Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Yakutat, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 10:03AMSunset 3:49PM Saturday December 16, 2017 10:46 AM PST (18:46 UTC) Moonrise 7:08AMMoonset 3:06PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ053 Yakutat Bay- 349 Am Akst Sat Dec 16 2017
.small craft advisory through late tonight...
Today..E wind 25 kt becoming sw 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 40 kt early in the morning. Seas 14 ft, except 4 ft E side of the bay. Rain early in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..SW wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 13 ft, except 3 ft E side of the bay. S swell. Rain and snow showers.
Sun..S wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft, except 2 ft or less E side of the bay. S swell. Scattered rain and snow showers.
Sun night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft, except 3 ft E side of the bay. S swell. Rain and snow showers.
Mon..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Tue..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Wed..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yakutat CDP, AK
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location: 59.56, -139.61     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak67 pajk 161544
afdajk
southeast alaska forecast discussion
national weather service juneau ak
644 am akst Sat dec 16 2017

Short term today through Sunday night ... According to current
water vapor satellite imagery, an upper level ridge extends over
the eastern gulf and western british columbia, while a broad upper
level trough with embedded shortwaves spins aloft west of mainland
alaska and over the aleutian islands. Substantial cold air aloft
with this broad circulation is helping to produce an unstable air
mass. Lightning detection algorithms have already picked up on a
few lightning strikes near the aleutian islands this morning.

Current IR satellite shows what almost appears to be an agitated
cu field over a large area of the western gulf, where the
lightning strikes were detected this morning.

As one of the embedded shortwaves of the parent circulation begins
to lift northeast, this should pivot the area of thunderstorm
development to along the coastline near yakutat bay. Forecast
soundings for yakutat continue to show decent CAPE amounts and
sfc to 3km lapse rates greater than 7 degrees c km. We may see
additional lightning strikes where drier air mixes in aloft;
future WV satellite will be quite telling this afternoon. Due to
the colder air moving in with this next system, we should also
begin to see some snow mix in with the rain before eventually
going to a more showery regime in response to the cooler air.

In addition, the strong weather front, which brought gale force
winds along the eastern gulf waters and throughout some of the
inner channels, will continue to push east inland and begin to
weaken through this morning. Most locations should see winds
diminish throughout day. However, lynn canal and the skagway and
white pass areas will see winds increase this afternoon and into
tonight as the pressure gradient tightens between a developing low
pressure over the yukon territories and higher pressures over the
eastern gulf. The lynn canal marine areas will remain at small
craft advisory levels, and gusts to 40 mph will be possible in the
skagway and white pass areas. Also, blowing snow can be expected
for the white pass area during this timeframe, as new snow will
have fallen overnight last night and today.

Adjustments to the forecast were made using a combination of the
nam and ecmwf. Some high resolution models were incorporated into
some elements, including winds and qpf, and winds on land were
adjusted using hand analysis and MOS guidance. The gem was used to
update snow ratios, which was used to calculate snow amounts.

Long term Monday through Friday as of 10pm Friday, yet
another anomalously strong upper ridge continues to be advertised
by both operational models and their ensembles to rapidly build
over the gulf of alaska next week. Cool upper trough over the
northern gulf early on Monday will quickly be shunted off to the
southeast ahead of this building ridge. Lingering shower activity
on Monday will likely be in the form of snow even to sea level for
the northern and interior inner channels from haines and juneau
as far south as petersburg. Only light precip amounts are expected
and this will primarily be a case of the cold air chasing the
moisture so any snow accumulations would be minor.

Still looks like a very brief offshore flow even late Monday into
Tuesday. Northerly winds will develop over the northern inner
channels on Monday as the weak low offshore slides to the south.

Light northerly flow through the low levels will promote at least
some clearing by Monday night and Tuesday although will need to
watch for fog in places that are sheltered from the wind as the
ground will be saturated.

Low level flow becomes more nw'ly on Tuesday night into Wednesday
which is not necessarily a clear sky direction at times. Could see
some low level moisture and stratocumulus try to make a return
along the outer coast, however Wednesday should be another dry
day.

Upper ridge begins to shift east by late week with a series of
storm systems and their associated deep plumes of moisture riding
up the west side. At this time it appears the ridge will hold
strong enough to keep the deep fetch of moisture mainly to our
west, with only weakening fronts approaching from the west by
Thursday Friday. Unfortunately for snow lovers, we are hard
pressed to find any significant hope for snow in the future as
freezing levels rise to around 5 kft by late week under the strong
ridging aloft.

Ajk watches warnings advisories
Public... Strong wind until 9 am akst this morning for akz023.

Winter storm warning until 3 pm akst this afternoon for akz018.

Strong wind from this evening through late tonight for akz018.

Marine... Gale warning for pkz036-041>043-051-052.

Small craft advisory for pkz012-013-021-022-031>035-053.

Voveris del
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YATA2 - 9453220- Yakutat, AK 7 mi46 min 43°F991.6 hPa (-0.7)

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Biorka Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.