Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Covenant Life, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 3:32PM Saturday November 18, 2017 4:19 PM AKST (01:19 UTC) Moonrise 7:54AMMoonset 4:26PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ011 Glacier Bay- 316 Pm Akst Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft advisory through late tonight...
Tonight..N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray late.
Sun..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun night..NW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Gusts to 45 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray late.
Mon..NW gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon night..NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Tue..N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Wed..N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Covenant Life, AK
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location: 58.88, -136.57     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 182321
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
221 pm akst Sat nov 18 2017

Short term Tonight through Monday... As of 1300 this afternoon,
we can see from water vapor satellite imagery a weakening upper
level trough positioned over the eastern gulf and SE alaskan
panhandle, with a strong upper level ridge over the far western
gulf that extends into mainland alaska. We've seen a few
remaining snow showers in some areas today due to the trowal
wrapping into the circulation head of a weakening surface low
this surface low is associated with the weakening trough aloft
mentioned previously. Due to the placement of the low and a
strong high pressure over northern canada, the pressure gradient
will be tight over the panhandle, leading to the continuation of
strong outflow winds for the remainder of today and into tonight.

The snow showers will continue to diminish from north to south
throughout this evening and into tonight as the low pushes further
into canada. This should then allow for some weak ridging to
build in along the eastern gulf coast briefly on Sunday and allow
for a possible brief decrease in the outflow winds before the next
system moves in.

Beginning Sunday night, a shortwave aloft will dig southeast
through western portions of mainland alaska and break off from
the main upper level flow, helping to create another surface low
over the gulf. This cutoff low will continue to strengthen and
linger over the gulf on Monday and then slowly swing south on
Tuesday. Light snow accumulations may be possible along coastal
locations depending on the placement of the low. However, some
uncertainty as to the placement of the low remains, so precip
amounts, as well as types, across the panhandle are still
debatable. Winds will also be a concern with this system, as gale
force winds are expected along the associated front that will set
up and stall over offshore and eastern gulf waters. In addition,
winds will increase throughout the inner channels as the gradient
tightens between these two systems and offshore flow persists once

Generally, there is decent agreement among the models in the
short-term. However, after Tuesday, models tend to disagree as to
the position of the low that develops over the gulf. We trended
more towards the GFS for any significant updates to the forecast,
using more higher resolution models for QPF and temperature
adjustments. The GFS has had a little more run-to-run consistency,
and the recent ECMWF runs have trended more towards the GFS as of
late. The NAM continues to remain more of the outlier for this
set up.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday it is the time of year
where only short reprieves between low pressure systems are
common, this week will be just that way. By Tuesday, a low center
will be in the south-central gulf north pacific, then by early
Wednesday morning the low will cover much of the eastern gulf.

Confidence is good through this time and then starts to falter a
bit with more differences between the models. Used the ec to do a
small blend to the current forecast, an ensemble approach would
continue to be prudent.

By this time temperatures will have warmed over most of the
southern half of the panhandle to bring in rain for the south and
a mix of rain and snow in the central during the day. Temperatures
will still be cold enough to change to all snow in the
overnight early morning hours for these areas. The warmer air
should advance up to the elfin cove gustavus hoonah juneau
corridor on Thursday. This is where some confidence slips as to
whether the precipitation in the central panhandle, as far north
as elfin cove juneau will be snow, rain or a mix of both. Outer
coastal areas will be a more certain rain for the precipitation
type. By the weekend skagway and haines will be waffling between
rain and snow for precipitation type, for the near sea level
locations and remaining snow for the highways.

There are reasonably healthy QPF amounts for the southern
panhandle which could give several inches of rain and or snow
Tuesday night Wednesday. Then spread into the central panhandle
Wednesday. With temperatures rising above freezing during the day
for most locations and then falling below at night amounts will be
tricky. Downsloping winds will likely keep some local areas in
the north relatively drier.

Brisk winds continue around the northern panhandle with the
northerly wind. In the south the winds will be getting the
influence of the low in the gulf leading to a southeasterly wind.

Wind speeds for much of the panhandle will range from 15 to 25
mph with higher gusts. A lot of sca, with some gales on Monday.

Winds will be on a slow diminishing trend through the week, but
stay mindful for the strong outflow winds in the north through mid
week. These outflow winds will linger between yakutat and dry bay
through Thursday.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind through Sunday morning for akz018.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz012-013-022-052-053.

Small craft advisory for pkz011-021-031-043-051.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz041-042.

Voveris kv
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CSPA2 - Cape Spencer, AK 47 mi70 min ENE 26 G 42 31°F 15°F
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 47 mi54 min NNE 7 G 9.9 31°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elfin Cove - Elfin Cove Seaplane Base, AK48 mi3.5 hrsWNW 920.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F23°F69%1007.1 hPa

Wind History from AEL (wind in knots)
Last 24hr--NW12--6------------------------------NW7
1 day ago--Calm--4------------------------------E11----E12NW12
2 days ago--N12

Tide / Current Tables for Composite Island, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Composite Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:21 AM AKST     16.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:42 AM AKST     New Moon
Sat -- 07:14 AM AKST     2.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:52 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:05 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:05 PM AKST     18.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:36 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:27 PM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:41 PM AKST     -1.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Muir Inlet, Glacier Bay, Alaska
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Muir Inlet
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Sat -- 01:23 AM AKST     16.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:42 AM AKST     New Moon
Sat -- 07:13 AM AKST     2.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:51 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:04 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:10 PM AKST     18.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:34 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:25 PM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:43 PM AKST     -1.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.