Saturday, July22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Covenant Life, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:29AMSunset 9:39PM Saturday July 22, 2017 6:40 PM AKDT (02:40 UTC) Moonrise 2:58AMMoonset 8:11PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ011 Glacier Bay- 543 Pm Akdt Sat Jul 22 2017
Tonight..SE wind 15 kt diminishing in the evening. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..Light winds becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon night..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Covenant Life, AK
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location: 58.88, -136.57     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 222236
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
236 pm akdt Sat jul 22 2017

Synopsis A low in the SE gulf will gradually weaken through
early Sunday as an area of high pressure builds over the gulf. An
associated frontal band moving over the panhandle will track east
and weaken Saturday night.

Short term Saturday night through Monday as of 230pm
Saturday... Upper low over the SE gulf continues its eastward
track this evening with the associated surface low following
suit. Moderate showers this afternoon are expected with dissipate
quickly as the vorticity bands push into british columbia. Three
hour rain rates upwards of 0.25 inches were measured across the
souther panhandle overnight and over the central panhandle this
afternoon along the track of the front. So far only minor rises
in local streams and rivers. What was looking to be a drying and
clearing trend through the start of next week is now looking like
a developing marine layer and dirty ridge. Model soundings keeping
shallow layer of moisture in place and higher boundary layer rh
indicative of a marine cloud deck. So have continued the trend of
keeping in mostly cloudy skies, will likely bump to cloudy when
the layer begin to form over the gulf. Have isolated showers
riding over the ridge, mainly over the northeast gulf coast and
central panhandle, but expect little in the way of qpf. Still have
max temps rising into the mid 60s but if little mixing occur may
be on the high side. With showers exiting the region and cooler
temps included patchy fog for typical locations tonight and some
marine for along the coast tomorrow night. All regional winds have
shifted to the south this afternoon as the low weakens and a
ridge builds over the panhandle. With decreasing gradient over
most of the panhandle wind speeds will subside by late tonight and
be less than 10 kt through Monday. Afternoon sea breeze may
develop due to thermal gradient. Exception being N lynn canal
where just enough southerly gradient in the afternoon to pick up
to near small craft levels. Watching a low tacking across the n
pacific Monday night nearing haida gwaii, with current track no
impacts expected.

With such a light gradient models had slight differences on
surface pressure but overall were in line for wind and pop fields.

Refreshed grids with a blend of NAM with some ecmwf. Main change
was bumping up pop on Monday and tone down some of the thermal
winds. Forecast confidence is average.

Long term Monday through Saturday as of 1030pm Friday... An
upper level low traversing south of haida gwaii will assist in
providing offshore flow aloft over most of the panhandle during
the Monday to Tuesday timeframe. This pattern should allude to
cloudy skies with some showers possible, mainly over the southern
panhandle. By Wednesday, models seem to show the low lifting
north, but generally, it appears to deepen and remain over the
area through the rest of the time period. If this solution comes
to fruition, we could see bands of showers expand to include
portions of the northern panhandle. The forecast keeps a chance or
slight chance of showers over many areas through the rest of next
week. As has been the case all summer, our weather has been
influenced mainly by upper level features, rather than surface-
based, so this system warrants watching.

At the surface, anticyclonic flow dominates through much of the
week, as a weak ridge develops over the eastern gulf and persists
through the period of interest. Low level winds will be west-
northwesterly, but they will be relatively weak, due to a
generally stable airmass in the low levels. However, since the
ridge is somewhat flat, there may be plenty of opportunity for
clouds to move in with some isolated showers, as mentioned

Model differences pertaining to the upper level pattern increase
through as early as mid week, indicating that the surface pattern
may be even more different between models. The 12z canadian and
18z GFS were in better agreement, with the 12z ECMWF being the
outlier, but the 00z GFS fell back in line with the ecmwf. This
indecisiveness of the models makes for even greater forecast
uncertainty through the next week.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Prb voveris
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 47 mi75 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 56°F
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 47 mi31 min SW 9.9 G 13 56°F 53°F
ELFA2 - 9452634 - Elfin Cove, AK 49 mi41 min 55°F 53°F1017.9 hPa (+2.1)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elfin Cove - Elfin Cove Seaplane Base, AK48 mi1.8 hrsVar 57.00 miLight Showers Rain55°F53°F94%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
Last 24hr----Calm--------------------Calm--Calm--Calm--Calm------5
1 day ago--Calm----------------------E10
2 days ago--------------------------E10--E7--4--4--4--Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Composite Island, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Composite Island
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Sat -- 12:52 AM AKDT     18.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:58 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:33 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:36 AM AKDT     -3.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:58 PM AKDT     16.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:48 PM AKDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:10 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:50 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Muir Inlet, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Muir Inlet
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Sat -- 12:53 AM AKDT     18.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:56 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:31 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM AKDT     -3.65 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:56 PM AKDT     16.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:46 PM AKDT     1.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:09 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:48 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.