Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seward, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 4:51AMSunset 11:01PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 4:36 AM AKDT (12:36 UTC) Moonrise 1:02AMMoonset 7:08AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ121 Resurrection Bay- 345 Am Akdt Wed May 22 2019
Today..N wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Thu..S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Thu night..S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seward, AK
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location: 60.13, -149.42     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 220022
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
422 pm akdt Tue may 21 2019

Analysis and upper levels
The synoptic pattern is made up a complex series of lows aloft.

The first is a decaying vertically stacked low over the eastern
bering. This low is driving much of the cyclonic flow that
encompasses the bering sea and gulf of alaska. The second is a
weakening low aloft in the southern gulf of alaska. This low sits
at the base of a shortwave that is moving through the flow around
the low in the bering. At the surface, conditions are fairly mild
with some showers occurring in the kuskokwim delta ahead of the
surface low in the eastern bering. An inverted trough has
positioned itself over the gulf of alaska, with high pressure
inland, is bringing calm, dry and generally sunny conditions to
much of south central alaska. This area of general low pressure
can be observed in visual satellite imagery as the slight curl of
clouds in the central gulf of alaska. The next active system, a
strong 985 mb low in the north pacific, is moving north towards
the eastern aleutians.

Model discussion
Models have come into good agreement through Thursday and there
is very little variation between them at this point. All models
depict a similar track of the north pacific low as it moves
through the western gulf of alaska on Wednesday. The main,
although slight, difference is the overall strength of this system
as it moves through the western gulf.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions will persist. Light wind are expected into
Wednesday morning. Expect gusty south wind to develop Wednesday
afternoon, persisting well into Wednesday evening, as a weather
front approaches.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 Tuesday
afternoon through Thursday afternoon)...

a surface ridge in place along the northern gulf coast has
brought generally clear skies to much of south central alaska today.

However, a pattern change is underway for Wednesday as a north
pacific low lifts northward and tracks over the alaska peninsula.

A front associated with this low will extend over the gulf of
alaska, bringing rain to kodiak island beginning Wednesday
morning. As the front approaches, the usual southeasterly gap
winds (including turnagain arm into anchorage and knik river
valley into palmer) will begin during the morning hours on
Wednesday, increasing by Wednesday afternoon. The front will
progress northward and lift over south central alaska by
Wednesday evening, by which time most of the northern gulf coast
will see rain. Given the southeasterly flow, the anchorage bowl
will likely not see very much precipitation due to downsloping.

The heaviest precipitation will be along the northern gulf coast
and will eventually taper off by Thursday afternoon as the front
weakens.

.Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3; today
through Friday)...

showers and possible thunderstorms will continue tracking south
to north along the kuskokwim delta today under a weak front. Low
pressure will approach kodiak island Wednesday morning and
continue to move northward through the day, bringing gusty
easterly winds to southwest alaska (with gusts potentially
exceeding 50 mph in the kamishak gap). Downsloped areas including
king salmon should see very little rain. Widespread showers will
remain well north of the low center over the kuskokwim delta. The
low will weaken Thursday and winds will subsequently diminish,
although scattered showers will persist over much of the region.

After a brief break Friday morning, another low will lead to rain
developing over southwest alaska, north of its associated warm
front.

.Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3; today
through Friday)...

generally benign conditions are expected for the majority of the
region. The lone exception will be a low that will approach the
alaska peninsula and eastern aleutians Wednesday morning bringing
gales and moderate rain to areas generally east of unalaska
through the day. Conditions will improve Thursday as the low
weakens. As a ridge amplifies over the western bering, another low
will approach the same aforementioned area Friday morning
bringing more rain to the central and eastern aleutians north of
its associated warm front.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
A low tracking north towards the eastern aleutians late Thursday
night through Friday morning and its associated front will bring
the potential for wind in the 25 to 30 kt range with localized
areas up to 35 kt to the waters around the eastern aleutians, east
into the western gulf. Following that, a more active southerly
storm track will set up in the vicinity over the western gulf,
increasing the potential for periodic small craft advisory to gale
strength wind through the weekend as a series of frontal waves
push north over the western gulf.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
By Thursday evening the upper level pattern will have progressed
to having an upper level trough extending from a north pacific
upper low across the central and eastern aleutians to a second
upper low over southwest alaska with ridging pushing slowly east
over the western aleutians. To the east, a strong upper level
ridge centered over northwest canada will extend a spur ridge
west across northern interior alaska. The upper low over
southwest alaska with troughing extending into south central
alaska will lift gradually north into interior alaska Thursday
night through Friday as a broad upper level ridge over the eastern
pacific builds north into the gulf of alaska. Although conditions
will be cool for fire weather concerns, this pattern shift will
lead to rather breezy conditions in the copper river basin
Thursday afternoon evening through Friday.

By Friday, another north pacific low will have tracked north to be
located south of the eastern aleutians and western alaska
peninsula with its associated front lifting north into the western
gulf of alaska. The ridge in the gulf of alaska will sharpen in
response on Friday with its axis shifting east over the eastern
gulf of alaska and southeast alaska Friday night as the front
pushes north over kodiak island and southwest alaska. The ridge
will continue to amplify over the eastern gulf of alaska and
build into western canada as well on Saturday, while the front
pushes north to stretch across both southwest and south central
alaska as its supporting surface low tracks into bristol bay.

With a very long southerly fetch and temperatures warming at all
levels under the ridge, concerns are growing for an atmospheric
river event developing for southern alaska. While details regarding
the location of the heaviest coastal precipitation and whether or
not it will stall over one spot or oscillate back and forth
across the western and northern gulf coast remain uncertain,
confidence is increasing in the pattern shifting to a significantly
wetter one starting Friday night and persisting through the
weekend.

By around Monday, the upper level ridge shifts east and inland to
be centered over british columbia and alberta with its axis
negatively tilted and extending northwestward across the yukon
territory and into far northeastern alaska. With an elongated
upper low setting up over western alaska and the eastern bering,
south to southeasterly flow will continue to bring frontal systems
across the gulf of alaska and into southern alaska through the
first half of next week. This will keep the pattern on the damp
and active side even if not with as much continuous moderate to
heavy rain as the weekend has the potential to bring to coastal
areas.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale 130 131 132 137 138 351 352 150 155.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ra
southcentral alaska... Dk ko
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ap
marine long term... Jr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 1 mi36 min 49°F1020.3 hPa (+0.3)
PILA2 - Pilot Rock, AK 27 mi36 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 1020.7 hPa (+0.4)44°F
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 77 mi46 min NW 3.9 G 3.9 46°F 48°F1020.4 hPa (+0.0)45°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seward, AK2 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair36°F35°F97%1021.1 hPa

Wind History from AMR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S3S4S9SW7SW665NW7NW7W8W7W9W10W10W8W6SW4CalmS4E3CalmSE3Calm
1 day agoNE5N5SW5W6NW6W6NW4W3NW6W7SW8S12SW9S12S14S10S10S6CalmNE3SE3E5E3S3
2 days agoCalmCalmN4N3NW3W4W3W4W6NW6W8W6W5SW5W5NW5W4NE3N3NE4NE5CalmW33

Tide / Current Tables for Seward, Resurrection Bay, Alaska
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Seward
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Wed -- 02:01 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:41 AM AKDT     10.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:03 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:08 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:33 AM AKDT     -1.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:07 PM AKDT     8.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:27 PM AKDT     3.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:46 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.27.39.310.510.89.87.95.42.60.3-1.1-1.2-0.11.94.26.47.98.58.17.15.64.23.43.4

Tide / Current Tables for Aialik Bay, North end, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.