Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seldovia, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 9:51AMSunset 4:27PM Monday January 15, 2018 10:23 PM AKST (07:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:47AMMoonset 2:53PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 312 Pm Akst Mon Jan 15 2018
Tonight..NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas building to 3 ft. Rain.
Tue..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Wed..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu through Fri..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seldovia city, AK
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location: 59.45, -151.72     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 160115
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
415 pm akst Mon jan 15 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The active weather continues across the gulf and southern
mainland, while more benign and showery conditions persist across
the bering sea and aleutians. A weakening baroclinic zone was
evident across the gulf coast to over the matanuska
valley talkeetna mountains. Snow fell along this boundary over the
matanuska valley talkeetnas while warm air kept precipitation as
rain along the coast. Snow has diminished across much of the
copper river basin, except the talkeetna mountains, however
patchy low clouds have lingered on. A weak barrier jet continued
small craft conditions near the central gulf coast as well as
prince william sound. Further west, the broad upper level trough
with embedded short waves in concert with low level cold advection
has keep conditions on the unstable side across much of the
bering sea and aleutians. This was evidenced by a large area of
showers (mostly snow) across the aforementioned areas. Some
isolated mixed shower activity was observed over the southwest
mainland.

Model discussion (through Wednesday afternoon)
Models overall are in good agreement and reasonable with the
handling of synoptic features through Wednesday afternoon.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist
through tonight. Llws with mixed rain and snow is expected to
develop Tuesday morning.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
An easterly upper level jet stream out ahead of deep mature low
over the northeast pacific will drive a warm front westward
across the gulf of alaska and southcentral tonight. This will
bring warm and wet conditions to the gulf coast, with snow levels
rising to 2000 ft or higher. With northerly low level flow out
ahead of the warm front, the front edge of precipitation will have
no problems spreading over the kenai and chugach mountains.

Surface temperatures will be just below freezing, so it looks
really good for freezing rain from the western kenai peninsula up
to anchorage. Thus, have issued winter weather advisories for
light ice accumulation. Strong easterly downslope flow will kick
in behind the front by midday Tuesday, so precipitation will cut
off and temperatures will warm above freezing.

The matanuska valley and southern susitna valley will be right on
the northern periphery of precipitation. Do expect some gusty
northeast winds to develop overnight in the matanuska valley which
will cause temps to rise above freezing. Will need to keep an eye
on northern extent of precip because there could be areas of
freezing rain where temps remain below freezing. Another area to
watch will be the copper river basin where forecast soundings also
favor freezing rain tonight. Right now it looks like the bulk of
precip should remain near the chugach mountains.

The pacific low will make its way to kodiak island Tuesday night,
with lots of wind and rain across the gulf. As the low reaches the
western gulf, easterly winds will spread through prince william
sound, passage canal, and turnagain arm. At this point, it looks
like winds will remain below warning levels (75 mph or more), but
portage valley turnagain arm could come close Tuesday night
through Wednesday. As the low continues westward along the alaska
peninsula on Wednesday winds will push into parts of anchorage and
the matanuska, with temps likely peaking in the mid 40s. This
storm system will begin to fall apart Wednesday night, with precip
and winds tapering off most places and temps beginning to fall.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Some lingering showers along the southern mainland will taper off
this evening, leaving some residual low level moisture in its
wake which will aide in patchy fog development over some areas
tonight into Tuesday morning. The next front approaches the
southwest mainland from the gulf Tuesday morning. The front will
break apart as it pushes through the rest of southwest alaska but
still spread showers over the area. Showery conditions will
persist through Wednesday and slowly diminish through Thursday.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
West to northwest flow will continue to dominate the bering and
aleutians bringing showers to the area, until a new system
approaches the western aleutians from the north pacific Tuesday.

The associated front will make it over the western aleutians
Tuesday afternoon and then track into the central aleutians
Wednesday morning. The front will then stall and dissipate
Wednesday night, as the parent low weakens over the western
aleutians. Not much warming is expected with this upcoming
system, so it is more likely to be a mix of rain and snow with
the frontal passage, rather than just rain.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
No major changes to the long range forecast today as the trend for
quieter and colder weather still looks to be on track. Beginning
Thursday, weak ridging will develop over the eastern half of the
state bookended by a deep low over the SE coast and a rapidly
weakening surface low over the SW mainland. The jet stream will
migrate south keeping the storm track positioned away from
mainland alaska. An upper level ridge will amplify over the
bering and move east through the weekend which will lead to
northerly offshore flow over the western half of the state. This
will draw bitterly cold air down from the arctic and steadily
decrease temperatures across most of the area, with the coldest
plunge of arctic air seen over western ak where temperatures could
drop well below average by Sunday.

Further west, models are locking in on the next storm system
moving into the western bering on Saturday. A front looks to move
east across the western and central aleutians over the weekend but
will stall and wash out as persistent high pressure to the east east
blocks any further progression. Past this weekend, models become
disorganized and out of agreement, but generally show the storm
track staying to our south as ridging holds on over the mainland
keeping us in a colder drier pattern.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Freezing rain advisory 101 121.

Marine... Storm warning 119.

Gale warning 120 125 130>132 138>140 150 178.

Synopsis and model discussion... Rc
southcentral alaska... Sb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Pepe
long term... Kvp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 1 mi53 min 42°F996.8 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 12 mi45 min 42°F2 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 17 mi53 min N 16 G 19 37°F 995.6 hPa36°F
HMSA2 19 mi31 min NE 20 G 26 33°F 996.4 hPa28°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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SE12
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NE16
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E6
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G18

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK1 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair28°F27°F96%996.9 hPa
Homer, Homer Airport, AK18 mi30 minNNE 510.00 miFair27°F24°F89%997.2 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmNE3NE3CalmN3NE3NE6NE3CalmE4NE5E4NE5E6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5
1 day agoSE10
G25
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E10E17
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2 days agoE18
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Chatham, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Port Chatham
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:59 AM AKST     13.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:23 AM AKST     3.75 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:27 AM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:46 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:26 PM AKST     14.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:51 PM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:18 PM AKST     New Moon
Tue -- 07:53 PM AKST     -1.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.512.613.312.610.67.95.33.945.6810.713.114.414.312.69.65.82.2-0.4-1.2-0.22.35.5

Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Homer
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:17 AM AKST     17.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:56 AM AKST     3.98 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:28 AM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:48 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:44 PM AKST     18.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:43 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:47 PM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:18 PM AKST     New Moon
Tue -- 08:26 PM AKST     -1.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
12.215.617.216.814.711.47.74.945.28.21215.718.318.817.314.19.751-1.2-11.35.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.