Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mud Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:10AMSunset 9:38PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 8:12 PM AKDT (04:12 UTC) Moonrise 3:05AMMoonset 5:33PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ012 Northern Lynn Canal- 325 Pm Akdt Tue May 23 2017
.small craft advisory Wednesday...
Tonight..S wind 20 kt diminishing late. Seas 4 ft.
Wed..S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft.
Wed night..S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu..S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Thu night..S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mud Bay, AK
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location: 59.17, -135.4     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 232241
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
241 pm akdt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis Remnants of a low currently over the southern
panhandle will drift to the east through Tuesday evening. A ridge
of high pressure builds over the gulf behind the low. A weak
weather front passes through the yakutat area Wednesday and then
into the northern panhandle Thursday.

Short term Showers over the southern panhandle are beginning
to diminish as the low remnants exit to the east. Wind increase,
especially over the southwest panhandle coast, between exiting
low and lee side ridge this evening, then subside by Wednesday.

While the drying trend for the southern panhandle will last into
the weekend the northern and central panhandle outlook is not as
dry. Short wave riding over the ridge Wednesday into Thursday
will move in greater probability for precip, especially for the
yakutat area. Model soundings not showing as deep a layer of
moisture along the eastern panhandle with this advancing wave but
greater confidence in more than just sprinkles and cloud cover
from this wave. While ample moisture to the south with some
clearing skies tonight now think there will be more mixing
occurring at mid levels and thus less chance of fog formation.

Besides the greater certainty of the short wave moving in
Wednesday models were still in line with previous forecast.

Keeping with nam GFS guidance for the next 72 hours. Some coastal
winds were increasing at a faster rate but overall changes were
minor. Forecast confidence is average.

Long term Thursday through Monday as of 10 pm Monday. Overall
the pattern at mid levels remained similar to previous forecasts
but with some shifts in timing and positions of features. Upper
level high pressure ridge over the easter ak gulf will shift
eastward over british columbia as the broad low pressure system
from the bering sea expands over most of the ak interior and
aleutain chain through the end of the week. Do expect short waves
to extend from the main low center over the north down into the
central gulf. By the weekend uncertain on if this low will remain
consolidated or split into multiple low centers. The difference
from previous model runs is the shift eastward now occurring
sooner. At the surface high pressure ridge over the gulf flattens
with a short wave riding over into the northeast gulf. Better
indication that precip will move over the NE gulf coast and
central panhandle into Thursday. Still some model spread on depth
of moisture layer with the NAM showing a deeper saturated sounding
while the GFS keeps most saturation at mid levels for the central
panhandle. So for points north of frederick sound at very least
getting cloud cover and a few sprinkles on Thursday to scattered
showers. For Friday the ridge rebuilds over the gulf with more
dry weather in store. At this point much warmer air aloft will
move in, 8 to 10 c at 850 mb, with surface temps at least in the
mid to upper 60s. Low to mid 70's are possible, especially to the
south. Marine winds will have trended downward but still getting
nw flow on lee side of the ridge. Inner channel winds southerly
gradient also weakens as the Thursday shortwave moves out.

While overall synoptic pattern remained the same, the shift over
the low and ridge axis did change winds directions on the western
portion of the gulf from northerly to more southwesterly. For the
eastern gulf and panhandle not much change to wind fields. Used a
blend of gfs ECMWF then wpc for the rest of the long range. While
this pattern has been depicted by models for a few days forecast
confidence is only average due to the change in position of the
features with new model runs.

Aviation Conditions are improving over the southern area as low
moves away and ridge builds in. The showers should be ending by
late afternoon. Expect mostlyVFR conditions for the inner
channels to start, but lower MVFR level clouds will likely affect
the area later tonight. The outer coast has some MVFR ceilings
with stratus stratocu right now, and these lower ceilings will
increase along the outer coast tonight. Currently think there will
be enough wind in lower levels to keep fog threat to a minimum.

Marine Tight gradient between exiting low and advancing ridge
producing lee side northwesterly gales on the coastal waters this
evening. As the pattern shifts east these winds will diminish. By
Thursday as next wave advances weak barrier jet develops in the
far northeast gulf with a wind shift to more westerly and
southwesterly. For the far northern inner channels winds have
flipped south as ridge axis moves east and will increase as the
north-south gradient picks up.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind from 10 pm this evening to 1 am akdt Wednesday for
akz027.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz022-041>043.

Small craft advisory for pkz012-032-033-036-051>053.

Prb rwt prb
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EROA2 - Eldred Rock, AK 17 mi48 min S 13 G 18 58°F 1009.2 hPa44°F
SKTA2 - 9452400 - Skagway, AK 20 mi42 min 59°F 47°F1010.5 hPa
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 56 mi46 min SSW 7 G 12 50°F 1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Juneau, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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S1
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G10
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G9
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G17
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G12
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SW2
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ago
E9
G16
SE12
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G18
SE7
G12
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G10
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G13
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NW1
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ago
SE10
G18
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G18
SE9
G13
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G23
SE8
G11
SE18
G26
E10
G22
E18
G25
SE14
G24
SE17
G23
SE19
G25
SE16
G22
SE10
G20
SE16
G25
SE18
G24
SE8
G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Haines, Haines Airport, AK8 mi18 minE 310.00 miFair59°F43°F56%1011.7 hPa
Skagway, AK22 mi19 minSSW 1610.00 miFair62°F37°F40%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from AHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW5CalmNW10NW10
G18
NW9
G18
NW10NW12NW11
G16
NW9W15W16W14W12W5SE10E6E5CalmE3
1 day agoE13
G32
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G26
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G24
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G25
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G29
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G27
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SE8SE8SE5SE63
2 days ago5E55SE7E7E4CalmE5E5E5Calm5E8E9E8
G16
SE8
G15
E11
G23
E15
G26
E16
G29
E18
G35
E18
G31
E14
G28
E13
G26
E13
G23

Tide / Current Tables for Chilkat Inlet, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Chilkat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:11 AM AKDT     18.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:10 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 04:28 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:42 AM AKDT     -2.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:56 PM AKDT     16.38 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:50 PM AKDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:02 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:47 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
18.417.714.910.65.50.9-2-2.6-0.53.68.312.615.416.415.212.38.34.31.40.62.2610.815.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point, Berner's Bay, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Cove Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:13 AM AKDT     18.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 04:28 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:43 AM AKDT     -2.73 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:58 PM AKDT     16.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:51 PM AKDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:59 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:42 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
18.217.614.910.65.50.9-2.1-2.6-0.63.48.112.315.216.215.212.38.34.31.40.62.25.810.615

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.