Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Pope-Vannoy Landing, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:55AMSunset 7:45PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 3:07 AM AKDT (11:07 UTC) Moonrise 1:37PMMoonset 9:10PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 308 Pm Akdt Mon Sep 25 2017
.gale warning Tuesday...
Tonight..NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft after midnight.
Tue..NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
Wed..N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Wed night..N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Thu through Sat..NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pope-Vannoy Landing, AK
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location: 59.18, -154.08     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 260012
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
412 pm akdt Mon sep 25 2017

Analysis and upper levels
A stacked and weakening upper low is located over bristol bay
with an elongated trough extending east across the southwest
mainland to across southcentral alaska range. At the surface the
associated low is drifting south across bristol bay with its
frontal trough extending from the kuskokwim delta to along the
alaska range. Light rain was evident along the frontal boundary
with a few showers across bristol bay and southcentral. Satellite
imagery shows a broad cloud band, associated with a developing
surface low and frontal trough, streaming north from the ne
pacific to over the gulf. High pressure continues its hold over
the western central bering sea and aleutians.

Model discussion
Models still differ with the handling of the low complex over the
southwestern gulf. The GFS seems to have been the more consistent
of the solutions over the past day or so. So will continue in that
direction on this forecast issuance.

Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
There are pockets of lingering rain showers on the latest radar
image from the kenai and the middleton island radars. Generally
expecting mild weather this evening and most of tomorrow for the
anchorage metro area. The longwave pattern features a closed low
over the ak peninsula aloft and at the surface, the low is
reflected over the western gulf of alaska southwest of kodiak.

This new system will bring gales and precipitation to kodiak and
much of the gulf of alaska. Late Tuesday and into Wednesday expect
moisture to advect northeastward into prince william sound and
portions of southcentral ak.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
A drying trend is underway across the southwest mainland as the
low near the alaska peninsula weakens and moves away from the
area. These conditions will persist through early Wednesday as
offshore flow increases ahead of the next north pacific low
moving up towards kodiak island. Fog will remain possible tonight
across portions of the kuskokwim delta and lower kuskokwim valley
as clearing skies promote enhanced radiational cooling processes,
however fog potential should still diminish over time through
Wednesday morning as the offshore gradient increases. The
possibility of rain will return to areas along the akpen and
aleutian range by late Wednesday as the front associated with the
approaching low moves into the region.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The combination of the dissipating low north of cold bay and the
next system approaching kodiak island will keep the bulk of the
shower activity focused on the southeast bering from dutch harbor
to the akpen through midweek. Gale force winds will develop over
the coastal waters south of the akpen by Tuesday as the next front
arrives, with small craft advisory conditions farther north into
bristol bay. The western half of the bering will remain in a much
more benign pattern in north to northwest flow as high pressure
builds slowly eastward through Wednesday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Day 3 (Thursday) will start off with a sfc ridge centered over
shemya that extends across the vast majority of the bering sea and
an area of low pressure over kodiak island. This low pressure
system will bring decent rainfall to the gulf coast and kodiak
island before it weakens on Friday and begins to drift eastward.

The sfc ridge over the bering will quickly retreat into the north
pacific over the weekend as a pattern shift begins to take hold
across alaska and alaskan waters. The pattern change comes in the
form of the upper level pattern shifting from a more subtropical
(meridional) influence to a more arctic (zonal) influence. This
will keep the subtropical jet well south of alaska while the
arctic jet begins to strengthen as cold air begins to build up
over russia. It's that time of the year where the cold air over
russia helps low pressure systems develop strengthen over
kamchatka and siberia and the models are hinting at the potential
for several robust system to push off the russian coast and into
the bering sea next weekend and through the first half of next
week. It's way too soon to give any details on any potential
system next week but the pattern change is on the way.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 120 131 132 138 150.

Synopsis and model discussion... Rc
southcentral alaska... Ps
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Cb
long term... Mc

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AUGA2 - Augustine Island, AK 41 mi38 min NE 11 G 15 49°F 1008.4 hPa44°F
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 88 mi78 min NE 23 G 27 49°F 50°F3 ft1005.4 hPa (-1.2)44°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Iliamna, Iliamna Airport, AK60 mi75 minN 710.00 miFair41°F37°F86%1009 hPa

Wind History from AIL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN4N4NE3NE5N5N5N7N4N8NE6NE8E6E9E11E10E9SE8E6E6E3NE4N5N9N7
1 day agoSW6SW11SW8SW6SW6SW5W3W3CalmW8W8SW8SW6W9W7W3SW3SW4SW7NW3CalmNW3N3N3
2 days ago--E7E9E10

Tide / Current Tables for Nordyke Island, Kamishak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Nordyke Island
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Tue -- 01:01 AM AKDT     2.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:18 AM AKDT     12.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:11 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:13 PM AKDT     5.77 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:35 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:00 PM AKDT     13.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:02 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:10 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Iliamna Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Iliamna Bay
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Tue -- 12:55 AM AKDT     2.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:20 AM AKDT     12.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:09 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:07 PM AKDT     4.90 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:36 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:02 PM AKDT     12.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:00 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:05 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.