Wednesday, August23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mud Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:21PM Wednesday August 23, 2017 12:21 AM AKDT (08:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:10AMMoonset 8:17PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ012 Northern Lynn Canal- 700 Pm Akdt Tue Aug 22 2017 Updated
Tonight..S wind 20 kt diminishing late. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the evening.
Wed..Variable wind 15 kt becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Wed night..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu night..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Fri..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mud Bay, AK
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location: 59.17, -135.4     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 222244
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
244 pm akdt Tue aug 22 2017

Short term through Thursday night a slow moving cold front
will be east of the area by early this evening. Low pressure over
the far southern gulf will drift ese to near haida gwaii by wed
evening. An occluded frontal system will move into the eastern
gulf by Thu evening. Used mainly the 12z namnest to handle
adjustments through Thu night, but did use some of the 15z sref
to help with pops.

Heaviest rain will be exiting east of the area early this evening
as cold front moves out. More showery precip will move in as low
moves toward the area later this evening and overnight. Still
could be a few tstms near and east of the low center over the gulf
tonight into Wed with forecast CAPE values around 300-400 j kg.

Think they should remain offshore though, so no mention for land
zones. Most of the showers will be over the southern half of the
area later tonight into Wed with low approaching, while areas
further N see less shower activity. Strongest winds will be in
band to east and north of low center with 25-30 kt likely over the
southeast gulf and far southern inner channels tonight into wed.

The showers and winds should diminish Wed night as low moves over
haida gwaii.

Next frontal system should spread rain into the area Thu afternoon
and evening. Further ahead of the front, showers will likely
increase in coverage ahead of the main rain band as low level
convergence increases over the area and shallow instability
continues. This system looks fairly wet, but nowhere close to the
rainfall amounts that occurred with the current system is
expected with the Thu night front at this point.

Long term Friday through Tuesday broad upper low tracks into
the ak gulf from the west moving high pressure ridge over the
panhandle eastward Friday into the weekend. Center of the low
will swing over prince william sound by Sunday with a second wave
just the west rotating into the south central gulf. Sunday night
into Monday expect the entire upper level low to push east with a
ridge building in behind, but some timing uncertainty. Another low
will move into the western gulf behind the ridge next week. At
the surface, occluded frontal boundary associated with the parent
low moving over the ak peninsula will cross the ak gulf then over
the panhandle through the day Thursday. This will end any brief
dry period for SE ak. As more surface short waves rotate around
the main low into the gulf bands of precip will move over the area
before finally beginning to diminish Sunday into Monday.

Potential for some areas of heavy rain with this system as
indicated by GFS integrated water vapor transport and naefs mean
precipitable water standardized anomaly of 1 to 1.5. However,
highest QPF depicted from these is mostly over the far southern
panhandle. Gulf winds around the waves increasing to at least
small craft to possible gale force due to barrier jet formation
along the front.

Still getting fair model agreement at least through early Sunday,
so used a blend of gfs ECMWF through then. Model spread rapidly
increases with respect to the timing of the exiting low and the
system moving in next week, so kept with wpc guidance for rest of
the extended range. Forecast confidence is initially above
average for these next systems but drops significantly by the end
of the weekend.

Hydrology With rain diminishing across the area, water levels
on area streams should drop off tonight. Some of the larger rivers
will continue to rise due to their slower reaction to the
rainfall, but none are expected to reach bankfull at this point.

Will most likely allow the flood advisory for the ketchikan area
to expire at 4 pm this afternoon.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Areal flood advisory until 4 pm akdt this afternoon for akz028.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz036-041-042.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz043.

Rwt prb
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EROA2 - Eldred Rock, AK 17 mi58 min SSW 18 G 22 55°F 1006.3 hPa52°F
SKTA2 - 9452400 - Skagway, AK 20 mi52 min 55°F 50°F1007.9 hPa
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 56 mi56 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 52°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Haines - Haines Airport, AK8 mi28 minE 7 G 1510.00 miOvercast55°F53°F93%1008.5 hPa
Skagway, AK22 mi29 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F52°F83%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from AHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE6E43E4E3W8SW3SE53CalmS3Calm4SE9E4E7E10
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1 day agoE5E4SE7E6E6SE7SE10SE10E5E4E6SE6SE10SE8SE8E6SE6SE8SE9
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2 days agoE7E8E9E946E7E6E8SE7E9SE7E6SE6SE64NE46SE4SE9SE7E5E4SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Chilkat Inlet, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Chilkat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:34 AM AKDT     18.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:39 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:10 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:51 AM AKDT     -2.86 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:11 PM AKDT     18.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:27 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:12 PM AKDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:17 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.91618.518.716.512.36.91.8-1.8-2.8-138.112.916.41817.314.4105.21.3-0.50.33.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point, Berner's Bay, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Cove Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:37 AM AKDT     18.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:39 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:09 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:52 AM AKDT     -2.92 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:13 PM AKDT     17.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:24 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:13 PM AKDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:15 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.615.818.218.516.412.26.91.8-1.8-2.9-1.22.87.912.616.217.817.214.4105.21.3-0.50.33.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.