Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seward, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 9:19AMSunset 4:12PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 4:12 AM AKST (13:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:11PMMoonset 5:11AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
PKZ121 Resurrection Bay- 348 Am Akst Tue Nov 20 2018
Today..N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed night..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri through Sat..N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seward, AK
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 60.13, -149.42     debug


Area Discussion for -
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxak68 pafc 200141
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
441 pm akst Mon nov 19 2018

Analysis and upper levels
A vertically stacked, occluded low can be spotted spinning over
the western gulf of alaska this afternoon. It lies at the base of
an extended trough over southwest mainland alaska with the main
upper level low near st matthew island. Southcentral alaska
remains in the warm sector of this system, but the whole airmass
is moderating due to the low being occluded. Temperatures aloft
are generally colder in southwest mainland alaska and the bering
sea. A secondary trough extends out of the low near st matthew
island to near adak where a surface low is increasing the pressure
gradient in the central and eastern aleutians.

Model discussion
Models remain in good synoptic agreement through much of the
week. The only real item of note is Wednesday night through
Friday with the complex low moving just south of the aleutians.

The models have the same track of the low overall, but there is a
considerable spread in where the individual low centers that make
up the complex move. This is mainly an issue for the aleutian
island forecasts as the remainder of the area will be north of the
complex low and therefore will not be affected much by the
development and movement of the individual centers.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. There may be
enough clearing overnight to allow some fog back into the area
tonight due to an abundance of surface moisture with recent rain
and above freezing temperatures. However, conditions overall are
not terribly favorable to widespread fog with the upper level
trough overhead and some mid and high level clouds over the
region.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The surface low currently in the gulf, south of the kenai
peninsula will track slowly to the northeast tonight through
Tuesday to be located just off of CAPE saint elias by Tuesday
evening. The low will then turn to the northwest and gradually
fill and then dissipate as it drifts towards prince william sound
through Wednesday. A cold upper level low will track from
southwest alaska over southern kodiak island Wednesday evening and
then continue southeastward into the far southern gulf through
Thursday. In response to the upper level low, a cold and drier
air mass will filter into southcentral alaska Wednesday and
Thursday, bringing decreasing clouds and increase offshore flow.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
(tonight through Thursday)
areas of light snow will develop from bristol bay north through
the yk delta tonight as a strengthening trough slides onshore and
lifts north over st. Mary's. Tomorrow, a secondary area of low
pressure will move onshore along with the associated mid-level
trough. This will usher in another round of snow showers from the
kuskokwim delta south to dillingham. Accumulations will be on the
light side, with less than an inch expected in low-lying areas
and an upwards of a couple of inches for the kilbuck mountains
and nushagak hills. Farther south, an area of low pressure
currently south of the pribilofs will bring a mix of rain and snow
for the akpen overnight through Tuesday as its tracks southeast.

As the mid-level trough and associated surface feature move south
and east tomorrow, much colder air will begin to spill south
along the coast. The steeper lapse rates from the cold air
advection combined with the sheared upper-level trough aloft will
help enhance snow shower activity through early Wednesday. The
bulk of these snow showers will fall directly along the coast and
north-facing slopes of the aleutian range. The trough continues
to move south and east Wednesday as a mid-level ridge develops
over the interior. Clearer and drier conditions prevail for much
of the southwest Tuesday night through Thursday as the ridge
settles over the interior, providing a cold offshore flow.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
(tonight through Thursday)
a strengthening area of low pressure south of the pribilofs will
move east toward the akpen tonight with a trailing cold front
sweeping eastward. This system will bring widespread precipitation
along the eastern aleutians and akpen with sustained small-craft
winds over the southern bering and areas of gales along the
pacific side of the chain. High pressure will develop over the
central bering tomorrow as the low moves across the akpen. Brisk
northerly winds and scattered snow showers will also develop over
the eastern bering Tuesday and linger through Wednesday as colder
air advects south between the high and the departing low.

Farther west, another occluded front with widespread
precipitation and weak gales will track over the western
aleutians late Tuesday night, reaching the central aleutians late
Wednesday. A triple-point low will then develop south of adak
Wednesday night and move north into the bering for Thursday.

As it does, its associated warm front will swing across the
eastern aleutians and southern akpen.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)
The long-term forecast remains an uncertain one during the Friday
through Monday time frame. While all the models have a good handle
on day 4 of it being seasonably cold and quiet across mainland
alaska, the uncertainty develops behind where a strong low
tracking eastward along the aleutians goes, how strong it gets,
and how quickly it moves. Each of the models has a different
solution to this. As a new low over the north pacific approaches
it, the low is expected to deepen as the two lows merge. The gfs
and ec both keep the low drifting eastward, while the canadian
tracks it faster into the gulf. In addition, there is significant
uncertainty by Sunday and Monday as to exactly where the cold air
sets up, with the GFS by far the warmest, the canadian the
coldest, and the ec in the middle. Most of the models agree the
seasonably cold and quiet weather for thanksgiving and Friday
turns warmer and wetter by the weekend over southern mainland
alaska, but how much so remains a question with significant
uncertainty.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gales... 130 131 132 174 178.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ah ez
southcentral alaska... Jr
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Tm
long term... Jw


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 1 mi49 min 46°F993.6 hPa
PILA2 - Pilot Rock, AK 27 mi43 min N 11 G 12 994.1 hPa
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 77 mi83 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 43°F 44°F1 ft996.2 hPa (-1.3)43°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
Last
24hr
NE2
SW5
S1
NW4
NW1
SE2
G5
NE1
G5
SE3
SE5
NE2
NE1
SE1
N2
--
E1
N1
NE2
--
NE2
G5
NE1
E2
NE1
NE3
--
1 day
ago
E2
NE1
G4
N1
NE1
G4
W1
G4
W3
N3
NE2
NE1
N3
E1
SE1
NW1
E1
E1
SE1
NE2
NW4
N1
N1
NE2
NE3
SW1
G4
S1
2 days
ago
E3
NE5
NE1
G5
E2
NE3
G6
NE2
G5
NE3
G6
NE2
NE2
NE3
G9
NE3
NE3
G6
NE1
G6
NE3
NE2
N3
NE4
G8
NE2
G5
N3
G9
NE2
G6
NE3
G6
--
NE2

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Seward, AK2 mi20 minNNE 8 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F36°F89%993.9 hPa

Wind History from AMR (wind in knots)
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
Last 24hr3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmNW5CalmCalm4CalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmN5CalmCalmCalmNE3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE3N4CalmCalmNE4CalmNE4NE3N4N3N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N45NE3N5W43E4

Tide / Current Tables for Seward, Resurrection Bay, Alaska
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Seward
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:44 AM AKST     2.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:11 AM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:09 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:58 AM AKST     11.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:11 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:16 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:30 PM AKST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:40 PM AKST     9.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
8.47.15.43.82.62.43.14.76.88.910.51110.48.96.64.120.80.81.93.8689.2

Tide / Current Tables for Aialik Bay, North end, Alaska
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.