Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mud Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:34PM Friday August 18, 2017 1:50 PM AKDT (21:50 UTC) Moonrise 12:35AMMoonset 5:59PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ012 Northern Lynn Canal- 939 Am Akdt Fri Aug 18 2017 Updated
.small craft advisory today through this evening...
Today..S wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
Tonight..S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
Sat..S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
Sat night..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
Sun..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mud Bay, AK
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location: 59.17, -135.4     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 181434
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
634 am akdt Fri aug 18 2017

Short term through Sat night forecasts remain on track this
morning. Showery regime today behind Thursdays abundant widespread
steady rainfall. Juneau airport broke its record for daily rainfall
on aug 17 with 1.20 inches barely beating the 1.18 inches on that
date in 2009. Other areas received upwards of three to four inches
of rain on thurs so we'll look into other possible new records as
reports come in during the day today. Heavy showers moved through
the central panhandle late thur. River gauges in the stikine river
basin responded upward but stayed below action and flood stages.

Dealing with water leaks in the forecast office last night... Not
associated with the rain outside... Prevented us from a very
thorough analysis. As a result... Little changes were made to
exisiting short range forecasts. Did raise winds today for lynn
canal and sumner strait to advisory criteria of 25+ knots due to
high pressure building over the southern panhandle and increasing
the south to north pressure gradients. These winds will persist
through the evening at least in lynn canal but should diminish
by mid day in sumner. Another are we will be adjusting the winds
speeds upward is the northern outer coast on Saturday.

Satellite imagery indicates cloud breaks offshore moving toward
the panhandle. But as this onshore flow of air converges into the
coastal mountains and is forced to rise, gaps in cloud cover will
close. Precip rates today will probably vary greatly. There should
be some short term relief in rain quantity Fri which will allow
many streams to crest and lower some before more rain arrives.

Forecast models indicate low pressure development today around
bristol bay and the ak pennisula. This system will move east and
bring another round of widespread rain to seak sat. As it impinges
on the fairweather range sat, wind speeds will increase over the
ne gulf. This is the reasoning behind our forecast update for the
northern outer coast sat.

Long term Sunday through Friday as of 10 pm Thursday the
extended forecast remains wet and cool. Upper level southwest flow
is advecting large amounts of moisture toward southeast alaska.

A surface low pressure system over the central gulf Sunday will
send a weather front toward the panhandle. While the period
leading up to Sunday will be wet, the Sunday's weather front will
likely reinforce and enhance precipitation over the southern
panhandle. However, a brief break in the rainfall is possible over
the northern panhandle Sunday before rain begins again Sunday
night. Between Sunday and Tuesday rainfall totals range between
about 1 to 4 inches, with heaviest rains near ketchikan and
annette island; the heavy precipitation over the southern
panhandle is expected due to the remnant moisture from tropical
storm bayan directly impacting the area.

Beyond this system, conditions appear to dry out slightly with
only a chance of rain toward the middle of the week; however,
there is still significant spread among solutions.

Primary changes in the extended were confined to Sunday and
Monday, where winds were increased over the southern gulf and
panhandle and decreased over the northern gulf and panhandle
associated with better model agreement handling the low pressure
system. Daytime humidities were increased due to the large amounts
of moisture that will be present over the panhandle as a rainy
period begins. QPF totals were also increased between Sunday and
Tuesday especially over the southern panhandle. A blend of the
ecmwf and GFS was used for Sunday and Monday with minimal changes
beyond that timeframe.

Hydrology Still keeping a wary eye on heavy rain potential
sun-mon. System developing south of adak has abundant moisture
and warm air. It will likely interact with with colder air moving
south from bering strait which will help it strengthen into a
potent gale as it loops into the gulf late in the weekend. Latest
models seem to indicate the associated surface low will be south
of prince wm sound by Mon morning. A broad swath of wsw flow under
the low center will steer exceptionally moist air into the
panhandle or just south of the panhandle starting late sun. We are
collaborating with national weather prediction center on how this
system will evolve and it will be the main focus of subsequent
discussions and forecasts into the weekend.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-035.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz041>043.

Ta jb
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EROA2 - Eldred Rock, AK 17 mi87 min S 20 G 24 55°F 1008 hPa52°F
SKTA2 - 9452400 - Skagway, AK 20 mi51 min 57°F 51°F1009.9 hPa (+1.7)
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 56 mi85 min SSE 2.9 G 7 58°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Haines - Haines Airport, AK8 mi57 minE 9 G 1810.00 miOvercast57°F52°F83%1010.7 hPa
Skagway, AK22 mi58 minSSW 19 G 2610.00 miOvercast and Breezy61°F50°F67%1009.5 hPa

Wind History from AHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE7SE9SE6E5SE3SE4E3SE4E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5W6CalmS3E6E7E9
G18
1 day agoE8E7
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2 days agoSE6S4SE5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E3E4SE6SE7E5

Tide / Current Tables for Chilkat Inlet, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Chilkat Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:35 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:56 AM AKDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:27 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:30 AM AKDT     14.06 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:12 PM AKDT     3.56 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:58 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:41 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:16 PM AKDT     17.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
13.810.56.73.10.7-0.10.93.46.79.912.413.913.912.5107.14.83.64.16.49.713.115.817.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point, Berner's Bay, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Cove Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:36 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:57 AM AKDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:27 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:32 AM AKDT     13.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:13 PM AKDT     3.63 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:54 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:38 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:18 PM AKDT     17.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
13.710.56.73.20.7-0.10.83.36.59.712.313.713.812.4107.24.83.74.26.49.61315.617

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.