Saturday, March24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Pope-Vannoy Landing, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 8:26PM Friday March 23, 2018 11:50 PM AKDT (07:50 UTC) Moonrise 9:17AMMoonset 1:36AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 354 Pm Akdt Fri Mar 23 2018
.small craft advisory tonight...
Tonight..NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Sat..W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat night..Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Snow.
Sun and Sun night..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Mon through Wed..W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pope-Vannoy Landing, AK
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location: 59.18, -154.08     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 240039
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
439 pm akdt Fri mar 23 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The large upper level ridge remains over southcentral alaska and
eastward into the yukon territory with the main upper level low
center to the northwest of the gulf of anadyr in eastern russia. A
weakening front is slowly moving through southwest mainland
alaska today but will mostly dissipate as it crosses the alaska
and aleutian ranges. Colder air is evident in satellite imagery
over the central to western bering sea from the presence of the
cumulus clouds and showers in that area. Most of this colder air
will remain well west of mainland alaska as a low in the western
aleutians moves to the northeast and cuts off the colder air.

Model discussion
Models are in good agreement through the first day-and-a-half but
start to significantly diverge after this in the eastern bering
sea. The ECMWF has been used for the afternoon package its its
track and speed make the most sense. The GFS continues a trend of
being too strong and too far north and the gem is significantly
farther south. Model differences over the gulf and southcentral
alaska are much less than in the eastern bering and southwest
mainland alaska.

Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. The though of
stratus overnight was considered but with the dry windy past few
days and the subsidence inversion weakening, it is more likely
that there will not be any fog or stratus at panc overnight.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 Sat and

a weak front is stretching out over kodiak island as it makes a
slow trek towards the southern kenai. There is weak upper level
elongated energy associated with this feature. This will bring
some mid and high level clouds to southcentral in the overnight
hours. There is some uncertainty regarding the potential of some
low cloud development across the knik arm northern cook inlet
early Sat am. The afore mentioned energy and high clouds will
likely keep much stratus from developing, but can't rule it out
completely as some moisture backs up along the chugach mountains
for a brief period in the morning.

As a surface low develops along the decaying front overnight, this
will bring another period of offshore flow to the usual places
(whittier, thompson pass, seward). The resulting winds will not be
anywhere near as strong as earlier this week. The gradient will
favor more of a northwest (instead of north) direction, so we
expect the strongest winds through the barren islands. These winds
will be short lived in the morning as the low pulls away quickly
and a weak upper-level ridge slides in.

A parent low over the eastern bering will sling yet another front
towards kodiak island early sun. This feature is quite a bit
stronger than the afore mentioned front and will have much more
moisture to work with. Thus, have kept pops quite high from kodiak
up through the gulf coast prince william sound. The front slows as
it slides across the gulf. Just as it seems about ready to stall
out, another piece of energy comes along from the west and
reinvigorates it. This leads to a triple- point low forming along
the front over the northwestern gulf late sun. As this low tracks
through the northern gulf, it will produce an increase in easterly
flow across into prince william sound and through the turnagain
arm. If this tracks holds true, it should allow enough cold air to
be pulled from N to S across southern ak. This should result in
most of the precipitation for the gulf area falling as snow. Not
expecting anything extraordinary at this point, but this looks to
produce a few inches of wet snow in seward and whittier. For
inland areas (anchorage, palmer), it does not look favorable for
much (if any) precipitation through the weekend with robust
cross-barrier flow.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The weather front that came onshore yesterday is falling apart
over the lower kuskokwim valley, with fairly light precip falling
around sleetmute but coming to an end in the next few hours.

Meanwhile, a break in the weather is moving in from the bering
with clearing skies over the delta and bristol bay zones. This
will likely lead to some fog development again tonight across the
area, with thickest most widespread fog likely up in the lower
kuskokwim valley where the snow occurred most recently. Saturday
will be a nice day overall across the area, before east southeast
winds start to pick up Saturday night with clouds and rain snow
showers approaching the area by Sunday morning. This next storm
doesn't look like a big impact for the southwest mainland as the
low center itself stays out to see and drifts into the northern
bering by the end of the weekend. This should result in cloudy and
showers conditions for the start of the week with temperatures
near the freezing mark across much of the area.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Clouds are already building into the area in advance of the next
storm that is currently approaching the western aleutians. Rain
and gusty (gale-force) winds will impact the central aleutians
tonight as the low moves into the bering. This low will largely
stay at the same strength as it moves to near the pribilof islands
Saturday night and then starts to drift northward and weaken for
the start of next week. This storm isn't going to have a very
strong or organized front associated with it, so the heaviest
precipitation and strongest (gale-force) winds will be confined to
the immediate vicinity of the low pressure center.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Extended forecast for Sunday and Monday remains on track, with a
low in the bering sea trailing a front through southwest alaska
and then developing a triple point low south of the aleutian chain
and moving it onshore in the gulf coast. This system still looks
like it will weaken rapidly as it moves northward, dumping most of
the precipitation along the gulf coast. After this system moves
through, uncertainty in the model solutions remains high, as the
run-to-run consistency has been poor. Yesterday's ridge on
Wednesday is now a strengthening low, with varying positions and
speeds in the gulf of alaska, depending on which model solution
you choose. General track currently pushes this next low to the
northeast by Thursday, but where the low moves onshore will have
much effect on how much precipitation falls along the gulf coast
and when. Currently, ec is the fastest and furthest west
solution, with the canadian regional taking the red lantern award
as it pushes the low into the panhandle, and the GFS solution
lying somewhere in the middle. Meanwhile, all three models show a
ridge building in the bering sea, which is consistent with
yesterday's forecast. For Wed through fri: high confidence in
improving weather for southwest, the ak pen and aleutians, with
moderate confidence that a low will affect the eastern kenai and
prince william sound. Amounts and locations of precipitation east
of the kenai peninsula are still highly uncertain for the end of
the week.&&

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gales 130 131 177 413.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ez
southcentral alaska... Mo
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ad
long term... Lf

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AUGA2 - Augustine Island, AK 41 mi50 min W 25 G 33 32°F 1009.8 hPa (-0.5)20°F
46077 - Shelikof Strait, AK 88 mi60 min S 3.9 G 5.8 37°F 38°F3 ft1013.2 hPa (+0.6)29°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Iliamna, Iliamna Airport, AK60 mi57 minNW 17 G 2310.00 miFair28°F21°F75%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from AIL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN5NE3NE5N5N4NW4N6CalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmS3CalmSW9NW6CalmW10NW12
1 day agoN8N10Calm4NE6N6N7N8NE7N6N8NE4N7N6N3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3W5W5NW5
2 days agoW10NW7W10W12W12NW9NW12N14

Tide / Current Tables for Nordyke Island, Kamishak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Nordyke Island
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Sat -- 02:08 AM AKDT     4.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:47 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:35 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 08:04 AM AKDT     13.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:05 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:05 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:06 PM AKDT     1.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:40 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:36 PM AKDT     10.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Iliamna Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Iliamna Bay
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Sat -- 02:02 AM AKDT     3.97 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:48 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:35 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 08:03 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:06 AM AKDT     13.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:59 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:00 PM AKDT     1.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:38 PM AKDT     11.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.