Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mud Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:39AMSunset 3:08PM Saturday December 16, 2017 7:50 AM AKST (16:50 UTC) Moonrise 6:48AMMoonset 2:51PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ012 Northern Lynn Canal- 410 Am Akst Sat Dec 16 2017
.small craft advisory through late tonight...
Today..S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain then rain and snow showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow showers.
Sun..S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow showers.
Sun night..S wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft. Scattered snow showers and rain showers.
Mon..N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue..N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Wed..NE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mud Bay, AK
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location: 59.17, -135.4     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 161544
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
644 am akst Sat dec 16 2017

Short term today through Sunday night ... According to current
water vapor satellite imagery, an upper level ridge extends over
the eastern gulf and western british columbia, while a broad upper
level trough with embedded shortwaves spins aloft west of mainland
alaska and over the aleutian islands. Substantial cold air aloft
with this broad circulation is helping to produce an unstable air
mass. Lightning detection algorithms have already picked up on a
few lightning strikes near the aleutian islands this morning.

Current IR satellite shows what almost appears to be an agitated
cu field over a large area of the western gulf, where the
lightning strikes were detected this morning.

As one of the embedded shortwaves of the parent circulation begins
to lift northeast, this should pivot the area of thunderstorm
development to along the coastline near yakutat bay. Forecast
soundings for yakutat continue to show decent CAPE amounts and
sfc to 3km lapse rates greater than 7 degrees c km. We may see
additional lightning strikes where drier air mixes in aloft;
future WV satellite will be quite telling this afternoon. Due to
the colder air moving in with this next system, we should also
begin to see some snow mix in with the rain before eventually
going to a more showery regime in response to the cooler air.

In addition, the strong weather front, which brought gale force
winds along the eastern gulf waters and throughout some of the
inner channels, will continue to push east inland and begin to
weaken through this morning. Most locations should see winds
diminish throughout day. However, lynn canal and the skagway and
white pass areas will see winds increase this afternoon and into
tonight as the pressure gradient tightens between a developing low
pressure over the yukon territories and higher pressures over the
eastern gulf. The lynn canal marine areas will remain at small
craft advisory levels, and gusts to 40 mph will be possible in the
skagway and white pass areas. Also, blowing snow can be expected
for the white pass area during this timeframe, as new snow will
have fallen overnight last night and today.

Adjustments to the forecast were made using a combination of the
nam and ecmwf. Some high resolution models were incorporated into
some elements, including winds and qpf, and winds on land were
adjusted using hand analysis and MOS guidance. The gem was used to
update snow ratios, which was used to calculate snow amounts.

Long term Monday through Friday as of 10pm Friday, yet
another anomalously strong upper ridge continues to be advertised
by both operational models and their ensembles to rapidly build
over the gulf of alaska next week. Cool upper trough over the
northern gulf early on Monday will quickly be shunted off to the
southeast ahead of this building ridge. Lingering shower activity
on Monday will likely be in the form of snow even to sea level for
the northern and interior inner channels from haines and juneau
as far south as petersburg. Only light precip amounts are expected
and this will primarily be a case of the cold air chasing the
moisture so any snow accumulations would be minor.

Still looks like a very brief offshore flow even late Monday into
Tuesday. Northerly winds will develop over the northern inner
channels on Monday as the weak low offshore slides to the south.

Light northerly flow through the low levels will promote at least
some clearing by Monday night and Tuesday although will need to
watch for fog in places that are sheltered from the wind as the
ground will be saturated.

Low level flow becomes more nw'ly on Tuesday night into Wednesday
which is not necessarily a clear sky direction at times. Could see
some low level moisture and stratocumulus try to make a return
along the outer coast, however Wednesday should be another dry
day.

Upper ridge begins to shift east by late week with a series of
storm systems and their associated deep plumes of moisture riding
up the west side. At this time it appears the ridge will hold
strong enough to keep the deep fetch of moisture mainly to our
west, with only weakening fronts approaching from the west by
Thursday Friday. Unfortunately for snow lovers, we are hard
pressed to find any significant hope for snow in the future as
freezing levels rise to around 5 kft by late week under the strong
ridging aloft.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind until 9 am akst this morning for akz023.

Winter storm warning until 3 pm akst this afternoon for akz018.

Strong wind from this evening through late tonight for akz018.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz036-041>043-051-052.

Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-021-022-031>035-053.

Voveris del
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EROA2 - Eldred Rock, AK 17 mi87 min S 21 G 30 38°F 997 hPa36°F
SKTA2 - 9452400 - Skagway, AK 20 mi159 min 38°F 40°F998.9 hPa
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 56 mi85 min ESE 6 G 8.9 38°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
6
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Last
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E9
G12
SE3
E5
G11
E1
NE1
E1
S4
SE6
SE4
E4
G7
SE5
E5
E6
G10
E6
G12
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G12
E9
G16
E9
G17
E8
G14
E7
G13
NE9
G15
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G17
E11
G14
E8
G11
E8
G12
1 day
ago
E14
G25
E15
G21
E20
G29
E13
G24
E10
G17
SE20
G29
S10
G19
SE8
G12
SE8
E3
G7
SW3
N1
G4
--
SE2
G7
--
SE9
G13
SE10
SE5
G9
E7
G11
SE6
G10
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G9
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G8
N8
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G11
2 days
ago
E5
SE7
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G8
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G7
SE8
E8
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G10
SE4
E7
G10
E8
E6
G10
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G9
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SE6
E9
G17
E4
G8
SE7
G11
E7
G15
SE8
G12
E12
G22
E16
G23
E12
G20

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Haines - Haines Airport, AK8 mi57 minENE 15 G 298.00 miLight Rain38°F36°F93%997.5 hPa
Skagway, AK22 mi58 minSSW 22 G 3210.00 miLight Rain and Breezy39°F36°F89%997 hPa

Wind History from AHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E5E6E75W64W74E8
G15
E10
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G16
E11
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G19
E11
G19
NE14
G21
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G19
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G24
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G26
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G26
E15
G24
E13
G27
E15
G29
1 day agoNE14
G28
NE12
G31
E17
G31
E15
G31
E17
G30
E17
G27
E18
G28
E13
G28
E16
G26
E18
G27
E10
G23
E15
G25
E15
G23
E16
G23
SE13
G22
E14
G21
E10
G18
E8
G17
E10
G19
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G21
E6E8E8
G15
E8
2 days agoE9E6
G15
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G18
E10
G21
NE14
G24
NE12
G22
E11
G21
E11
G18
E13
G20
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G18
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G16
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G21
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NE12
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NE15
G25
E12
G19
E14
G24
E14
G22
NE11
G19
E14
G23
E15
G22
E14
G27

Tide / Current Tables for Chilkat Inlet, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Chilkat Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:38 AM AKST     3.52 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:47 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:52 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:35 AM AKST     17.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:51 PM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:02 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:12 PM AKST     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
14.813.911.88.85.93.93.75.38.512.115.217.117.215.612.48.34.10.9-0.602.66.29.913

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point, Berner's Bay, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Cove Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:00 AM AKST     14.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:39 AM AKST     3.59 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:47 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:37 AM AKST     17.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:52 PM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:04 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:13 PM AKST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
14.613.911.78.85.943.75.38.411.91516.917.115.512.48.34.10.9-0.6-02.569.712.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.