Wednesday, August16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Yakutat, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 9:53PM Wednesday August 16, 2017 8:24 AM PDT (15:24 UTC) Moonrise 11:55PMMoonset 4:14PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ053 Yakutat Bay- 346 Am Akdt Wed Aug 16 2017
Today..Light winds. Seas 7 ft, except 2 ft or less E side of the bay. S swell. Rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 2 ft or less E side of the bay. S swell. Showers.
Thu..E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 2 ft or less E side of the bay. S swell. Showers.
Thu night..Light winds. Seas 6 ft, except 2 ft or less E side of the bay. S swell. Showers.
Fri..Light winds. Seas 5 ft.
Sat..Light winds. Seas 5 ft.
Sun..E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yakutat CDP, AK
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location: 59.56, -139.61     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 161409
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
609 am akdt Wed aug 16 2017

Short term The low has slowed its eastward progression and
remains just offshore early this morning, it is filling as it
attempts to make landfall. The frontal boundary has pushed as far
north as the skagway haines area. Yakutat has been on the fringe
of this boundary but the main area around yakutat bay remained
mostly clear overnight and has just recently seen the clouds make
their way that far north along with some fingers of clouds
quickly rolling over the area from the west. Yakutat remains dry
this morning and will see rain developing later today, elsewhere
rain has been falling. The outer coastal zones will see a
decreasing trend in rain through the day but don't put that rain
coat away as there will 40 percent chances of rain for the
afternoon and early evening.

Then the next feature pushes in from the northwest
bringing showers that could be heavy at times along the coast
mountains from petersburg south by Thursday. There are
indications that the trough that moves across the gulf late
tonight early Thursday morning could have enhanced upper level
vorticity and spark off a small area of thunderstorms. Confidence
is low for the development of thunderstorms and have limited them
to over the gulf waters.

Winds are being strongly influenced by the dying low off the
central coast of seak. Winds south of about frederick sound have
gone southerly and will turn back to the south in stephens passage
and lynn canal this morning. The wind shift boundary in far
southern stephens passage jumped winds up to SCA this morning and
the area of 25 kt will spread north this morning and settle out
at 15-20 kt for the afternoon. Lynn canal is the another area for
the inside waters that will see SCA flag raised with winds
increasing this afternoon through tonight. One other area is cross
sound where seas will build up to 8 ft late this afternoon near
the entrance hoisting the SCA flag due to seas briefly. The
outside waters will have SCA mainly due to seas continue through
tonight.

Models are in generally good agreement. The GFS and NAM were
favored but ECMWF still had a supporting roll. The NAM was used
more for guidance for winds, where GFS was used for temperature
adjustments. Over all changes were minor, but there were a few
exceptions with the clear skies persisting overnight for yakutat.

Overnight lows there plummeted to the low 40s. Winds the stephens
passage and lynn canal were increased as well.

Confidence is high for a wet pattern to persist but variations in
intensity and timing still lend for lower confidence in those
respects.

Long term Beyond Thursday's storm, a weaker shortwave
approaches the southeast gulf on Friday. With solutions
indicating varying degrees of intensity, we drew a moderately
weak system from which we can build if we need to strengthen as
it moves into the panhandle. If anything, the system will help
reinforce some cooler air aloft and keep showers entrenched
across southeast in the zonal flow that sets up through Saturday
night. The short-wave's passage across the southern panhandle
leaves weak ridging over the inner channels and weak troughing
over the gulf. This pattern begins to amplify later in the weekend
as a western gulf system arrives, possessing the deeper tropical
moisture from former tropical storm banyan. Therefore we have
increased southerlies and southeasterlies over the gulf at this
time, but both ECMWF and GFS raises winds even further to 25 kt.

The system pressing into the western gulf will have originated
within a very moist region of the western pacific. Satellite
imagery already indicates banyan showing a slight eastward
component within its current trajectory. This will increase as it
approaches the main jet region. GFS ensembles are showing a high
probability of integrated vapor transport in excess of 250 kg m s
across the gulf and southern panhandle late Sunday into Monday.

However, just as quickly this feature ejects to the east. Thus,
this setup is showing signs of atmospheric river development and
will indeed cause rivers to rise. However, at this stage, even if
it does develop, any flooding impacts are still to be determined.

In any event, what we can say with certainty is that these
successive storms are priming soils in the panhandle for potential
impacts later in the season. In line with its trpoical origins,
we raised snow levels up to around 10k feet by late Sunday as
well.

Beyond this, we lowered temperatures over the waters in line with
the mainly mid to upper 50s we have across the land areas. We used
a blend of nam, ecmwf, GFS Friday, followed by ECMWF and GFS for
the weekend. Confidence was too low to make changes beyond Sunday.

Forecast confidence high for wet weather and high that Monday's
eclipse will not be viewable from southeast ak.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for pkz012-031-041.

Small craft advisory due to seas for pkz022-042-043-051-052.

Kv abj
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YATA2 - 9453220- Yakutat, AK 7 mi55 min 55°F1004.3 hPa

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.