Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Anchor Point, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 9:00AMSunset 4:27PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 7:46 PM AKST (04:46 UTC) Moonrise 1:34PMMoonset 8:46PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 322 Pm Akst Tue Nov 13 2018
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anchor Point, AK
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location: 59.77, -151.84     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 140127
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
427 pm akst Tue nov 13 2018

Analysis and upper levels
A weakening north moving front which brought strong winds and rain
to the gulf and mixed precipitation to western alaska is still
producing a little light rain over the northern susitna valley.

Cloud breaks developed across southcentral with frontal passage
though a few showers continue across the gulf coast. A trough
along with the onset of easterly winds brought renewed
rain showers to kodiak island. A weakening low south of cold bay
is drifting south. The pinch in the pressure gradient between this
low and ridge over eastern russia is producing strong northerly
winds across the eastern central bering sea aleutians. Rain was
located over the ak pen with showers over the aleutians.

Model discussion
Models are in generally good agreement through Thursday.

Differences creep in Thursday night and Friday between model
solutions in the upper levels and progression of the surface front
heading north toward the southern mainland the ec appears to be
the slowest pushing moisture north with the front.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds are most likely. There is
however a chance that some shallow ground fog could develop near
the airport complex Wednesday morning. Due to uncertainty, vcfg
was utilized in the taf.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A ridge builds across the alcan border, bringing drier conditions
across southcentral through Thursday. Patchy fog will be the main
weather challenge over the next two nights as temperature
inversions steepen overnight while surface temperatures drop close
to dew point values. A weak boundary across the northern susitna
valley supports areas of fog tonight. Offshore flow develops
across the southern mainland as the ridge builds and low pressure
dominates over the gulf... Expect gusty conditions at times for
gap locations along the coasts. Across the gulf, a front along the
southern waters stalls this evening, bringing rain to kodiak island
before diminishing Wednesday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible around the core of the low as it tracks across the southern
waters tonight.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
After the most recent storm cycle, the weather will remain quiet
for the next couple of days. In comparison, as offshore flow
keeps the mainland dry. Combined with weak upper ridging, temps
will cool back down, especially in valleys. The only threat for
precip will be over the kuskokwim delta tonight where a small
deformation band associated with the once strong warm front
remains. Otherwise, expect some areas of fog in low lying
valleys, but the normal fog capital of the kuskokwim delta should
remain free for the next couple days given the dry and strong
offshore flow.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The pressure gradient remains tight enough to support strong 30
knot northerly winds over a large part of the bering sea along
with some areas of rain snow showers. The low over the alaska
peninsula will weaken and shift east with a new low center forming
underneath an upper low over the central bering sea. This will
begin to induce a south southeasterly flow over the eastern bering
sea along with increasing chances for rain Thursday. Meanwhile,
over the western bering, a warm front will move into the region
then quickly occlude and elongate, reaching gale force over the
western aleutians before it weakens.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long-term forecast begins Thursday night with an amplifying
upper-level ridge moving from the gulf over the alaska peninsula.

Upstream, a negatively-tilted trough persists from the eastern
bering south to the western gulf while a second trough deepens
over the western aleutians as a strengthening jet rounds its base.

Through the first half of the weekend, the longwave pattern
remains fairly progressive, with the leading ridge moving well
inland over canada as the main trough axis settles along the west
coast of alaska. Moving into early next week the eastward
progression of the trough slows as it anchors over the eastern
half of the state. Model agreement breaks down significantly after
Monday, especially with their respective solutions upstream of
the trough axis. The GFS is the more amplified solution, trying to
build a ridge over the bering ahead of the next trough exiting
eastern russia. The ec, on the other hand, keeps the pattern zonal
with an active jet south of the aleutians and a broad low over
the bering. The canadian takes the middle ground with weak ridging
over the bering quickly replaced by a trough. What this means is
that guidance in the medium and near long-term range (through the
weekend) remains in good agreement with a wet and active pattern
across much of the forecast area. Beyond that, there is some
agreement of a trough ridge trough setup from the western bering
to the eastern bering to the gulf. But confidence on placement and
intensity of these features is slim to none.

At the surface, this translates to a low approaching kodiak island
late Thursday with a trough extending across the bering keeping
things unsettled over southwest alaska. The low moves into the
northern gulf with its occluded front draped across the
southcentral coast by early Friday. Farther west, a second surface
low slides across the aleutians Thursday into Friday with its
occluded front nearing the southwest coast late Friday. A triple
point low is also expected to form south of the akpen late Friday,
moving into the western and northern gulf through the weekend.

This will keep conditions quite wet an unsettled over much of the
mainland through the weekend with some drying likely for southwest
alaska by late Monday into Tuesday as a weak surface ridge tries
to develop.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 178 185.

Synopsis and model discussion... Rc
southcentral alaska... Kh
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ja
long term... Tm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 12 mi46 min 46°F1 ft
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 24 mi28 min 46°F995.8 hPa
HMSA2 25 mi24 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 38°F 995.8 hPa34°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 26 mi76 min SSE 5.1 995 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 31 mi16 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 42°F 995.8 hPa40°F
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 56 mi16 min NW 9.9 G 9.9 40°F 997.3 hPa37°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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NE16
G22
NE14
G19
NE14
G20
E14
G18
NE10
G14
E6
G9
S11
G15
S7
G10
SE8
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N4
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NE4
N6
G9
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G12
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G15
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G12
1 day
ago
NE14
G19
NE16
G23
NE19
G29
NE16
G22
NE17
G25
NE18
G25
NE16
G23
NE19
G26
E18
G25
NE13
G20
NE14
G20
NE13
G17
NE14
G17
NE14
G17
NE13
G19
NE16
G21
NE15
G22
NE16
G23
NE13
G19
NE15
G20
NE14
G22
NE15
G22
NE18
G25
NE14
G21
2 days
ago
NE17
G27
NE18
G31
NE21
G30
NE18
G28
NE19
G30
NE20
G28
NE16
G27
NE15
G22
NE17
G25
NE12
G16
NE15
G21
NE15
G24
NE13
G21
NE15
G21
NE14
G21
NE14
G20
NE16
G23
NE12
G18
NE16
G21
NE15
G20
NE12
G18
NE13
G18
NE12
G18
NE12
G18

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK20 mi53 minN 410.00 miFair32°F30°F96%996.3 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK24 mi53 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist34°F32°F92%996 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9NE6SE9
G18
S8S12S7
G16
3SE56E8SE5NE3N3CalmCalmCalmNE4SW3CalmSE3CalmCalmN3N4
1 day agoCalmCalmE8NE6NE6E6SE12
G22
SE9
G20
SE9
G17
SE9
G14
NW3CalmN3CalmNE3E3SE5E12NE12NE12NE13NE12
G19
NE13
G19
NE12
G19
2 days agoNE17
G26
N11NE10NE11N8N8NE9NE6E4NE4NE7NE4NE3NE4CalmSE3E4CalmE3E4CalmCalmW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Anchor Point, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.