Thursday, April26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Anchor Point, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 9:55PM Thursday April 26, 2018 5:35 AM AKDT (13:35 UTC) Moonrise 3:32PMMoonset 4:09AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 347 Am Akdt Thu Apr 26 2018
Today..S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Showers.
Tonight..S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Showers.
Fri..S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Showers.
Fri night..S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Sat..SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun through Mon..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anchor Point, AK
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location: 59.77, -151.84     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 261307
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
507 am akdt Thu apr 26 2018

Analysis and upper levels
An upper level low situated over the bering straight is leading to
a broad area of cyclonic flow across most of the state this
morning bringing continued cool and unsettled weather over most
of the region. Persistent moist southwesterly flow combined with
a pool of cold air aloft is leading to widespread showers over the
southern half of the mainland, with periods of heavy rain seen
over the gulf coast, bristol bay coast, and over the kuskokwim
delta this morning. The strong southerly flow is organizing these
areas of showers into narrow bands, leading to high variability in
the precipitation coverage this morning. A shortwave ridge is
beginning to build in across the western half of the bering sea
and aleutian island chain bringing a brief lull in the weather,
though widespread stratus is developing underneath the ridge axis.

Model discussion
The models remain in good overall agreement through the rest of
the week with the timing of a series of short waves that will
rotate around the upper low this week. There continue to be model
differences in the placement of individual precipitation bands
today, thus used scattered or widespread coverage to capture the
spatial uncertainty of precipitation. Looking into Friday, models
are in good agreement with a surface low dropping south from
ne russia into the ak mainland, increasing confidence of
widespread snow over southwest and rain snow over southcentral.

Aviation
Panc... The terminal will remain predominatelyVFR through the day
as showers moving north up the cook inlet this morning should
stay to the west and east of the anchorage bowl. Gusty SE winds
should slacken a touch this morning before the turnagain arm
winds kick up again later in the afternoon. As the surface warms
and instability increases this afternoon, showers will become more
widely scattered with convective bands forming over the chugach
and possibly downstream of the terminal. As a shortwave trough
moves through this evening, mid-level winds will become more
southwesterly directing any showers forming over the kenai towards
the terminal.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The large upper long wave trough still anchored over the eastern
bering sea western alaska will send a fairly well defined short
wave over the cook inlet to mat-su corridor this afternoon. This
wave passes through tonight, however, another more prominent wave
replaces it Friday afternoon. Unstable conditions will prevail as
cold air moves over the region supports shower development. The
main focus of showers will be with the short wave which moves in
today and the next wave which moves in on Friday. Cold air moving
in aloft combined with mild daytime temperatures will make for a
challenging precipitation type forecast. Overall, lower
elevations will see rain showers with a transition toward snow
showers in the mountains and northern susitna valley. A mix of
rain and snow showers are still possible at lower elevations
especially during the overnight hours and in the vicinity of
heavier showers. Stability indices today over the western kenai
peninsula could support isolated thunderstorms or certainly
locally heavy shower activity.

Gusty gap flows are still expected across turnagain arm, out of
knik valley, and along the copper river today through Friday.

Additionally, brisk southerly winds will develop over the western
gulf cook inlet tonight with the approach of the trough from the
west. Winds will likely hold until after trough passage later
Friday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
A low near the bering strait is bringing broad southwesterly flow
to southwest alaska resulting in showers over the area that will
linger through the day. Tonight a shortwave will push across the
northern bering and move through southwest alaska bringing a
short, but heavier, round of snow. Weak ridging will then move
over the area before a front from the bering makes its way to the
southwest coast by Friday evening. The front will pull up a lot of
warm air from the south which will transition much of the snow to
rain as it pushes inland Friday night.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Ridging over the western bering will keep the aleutians in
westerly flow with minimum precip today until a front from the
north pacific tracks over the western aleutians this afternoon.

