Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Homer, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 9:37AMSunset 4:44PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 2:49 AM AKST (11:49 UTC) Moonrise 8:09PMMoonset 10:05AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 311 Pm Akst Tue Jan 22 2019
.small craft advisory through Wednesday...
Tonight..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
Wed..E wind 30 kt becoming se 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
Wed night..S wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu night..E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri..S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat through Sun..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homer, AK
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location: 59.64, -151.54     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 230133
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
433 pm akst Tue jan 22 2019

Analysis and upper levels
Ridging remains entrenched over eastern portions of the state
extending from southeast alaska through the northwestern part of
the state. There is also a low near the central aleutians slowly
tracking to the northwest with its front stretches over southwest
alaska and kodiak island on its way to the kenai peninsula. This
setup has resulted in southerly flow for most locations that is
pulling up an abundance of warm air resulting in many locations
switching from snow to rain.

Model discussion
The models are in decent synoptic agreement until Wednesday
afternoon when they struggle to track a new system approaching the
aleutians from the south. They are many differences in how
multiple lows will develop along the front with this system.

However, there is still some agreement with timing of the front.

On Thursday models are having even greater difficulty with
position and movement of multiply lows in the region. The worst is
with a low approaching the alaska peninsula Thursday afternoon.

There is a general consensus of it approaching the peninsula, but
timing, intensity and position are all off.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light surface winds will persist.

Turnagain arm winds look to increase this evening but should not
move in over the city at the surface. However, some of the
turnagain arm winds will move in overhead resulting in windshear
conditions.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The main forecast challenges over the next 48 hours will be
precipitation type coverage as temperatures warm, and increasing
wind speeds for the turnagain arm and upper hillside. We've
already received a report of icy road conditions this afternoon at
anchor point as the initial precipitation ahead of an approaching
front moved into the area. This front will reach the kenai
peninsula tonight before and then lift into the mat-su
valleys anchorage bowl by early afternoon. Although the front will
be weakening somewhat as frontolysis takes hold (the weakening of
a front), the pressure gradient will still be sufficient to cause
an increase in winds for turnagain arm into the upper hillside.

Here, winds could reach the 50 to 70 mph range. With strong
downsloping in the typical rain shadow areas, look for mainly
spotty flurries drizzle with some brief increase in coverage as
frontal passage occurs.

Our attention then turns to a much stronger front that will cross
the region for the Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
time frame, as a strong low lifts into the bering sea. The front
will be in the occlusion process with very strong upper-level
support as a lobe of vorticity (this brings increasing lift with a
front helping to enhance precipitation potential, while also
having strong downward mixing potential) crosses the region.

Strong dry advection behind frontal passage will likely cause some
gusty wind conditions with increasing temperatures as well.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
A complicated weather pattern exists for southwest alaska. Low
pressure in the bering sea is slowly moving northward, with
several waves of energy circulating around it. This is making for
an active weather pattern and timing out these pulses of energy
will be the forecast challenge for the next few days. Models are
not handling the timing of these waves either, making the forecast
that much more challenging. Past Wednesday, the forecast
confidence is low due to poor model quality and the complexity of
the situation.

The next pulse of energy will move through tonight bringing rain
and snow with it. Rain and mixed precipitation will be present on
the lee side of the mountains where temperatures have warmed
enough. Snow will be elsewhere as low level northeasterly flow
will keep temperatures cool enough for snow. Winds will quickly
shift southeast tomorrow, bringing in warmer temperatures and
transitioning some areas to a rain or rain snow mix in the
afternoon on the tail end of this next wave. The following wave is
expected to arrive early Thursday, but will need some more detail
on that system with model data performing poorly. Overall, a
complicated forecast the next few days so stay tuned for updates.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Low pressure continues to slowly move northward through the
central bering sea. This low has several waves of weather
circulating around it, making for an active weather pattern over
the entire area. Timing out these waves of energy will be the
forecast challenge for the next few days. Models are not handling
this pattern well, with timing issues with each of these waves
coming through which adds to the complexity and challenge of
figuring out what is going on. This also means forecast confidence
is low past Wednesday.

Where we do have some confidence is in the first 48hrs. The
initial wave passed through yesterday with the second passing
earlier today. A third wave is approaching the eastern aleutians
now and will move through tonight. It will bring rain showers and
gusty winds with it. Models did agree on some stronger winds in
the bristol bay area, so upped winds to gale force level there.

The following round of energy can be seen on satellite in the
north pacific and is expected to pass through the eastern aleutians
tomorrow night and will be slightly weaker. Yet another round of
energy is expected Thursday for the eastern bering, but this is
where confidence gets low so will wait to detail this to when it
gets closer in time.

Meanwhile in the western bering and western aleutians northerly
flow will be present on the backside of the low. This means cooler
temperatures and snow showers. This cooler air is also getting
entrained into the low and wrapping around it, making for a messy
precipitation type profile around the low, with a mix of rain and
snow around the low in the central bering. All in all, a very
complicated forecast for the next few days, so stay tuned.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
An active and challenging pattern will continue through the
weekend. Thursday and Friday will see a strong low lift across the
akpen bringing high end gales, with the possibility of storm force
winds. Model guidance is still uncertain and is keeping confidence
levels moderate on the track and timing, but high on intensity. On
the heels of that system is one that will move into the bering
this weekend. The current track slides a deepening low through
adak and towards the pribs. High end gales are expected. Storm
force winds, and possibly higher on Sunday through the central
aleutians are not out of the question.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The longwave pattern isn't changing much through the weekend.

Ridging across the gulf of alaska will slide east and weaken as a
deepening trough moves into the western bering. That signal
spells continued active weather for much of the extended forecast.

The first system will slam into the akpen Friday and into this
weekend. A second system will track into the bering and both will
bring strong winds, warm air and unseasonal conditions. Above
freezing temperatures are expected for south central and coastal
locations, while some inland areas may cool below freezing
overnight. The return to winter (temperatures) is looking to occur
early into the next work week, though a shunt to warm may be on
it's heels as well.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 119 120 13>132 136 137 150 155 160 178 185.

Heavy freezing spray 185.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Dk
southcentral alaska... Pd
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Bb
marine long term... Ss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 7 mi79 min SE 14 44°F 1002 hPa35°F
HMSA2 7 mi27 min E 8.9 G 16 41°F 1002 hPa33°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 16 mi49 min 42°F2 ft
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 17 mi31 min 42°F1001.1 hPa
APXA2 20 mi64 min NE 5.1 33°F 1003 hPa31°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 32 mi49 min E 23 G 29 43°F 999.1 hPa (-2.8)38°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 55 mi49 min ESE 30 G 34 43°F 1000.4 hPa (-0.4)39°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK2 mi56 minESE 1210.00 miOvercast42°F34°F73%1003.1 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK16 mi56 minVar 310.00 miLight Rain38°F36°F93%1002.2 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.