Sunday, June24, 2018 L-36.com


There have been some updates to address some problems that a few users were having. You might want to refresh your setup. Refresh

Marine Weather and Tides
Kachemak, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:17AMSunset 11:46PM Saturday June 23, 2018 9:26 PM AKDT (05:26 UTC) Moonrise 4:24PMMoonset 1:24AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 300 Pm Akdt Sat Jun 23 2018
Tonight..SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Sun night..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon and Mon night..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue through Thu..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kachemak city, AK
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 59.67, -151.45     debug


Area Discussion for -
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxak68 pafc 240036
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
436 pm akdt Sat jun 23 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The flow pattern aloft is features a jet stream well to the south
of the aleutians, which keeps most of the active weather and
system development away from our area. Two developing low centers
are still close enough to affect our weather. One is associated
with a shortwave trough in the active east-asian jet, while the
other is further downstream in the southern gulf of alaska.

Another weaker decaying low is spinning over the central bering
sea. Ridging over the yukon is nudging into alaska somewhat, but
it is a dirty ridge with plenty of mid-level moisture underneath.

Despite all these large features being further away from
southcentral, a smaller weaker feature will be the focus for
active weather in the short term.

A shortwave trough progressing eastward over the copper river
basin is kicking off convective showers from the wrangells to the
talkeetna mountains. Otherwise, mostly cloudy conditions and light
winds encompass most of southcentral alaska with temperatures in
the 50s to mid 60s.

Model discussion
Synoptically there are no huge differences between models.

However, all the differences in solutions between models come
from mesoscale differences in how they handle the easterly waves
in the flow pattern. Despite the differences in wave timing and
instability, it looks like there will be one wave today, and
another on Sunday, with the shower and thunderstorm activity
staying mainly confined to the copper river basin and susitna
valley. Some guidance suggests the convection popping off of the
talkeetnas will drift over anchorage, but with no instability down
over the cook inlet region, any of this precipitation should be
light.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will likely persist.

Conditions could approach mfr late tonight through Sunday morning
depending on how much shower activity approaches the airport.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (tonight through
Monday night)...

a fairly quiet pattern has set up over the coastal areas gulf
with weak ridging building over the southern half of the zone
leading to mostly dry conditions and periods of sunshine in the
afternoon. Areas further north will see more unsettled weather as
a series of easterly waves will push through this evening and
tomorrow bringing increased cloud cover and showers with isolated
thunderstorms across the copper river basin. Thunderstorm
development will be rather limited this afternoon and evening as
pre-existing cloud cover acted to suppress surface heating and
instability. A few showers over the talkeetna mountains may drift
southwest tonight bringing a chance of rain to the mat-su and
anchorage bowl areas late tonight and early tomorrow morning,
otherwise these areas are expected to remain mostly dry through
the forecast period. Thunderstorm activity should more pronounced
tomorrow afternoon over the copper river basin as instability
looks to be a bit more favorable and line up with the next
easterly wave pushing through. Convection will start out over the
higher terrain including the alaska range, wrangells, and the
talkeetnas but is expected to move west-southwest through the
evening bringing shower and thunderstorm chances to low lying
areas, even including the northern susitna valley.

On Monday, models continue to show westerly propagating energy
pulsing through the copper river basin bringing continued showers
and possible thunderstorms to the area, though the models are
struggling with how quickly and exactly where these easterly waves
will move. Further south, a front sweeping east across the
aleutians will begin to move into the southern gulf kodiak area by
Monday evening bringing increased winds and rain to that region.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
Increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms will be the
theme as we head into early next week. For this evening, a ribbon
of vorticity extending from a bering seas low combined with
daytime heating and orographic lift has resulted in some showers
developing across the region. As instability continues to
build maintain itself over the next few hours, we can't rule out a
stray thunderstorm or two along the alaska range.

Look for more of the same with somewhat higher chances for
showers and thunderstorms east of the kilbuck mountains and north
of the nushagak mountains for Sunday and Monday, as this region
will be influenced by a thermal ridge attempting to build
southwest while easterly waves cross the region. Meanwhile, an
approaching bering seas front looks to move ashore by Tuesday
morning for the bristol bay region, bringing increasing chances
for rain.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
A slow-moving area of surface low pressure will trek eastward
along just north of the chain over the next few days, sending a
front towards the akpen bristol bay region. Multiple mid-level
lows pinwheeling around the pribilof islands will add some upper
support to also foster shower development. Thus, look for a
generally wet pattern to continue over the next few days with
winds remaining below gale force.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long wave pattern across the state will bring a persistent
pattern of diurnal showers inland and periods of light rain across
the bering and gulf of alaska. The low pressure center will
reside near the alaska peninsula during the long range forecast. A
surface low organizes Tuesday night as two strong waves of energy
merge together as they wrap around the core of the low. This will
send a relatively weak front to the southern mainland on
Wednesday with lingering showers through the end of the week as
the organized low slowly fills while it spins near the alaska
peninsula. The to the west of this system, low clouds and patchy
fog will be the main theme for the western aleutians and bering as
a ridge builds from the north pacific. Only minor changes were
made for updates as models are in relatively good agreement with
the synoptic pattern through the end of next week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ml
southcentral alaska... Kvp
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Pd
long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMSA2 5 mi24 min SW 8.9 G 14 48°F 1017.5 hPa41°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 5 mi56 min W 8 1017 hPa
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 21 mi44 min 46°F1017.9 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 37 mi26 min S 1.9 G 1.9 48°F 1018.1 hPa (-0.7)44°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 59 mi26 min WSW 6 G 8 48°F 1018.2 hPa (-0.8)43°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
Last
24hr
S11
SW9
SW13
G16
SW14
G17
SW8
G11
SW10
G13
S11
S9
S7
SW6
SW7
G10
SW6
SW7
SW4
G8
SW6
SW6
S7
S8
SW9
SW9
S9
S8
S8
S9
1 day
ago
S5
S10
S6
SW7
SW6
SW8
SW13
SW11
G14
S13
G16
SW11
G16
SW13
SW10
G13
SW14
SW14
SW11
G14
SW15
SW12
SW13
G17
SW13
G16
SW9
G12
SW10
G13
SW10
S8
G11
S8
G11
2 days
ago
SE2
S2
NE2
W3
N1
NW2
S10
S10
S7
S7
S6
S5
S5
S6
SW5
G8
S7
S6

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
Click EDIT to select an airport
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.