Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Homer, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 4:53AMSunset 10:58PM Sunday May 20, 2018 9:50 AM AKDT (17:50 UTC) Moonrise 9:01AMMoonset 1:09AM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 338 Am Akdt Sun May 20 2018
Today..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Tonight..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Mon..N wind 20 kt becoming ne 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Mon night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed through Thu..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homer, AK
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location: 59.64, -151.54     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 201253 cca
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service anchorage ak
453 am akdt Sun may 20 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The complex low pressure system aloft is looking slightly more
organized as the aleutian shortwave being propagated by the jet is
strengthening as it moves toward the gulf of alaska. The system
looks to have taken control of the long-wave so to speak, becoming
the center of circulation. There are four or five short-wave
troughs now emanating from the long-wave, and will be the foci
for active weather in the short term. The western canadian ridge
is still in place, bending the jet into the gulf of alaska,
however it does appear as if it is giving way to the east,
allowing southern alaska to be more under the influence of the
incoming long-wave trough. Way out west, it looks like our
blocking high is no more and integrating into the ridge of a
developing system south of kamchatka, which would signal a
reorganizing longwave pattern.

For sensible weather, what is there to say that I haven't been
saying everyday for the last week? Cloudy? Check. Showery? Check.

Diurnal gap winds? Check.

Model discussion
Guidance is in great agreement with several of the facets of the
forecast that were touched on above. The low south of the alaska
peninsula will indeed become the long-wave center and slide into
the gulf, and the blocking high weakening will allow for the
long-wave pattern to become slightly more progressive. Minor
differences still exist with short-wave and frontal timing with
the gulf system, but overall synoptically the story stays the
same, a low in the gulf, clouds and precipitation around it.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Broad upper level cyclonic flow will continue to steer surface
lows fronts north across the gulf through early this week. The
net result will be generally cloudy and wet conditions along the
coasts with sporadic showers rain with some sunshine inland. As
surface features move north across the gulf they will bring
periods of small craft to gale force winds along coastal marine
areas. The combination of surface ridging along the north gulf coast
and a strengthening thermal trough over the interior will give
rise to localized southerly winds along the copper river, out of
the knik river, and over west anchorage during the afternoon and
evening hours through Monday. Elsewhere, turnagain arm winds will
increase this afternoon then decrease again overnight tonight.

Short term forecast southwest alaska
The radars at bethel and king salmon continue to be active early
this morning. Expect lingering showers across portions of
southwest today. The NAM model has pinged into some unstable
pockets this afternoon, but the NAM is often more bullish with
convection. More confidence in thunderstorms on Monday. A warming
trend will begin which will contribute to a more buoyant airmass
being in place and instability. The diurnal heating combined with
remnant dynamics from the upper low will result in thunderstorm
activity Monday afternoon and evening.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians
Looking at the latest himawari satellite image, there is a train
of storms from the akpen to the korean peninsula. Looking at the
500mb charts on the models, there is a closed low near st lawrence
island and a second closed low south of cold bay and multiple well
defined shortwaves embedded in the pattern. There will be a break
in activity late tonight as a ridge axis noses its way over attu
and the western aleutians. But with this progressive flow, the
next low will barrel into the region quickly shifting the ridge
axis eastward.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The overall progressive pattern will continue through much of
next week, as one upper low sets up over the gulf of alaska
through mid-week and is quickly replaced by the next upper level
low trough tracking in from the west mid-week into next weekend.

The initial system will allow several systems to rotate into the
southern mainland through mid-week, bringing precipitation and
some gusty winds to the coastal regions of southcentral alaska
over the weekend and into next week. However, the strong
southeasterly flow associated with these systems will favor
slightly drier conditions over the downsloped areas along the
lee-side of the chugach range.

The low and associated front will begin to impact the western
aleutians Monday morning and steadily track eastward through
Wednesday, covering much of the bering and aleutians with wet and
windy conditions. The low begins to stall over the central and
eastern bering Wednesday night, and eventually begins to track
into the akpen by Friday. Models are showing a triple point low
forming south of the akpen Thursday morning, with an associated
front ahead of it tracking through the gulf region Thursday
through Friday. This will bring a repeat scenario of wet and
windy conditions along the gulf coast with downsloping conditions
along the lee-side of the chugach. The models continue to agree
that at least through next weekend, the persistent pattern of
cooler, cloudy, and unsettled weather will remain in place.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale 119 120 130 131 138.

Synopsis and model discussion... Mtl
southcentral alaska... Bc
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ps
long term... Tp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMSA2 7 mi38 min SSW 1.9 G 4.1 46°F 1001 hPa39°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 7 mi80 min S 1.9 1001 hPa
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 17 mi50 min 43°F1001.3 hPa (-1.8)
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 32 mi50 min NE 6 G 6 41°F 1000.7 hPa (-1.8)41°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK2 mi57 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds44°F41°F89%1001.7 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK16 mi57 minS 310.00 miOvercast42°F39°F89%1001.6 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E13E12E8E7SE7SE7SE5SE6SE4SW4W5W4CalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE3S3SW5W3W4SW7W8--3S4S6SW3W3W4CalmNE3SE4SE7N4N3E4E8E9E10
2 days agoCalmCalmSW5S3E7E5E5E5CalmCalmW4W3W3W3CalmCalmCalmNW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Homer
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Sun -- 12:32 AM AKDT     2.88 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:08 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:19 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:23 AM AKDT     18.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:00 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:09 PM AKDT     -1.99 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:41 PM AKDT     16.68 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:46 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.23.15.38.912.816.11817.815.611.87.32.9-0.5-2-1.11.75.71013.816.216.615.212.59.1

Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Halibut Cove
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:28 AM AKDT     2.98 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:06 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:18 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:30 AM AKDT     18.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:00 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:05 PM AKDT     -1.89 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:48 PM AKDT     17.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:45 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.33.35.69.21316.418.418.416.312.47.73.1-0.4-1.9-0.92610.21416.517.115.8139.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.