Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fox River, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:36AMSunset 11:17PM Sunday May 28, 2017 2:36 AM AKDT (10:36 UTC) Moonrise 6:31AMMoonset 11:51PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 401 Pm Akdt Sat May 27 2017
Tonight..NE wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
Sun..E wind 15 kt becoming se 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
Sun night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue through Thu..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fox River, AK
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location: 59.73, -151.02     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 280111
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
436 pm akdt Sat may 27 2017

Analysis and upper levels
Water vapor and IR satellite imagery shows a deep stream of
moisture advecting north across the gulf of alaska between an
upper low center southwest of kodiak island and high pressure
along the northeast pacific. Clouds overspread the southern
mainland this morning with a few isolated showers across the
region as weak disturbances moved ahead of the upper low. This
system is currently stacked with a 1006 mb surface center pushing
a front into the southern gulf this afternoon. Marine winds are
primarily southeast in the small craft range along the gulf, with
lighter east flow along the kenai peninsula and inlet. Inland,
winds are generally out of the south this afternoon with a few
gusts along the knik arm and across the copper river.

To the west... Scattered showers are developing across the
southwest this afternoon as a short wave moves inland from the
bering. A ridge parked over the central bering is trapping low
clouds over the central and eastern waters with a front pushing
along its western periphery.

Model discussion
The main challenge in the forecast through Monday is the timing
of the front moving up from kodiak island. Models are in good
agreement with the general synoptic pattern through the short
term, however there are some minor differences on how the low
pressure system near kodiak lifts north on Sunday and Monday. Only
minor changes were made as trends continue to bring the main
frontal passage across southcentral late Sunday night into Monday
morning. The most noticeable changes in the inherited forecast
were wind adjustments for southcentral as the ridge building along
the northeast gulf progressed slower than anticipated today.

A few changes were also made along the western bering for winds
as all models came into agreement on a surface low center tracking
along the western waters to the central aleutians Sunday into
Monday.

Aviation
Mid level clouds will continue to stream in from the gulf as the
next front moves up from kodiak island. A few showers are expected
to develop in the vicinity, howeverVFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the next TAF package as southeasterly flow
downslopes rain chances over the terminal. Winds are going to be
light until the front begins to push north. There is still
uncertainty of the timing of the front, however all models are
currently showing the frontal passage late Sunday night.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
An upper trough is digging into the npac southwest of kodiak
island this evening. A plume of warm air advection and a leading
surface warm front are moving into the north gulf, and this will
increase moisture and precipitation rates along the coast. Cross-
barrier flow will be rather efficient at downsloping most regions
downwind of the coastal mountains and the chugach kenai mountains,
but some light showers will be possible given the mostly southerly
flow aloft and deep layer warm air advection through early
tomorrow morning. Heavy precipitation in excess of 2-4" will
pummel the coast through Sunday night before tapering off Monday
morning as the upper trough lifts north.

Monday will be more of a challenge as the shortwave trough lifts
north into southcentral. The main feed of deep layer moisture will
cutoff, but so will downsloping. Forcing for mass ascent along
the trough axis will help support some inland rain showers for a
brief period Monday, but timing of the upper low is still slightly
uncertain at this time.

Winds with this system will help accelerate increasing southeast
gap winds, especially through favored areas like turnagain arm and
gaps in the chugach kenai mountains. Winds will also increase to
25 to 30 knots through prince william sound, so small craft
boaters should prepare wisely. The gradient will weaken late
Sunday night.

Short term forecast southwest alaska
A stationary trough extending south through southwest alaska will
keep an unstable environment over the area allowing for showers to
continue through the weekend. With this setup there is also a
chance for thunderstorms to develop around the kilbuck mountains
this afternoon evening. As an upper level low south of the alaska
peninsula tracks north over southwest alaska more thunderstorms
are possible in the corridor from bristol bay to the lower
kuskokwim valley Sunday afternoon evening and Monday
afternoon evening. As the low diminishes and continues north,
showers will diminish around southwest alaska Tuesday.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians
Ridging over the central bering will slowly track east through
Monday keeping low clouds over the area and also keeping precip
off to the west. The ridging will block a low over the western
bering from pushing east which will cause it to stall near the
western aleutians into Monday night bringing rain to the area.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The unsettled period of weather that appears rather fall-like in
appearance will likely continue through next week into next weekend.

Although models are having a hard time pinpointing individual
features, the trend of the models continues to keep much of alaska
under some form of cyclonic flow whether it be a trough or an upper
level low. There is some encouraging news in the extended as 850 mb
temperatures are expected to warm through Wednesday which will help
stabilize the atmosphere and likely cause a break of a day or two
without too much widespread shower activity. However, by Thursday
models prog another cold air surge advected back into southern
alaska as a low in the bering sea dives south into the gulf of
alaska. This will likely increase shower coverage and intensity
Friday and through the weekend. The ECMWF is by far the most
optimistic model by trying to bring longwave ridging into alaska
next weekend but unfortunately the trends of the models have
continued to be wetter so persistence seems like the right way to go
until the models start agreeing on a synoptic pattern change.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Kh
southcentral alaska... Ja
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dk
long term... Mmc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 23 mi67 min E 20 42°F 1012 hPa39°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 42 mi49 min 44°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 44 mi59 min 44°F2 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 59 mi37 min ENE 12 G 16 43°F 1011.6 hPa (-1.0)43°F
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 69 mi49 min ENE 7 G 8.9 45°F 44°F1016.1 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK26 mi1.7 hrsENE 910.00 miLight Rain44°F37°F76%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3CalmNE3NE3NE3NE5E9E6E5E5E12NE7
G15
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1 day ago3CalmCalmNE3CalmNE4CalmSW3S6E6SE9S6S5
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2 days agoCalmN4NW4W3CalmCalmW5W6W5W9W10W10
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W4W3CalmN3NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Bear Cove, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Bear Cove
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:02 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:36 AM AKDT     21.68 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:01 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:32 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:06 AM AKDT     -5.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:39 PM AKDT     19.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:02 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:21 PM AKDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.48.213.518.221.221.418.9147.81.5-3.4-5.4-4.1-0.25.2111619.119.517.313.28.23.71.2

Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Halibut Cove
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:01 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:37 AM AKDT     21.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:03 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:33 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:06 AM AKDT     -5.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:40 PM AKDT     19.95 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:02 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:21 PM AKDT     1.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.58.313.718.421.421.819.214.381.6-3.2-5.3-4-0.15.411.216.219.319.817.613.58.43.81.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.