Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Anchor Point, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 9:49AMSunset 4:29PM Thursday January 17, 2019 8:14 AM AKST (17:14 UTC) Moonrise 12:45PMMoonset 5:00AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ141 Kachemak Bay- 353 Am Akst Thu Jan 17 2019
Today..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
Fri night..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat through Sun..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anchor Point, AK
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location: 59.77, -151.84     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 171322
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
422 am akst Thu jan 17 2019

Analysis and upper levels
A 984 mb surface low is located about 400 miles south of sand
point, which is being supported by a 75 kt upper level southerly
jet on the east side of the low. Satellite imagery shows a
secondary surface low developing north of the main low over
bristol bay. A front extends over the top of the low complex from
the kuskokwim delta coast south across the akpen and kodiak
island. The upper level southerly jet is pumping in moisture and
warmer air from the north pacific with radar and local
observations showing rain across kodiak island and the eastern
slopes of the northern aleutian range, and southern alaskan
range. Upper level ridging extends across most of the eastern
mainland, with southcentral lying in between the low to the
southwest and ridging to the east and north, bringing mostly
cloudy skies but generally dry and quiet weather to the area this
morning.

Further west, an upper level ridge axis is centered over the
central bering aleutians bringing cold northerly flow from the
pribilofs west. Open cell cumulus can be seen on satellite imagery
streaming south across the central bering aleutians bringing
scattered snow showers to the area. High clouds can be seen
streaming north and east across the western aleutians out ahead of
the next storm system approaching the area.

Model discussion
The numerical models are in good agreement through Friday with
most of the synoptic level features handled well. By Saturday, a
weak complex of surface lows is depicted over the gulf of alaska
with models struggling to handle how these lows move and interact
with each other. Overall, with these features remaining well
offshore, impacts to the forecast are expected to be minimal with
the exception of northerly outflow winds along the coast.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will continue through
Friday morning.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
Remnants of an old front will bring rain to kodiak island through
the morning. It will then diminish through the afternoon as the low south
of the alaska peninsula pulls the moisture further south. The
pattern will then shift as an upper level low over the yukon
territory will pull down cold, dry air over southcentral alaska
into the weekend. This will keep the skies clear and allow
temperatures to drop with inland locations dropping into the
single digits. The copper river basin will be even colder with
temperatures expected to drop to around negative 20 Friday and
Saturday nights.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
A frontal band stretching from the kuskokwim delta south across
the alaska peninsula will begin weakening this afternoon and then
dissipate as it starts to shears apart this evening. A frontal
wave rotating around the north side of a broader vertically
stacked low to the south, will track from east to west across the
alaska peninsula tonight. This will strengthen northerly flow and
bring a second round of mixed precipitation (mostly rain along the
south side and snow along the north, with more predominant snow
further to the west) to the alaska peninsula. Over mainland
southwest alaska, snow along the kuskokwim delta coast will taper
off this afternoon with chances for light snow further inland due
to a secondary weak trough ending from north to south tonight.

For Friday and Saturday cool, dry breezy northeasterly flow will
prevail.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
Upper level ridging over the central aleutians will north build
across the bering today and tonight, pushing the arctic trough
north over eastern russia and the bering strait. A strengthening
frontal wave will track north towards the western aleutians today
with the associated surface low lifting just to the west late
tonight. A second stronger low will approach the western aleutians
from the south Friday and Friday night, spreading a frontal
system across the western and central aleutians Saturday, and
into the southwest bering Saturday night. Further to the east, a
large blocking upper level high will build over the north central
bering on Friday and remain in place through Saturday.

Marine (days 3 through 5 Sat through mon)...

confidence has increased in the strength of the easterly winds
over the western bering Sat into sun. This is primarily due to
better agreement on the closed high over the bering strait and
some cold air moving in from the eastern bering. Thus, have
started to trend winds high bringing them now into the gale force
range. We will monitor this area for the potential for at least
some storm force gusts.

The low that develops late Sun into Mon near the alaska peninsula
still has a high amount of uncertainty surrounding it. Most of it
is tied to exactly what happens with the upper level low over the
mainland. So for now, will likely elect to just hold to small
craft winds. The best chance for any gales associated with this
system would be on its southern flank somewhere south of kodiak
island late Mon into tue.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7 Sun through wed)...

the period begins with a dominating upper level arctic low over
the northern part of the state. As the low deepens and the trough
axis extends over southwest alaska, another important feature to
the south comes into view by mon. A north pacific low moves into
the southwestern gulf of alaska. While all models indicate the
presence of this arctic low as well as the low in the gulf,
however model solutions continue to struggle with placement of
the low by tue. Currently, the ec canadian solution places the low
on a track inland through southcentral thereby introducing warmer
air and moisture, and ultimately warmer temperatures. Conversely,
the GFS places the low track much further east; moving inland
over the copper river basin, thereby delaying the warm-up period
over southcentral for early next week. By the end of the period on
wed, all model solutions indicate general agreement with the
placement of a north american ridge building over the southern
half of the state. A stretch of warmer weather like this across
south central is fairly typical in january, so much so that it is
actually reflected in the snow depth climatology for anchorage. It
is usually accompanied by some downsloping winds.

Meanwhile, over the bering, a closed upper level high continues
to support cold air advection from siberia through western ak.

This high slowly drifts westward by Tue and allows an upper level
kamchatka low over the western aleutians to advance eastward. By
wed, this low will ultimately reinforce the building north
american ridge by advecting warmer air in from the south.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale: 155 165 170 172 177 178 411 414.

Heavy freezing spray: 180.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Kvp
southcentral alaska... Dk
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Jr
marine long term... Mo ko


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APXA2 1 mi90 min E 4.1 27°F 1005 hPa24°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 12 mi45 min 42°F1 ft
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 24 mi45 min 42°F1003.8 hPa
HMSA2 25 mi33 min ENE 4.1 G 6 36°F 1003.6 hPa31°F
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 26 mi105 min ESE 1 36°F 1003 hPa33°F
FILA2 - Flat Island Light, AK 31 mi45 min NNE 5.1 G 6 39°F 1003.6 hPa39°F
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 56 mi45 min N 6 G 7 33°F 24°F

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK20 mi22 minN 010.00 miFair32°F30°F92%1004.2 hPa
Seldovia, Seldovia Airport, AK24 mi22 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist31°F28°F92%1004 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8NE7NE9NE6NE8E12NE14NE7NE6NE8NE7NE6E5CalmE7E9E45CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE4NE7NE7NE3CalmNE6E7CalmNE3NE5NE3N3E5E3CalmCalmCalmN3E34CalmNW4NE3Calm
2 days agoCalmE55NE4E4E3NE7E7SE3CalmCalmNW5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N4E3CalmNE3NW3N3

Tide / Current Tables for Anchor Point, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.