Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mud Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 3:32PM Saturday November 18, 2017 1:27 AM AKST (10:27 UTC) Moonrise 7:50AMMoonset 4:20PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ012 Northern Lynn Canal- 347 Pm Akst Fri Nov 17 2017
.gale warning through Saturday...
Tonight..N wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow showers early in the evening. Freezing spray late.
Sat..N wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
Sat night..N gale to 45 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
Sun..N gale to 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
Sun night..N gale to 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon..N gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Tue..N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
Wed..N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mud Bay, AK
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location: 59.17, -135.4     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 180146
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
446 pm akst Fri nov 17 2017

Short term The current system is winding down with snow rates
much slower and some areas even mixing with rain as temperatures
push past 32 degrees for the first time in awhile.

Preferred the ec and gfs, the NAM was certainly an outlier with
mishandling a low in the SE gulf on the latest run. Very few
changes were made in the early portion of the forecast for tonight
and Saturday. Started making bigger changes late Saturday night
into Sunday.

The pressure gradient will continue to increased with gale
warnings in lynn canal and cross sound and later this evening for
stephens passage for the inside waters. A smattering of SCA on the
inside and outside waters will evolve as the low in the north-
central gulf moves to the southeast through Friday night. Strong
northerly outflow winds will be increasing tonight into Saturday.

Long term Sunday through Friday increasing anticyclonic flow
from the west will support clearing skies and more cold air
sliding from the north on Sunday. We lowered low temperatures for
Sunday morning and the high temperatures Sunday afternoon and
dried the forecast for all but the far southern panhandle as
scattered snow showers exit. But late Sunday we begin to see the
next system move into the central gulf. We have raised easterly
winds across the gulf to gales by Sunday night with the option to
continue through Monday. Many eyes on land will be looking for
more snow to develop across portions of the panhandle. However,
increasingly, an east- west orientation of the associated front
may limit snow in the north and north- central panhandle and focus
precipitation in the south and south- central areas. And any
potential wave development along the front would exacerbate this
trend. So currently, we expect 2 to 6 inches across the north and
central panhandle and up to 2 inches with some rain over the south
including sitka for the period of Monday and Monday night.

However, as the time period begins to fall in range of our higher
res models, we may need to back off these totals especially in the
juneau area where downsloping tends to dry the atmosphere.

We made little change Tuesday and Wednesday given poor
consistency of models. But should trends hold, we may allow our
gulf low to drop to the south, therefore, keeping the north drier
and potentially cooler than our current forecast with some rain or
snow in the south.

Ensembles do point to a potential pattern shift toward the
thanksgiving day holiday weekend. Temperatures begin to rise more
toward seasonal levels which would advance the snow-rain line
northward well into the central panhandle. We did nudge
temperatures upward Thursday and Friday into the low to mid 30s
for much of the northern panhandle. Be forewarned that our
temperatures may support rain as far north as juneau, but
confidence is not great enough to make this move yet.

Confidence is average Sunday into Monday and generally falls mid-
week. However, we were confident enough to raise temperatures and
turn inner channel winds southerly thanksgiving day into Friday.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Winter weather advisory until 9 pm akst this evening for akz026-
029.

Winter storm warning until 9 pm akst this evening for akz021-025.

Strong wind from 3 am akst Saturday through Sunday morning for
akz018.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz012-013-022-031-043-053.

Small craft advisory for pkz011-021-032>036-041-051-052.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz042.

Kv jwa
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EROA2 - Eldred Rock, AK 17 mi63 min N 31 G 41 33°F 1002 hPa15°F
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 56 mi61 min NE 4.1 G 8 32°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Haines - Haines Airport, AK8 mi33 minNW 710.00 miFair23°F19°F85%1007.7 hPa
Skagway, AK22 mi34 minNNE 17 G 2310.00 miFair28°F10°F47%1008.6 hPa

Wind History from AHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W6W9NW9W12NW11NW11NW10NW10NW12NW10NW10NW10NW11NW10NW9NW12NW11NW10NW10W11NW9NW9NW7
1 day agoNW9NW7
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W12NW13W12NW10CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW6CalmE7CalmW8NW3
2 days ago--W8
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NW563NW64NW7NW8NW8NW8NW8NW11NW12
G17
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Tide / Current Tables for Chilkat Inlet, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Chilkat Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:49 AM AKST     16.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:42 AM AKST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:36 AM AKST     2.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:49 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:02 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:33 PM AKST     18.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:30 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:21 PM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:03 PM AKST     -1.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
15.416.114.8128.34.92.62.44.48.112.215.717.817.91612.47.83.3-0.1-1.5-0.42.76.911

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point, Berner's Bay, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Cove Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:51 AM AKST     15.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:42 AM AKST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:37 AM AKST     2.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:46 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:58 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:35 PM AKST     17.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:31 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:21 PM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:04 PM AKST     -1.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
15.215.914.7128.44.92.72.44.47.91215.517.617.815.912.47.83.3-0.1-1.5-0.52.66.710.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.