Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seward, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:16AMSunset 11:46PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 5:35 AM AKDT (13:35 UTC) Moonrise 1:17PMMoonset 1:35AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ121 Resurrection Bay- 346 Am Akdt Wed Jun 20 2018
Today..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
Tonight..S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Thu..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Thu night..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri through Sat..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seward, AK
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location: 60.13, -149.42     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 201305
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
505 am akdt Wed jun 20 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The pattern remains in a persistent synoptic regime featuring a
stationary upper level trough over the eastern bering sea with a
strong upper high over western canada and yukon. This pattern
keeps southern alaska under the influence of continued onshore
flow, bringing in coastal showers and clouds, especially for
locations west of prince william sound. At the base of the trough,
there is a weak low tapping some subtropical moisture around 50n.

This low will usher in more clouds and rain into southwest today,
with the trough axis lifting north into southcentral Thursday.

Model discussion
The models are in excellent agreement with the general synoptic
scale pattern through the weekend. In general, the trough over the
eastern bering sea will slowly weaken with a drying trend across
southern alaska heading into the weekend. The challenges will
revolve around more local scale patterns. For this forecast the
hi-res models were favored.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions will persist. Some southeast winds may move
over the terminal this evening into the overnight hours, but
should be much less than past days with winds being only being in
the 10 to 18 kt range. Showers this morning should end quickly
with dry conditions expected thereafter.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska
An upper level disturbance over the west coast will continue to
bring areas of clouds and showers to most areas west of the copper
river basin today. While a majority of these showers should occur
from the western gulf into the southern kenai, isolated showers
should continue for most of the day today as far east as the
matanuska valley. Further to the east over the copper river basin
conditions should be much drier and warmer today as a ridge of
high pressure noses in from the east, bring temperatures this
afternoon well into the 70's with gusty southerly winds along the
copper river. Starting on Thursday a shortwave moving through the
gulf will spread these showers into most of southcentral,
especially during the afternoon-evening as daytime heating causes
showers forming over the chugach to move northward in the
southerly flow aloft. Cyclonic southerly flow behind then
shortwave will then bring continued mostly cloudy skies and rain
showers into Friday, however these are expected to be much less
organized, allowing for more breaks in the Sun and clouds with
warming temperatures.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Under the cyclonic flow of the low over the eastern bering and
small troughs rotating around it, showery conditions and moist
southeasterly flow will remain over much of the southwest mainland
through Thursday afternoon. This system will phase with a fast
approaching disturbance from the north pacific, and redevelop
over the northern bering Thursday afternoon through Friday night
while slowly tracking westward. This system's new position over
the bering will shift the pattern to a more onshore southwesterly
flow pattern, feeding moisture into the area and causing some
breaks in cloud coverage. This will cause some scattered
convective showers to develop over the area Friday afternoon.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The upper level low centered over the eastern bering, alaska
peninsula and bristol bay area will remain in that general
location through Thursday before beginning to drift north Thursday
night and Friday. At the surface, the eastern bering low will
phase with a weaker north pacific system speeding through the
southwest mainland, and redevelop over the northern bering
Thursday afternoon through Friday night. Meanwhile the western
half of the bering remains under stable high pressure through
Friday, with fog and low stratus being the main impacts over the
area. The ridge begins to push southward into the north pacific
Friday afternoon, as a front approaches the western aleutians and
the above mentioned low tracks further westward into the
northcentral bering.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7)
The long term forecast begins Friday night with the persistent
long-wave trough anchored over the eastern bering western
alaska. Upstream, an elongated ridge extends across the canadian
rockies north into the yukon and eastern alaska. Between the two,
an upper-level shortwave is moving northward through the gulf of
alaska. A more potent upper-level disturbance and surface low in
the northeast pacific is continuing toward the alaska peninsula.

Models are in fairly good agreement with the track of the low
moving toward the alaska panhandle for the weekend. As it does, a
surface ridge will lift northward across the gulf and into
southern and southwest alaska for Saturday, reducing any residual
onshore flow and producing a warming trend for the weekend.

However, the aforementioned shortwave will also move across the
region, providing enough instability to generate clouds and
showers. Scattered clouds and showers continue into Sunday as a
second, weaker shortwave moves through the interior of southern
alaska.

The overall pattern becomes more progressive by the end of the
weekend with a zonal jet stream south of the state bringing two
lows across the aleutians toward the northern gulf. The first will
slide from the western aleutians Saturday to the gulf by Monday
evening. The second will approach the central aleutians by
Tuesday afternoon. Although it is still a long way out and there
is significant model divergence by early next week, there is some
indication that the development toward a more progressive pattern
by the end of the weekend could shift the longwave pattern and
kick the persistent upper-level low over the bering to the east.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Flood advisory 145.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ja
southcentral alaska... Dek
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Tp
long term... Tm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 1 mi47 min 49°F
PILA2 - Pilot Rock, AK 27 mi65 min NNE 2.9 G 2.9 1017.2 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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G12
W14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seward, AK2 mi42 minNNW 30.25 miFog46°F46°F100%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from AMR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5CalmCalmN4CalmW11
G15
W10W8W9NW9NW6W8NW7N6NW7W3N4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day ago3W103W3W9W5NW63N8NW9N9NW9N7NW35S9S8
G14
S13SW5S4S5S4N4N4
2 days agoS86N4N5NW3N7NW7N4SE7SE9
G19
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G17
S76W8NW75NW6NW4N5NW5N5NW8NW11W8

Tide / Current Tables for Seward, Resurrection Bay, Alaska
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Seward
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Wed -- 01:19 AM AKDT     2.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:34 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:52 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 04:32 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:12 AM AKDT     8.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:36 PM AKDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:16 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:23 PM AKDT     9.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:26 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.32.52.73.656.67.98.58.37.25.43.41.60.50.41.22.94.978.69.49.38.46.8

Tide / Current Tables for Aialik Bay, North end, Alaska
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Aialik Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:15 AM AKDT     2.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:35 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:52 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 04:35 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:25 AM AKDT     8.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:34 PM AKDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:17 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:32 PM AKDT     9.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:26 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.32.42.73.85.36.77.88.58.47.55.93.81.80.50.41.43.156.98.49.39.48.57

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.