Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pope-Vannoy Landing, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:46AMSunset 11:06PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 2:13 PM AKDT (22:13 UTC) Moonrise 1:28PMMoonset 2:27AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 352 Am Akdt Wed May 23 2018
.small craft advisory Thursday...
Today..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
Tonight..E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Thu..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
Thu night..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Fri..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pope-Vannoy Landing, AK
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location: 59.18, -154.08     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 231552 cca
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service anchorage ak
752 am akdt Wed may 23 2018

Analysis and upper levels
A 986 mb low spanning over much of the bering continues to move
eastward this morning. An upper level jet streak on the south
side of this low maxes out near 140 knots. In response, surface
winds along the aleutians have reached gale force through the
overnight hours. Ahead of the low, a leading front is bringing light
rain to the alaska peninsula.

Over the gulf, a weakening low continues to generate coastal
showers. Rain showers are also observed on radar this morning in
the matanuska valley and on the eastern side of the kenai
peninsula. Gusty southeast winds across western and southern
anchorage are still occurring early this morning due to a thermal
trough in place over the susitna valley. A large area of stratus
and fog that developed overnight persists this morning along the
southwest coast thanks to a relatively stable airmass out ahead of
the incoming bering front.

Model discussion
Models have been in good agreement for the near term with the
bering low and the weakening gulf low. Preference was given to
the NAM for higher resolution through the next 48 hours.

Uncertainty arises later this week with the position and timing
of a developing closed low along a front in the gulf - a few more
model runs are needed to increase confidence.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 Wed and
thu)...

the pattern will be slow to change for the next several days. The
broad trough over the gulf of ak will undergo a replacement cycle.

However, the net effect on sensible weather will be very little.

The trough (and embedded closed low) will be overcome and pushed
into the gulf coast by a warm occluded front from the aleutians
late today into thu. This will allow wet weather to persist from
the southern kenai peninsula through cordova. For inland areas
today, expect another round of afternoon showers. These will form
mainly along the mountains. Steering flow should carry them off to
the w-nw. This could favor some steadier rain over the northern
half of the susitna valley as we go into the overnight. With
little pattern change today, expect the gusty southeast winds to
once again plague west anchorage, palmer, the turnagain arm, and
parts of the copper river basin.

The warm occlusion ushers in the next trough on thu. This will
once again bring wet weather to kodiak island and nearly the
entire gulf coast. The front itself may provide enough "down-
inlet" offshore gradient to keep the southeast winds from getting
into anchorage Thu afternoon. With the warmer 850mb (5000')
temperatures, there is a bit more convective available potential
energy (cape) this time of year. While we don't think there is
potential for thunderstorms in this time period, there certainly
could be some heavier showers and graupel.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions will persist. The winds continue to be
tricky, lasting longer into the night than usual. Think there will
still be brief lull later this morning before they increase again
this afternoon. Showers will drift off the mountains, but
conditions should remainVFR. Offshore gradient should drop the
winds off earlier this evening into thu.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The frontal system currently stretched across the western alaska
peninsula early this morning will track slowly east to stall over
the eastern bering and central alaska peninsula just offshore of
southwest mainland alaska this afternoon before shearing apart
tonight through Thursday morning. Breezy east to southeasterly
winds will increase along the coast today and out of gaps and
passes in the alaska and aleutian ranges. With the approach of
the front helping to stabilize conditions somewhat, expect to see
precipitation limited to isolated to scattered showers with any
thunderstorms remaining north of the area. For Thursday, generally
easterly flow will continue with a trough brushing by to the
north increasing shower coverage over northern portions of the
kuskokwim valley and delta.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A broad vertically stacked level low in the southwestern bering
will gradual fill as it progresses east to the central bering
through this afternoon and evening. The low will then drift slowly
south tonight and Thursday, crossing the aleutian chain near 170w
Thursday night. Ridging will then build in over the bering from
the northwest.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Beginning Friday, an upper level low will continue to dominate
the weather over the southern mainland bringing continued cloudy,
showery, and somewhat cooler weather to the region, especially
along coastal areas. A shortwave trough will move north into the
gulf on Friday bringing another round of rain to the coast though
precipitation should stay mostly on the east side of the mountain
ranges. A more well defined low pressure system will move into the
northern pacific southern gulf region by Saturday keeping cloudy
and showery conditions over coastal areas, though due to the more
southern and eastern location of the low precipitation should be
focused more over southeast alaska, with only isolated to
scattered showers over southcentral. With plenty of breaks in
between cloud cover, especially for more inland locations, temps
should be able to warm up into the 60's over the weekend. By
memorial day, models are all showing the low over the gulf moving
east out of the area allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in
by the afternoon. This should lead to a pretty decent day for
outdoor activities over most of the southern mainland.

Further west, a frontal system will rapidly move east across the
aleutians and bering sea Sunday through Tuesday, following closely behind
the transiting ridge. Models are not in agreement regarding timing
of this system, with the GFS bringing a front across the west
coast by Monday afternoon and the ec delaying it into Tuesday.

Regardless, there is consensus that there will only be a brief
period of quasi summer-like weather for the region as we head into
next week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 176 177.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ko
southcentral alaska... Mso
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Jer
long term... Kvp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AUGA2 - Augustine Island, AK 41 mi44 min ESE 6 G 7 44°F 1008.9 hPa44°F
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 88 mi84 min NE 14 G 16 43°F 43°F2 ft1006.2 hPa (-1.4)41°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Iliamna, Iliamna Airport, AK60 mi21 minE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F36°F56%1007.2 hPa

Wind History from AIL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S8SE13SE10SE11S12S9S9S10SE10SE5CalmNE4E6E7SE8E6E9E6E12E10E10SE13E8
1 day agoCalmSE7S7S6S6SW9SW8SW5S3W6W6CalmCalmW3CalmCalmW4SE3SE4S5S74S9S7
2 days agoE7E9E8E9E7SE3NE4CalmCalmW4NW4N7N6NE5S3E4NW6NW5N4N4SE5E4CalmE5

Tide / Current Tables for Nordyke Island, Kamishak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Nordyke Island
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Wed -- 04:26 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:35 AM AKDT     3.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:27 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:26 AM AKDT     11.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:27 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:57 PM AKDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:00 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:22 PM AKDT     13.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.69.57.14.93.73.64.66.38.510.511.611.510.48.563.51.71.21.93.96.79.812.313.6

Tide / Current Tables for Iliamna Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Iliamna Bay
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Wed -- 04:25 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:29 AM AKDT     3.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:21 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:28 AM AKDT     11.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:24 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:51 PM AKDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:01 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:24 PM AKDT     13.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.296.54.43.23.24.36.18.310.311.411.410.38.35.83.31.61.123.96.69.511.813.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.