Friday, March24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Pope-Vannoy Landing, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 8:29PM Friday March 24, 2017 6:05 AM AKDT (14:05 UTC) Moonrise 5:12AMMoonset 2:23PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ138 Shelikof Strait- 339 Am Akdt Fri Mar 24 2017
.small craft advisory Saturday...
Today..NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
Tonight..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
Sat..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
Sat night..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sun through Mon..N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pope-Vannoy Landing, AK
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location: 59.18, -154.08     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 241157
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
357 am akdt Fri mar 24 2017

Analysis and upper levels
Dominant high pressure has maintained over the eastern bering and
is continuing to bring clear skies to southwest alaska and western
parts of southcentral alaska. The main trough sits over eastern
portions of southcentral alaska and has brought some light snow
to some of these areas. West of the ridge, a front is starting to
move in over the western and central aleutians bringing rain and
gale force winds to the islands.

Model discussion
For the most part the models are in good agreement through the mid
term. However, there are some differences with a low moving to
south of the eastern aleutians on Sunday. The ec brings the low
the furthest north and then has it absorbed into the low further
to the west. The other models keep the low tracking east out ahead
of the westerly low for a while longer before stalling it and
having it absorbed. Except for the gem which always keeps it

Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The surface pressure gradients will increase across southcentral
tonight as the trough over the gulf intensifies some. As a result,
outflow winds across the north gulf coast (valdez/thompson
pass/copper river delta), eastern kenai peninsula, and the
matanuska valley will increase this evening and hold into Saturday
morning. Winds will then decrease Saturday afternoon and evening
as pressure gradients relax. The proximity of the upper trough
will continue the threat of snow showers over the northern gulf
and portions of the copper river basin into Saturday. Snow showers
will likely become more widespread across the northern gulf coast
on Saturday/Saturday night as upper trough overhead strengthens.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Crystal clear skies remain the norm once again as a strong area of
high pressure centered near the bering strait retains full control
of the weather. The continuation of the broken record pattern
means more sunshine and seasonable temperatures during the day and
cool temperatures at night. Most areas are forecast to remain
above 0 though thanks to steady northeast winds. Thus, while the
winds will keep nighttime lows from dropping as far as they could,
the resultant wind chills will definitely remind those venturing outside
that old man winter isn't going out without a fight. For the next
several nights, wind chills in most areas are aiming for a few
degrees on either side of 10 below. However, twelve and a half
hours of daylight (and counting) will still make for healthy
temperature recoveries well into the 20s during the day under
mostly sunny skies.

Short term forecast bering sea/aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A gale force front is pushing across the western and central
aleutians and is the cause of the most active weather in all of
alaska this morning. The front is wrapped around the northeast
side of a low that is nearing its peak intensity as it approaches
the aleutians. The front will already begin weakening later this
afternoon into tonight as the parent low weakens and halts its
approach to the western aleutians. Showery conditions with gusty
southeast winds will remain the norm right through the weekend as
the pattern remains warm and wet, but total precipitation amounts
will be light. By Sunday, another low will advance any heavier
precipitation further east into the eastern aleutians, but a very
stubborn high pressure system over the northern bering will
curtail significant northward progress for any areas of
precipitation and associated low pressure systems.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The ridging over the bering sea continues through Saturday before
an upstream north pacific low pressure system pushes the ridge
into the gulf of alaska by Monday. Meanwhile, an upper level
closed low will be positioned over the anchorage bowl with an
associated trough extending into the gulf from Saturday through
Tuesday, before merging with several weak north pacific lows.

The next major storm force low tracks towards the eastern
aleutians by Thursday morning, with an associated weather front
entering the gulf. This brings a pattern change with the offshore
flow over the southcentral region diminishing, and shifting to
onshore southerly flow. There is uncertainty with timing of how
long the arctic trough stalls over the southcentral region. The
gfs model is showing a faster solution, and the ECMWF was slower
with this synoptic feature. Meanwhile, by Thursday the jet stream
transitions to a southwesterly flow just south of the eastern
aleutians extending eastward into the lower southeastern gulf.

This enhances storm tracks from the north pacific area into the
eastern aleutians/gulf region. The forecast confidence is low as
we head into midweek and beyond due to the uncertainty with the
timing/strength with the upcoming low pressure systems as they
track towards the southwest/southcentral regions.

Afc watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gales... 172 173 174 175 176 177 178.

Heavy freezing spray... 121 185.

Synopsis and model discussion... Dk
southcentral alaska... Bc
southwest alaska/bering sea/aleutians... Jw
long term... Pd

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AUGA2 - Augustine Island, AK 41 mi36 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 24°F 1012.3 hPa10°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Iliamna, Iliamna Airport, AK60 mi13 minNNE 810.00 miFair10°F-2°F58%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from AIL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN5NW7N6N4N3E3CalmS3S43NW7N7NW11NW11NW12N6N11NW6N8NW4NW73NW4N8
1 day agoN4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4S3S5SE3S5CalmCalmNE5N4Calm5CalmCalmN7NW9N7CalmNW4
2 days agoE3N3NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmS6S5E4CalmN4NE5NE4NE4NE4N3CalmW3CalmCalmNW4NW3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Nordyke Island, Kamishak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Nordyke Island
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Fri -- 01:22 AM AKDT     11.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:11 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:14 AM AKDT     5.00 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:04 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:59 PM AKDT     12.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:23 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:41 PM AKDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:41 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Iliamna Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Iliamna Bay
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Fri -- 01:24 AM AKDT     11.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:08 AM AKDT     4.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:11 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:02 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:01 PM AKDT     12.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:19 PM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:35 PM AKDT     1.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT

Ground Weather Radar Station King Salmon
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.