Thursday, July20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ninilchik, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:02AMSunset 11:09PM Thursday July 20, 2017 2:38 PM AKDT (22:38 UTC) Moonrise 1:01AMMoonset 6:26PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 938 Am Akdt Thu Jul 20 2017
Today..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tonight..NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat through Sun..S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ninilchik, AK
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location: 60.12, -151.55     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 201256
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
456 am akdt Thu jul 20 2017

Analysis and upper levels
Rain continues along the north gulf coast this morning but has
begun to slowly diminish from north to south across the remainder
of southcentral and the bristol bay region as a large upper level
low crosses the alaska peninsula into the gulf. An associated
front is beginning to pivot from northwest-southeast to more of an
east-west orientation and sink to the south with the advance of
the low, keeping widespread rain over the gulf waters and kodiak
island. High pressure and marine stratus are in place across much
of the bering, although a north pacific disturbance undercutting
the ridge is bringing rain to portions of the western and central
aleutians as it tracks quickly to the east-southeast.

Model discussion
Models show good synoptic agreement into the weekend as the upper
low continues into the far southern gulf and the bering ridge
begins to extend eastward across the southern mainland, signaling
a shift to a warmer and drier pattern in the coming days. Given
the overall model consensus, preferred the enhanced detail of the
nam for the morning forecast package.

Aviation
Panc... Winds will increase out of the southeast this afternoon in
response to surface heating in the southern susitna valley and a
weakening down-inlet pressure gradient. Winds will then subside by
late evening.VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The front that has been bringing widespread rain to southcentral
over the past several days will slowly weaken today and drift
south into the gulf of alaska. Radar this morning already
indicates a downward trend in precipitation intensity and
coverage. Meanwhile, the cross barrier coastal jet continues to
maintain its strength and support downsloping as well as gusty
winds in prince william sound and the barren islands region.

Conditions will continue to improve Friday as an upper level
ridge pushes further into the region and supports clearing skies
and warmer temperatures. A few diurnal showers could form by
afternoon along the alaska range and talkeetna mountains, but
generally rainfall will be limited. In addition, winds will be
much weaker across prince william sound, cook inlet and the barren
islands as pressure gradients slacken Thursday night into Friday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska
As the low south of the alaska peninsula continues its track to
the south, ridging will build in over southwest alaska. In
between these two features there will be enough instability over a
corridor from the middle kuskokwim valley through the ahklun
mountains for potential thunderstorm development. After the
ridging moves in, shower activity will be diminished through
Saturday with only some light afternoon showers, mainly over the
mountains.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians
Ridging continues to build in over the bering from the west
bringing fog to many areas around the bering and aleutians. A low
that is traveling south of the high is moving through the western
aleutians and is headed for the central aleutians before tracking
south into the north pacific. High pressure will then dominate the
bering until a warm front moves into the western bering Saturday,
then tracks through the northern bering.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
At the start of the long term forecast on Sunday a low amplitude
upper level ridge over the southern bering keeps the aleutians and
southern mainland in a dry regime. A strong shortwave racing
east from kamchatka Sunday night increases chances for rain
showers into Monday along the northern and eastern bering as the
wave rides along the periphery of the ridge. This strong wave is
expected to dive southeast over the kuskokwim coast, allowing
multiple weak waves to follow. This energy develops into a new
upper level trough over the gulf by the middle of next week.

Overall, the southern mainland continues in a dry pattern through
the next week with increasing chances for afternoon showers
mainly along the mountains.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None
marine... None
fire weather... None
synopsis and model discussion... Cb
aviation... Cb
southcentral alaska... Eln
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dk
long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HMRA2 - Kachemak Bay Reserve, AK 37 mi69 min S 4.1 60°F 1009 hPa50°F
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 39 mi61 min 51°F1 ft
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 40 mi51 min NE 8 G 12 61°F 55°F1012.5 hPa
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 43 mi39 min N 11 G 12 61°F 1013.1 hPa (+0.7)48°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 48 mi51 min 50°F1010.4 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK33 mi46 minENE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F48°F58%1010.9 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E13E14E11E10NE7E5--CalmN5N4E5CalmCalmE4NE5E6N4E9E7NE11NE11E8NE10
1 day agoN4CalmNW3W3CalmSW4S3W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6N3CalmCalmCalmE4E5E8E11NE9
2 days agoCalmSE4W7SW63CalmW4W7Calm4NW33CalmN4S6S5CalmCalm3CalmSE6E4SE9SE10
G20

Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Ninilchik
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:32 AM AKDT     19.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:02 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:20 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM AKDT     -0.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:48 PM AKDT     17.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:47 PM AKDT     3.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:03 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
18.919.117.414.410.35.92-0.4-0.81.14.89.313.616.417.11613.4106.543.45.28.913.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:32 AM AKDT     19.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:03 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:21 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:32 AM AKDT     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:48 PM AKDT     17.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:37 PM AKDT     3.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:03 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1919.117.314.210.15.61.8-0.4-0.51.65.39.713.816.517.115.913.39.76.243.75.89.413.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.