Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fox River, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 7:51PM Sunday September 24, 2017 12:44 AM AKDT (08:44 UTC) Moonrise 11:16AMMoonset 7:53PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 250 Pm Akdt Sat Sep 23 2017
Tonight..NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Sun..SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Sun night..SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Mon..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue through Wed..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fox River, AK
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location: 59.73, -151.02     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 240003
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
403 pm akdt Sat sep 23 2017

Analysis and upper levels
There is an upper level low over southwest alaska and the eastern
bering sea with two centers. One center is near nunivak island,
with the other center is just southwest of kodiak island. The
upper low near kodiak has an associated 989 mb surface low, and
there is another 989 mb surface low centered near king salmon.

Plenty of moisture and showers are associated with these lows.

There is an occluded front stretching from the kenai peninsula
southeast across the gulf of alaska. This is bringing a decent
amount of rain into the eastern kenai peninsula. High pressure is
over the western and central bering sea. There is also a weak
negatively tilted high over the copper river basin.

Model discussion
The numerical models are in decent agreement for the short term
portion of the forecast (through Monday afternoon). There are some
minor differences in how they handle the low moving towards prince
william sound, but the agreement is better than in previous runs.

There is a split in how the surface low over southwest alaska
moves into and across bristol bay Sunday into Monday. The GFS and
nam are further west, keeping the low on the western periphery of
bristol bay, while the ECMWF and canadian gem put it into the
eastern portion of the bay. The GFS nam solution was preferred.

Forecast confidence is near normal today.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist with the
downslope on the lee side of the chugach mountains keeping
panc out of most of the rain. While some wind shear is possible
this afternoon, it will likely be above the 2000 ft threshold for
low level wind shear being mentioned in the taf. Any shear that
is there should dissipate by evening.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The remnants of a barrier jet remain along the northern gulf
coastline this evening and will taper off by Sunday morning with
weak onshore flow. Meanwhile, an upper level closed low is just
east of kodiak island, and looks to track through the prince
william sound region by late Sunday afternoon. This feature is
reflected at the surface with a weak 994 mb low just offshore of
chiniak bay late Saturday evening, and tracks northward into the
prince william sound area by Sunday before dissipating by Monday.

This is a little different track for the low than was expected
yesterday as it is now farther east in prince william sound as
opposed to heading over the western kenai peninsula.

Look for the northern coastal communities to receive the majority
of the precipitation. The anchorage bowl and the upper portions
of the western kenai peninsula will have drier conditions with
downsloping occurring due to the cross-barrier flow through rest
of the weekend.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
There are two upper level lows helping to bring rain to southwest
alaska. One is near kodiak island while the other is near the
kuskokwim delta coast. This setup has brought the heaviest rain
to the bristol bay area. The heaviest rains will move northwest
towards the kuskokwim delta area this evening as the low near
kodiak pushes off to the northeast and the one near the kuskokwim
delta tracks south along the coast. As this low tracks south there
is uncertainty as to its exact track. These differences will
determine how strong winds get in bristol bay on Sunday. Sunday
night the low will continue its track south into the north pacific
leaving behind light rain over southwest alaska.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
High pressure continues to dominate the majority of the bering
and aleutians and will continue to do so through Monday. This
pattern will keep northerly winds with minimal rain over the
region. The exception will be the eastern bering sea and alaska
peninsula as an upper level low near the kuskokwim delta tracks
along the coast into the north pacific through Monday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Confidence continues to increase in regards to an area of low
pressure quickly moving into the gulf of alaska from the north
pacific on Tuesday. The ECMWF is the fast outlier currently but it
now looks like gale force gusts could be expected near kodiak
island and the northern gulf Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon as a front associated with the low pressure quickly
moves through the region. Rainfall with this system will upslope
along the coastal mountains but there is a bigger question for
interior locations and it really depends on the low track.

Currently it looks like inland areas like anchorage and palmer may
miss out on much of the precip on Wednesday.

Looking at the big picture from late next week through the
weekend, it appears the wet pattern across southwest and
southcentral alaska will remain the norm. A jet streak on the
backside of an upper level low over southwest alaska on Tuesday
will help amplify the longwave trough across the state of alaska.

This will keep cyclonic flow across the region with colder air
being advected south which should keep increased instability and
rain showers in the forecast for much of the state. There could
be a few breaks with some shortwave ridging across southwest
alaska over the weekend but zonal flow will return to the state by
late Sunday and allow for another unstable pattern to develop at
that time. Afternoon high temperatures look to remain below
normal with low temperatures across the region remaining near
normal. The majority of the bering sea will be under the influence
of high pressure come Tuesday with low stratus and fog. By late
Friday, a strong low will push off of russia and into the bering
sea which will force the high southward into the north pacific
and a rather wet and windy period will be observed across the
bering next weekend.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Flood warning 121 125.

Marine... Gale 119.

Synopsis and model discussion... Bl
southcentral alaska... Pd
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dk
long term... Mc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 42 mi45 min 51°F994.2 hPa (+0.0)
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 44 mi37 min 52°F2 ft
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 59 mi45 min N 1.9 G 2.9 51°F 993.9 hPa (-0.0)51°F
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 69 mi45 min ENE 9.9 G 16 53°F 53°F996.4 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK26 mi52 minNE 310.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%994.6 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE6
G15
NE6E5NE3NE4CalmCalmE3E11E9NE7E7NE7CalmCalmCalmCalmNE5CalmCalmE3NE3NE3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmW3E5NE7NE5NE4NE5E5NE3CalmCalmCalmE3E4NE4CalmCalmNE3E3
2 days agoN3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmE3CalmNE4CalmNW3N3CalmS3SW3SW5CalmS4CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bear Cove, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Bear Cove
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:37 AM AKDT     18.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:54 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:28 AM AKDT     2.44 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:15 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:34 PM AKDT     19.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:56 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:53 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:55 PM AKDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.53.37.411.915.818.218.416.613.18.952.72.85.18.81316.618.818.916.913.49.152

Tide / Current Tables for Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Halibut Cove
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:38 AM AKDT     18.91 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:55 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:28 AM AKDT     2.54 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:15 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:35 PM AKDT     19.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:56 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:55 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:55 PM AKDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.63.47.5121618.418.816.913.49.15.22.82.95.2913.216.81919.217.213.79.35.22.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.