Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Anchor Point, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 8:18PM Thursday March 21, 2019 1:57 PM AKDT (21:57 UTC) Moonrise 7:38PMMoonset 6:58AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 313 Am Akdt Thu Mar 21 2019
.small craft advisory tonight and Friday...
Today..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
Tonight..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Fri..SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Fri night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anchor Point, AK
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location: 59.77, -151.84     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 211313
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
513 am akdt Thu mar 21 2019

Analysis and upper levels
The longwave pattern features a high amplitude ridge across
western canada and into the alaskan interior. There is a closed
low south of the akpen and another closed low near the western
aleutians. Between the ridge and the low south of the akpen there
are multiple embedded disturbances across southcentral alaska.

A warm front tracking northwest will continue to march into
southwest alaska where it will meet up with an arctic airmass.

There is a jet core north of deadhorse and a second jet core south
of the kamchatka peninsula. Temperatures continue to run above
normal in multiple regions of the state. Yesterday, the high at
cordova was 61f and there were numerous locations in SE alaska
that were in the 60s.

Model discussion
The GFS and the ECMWF initialized well with the placement of the
surface low south of the akpen when compared to the
ascat advanced scatterometer data. The global models are in good
agreement with the synoptic scale features through 00z Saturday.

This is seconded by the tight grouping of the GFS ensemble members
with the high over siberia and the main low south of the akpen.

There are some differences with the timing of the precipitation
shield and the p-type over SW ak. The model of choice for the
short term package was the gfs.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Low level wind
shear possible from 12z-16z today.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Temperatures over the area will continue to be well above normal
over the next couple of days with southeast flow aloft and rather
high 500 mb heights. The low centered well south of kodiak
island will slowly move north today. The low will then move
northeast on on Friday, crossing the upper alaska peninsula early
Friday afternoon. A front associated with this low that is
currently over the southern gulf and kodiak island will reach the
kenai peninsula this afternoon, with increasing rain and winds.

The front will reach the north gulf coast and prince william sound
tonight, with gale force winds expected. The front will stall and
weaken on Friday. On Friday night, the front will begin to push
ever so slightly back towards the southwest as the parent low
slides westward in bristol bay, and the strong northwest canada
ridge nudges into eastern alaska. By late Friday night the winds
over the northern gulf will be quite weak, but moisture and
precipitation will continue over the kenai peninsula and north
gulf coastal areas.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2 Thu and fri)...

an active pattern remains across the area. Several weak warm
occlusions are swinging through southwest ak courtesy of a well
wrapped surface low south of kodiak. Each of these is bringing a
healthy band of precipitation and an additional push of warm air.

But that warm air has been slow to make it into the northern
portion of the yk-delta thanks to north to northeast surface winds
reinforcing some colder air. Thus, we have opted to upgrade the
winter weather advisory for the delta to a blizzard warning for
the coast from toksook bay north. Conditions are likely at their
worst right now and should slowly improve this morning as winds
start to diminish and warm air continues to try to erode the cold
dome. The cold air across the interior delta and the lower
kuskokwim river valley will create the potential for some freezing
rain and mixed precipitation early today as warm air nudges in
aloft. The bethel 12z upper air sounding shows this warm air
moving in quite well.

As the surface low moves towards the alaska peninsula on fri,
expect gusty southeast winds to envelop all of southwest ak. These
winds will be enough to push temperatures above freezing at most
(if not all) locations. The warmest spots will be on the northwest
side of any terrain where some localized downslope winds should
add a few more degrees. These temperatures should also allow all
precipitation to turn safely to rain.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2 Thu and
fri)...

after an extraordinarily quiet weather pattern for the bering,
things are about to become a lot more active. Right now, cold air
showers and modest winds will start the day. However, two
distinct features will bring the marked change to the pattern. The
simpler of those is a mid 960's mb low that will track towards
the western bering by late Fri night. This system will arrive as
an impressive warm front blasting through the western aleutian
late fri. Precipitation will start as snow with increasing
southeast winds. As the front passes through, winds will quickly
shift out of the southwest and turn precipitation over to rain.

This front will bring some high-end gale force winds back into the
bering sea.

