Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mud Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:39AMSunset 5:46PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 3:23 AM AKDT (11:23 UTC) Moonrise 3:48AMMoonset 4:44PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ012 Northern Lynn Canal- 309 Pm Akdt Mon Oct 16 2017
Tonight..S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 4 ft in the evening then 2 ft or less. Rain showers.
Tue..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
Tue night..S wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
Wed..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Wed night..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..N wind 20 kt becoming se 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mud Bay, AK
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location: 59.17, -135.4     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 170548
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
948 pm akdt Mon oct 16 2017

Update New model runs indicate a 60 kt low level jet moving
ashore at 925 mb sometime Wednesday morning, therefore, we updated
gusts from pelican south to sitka, prince of wales island, and
ketchikan during this time. We anticipate strong wind gusts of at
least 40 mph for this region, with the possibility of some gusty
winds to 30 mph spreading as far inland as wrangell.

Synopsis Sw jetstream over dixon entrance with unstable air to
the N and W of the core. Core speed around 130 knots. Lifted
indicies as low as -1 so we mentioned isolated thunderstorms along
the outer coast although lightning activity has been minimal so
far today. A 996 mb surface low is near CAPE saint elias tonight
and this center will gradually weaken through Tuesday. Radar shows
the numerous showers moving in from the west.

Short term The showers tonight are certain. Wind was a bit
trickier with a light southerly on the inside waters but
westerlies offshore. Seas laid down this afternoon so adjusted the
small craft advisories outside at the last minute. Used a blend of
the 16 12z GFS and the current forecasts as guidance. The next
system will develop south of sand point early Tuesday morning.

All operations models insist that this front is a strong one, but
reduced the gales slightly with strong warm advection ahead of the
front. Look for seas to build significantly behind this front on
Wednesday.

Long term Wednesday through Monday our general forecast will
persist another day, as only small changes can be made with any
degree of confidence. Wednesday a largescale upper low moves into
the eastern gulf and sticks around until early Thursday when
shortwave energy drops south from a more energetic arctic system.

How the inevitable surface low dances over the gulf waters may
have large effects on the forecast, especially across the northern
panhandle. Ensembles have favored a broader, perhaps double-
barreled system extending into the northeast gulf. This would mean
a more moist mid-week forecast with very, very low probability of
lowland snow. The operational GFS stubbornly takes the low well to
our south, meaning drier weather and perhaps cooler temperatures.

This scenario, which we deem less likely, may provide enough cool
air to support snow, should precipitation stick around. But we
must emphasize the word "drier" two sentences above. So let us
discount snow in the mid-range. Whatever the case, the southern
panhandle looks wet and mild. Winds over the gulf and southern
panhandle look to steadily decrease through Wednesday as the
system looses momentum and begins to weaken and sap its energy.

With the ECMWF supporting a more northerly position of the eastern
gulf low, we kept the chance of rain for the north, made rain
certain for the south, and steadily increased the rain chances
across the panhandle through Thursday into Friday as agreement
becomes stronger with short-wave energy spawning more low pressure
in the northern gulf, even in the gfs. By Friday, deeper onshore
flow ushers in potentially more organized moisture and a warming
trend into the weekend. Offshore flow ahead of the system has the
potential for a chance of snow with rain near skagway on Saturday,
but confidence is low.

Confidence falls for sure beyond the weekend into next week. But
models and ensembles hint at more interaction with tropical
systems from the western pacific. Where jets drive this deep
tropical energy, we have no real clue, but coastal areas from the
aleutians north to the bering strait and into the pacific
northwest and all points between, including southeast alaska,
will watch with interest.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz041.

Jc jwa
visit us at http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EROA2 - Eldred Rock, AK 17 mi59 min S 17 G 24 44°F 998.1 hPa38°F
SKTA2 - 9452400 - Skagway, AK 20 mi53 min 44°F 46°F999.5 hPa
BLTA2 - Bartlet Cove AK 56 mi57 min SE 1.9 G 6 40°F

Wind History for Juneau, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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E5
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SE8
G11
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SE1
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E5
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G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Haines - Haines Airport, AK8 mi29 minWNW 310.00 miOvercast38°F37°F100%1000.4 hPa
Skagway, AK22 mi30 minSSW 14 G 2110.00 miLight Rain44°F39°F83%999.8 hPa

Wind History from AHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11
G20
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E7E9E6E6
G15
E7SE8E8E8
G17
E7
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E6E7E84E5E5E53CalmNW6W3
1 day agoE7E6E6E6E10
G18
NW6NW9NW11W86E13
G20
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G14
E8E8E11
G20
E7
G18
E7
G17
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G25
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G19
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E86
2 days agoNW4W3CalmW5W6W9W9W8W7W11SE4E9E9
G18
E9
G18
E8NE8
G15
NE11
G16
E7E5E4CalmCalmE7SE11
G17

Tide / Current Tables for Chilkat Inlet, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Chilkat Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:47 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:05 AM AKDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:45 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:24 PM AKDT     17.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:44 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:47 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:34 PM AKDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
16.415.312.58.64.51.40.11.148.112.215.517.317.114.911.26.82.80.40.22.46.110.414.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point, Berner's Bay, Lynn Canal, Alaska
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Cove Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:46 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:06 AM AKDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:42 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:26 PM AKDT     17.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:42 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:47 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:35 PM AKDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
16.215.212.48.64.61.50.11.13.97.91215.317.116.914.811.26.82.90.40.22.3610.213.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.