Monday, March19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Yakutat, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 8:16PM Monday March 19, 2018 7:24 PM PDT (02:24 UTC) Moonrise 7:36AMMoonset 9:31PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ053 Yakutat Bay- 310 Pm Akdt Mon Mar 19 2018
.small craft advisory due to seas late tonight through Tuesday...
Tonight..SE wind 10 kt becoming W late. Seas 5 ft, increasing to 8 ft late tonight. East side of the bay, seas to 2 ft or less. S swell late. Rain early in the evening, then rain showers in the evening. Snow showers late.
Tue..E wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. East side of the bay, seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or less. S swell.
Tue night..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 4 ft E side of the bay. S swell.
Wed..N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. S swell.
Wed night..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri..E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat..E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yakutat CDP, AK
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location: 59.56, -139.61     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 192252
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
252 pm akdt Mon mar 19 2018
afternoon WV imagery shows a zonal upper jet nosing into SE alaska
from the west as a shortwave trough in the mid levels is beginning
to amplify over the northern gulf. This shortwave will continue
to amplify through Tuesday, evolving into a closed mid upper low
along the eastern gulf coast as more jet energy over the bering
sea carves out a mean trough over the gulf. At the surface, a
weak front will continue to push through the panhandle this
evening. A weak surface low will develop over the NE gulf Tuesday
morning and sink slowly southward along the gulf coast through
Tuesday night.

Main forecast concerns in the short term revolve around marine
winds and possibly some late season snowfall. Stable atmosphere
over the inner channels this afternoon has limited the southerly
winds to 25-30kt in lynn canal with 20kt or less elsewhere. Expect
the gradient to slowly relax tonight and thus expect a decreasing
trend in the southerly winds especially over lynn canal by late
tonight. Over the gulf, stronger CAA under the amplifying upper
trough will aid gale force wnw'ly winds in developing tonight and
continuing into Tuesday morning. Some stronger w'ly winds of 25 to
30 kt will make it into cross sound and western parts of icy
strait as well by late tonight. As the surface low pulls to the
south by late Tuesday night, n'ly outflow will begin to develop
over the northern channels. Delayed the onset of the outflow a bit
as models have slowed the progression of the surface low to the
south a bit compared to previous runs. Still expect high end sca
to low end gales by late Tuesday night Wed over the northern inner

As the low to mid level low develops along the NE gulf
coast northern channels tomorrow morning, a mid level deformation
zone will pivot over the northern channels through the day
Tuesday. Steep lapse rates approaching 7 to 7.5 c km will exist
underneath the upper cold pool aloft. As the lower atmosphere
cools, expect snow to begin mixing into the rain showers across
much of the area. There is the potential for some more potent
banding of the showers in the lynn canal icy strait area tomorrow
morning. Weak surface winds may allow for any persistent heavier
showers aligned with the mid level deformation zone to drive some
accumulating snow to sea level especially in the haines to juneau
corridor. Warm boundary layer and low snow ratios will limit
accumulation unless the rates become heavy enough. Hard to
indicate this in a deterministic forecast so went with
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in the above-mentioned areas with
the caveat that this will likely be highly variable depending on
where any persistent snow banding sets up. Later shifts can
monitor this potential and update once the situation become

Overall model agreement was decent through Tuesday night although
placement of features on the mesoscale exhibited subtle
difference. Forecast confidence is average.

Short term
Long term Wednesday through Monday ... As of 10 pm Sunday.

Overall upper level pattern has not changed all that much through
the late week period compared to yesterday. The upper low that
moves through the panhandle Tue and Tue night ends up stalling in
the NE pacific through Fri night. Though it is farther south,
taking up space W of vancouver island rather then haida gwaii. The
upstream ridge over western alaska is still there as well, but
guidance is still in flux on when it will break down. Current
scenarios have significantly slowed the timing of the break down
by 12 to 24 hours with a timing more toward Sat rather then the
fri that was suggested yesterday.

So what does this mean for the forecast? With the upper low
settling much further south for the latter half of the week the
panhandle has trended toward a drier forecast. Most areas should
be done with shower activity as early as wed, through the southern
panhandle may still see a slight chance of precip through Fri as
some short waves from the upper low get north enough to affect
that area. Ptype will mainly be a mix of rain and snow especially
at night with the cool air mass in place. What has not changed is
the cold northerly outflow that will be in the area for much of
the late week period. 25 to 40 kt northerly winds are still
expected in the usual outflow areas Wed through Fri with the
highest winds expected thu. Temperatures were also not changed
much and will be hovering right near normal for this time of year.

Now for the later break up time for the upstream ridge. The delay
of nearly a day means that the more zonal flow that sets up in its
wake will wait until the late weekend to arrive. The result is a
more quiet early weekend forecast followed by a more active
pattern for early next week as several systems move east across
the gulf. It is too early to get exact timing for individual
systems as model agreement is very poor this far out, especially
after an overall pattern change, but most are trending toward a
warmer and wetter scenario for the panhandle.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind until 10 pm akdt this evening for akz018.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz043-051-052.

Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-021-022-031-041-042.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz053.

Del eal
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YATA2 - 9453220- Yakutat, AK 7 mi54 min 40°F1012.8 hPa

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.