Saturday, March17, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Covenant Life, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:09PM Saturday March 17, 2018 4:11 PM AKDT (00:11 UTC) Moonrise 6:52AMMoonset 6:34PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ011 Glacier Bay- 315 Pm Akdt Sat Mar 17 2018
Tonight..Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun..Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..Light winds becoming S 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon night..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue..SW wind 20 kt becoming n. Seas 4 ft.
Wed..N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Covenant Life, AK
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location: 58.88, -136.57     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 172306
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
306 pm akdt Sat mar 17 2018

Short term We started off with some areas of fog this morning,
but we've shifted to mostly sunny skies across the panhandle
because of increased solar heating, which we can see from webcams.

Unfortunately, a few areas still have a stubborn marine layer
remaining with a shallow overcast ceiling around 2000 ft, which
includes yakutat and gustavus. Current water vapor satellite
imagery shows our upper level ridge continuing to break down as a
shortwave digs south of the aleutian islands. A lack of a pressure
gradient has given us relatively light winds across most
locations, save for skagway and haines; these locations are
blowing around 15 kt due to a tighter pressure gradient between
the surface high pressure currently over the yukon. The rest of
today should continue to provide partly cloudy to mostly sunny
conditions, calm winds, and no precip in sight.

Tonight, as the shortwave over the central gulf drops further
south, another surface high pressure system will build over the
central gulf and move east. A very weak shortwave will traverse
near the northeast gulf coast Sunday, providing enough lift to
trigger some drizzle across portions of the panhandle Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. Model analysis shows moisture
building up in the boundary layer Sunday night for this period of
non-accumulating precip, and forecast soundings show a pretty
decent signal for drizzle. The ridge will then continue to push
east against the coast range on Monday, providing us with a "dirty
ridge" scenario, before another shortwave begins to drop out of
mainland alaska Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning,
transitioning drizzle to more stratiform rain. The precipitation
type that develops as this low digs further south over the
panhandle on Tuesday may change things to snow in areas,
especially north, as cold air advection dominates the further
south the low pushes.

Generally, there is decent model agreement amongst the
deterministic models. We chose to mainly use the GFS with a little
of the ec for updates to the forecast. The NAM was incorporated
slightly into the pops to account for a higher resolution when
updating for the drizzle Sunday evening.

Long term through Saturday As of 10pm Friday... On Monday a
wsw jet will move into the northern gulf and jet dynamics will
help to spawn a surface low near pws. The jet turns out of the
north and the whole system shifts to the south through Monday
night as a ridge builds to the west with a trough digging into the
gulf of alaska. This will cause the surface low to shift south as
well through Tuesday. However, a closed upper level low will form
a the base of the trough and linger over the far SE gulf or north
pacific through the end of the week.

Confidence has increased in the low for the start of the week, so
winds over the outside waters have been increased to gale force.

These will be out of the w-sw on the south side of the low, then
shift to the NW and eventually NE after the front and low passes.

The onshore flow ahead of the front will be warm enough for rain
to occur on Monday, starting in yakutat in the morning then
spreading SE across the panhandle through the night. Behind the
front low there will be fairly strong caa, so expect precip to
transition to snow showers briefly before ending over the northern
panhandle on Tuesday. Some light accumulations are possible. The
southern panhandle will transition to showers as well, but will
likely be more of a mix or all rain.

With the low shifted to the south, expect winds to increase out
of the north through the inner channels for Wed thurs. Have
continued to limit pop wed-fri across the northern panhandle due
to flow becoming more offshore as the low shifts to the south and
due to dry air advecting in from the north at the surface.

However, over the southern panhandle, the surface and upper level
low will be close enough to draw up moisture from the south. It
also looks to be fairly convective, so will need to watch for
afternoon thunderstorms.

Since models now have the upper level trough developing into a
closed low and has shifted it ever so to the west, this places se
alaska under s-sely flow aloft, this should help to mitigate the
caa from the northerly surface winds and overall colder
temperatures at 850mb. The biggest model differences continue to
be how the upper level trough moves out on Saturday and whether
there will be precip assoc with the upper level low. Have left
some in across the south with at least mostly cloudy skies since
we've been burned before by "east movers". Overall forecast
confidence is above average and models remain in good agreement.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz041>043-051.

Voveris ferrin
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 47 mi44 min SW 4.1 G 6 46°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 47 mi61 min WNW 6 G 8 41°F 1016.6 hPa38°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 49 mi41 min 47°F 1015.6 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elfin Cove - Elfin Cove Seaplane Base, AK48 mi84 minN 025.00 miOvercast41°F37°F87%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
Last 24hr--4------------------------------Calm--Calm--Calm--Calm
1 day ago--NW6----------------------------------NW6--NW8--NW8
2 days ago--E12------------------------------Calm--Calm--NW6--NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Composite Island, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Composite Island
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Sat -- 02:35 AM AKDT     16.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:14 AM AKDT     New Moon
Sat -- 07:16 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:52 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:41 AM AKDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:35 PM AKDT     17.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:14 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:34 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:54 PM AKDT     -1.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Muir Inlet, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Muir Inlet
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Sat -- 02:35 AM AKDT     16.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:14 AM AKDT     New Moon
Sat -- 07:14 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:50 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:40 AM AKDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:36 PM AKDT     17.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:12 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:32 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:57 PM AKDT     -1.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.