions will then be drier for much of the area on
Saturday as upper level heights start to build. The exception
will be inland areas from the copper river basin and the susitna
river valley, where increased heating will lead to diurnal showers
and a few thunderstorms.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
A front pushing slowly eastward through southwest ak will
continue to produce widespread rain through tonight, especially
from greater bristol bay into the lower kuskokwim valley. Rain
will taper off to showers by Saturday morning and diminish in
coverage through the day on Saturday as weak cyclonic flow is
eventually replaced by weak ridging nosing into the region from
the southwest.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The synoptic pattern will remain largely unchanged through the
weekend, with generally westerly flow over the bering on the
northern periphery of the pacific ridge. This will mean a
continuation of the persistent fog and stratus regime over much of
the region, with multiple waves embedded in the westerly flow
bringing occasional chances for precipitation. A pair of
disturbances will move through the bering today, spreading rain
over the alaska peninsula and the eastern aleutians through
tonight while a weak east-west oriented frontal boundary brings a
chance of rain to the rest of the chain. Another disturbance will
enter the northern bering late Saturday into Sunday, bringing
another chance of rain to areas mainly north of the pribilofs.

.Long term forecast (days 3 through 7 Saturday night through

the large scale pattern remains fairly persistent through the
extended forecast period. The strong blocking ridge centered
just south of the western aleutians looks like it will weaken
with persistent waves riding over top of it, tracking eastward
across the bering sea then dropping southward into a trough over
the gulf of alaska northeast pacific. Model guidance differs in
some of the details of individual waves, but shows the same
general idea. Thus, generally speaking expect wet conditions
across the bering sea and into southwest alaska along with
continued areas of fog and stratus across the region.

Meanwhile, weak ridging will persist in the vicinity of
southcentral. A steady stream of upper waves will pass in the
vicinity of southcentral, but forcing looks weak. The lack of
strong forcing or strong flow creates quite a challenging
forecast. At this time scale it's nearly impossible to forecast
the details of what any given day will be like in southcentral.

Overall, we can say there will be a lot of "fair" days; not wet
or dry, not hot or cold, not cloudy or sunny - but somewhere in
between these dichotomies. There are indications the ridge will
break down late next week, with potential for storms to approach
southcentral from both the west and south.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Kh
southcentral alaska... Bl
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Cb
long term... Seb

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dillingham, Dillingham Airport, AK14 mi66 minN 010.00 miOvercast51°F48°F92%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from ADL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmS3S5S7S8S9S10S955454645SW6S6CalmS6
1 day ago33W7W9W10NW533E6SE5E6S3S5S5S3Calm3Calm3CalmCalmNW5NW3NW3
2 days agoCalmCalmSW6SW6SW5SW85S8S7--S11S9S8--333CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3

Tide / Current Tables for Nushagak Bay (Clark's Point), Alaska
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Nushagak Bay (Clark's Point)
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Fri -- 12:46 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:39 AM AKDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:15 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:06 AM AKDT     21.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:29 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:31 PM AKDT     1.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:34 PM AKDT     17.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:04 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Bluff, Kvichak Bay, Bristol Bay, Alaska
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Middle Bluff
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Fri -- 12:42 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:49 AM AKDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:13 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:16 AM AKDT     21.37 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:25 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:41 PM AKDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:44 PM AKDT     17.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:58 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.