Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


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Marine Weather and Tides
Kachemak, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 9:19AMSunset 4:12PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 10:19 AM AKST (19:19 UTC) Moonrise 3:21PMMoonset 4:19AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 348 Am Akst Tue Nov 20 2018
Today..NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kachemak city, AK
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location: 59.67, -151.45     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 201353
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
453 am akst Tue nov 20 2018

Analysis and upper levels
A vertically stacked, occluding low spins at the center of a long
wave trough that encompasses a vast majority of the gulf of
alaska. Cooler, drier air is wrapping around the low which is
enhancing the occlusion process. Scattered showers are seen on
radar pushing across the gulf coast rotating around the top of the
surface low. Clearer skies are present further inland leading
rapid surface cooling and fog development over portions of the
copper river basin, the anchorage bowl, and the western kenai
peninsula. A second long wave trough is over western mainland
alaska and the eastern aleutians. This trough stems from a
vertically stacked low north of mekoryuk island. Behind the
trough, northerly flow is advecting cold air over the bering and
ak-pen. At the surface, a shortwave trough is embedded within the
flow of the larger, main western trough. A north-south oriented
front sits over the ak-pen and eastern aleutians. High pressure is
building quickly over the western bering.

Model discussion
Models are again in decent agreement this morning with the
development and progression of the synoptic level features. There
are some differences by Wednesday Thursday regarding a broad
trough over the gulf and how several weak surface lows interact
with each other, though the only differences in the sensible
weather revolve around the magnitude of the northwesterly outflow
winds coming out of kamishak bay.

Aviation
Panc... Clearing skies overnight has lead to the enhancement of a
surface inversion and consequently fog development over the knik
arm, which has advected east over the terminal. The fog stratus
will do the typical ebb and flow through the morning before slowly
burning off around noon, though low stratus may linger in the
area through the afternoon.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A fairly well organized low over the gulf drifts to the eastern
gulf coast tonight then weakens and retrogrades west Wednesday. A
weak deformation zone with rain and snow over the western susitna
valley will slowly weaken through today. Locations along the north
gulf coast will see the lions share of precipitation (mainly
showers) with the low skirting the northern gulf through
Wednesday. Inland areas, except for the aforementioned western
susitna valley, will generally see a mixed showers through today,
with a nudge toward snow snow will slightly cooler air. Showers
will diminish over most inland areas tonight and Wednesday. Patchy
fog is expected in may areas this morning across the cook inlet
region as well as the mat-su and anchorage bowl. May see a
recurrence tonight, but not on such a large scale.

Westerly gales over the offshore gulf waters will diminish through
today. Winds over the northern marine coastal waters will see
some increase today and tonight and may approach gales, but should
be on a weakening trend Wednesday morning.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
Two weak fronts keep higher chances for snow in the forecast
through Wednesday morning, then a cold dry pattern sets up
through Thursday night. The first front moves inland across
bristol bay this morning bringing light snow as it moves east
across the aleutian range this afternoon. At the same time, a
second low dives south along the coast crossing over the alaska
peninsula tonight. Only trace accumulations are expected as
dynamics remain weak for these two systems. Patchy fog across the
region is expected through Wednesday morning then winds become
northerly on the backside of the low pulling a cold air mass
across the region.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
Low pressure along the eastern bering will advect a colder air
mass toward the alaska peninsula bringing snow and rain showers
through Wednesday afternoon; then the upper level low moves
southeast to the gulf. To the west, the next strong front moves
to the western aleutians late tonight bringing MAX gale force
easterly winds and rain along the frontal boundary. This front
begins to weaken on takes a slow northeast track on Wednesday.

However, a re-enforcing north pacific low will kick this system
into motion Wednesday night with gale force winds and rain
spreading across to the alaska peninsula and pribilof islands by
Thursday night.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)
The long-term forecast remains an uncertain one during the Friday
through Monday time frame. While all the models have a good handle
on day 4 with seasonably cold and quiet weather across mainland
alaska, the uncertainty develops behind where a strong low
tracking eastward along the aleutians goes, how strong it gets,
and how quickly it moves. Each of the models has a different
solution to this. As a new low over the north pacific approaches
it, the low is expected to deepen as the two lows merge. The gfs
and ec both keep the low drifting eastward, while the canadian
tracks it faster into the gulf. In addition, there is significant
uncertainty by Sunday and Monday as to exactly where the cold air
sets up, with the GFS by far the warmest, the canadian the
coldest, and the ec in the middle. Most of the models agree the
seasonably cold and quiet weather for thanksgiving and Friday
turns warmer and wetter by the weekend over southern mainland
alaska, but how much so remains a question with significant
uncertainty.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gales 119 177 178 351 411.

Synopsis and model discussion... Kvp ra
southcentral alaska... Rc
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kh
long term... Jw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMSA2 5 mi17 min SW 7 G 12 40°F 994.4 hPa34°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 5 mi49 min W 5.1 993 hPa
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 21 mi31 min 46°F994.6 hPa
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 21 mi49 min 46°F3 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 37 mi19 min W 8 G 9.9 41°F 994.6 hPa (-0.4)34°F
AMAA2 - East Amatuli Light, AK 59 mi19 min WNW 11 G 18 39°F 994.3 hPa (-0.7)31°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE8
NE9
G12
E10
G14
NE5
G8
N5
N5
NE6
G9
NE11
G15
NE11
G14
NE11
G17
NE6
G10
NE9
NE4
G9
N5
N4
G7
N4
N4
N4
NE3
NE2
NE3
N2
N3
NE5
1 day
ago
NE8
G11
NE9
G14
NE9
G12
NE7
G17
N9
N11
G15
NE8
G12
NE9
G13
NE9
G15
NE12
G16
NE13
G17
NE12
G19
NE11
G14
NE8
G13
NE7
G12
NE8
G13
NE11
G16
NE9
G15
NE12
G16
NE13
G16
NE14
G17
E9
G13
NE9
NE10
G14
2 days
ago
NE9
G12
E6
G11
NE7
NE8
G11
NE8
G12
NE10
G13
NE9
G12
NE11
G15
NE7
G11
NE7
NE8
G13
NE11
G14
NE11
G15
NE8
G13
NE11
G14
NE12
G17
NE10
G16
N9
G13
N10
G14
NE9
G12
NE11
G19
NE13
G21
NE10
G15
NE10
G16

Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.