The front is pulling up a significant amount of warm air and will
primarily bring rain as it tracks across the aleutians through
Friday. By Friday evening it will have made it to the southern
mainland leaving the bering and aleutians in broad westerly flow.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
A system over southeast alaska Friday evening will quickly move
east and dissipate Friday night. A fairly significant upper low
will be over the central eastern bering Friday night. The leading
front will push across southwest alaska early Saturday morning
and then into the gulf and southcentral during the day on Saturday.

The upper low will move eastward across the gulf Saturday night.

A fairly strong surface low will move into the bering on Saturday.

After this, the model guidance begins to diverge. The models
agree on continued fast zonal flow aloft, along with the general
idea of an upper low in the bering and upper ridging over the
northeast pacific into eastern alaska. However, the location and
timing of various systems has a large spread in the guidance.

Therefore the fairly active weather pattern will continue, with
the details not well defined. Thus the wpc guidance begins to lean
fairly heavily on the ensemble means after Monday.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gales... 155 165 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179.

Synopsis and model discussion... Kvp
southcentral alaska... Bc
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dk
long term... Bl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 12 mi57 min 41°F2 ft
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 24 mi47 min 42°F1018.2 hPa
HMSA2 25 mi43 min SSE 1.9 G 4.1 39°F 1018.2 hPa31°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 26 mi65 min S 6 -40°F 1017 hPa
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 31 mi65 min SSE 6 G 9.9 41°F 1017.7 hPa35°F
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 56 mi35 min SE 6 G 7 36°F 1018.8 hPa (+0.0)34°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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S11
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G14
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G13
SW7
G11
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G12
W14
SW8
G13
SW18
SE8
SW5
G10
E8
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G11
S4
SW9
G12
S4
SE4
NW1
SW10
SW3
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SE7
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G11
SW5
1 day
ago
NE2
SE5
G9
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E4
G8
N3
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N9
NE2
G5
SE9
G13
E10
G13
S5
G12
S5
SW15
G20
S15
S23
G29
SW16
SW23
SW20
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SW22
S22
G27
S18
S18
S12
G16
2 days
ago
NE13
G17
NE10
G14
NE8
G16
NE7
NE7
G10
NE10
G13
NE12
G15
NE9
NE8
NE8
NE6
G9
N6
NW2
N7
G10
N5
N4
NE3
NE5
NE3
G6
NE2
SE3
SE3
SE2
NE2

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK20 mi42 minESE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy40°F32°F73%1018.7 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK24 mi42 minN 09.00 miFair34°F30°F89%1018.5 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5
G14
S6S5S6SE10
G15
SE12
G22
SE8SE8SE7
G18
S7S9
G16
S7
G15
SE9SE7SE10
G15
SE6
G16
SE4SE3SE10
G17
E5SE6NE3CalmE3
1 day agoE15
G22
E12
G21
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G27
E16
G24
SE16
G26
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G29
SE17
G26
E21
G32
E15
G23
SE4S11
G19
SW20
G31
SW15
G25
SW12SW13SW10SW13SW13
G19
S73SE5S6S9S8
2 days agoCalmCalmE4NE5E4CalmW6SW5SW5CalmS6SE8SE8
G15
S8
G15
S6S6S5SE11
G23
SE12
G18
SE9
G17
SE12
G21
E9
G21
E17
G24
SE13
G20

Tide / Current Tables for Anchor Point, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska
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Anchor Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:13 AM AKDT     17.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:09 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:19 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:09 AM AKDT     1.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:28 PM AKDT     17.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:31 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:26 PM AKDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:52 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
16.317.61714.610.66.331.52.24.58.11215.216.916.914.811.16.52.40.20.22.46.210.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:25 AM AKDT     18.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:09 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:17 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM AKDT     1.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:40 PM AKDT     17.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:30 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:59 PM AKDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:53 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
16.318.218.116.212.78.54.62.21.83.56.911.11517.517.816.313.18.84.41.20.11.34.79.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.