Sunrise 5:30 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 2:30 PM   Moonset 4:13 AM

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PKZ012 Northern Lynn Canal- 225 Pm Akdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Tonight - NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Sat - NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Sat night - NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Sun - S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Sun night - S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Mon - N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Tue - S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wed - Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 192236 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 236 PM AKDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SHORT TERM
Calm weather and clear skies continue this afternoon across the panhandle. Temperatures continue to run warm this afternoon with the clear skies. The clear skies are expected to continue into tomorrow as high pressure starts to move to the east. The best chance of seeing a pattern change to more cloudy and wet weather looks to happen this weekend as a decaying front approaches from the south. Guidance continues to slow down the idea of precipitation and cloud cover for the area so changed the forecast to reflect this. Temperatures will also raised for the high tomorrow as well with the increased likelihood of seeing more optimal warming during the day tomorrow. Currently, the best chances of seeing any measurable precipitation will be across the southern panhandle.

LONG TERM
A shift in the pattern is underway in the long range forecast, as more active weather returns to the panhandle Monday and potentially through the first half of the week - though active in this case means occasional chances of rain, rather than any strong organized systems.

Aloft the ridge which has been over the panhandle is slowly being shifted towards a more W/E axis as opposed to its previous N/S axis as an impulse of energy begins building a trough along a similar W/E axis to its south. Ultimately, this trough will succeed in advancing N, successfully displacing the ridge on Sunday. This will bring with it a weak occluding frontal band, and some chances of showers across the area. The dynamics with the system don't look all that impressive, given a distinct lack of upper or mid level support, and a lack of any significant amount of moisture. The possibility of cyclonic vorticity advection along the trough axis contributing to some enhanced precipitation (and possibly even an embedded wave within the front), which could move into the southern panhandle is a possibility. At this time though, that is far from set in stone, as the trough - if it builds slightly more than anticipated, could just as easily develop a wave which impacts Canada more than it does SE AK.

Afterwards, rapidly growing disagreement in the operational guidance, driven by the collapse of the organized steering flow aloft over SE AK, necessitates a turn towards reliance on ensembles.
A low over the Central Gulf - associated with the advancing trough, may attempt to veer inland towards SE AK. Should this happen, anticipate precipitation to overspread the panhandle. Conversely, if the low veers off in a different direction, SE AK could remain dry for Monday, aside from a few showers, and potentially through the remainder of the week. For the time being, chose to keep some chances of showers in the forecast on Monday - but the potential does exist for skies to be clearer than currently anticipated, should the relevant low not move into the area, and offshore flow take over. Confidence is starting to grow that Tuesday onwards, may favor drier weather - along with corresponding clearer skies, and greater diurnal shifts.

Made some changes to the sky and PoP grids to reflect the greater potential for drier weather Tuesday onwards, along with some minor changes to temperatures to increase the diurnal range.
Additionally did some work to reflect changes in winds based on the drier weather.



AVIATION
VFR conditions will persist across the panhandle with clear skies and localized afternoon sea breezes through the TAF period. Winds go near calm and variable overnight. Winds increase during the afternoon, but should remain less than 15 kt with an isolated gusts up to 20 kt possible.



AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

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