Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ninilchik, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 8:07PM Tuesday September 19, 2017 11:33 PM AKDT (07:33 UTC) Moonrise 4:52AMMoonset 6:28PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 300 Pm Akdt Tue Sep 19 2017
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed night..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming ne 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Thu and Thu night..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri through Sat..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ninilchik, AK
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location: 60.12, -151.55     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 200002
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
402 pm akdt Tue sep 19 2017

Analysis and upper levels
A trough over the northern gulf in combination with a ridge
stretching north across bristol bay, is producing gusty outflow
(n-nw winds) across the western and north gulf coasts. Patchy fog
formed under clearing skies and weak subsidence across cook
inlet, anchorage bowl, mat-su valleys, kenai peninsula, and the
valdez area. Rain, associated with a frontal trough moving east
across the kuskokwim delta, is spreading eastward to the western
kuskokwim valley western bristol bay. Variable cloudiness with
little rain was observed across much of the bering sea aleutians
this morning.

Model discussion
The models are all in good agreement through the short-term. Only
real main difference is the NAM still appears to be the outlier
in solutions of a developing low south of the aleutians. The
gfs ecwmf solutions will be used out west and the NAM in the east.

Aviation
Panc... Light winds withVFR conditions will persist through the
day. There is a risk of some fog or low ceilings late tonight and
Wednesday morning, but not high enough to warrant adding to the
taf yet.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
An upper level ridge building in from the west will continue to
influence our weather through the end of the day tomorrow. Dry
offshore NW flow will lead to mostly sunny skies over a majority
of the region tonight. The combination of clear skies, light
winds, and longer nights will allow temperatures to drop fairly
significantly overnight, especially for more inland locations.

Lows are expected to be in the mid to upper 30's in the
anchorage mat-su areas, though typical cold spots like east
anchorage could see lows approaching the freezing mark. Patchy fog
is also possible in the early morning hours over the cook inlet
and near the coast. A weak system moving in from the west will
bring increasing cloud cover tomorrow morning and light rain
extending down as far south as palmer. This system will move
through fairly quickly and skies will begin to clear up by the
evening hours. Temperatures are expected to again drop well into
the 30's for most location north of the kenai peninsula.

For Thursday, a frontal system associated with a strong low over
the north pacific will push north into the region, bringing
widespread rain from kodiak, north into the kenai peninsula,
anchorage, and the mat-su by late morning to early afternoon
lasting through most of the day. Rainfall amounts with this
system do not look to be overly impressive along the coast as the
orientation of the upper level jet will be aimed more to the east,
keeping southcentral out of the core of heaviest precipitation.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Scattered to numerous showers will continue across the northern
portion of the area through Wednesday as the system currently
tracking through the yukon delta is reinforced by a trailing
shortwave moving across the kuskokwim delta and lower kuskokwim
valley Wednesday morning. More widespread stratiform rain will
then arrive late Wednesday evening along the bristol bay coastline
as the bering front begins to push inland over southwest ak
through Thursday morning. Rain looks to continue into Thursday
evening and beyond as the longwave trough extending from the
arctic phases with the upper low south of the aleutian chain and
helps to establish broad southwest flow over the region into the
latter half of the week.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The front currently moving over the aleutians will be the primary
feature of interest in the short term as rain and gale force
winds spread from the central and eastern aleutians tonight to the
alaska peninsula Wednesday morning and the pribilof islands
Wednesday afternoon. The eastern half of the bering will remain
in a wet and windy pattern into Thursday night as the parent north
pacific low makes slow eastward progress from south of adak to
south of unalaska. Meanwhile, western portions of the bering
including shemya should remain on the drier side in northeast
flow on the back side of the evolving longwave trough.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Beginning the extended period forecast Thursday night, there will
be an arctic trough merging with a north pacific warm front over
the state. Broad southwest flow will bring rain to most of
southern alaska heading into Saturday as the upper trough remains
in place. Uncertainty develops on Saturday night with another warm
front moving north toward the gulf of alaska with the ecmwf
favoring a deep 978 hpa surface low tucked into the west side of
the gulf. However, the 12z GFS and canadian gdps models are
notably weaker and much farther east with the surface low.

However, even with this uncertainty, there will still be plenty of
forcing for continued coastal rain and rain chances inland through
the weekend. Eventually, the upper low will move southward into
the north pacific and gulf of alaska, which, in theory, should
result in less precipitation chances heading into mid late week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 170 172>177 179.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Rc
southcentral alaska... Kvp
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Cb
long term... Ja


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46108 - Central Cook Inlet - 175 39 mi56 min 52°F4 ft
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 40 mi46 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 54°F1018.4 hPa
DRFA2 - Drift River Terminal, AK 43 mi34 min Calm G 0 49°F 1018.7 hPa (+0.6)46°F
OVIA2 - 9455500 - Seldovia, AK 48 mi46 min 52°F1019.5 hPa

Wind History for Nikiski, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homer, Homer Airport, AK33 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair43°F39°F89%1019.5 hPa

Wind History from AHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNW3CalmE3NE4E4N3NE4NE3NE5E6SE3S5SW6SW10W7SW9SW8SW7SW3NE3NE3Calm
1 day agoNE3Calm3SW9SW12SW9SW13SW11SW11SW9SW5SW9SW12SW13SW14SW12SW10SW9SW6CalmCalmNE3CalmE3
2 days agoNE5NE4CalmNW5N5E4CalmN3CalmCalmE4CalmSE5S5SW5SW7SW6SW7SW7W5CalmCalmCalmE4

Tide / Current Tables for Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Ninilchik
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:47 AM AKDT     22.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:47 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:14 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:17 AM AKDT     -1.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:11 PM AKDT     22.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:10 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:44 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:37 PM AKDT     -1.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.511.417.221.122.120.316.410.95.10.4-1.9-1.12.88.715.120.122.321.618.413.47.62.4-0.8-1.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Ninilchik, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:47 AM AKDT     22.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:47 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:14 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:07 AM AKDT     -1.78 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:11 PM AKDT     22.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:11 PM AKDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:44 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:27 PM AKDT     -1.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.21217.521.222.120.316.210.54.60.1-1.8-0.53.69.415.520.222.421.518.213.17.22-0.8-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.