Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Homer, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 9:11AMSunset 4:18PM Saturday November 17, 2018 7:12 PM AKST (04:12 UTC) Moonrise 2:44PMMoonset 12:24AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 300 Pm Akst Sat Nov 17 2018
Tonight..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Sun..SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Sun night..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Mon and Mon night..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed through Thu..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homer, AK
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location: 59.64, -151.54     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 180132
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
432 pm akst Sat nov 17 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The pattern remains dominated by southerly flow bringing up plenty
of warm air and moisture from the north pacific. This is all
courtesy of a potent upper level jet at 30,000' (300mb). The jet
is mostly zonal at upwards of 150 kts south of the aleutians. This
is allowing a broad trough to sit over the bering. However, the
jet then takes a sharp turn northward towards southcentral at
about 90 kts. Several wave of energy are visible on satellite
riding up on this jet stream. The initial front produced several
inches of snow over the southern copper river basin. Then a
trailing shortwave brought some light freezing rain this morning
to parts of the anchorage bowl and matanuska valley. The next wave
is already visible on satellite just approaching the southern tip
of the kenai peninsula. The warm, moist air is also impacting
southwest ak with rain falling all the way from bethel down to
king salmon.

Its only out in the western portion of the aforementioned trough
over the western aleutians that is seeing any real cold air to
speak of. The pattern will remain progressive and dynamic through
the week. This could ultimately allow some of this cold air to
return to the mainland by week's end.

Model discussion Models are not handling things well today.

Several pieces of energy are moving into the north pacific and
then turning sharply towards kodiak island kenai peninsula. As has
often been the case this fall, this track has proven challenging
for the models to lock onto a solution. This morning's wave that
moved through southcentral was not picked up at all by the models.

They look to be in better agreement with the weak one tracking
towards the kenai this evening. However, by late sun-mon, there
are marked differences in how they handled the stronger system in
the gulf of ak. This forecast package leans towards the more
consistent ec and gfs, trying to paint the closed surface low
tracking due south of seward. The QPF on the GFS seemed a bit
heavy while the NAM was excessively drying things due to some
downsloping. So we took a middle-ground approach with
precipitation amounts as well. All models do agree that this
system appears warm enough that all locations near sea-level will
see rain (versus snow).

Aviation
Panc... One weak passing wave will trigger some showers this
evening, but ceilings should remainVFR. When the stronger front
arrives early Sun morning, rain intensity should increase. This
will allow ceilings to slowly lower, possibly reaching MVFR by
daybreak. There could be some light wind shear by Sun morning as
well with surface winds staying out of the northeast as mountain-
top switches to southeast.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
Southerly flow between upper level troughing over southwest alaska
and the eastern bering and ridging over the southeast alaska
panhandle and western canada will continue to direct warm, moist
air up into southcentral alaska. The next frontal wave currently
over kodiak island will lift north through the gulf tonight and
then continue further inland into southcentral alaska Sunday. The
next frontal wave will track north into the gulf Sunday night,
continuing north to stall in the vicinity of the kenai peninsula
Monday night and Tuesday.

Temperature across the anchorage bowl and through much of the
matanuska valley have warmed into the mid to upper 30s this
afternoon with low 40s along the hillside with only a couple areas
such as the eagle river valley and willow area lingering near 30.

While precipitation in these colder valleys may start out with
some light freezing rain mixed in, precipitation with the next
frontal system will be predominately rain with temperatures
remaining steady or warming slightly tonight through Sunday.

A bit more low level cold air remains trapped in the copper river
basin with overrunning mixed precipitation types continuing to be
a concern, however precipitation amount and coverage in that area
will initially be more limited through Sunday morning. Precipitation
spreading across the copper river basin with a weak frontal wave
Sunday afternoon and a stronger one late Sunday night could be
more problematic depending on how persistent the low level cold
air is.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
The upper level short-wave trough that stretches from the
kuskokwim delta through bristol bay will push northeast through
the area tonight. The parent upper low over the central bering sea
will drift slowly towards the southeast. The associated low level
front will weaken as it moves through. This will bring rain,
snow, and freezing rain to southwest alaska. The freezing rain
will mostly fall in the lower kuskokwim valley, with some also
possible north of bethel as these areas still have fairly cool
temperatures at the surface. South of these areas the
precipitation will be mainly rain with quite warm temperatures,
except some snow in the higher elevations. On Sunday and Sunday
night, the upper level flow will remain southerly with the upper
low only slowly moving eastward. Precipitation will diminish to
scattered showers, and the snow level will slowly fall as heights
diminish. The upper low will open up into a trough by Monday
morning, with a low moving eastward across the northern bering
becoming the main low. This low will then move into southwest
alaska Monday night and Tuesday, with fairly strong northwesterly
flow behind it.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
The upper low over the central bering will move southeast tonight
and into southwest alaska by late in the day Sunday. A ridge will
build briefly behind this low, and ahead of the next low. This
next low will send a fairly weak front through the bering from
west to east Sunday morning through Monday morning, dissipating in
the far eastern bering by Sunday afternoon. Another front will
push across the southern bering and aleutians Sunday evening
through Monday, reaching the alaska peninsula Monday evening. This
front will be stronger than the previous one with both winds and
precipitation. By Tuesday a flat ridge will be across most of the
bering and aleutians, with west to northwest winds at the surface.

The ridge is weak enough that some scattered showers will persist
in the eastern bering and eastern aleutians.

.Long term forecast (days 3 through 7 Tuesday night through
Saturday)...

some change for the positive today in the long term, in that
models are finally showing a decent picture of what might happen
next week. Going with a gfs ECMWF solution for the long term as
those have been consistent enough the past few days to put some
trust in them. Both show troughing over southcentral ak through
Wednesday and ridging over the western and central aleutians
through the middle of the week.

As with yesterday, ridging slowly works its way across the
aleutians, to be over SW ak on Friday. This was similar to
yesterday's solution, so am able to put some stock in it. This
means a general cooling trend and finally perhaps some clearing of
weather later next week for southcentral and SW ak, as the ridge
will bring in some cool, dry air from the north. Confidence still
needs to grow with the above. With the way models have been
handling the weather lately, need to see this same solution for
another day or two to really buy it. The western aleutians are
also a wash after the middle of next week, with models varying
widely with the track of the next low after ridging moves east out
of the area midweek.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Winter weather advisory... 152.

Marine... Gales... 119 130 155 165 170 172 179.

Synopsis and model discussion... Mo
southcentral alaska... Jr
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Bl
long term... Bb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 7 mi42 min N 1.9 997 hPa
HMSA2 7 mi30 min S 2.9 G 8.9 46°F 998.4 hPa37°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 16 mi42 min 46°F2 ft
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 17 mi42 min 46°F998.7 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 32 mi42 min S 1 G 1.9 48°F 998.3 hPa45°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 55 mi42 min E 17 G 20 46°F 998.3 hPa45°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK2 mi19 minSW 710.00 miOvercast48°F39°F71%999.4 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK16 mi19 minN 010.00 miOvercast42°F39°F92%999.1 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6E7E4N5NE6E6E9E4NE3CalmNE3CalmE4E5E5NE3NE4E5NE3W4CalmNW3--SW7
1 day agoE3NE4CalmNE5NE5N3E4NE10NE11NE9NE10E13
G21
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NE7NE5NE5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmNE3CalmN3NE4CalmCalmW4NE7N3CalmCalmNE3E5N3N3W4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Homer, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.