The more complex piece will be the interaction of the cold air in
place with a low moving up from the north pacific. As these two
features collide, a potent deformation axis will form across the
central bering. This axis will represent a sharp dividing line
between warm air, rain, and southeast winds versus cold air, snow,
and northwest winds. Exactly where this feature sets up will be
key and is still somewhat uncertain. A winter storm watch has been
issued for the pribilof islands for tonight into Friday as st
paul and st george look to be right on the eastern edge of the
cold air. The snow and blowing snow will also push down into dutch
harbor initially. The north side of the eastern aleutians into
the alaska peninsula can also expect a very showery pattern, but
they look to stay mostly rain in the warm sector.

Marine (days 3 through 5 Saturday through Monday)
For the gulf of alaska... Southeast flow creating small craft to
gale force winds and elevated seas will continue into Saturday.

Winds should taper off pretty quick on Saturday. Models have a
tendency to calm winds a bit quickly, so we will watch the
forecast for winds and waves in the area. We have accounted for
this model bias in the forecast so we are confident in it, but
bears watching none the less. After Saturday, a brief break in the
weather is expected.

For the bering sea... Strong northerly flow is expected to continue
into Saturday, then gradually weaken to below small craft advisory
by the end of the day. A pattern shift is then expected to occur
Sunday with the first of a couple low pressure systems entering
the western bering. This will switch winds to a southerly direction
and elevate winds speeds again. We are confident in the pattern
shift and elevated winds speeds, but the placement of the low and
strength of winds will need to be honed more in coming days.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7 Saturday through Wednesday)
The long term will start with the current pattern remaining in
place for southcentral ak and low pressure in the western bering
sea. Lows will continue to train north into southcentral ak until
Sunday. Conditions will vary slightly with the passage of each
low, but the common thread between them is that warm, wet and
windy conditions will continue for southcentral through the
weekend. Early next week it looks promising for a break in the
weather. Models are coming into agreement that high pressure will
arrive over the gulf of alaska and southcentral, finally breaking
the trend of low pressure systems. While models still differ on
placement of the high pressure ridge, more of them are coming into
agreement. So, we have increasing confidence that a pattern shift
to calm weather will occur.

Out in the bering sea, a series of lows will move through the
western and central bering during the long term. A weaker low will
start the long term, followed by a strong and well organized low
moving north through the bering Monday into Tuesday. A frontal
system from this low could work its way into southwest alaska. As
with southcentral ak, there are differences in the long range
models with the weather in the bering. However, they do agree a
strong low will move through, so we have confidence in this
pattern. It's just a question of how strong and exactly where the
low center will be located. This of course will affect the
forecast, so we will have to hone the details in the coming days.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Blizzard warning 155.

Winter storm watch (blizzard) 195.

Marine... Gale warning 119 120 125 130>132 136>139 150 170>174 176
179 181 185.

Heavy freezing spray 181 185.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Pjs
southcentral alaska... Bl
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mso
marine long term... Bb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APXA2 1 mi73 min E 8 46°F 999 hPa33°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 12 mi58 min 42°F2 ft
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 24 mi40 min 42°F997.3 hPa
HMSA2 25 mi26 min NE 14 G 21 41°F 997.7 hPa35°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 26 mi88 min ENE 14 42°F 997 hPa38°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 31 mi28 min NNE 13 G 16 42°F 996.6 hPa40°F
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 56 mi28 min N 17 G 18 40°F 33°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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N1

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK20 mi65 minENE 139.00 miLight Rain44°F37°F76%998.5 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK24 mi65 minNNE 114.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist41°F37°F89%997.9 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E13SE3E10E10E9E7N3E3NE4NE5SE10SE10SE7E4E4E12E7E11NE11NE13
G21
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1 day agoSW4SW4SW6W7SW3E3N8N9NE6CalmN3N3Calm3CalmCalmW3W4SE3E5E8E4E15
G21
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2 days agoSE6SE8S6S14
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G17
S8W7SW12SW10SW9S9S8W10SW9W7SW6S6S6SW4SW6S53

Tide / Current Tables for Anchor Point, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.