Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seldovia, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 8:45PM Thursday March 30, 2017 12:30 PM AKDT (20:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:11AMMoonset 10:47PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 350 Am Akdt Thu Mar 30 2017
.small craft advisory through tonight...
Today..E wind 10 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Tonight..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
Fri..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri night..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia city, AK
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location: 59.45, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 301240
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
440 am akdt Thu mar 30 2017

Analysis and upper levels
The upper level shortwave that brought all the snowfall for the
anchorage bowl yesterday has exited northward into the central
alaska interior. While upstream an amplified ridge extends
through the gulf across the aleutian range into the bristol bay
interior. Meanwhile, a large complex low is positioned south of
the central aleutians. The associated occluded front is
approaching the eastern aleutians stretching just south of the
lower southwestern gulf region this morning. This coincides with
the satellite imagery reflecting a large plume of moisture
entering the aforementioned region, and spreading along the
eastern to central aleutians. The radar imagery is showing a few
lingering snow showers along the northern gulf coastal communities.

Looking at the southwest alaska region, they remain under
offshore flow with continued dry conditions. While the bering sea
has predominantly easterly flow with marine layer stratus.

Model discussion
The models remain in good agreement with the next low pressure
system located over the north pacific. The NAM was the preferred
model through the short-term forecast. The jet stream has
transitioned to a southwesterly flow as it enters the western
gulf, before transitioning to northwesterly flow along the
southeast panhandle. This pattern will bring warmer temperatures
to the southcentral region. The forecast confidence is above
average as we head toward the weekend.

Aviation
Panc... Conditions will transition toVFR this morning. Look for
the northerly winds to increase this afternoon as the pressure
gradient strengthens with a weather front entering the gulf.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A strong front moving in from the southwest will surge across the
gulf and into south central alaska today. This front will be
accompanied by fairly heavy precipitation along and near the
coast. Inland locations will remain mostly dry through Friday
night due to strong southeast flow across the coastal mountain
ranges. The front will also bring much warmer air, allowing snow
to change over to rain fairly quickly across coastal locations.

This warmer air will move inland on Friday, with temperatures
climbing into the 40s at many locations on Friday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The front currently stretched across the eastern aleutians and
alaska peninsula pushes north later today spreading snow and gusty
winds across the southwest mainland. Gusty east to northeasterly
winds are expected to be strong along the boundary which brings
blowing snow impacts to the alaska peninsula into Friday morning.

Winds increase across bristol bay late morning with snow
developing in the afternoon. An east to west oriented low level
jet associated with the front limits snow through today as strong
winds along the range keeps most of the area downsloped. However,
the flow weakens tonight as the surface low approaches sand point
which brings increased chances for snow. By Friday morning, the
front orients along a north to south position from the alaska
peninsula to western bristol bay and the kuskokwim. The boundary
stalls through Saturday, therefore snow amounts were increased
especially along and west of dillingham. Snow amounts may need
adjusting with the next package as there is still a bit of
uncertainty with the track of the surface low.

Short term forecast bering sea/aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Winds increase this morning across the eastern half of the bering
as a north pacific low moves a front north toward the southern
mainland. Gale to storm force winds are expected to impact marine
waters through Friday night with the strongest winds along and
south of the eastern aleutians and alaska peninsula. Snow develops
along the frontal boundary mixed with rain along the eastern
aleutians. Cold air advecting in behind the low is expected to
change precipitation to all snow by this afternoon. Across the
western waters... Ridging along kamchatka moves slowly toward the
western aleutians with a lighter northerly flow and low clouds the
dominant pattern through the end of the week.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
(from yesterdays forecast discussion)
following the chinook on Friday, the possibility of another
chinook on Saturday is growing. Regardless if the chinook happens,
temperatures overnight on Friday will likely remain above
freezing for much of southcentral alaska with Saturday high
temperatures in the 40s once again. Southwest alaska will not see
the extremes that southcentral will because the storm track
favors the warmer air pushing eastward into the gulf of alaska. As
the active weather pattern remains entrenched across the region,
a series of low pressure systems will move into the gulf of alaska
through the upcoming week. This will allow continued pushes of
warm and moist air back toward southcentral alaska which could
quite possibly keep high temperatures above freezing for the next
week. The gulf coast should continue to get slammed with rainfall
at lower levels and snowfall toward higher elevations much much of
inland alaska will remain on the dry side as most locations
should remain downsloped. This pattern really shows no signs of
breaking so until something changes, this warm and spring-like
pattern will continue.

Afc watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Storm warning 119 130 131 138 139 150 155 172.

Gale warning 120 125 132 136 137 140 160 165 170 171 173>176 180.

Heavy frz spray 179 185.

Synopsis and model discussion... Pd
southcentral alaska... Bl
southwest alaska/bering sea/aleutians... Kh
long term... Mc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 1 mi43 min 38°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 12 mi53 min 38°F3 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 17 mi31 min NE 5.1 G 6 31°F 996.6 hPa (-2.9)29°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 39 mi31 min E 37 G 42 36°F 994.8 hPa (-3.7)29°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK1 mi38 minNNE 80.25 miSnow Freezing Fog31°F28°F92%997.7 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK18 mi38 minENE 1210.00 miOvercast36°F24°F62%998.1 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW13SW13SW14SW12SW12
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SW10SW11SW9SW11SW10SW10SW3CalmNE4NE4NE4E3NE6NE6NE8NE7NE14NE12
1 day agoSE4SE3S4CalmCalmS3SW3N5CalmW34W3CalmNW4NW3Calm33W4W3W6SW10SW9SW11
2 days agoE3S5S5CalmSW4SW4W3CalmNE3CalmCalmNE3NE6CalmCalmN3E5CalmCalmCalmCalmNE6NE5E4

Tide / Current Tables for Port Chatham, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Port Chatham
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Thu -- 04:11 AM AKDT     16.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:37 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:11 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:21 AM AKDT     -3.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:45 PM AKDT     15.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:46 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:35 PM AKDT     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.37.71215.316.816138.53.5-0.7-3-2.7-04.18.612.615.215.714.110.66.32.3-0.3-0.6

Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Homer
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:29 AM AKDT     21.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:35 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:09 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:54 AM AKDT     -3.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:03 PM AKDT     20.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:45 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:08 PM AKDT     -0.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.17.513.418.521.421.418.613.77.71.9-2.3-3.6-1.63.18.914.618.820.419.215.710.65.31-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.