Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chenega, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:48AMSunset 6:40PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 12:21 PM AKDT (20:21 UTC) Moonrise 4:40AMMoonset 5:36PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 400 Am Akdt Tue Oct 17 2017
.small craft advisory Wednesday...
Today..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near whittier. Seas 4 ft.
Wed night..W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chenega, AK
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location: 60.33, -148.15     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 171429 cca
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service anchorage ak
629 am akdt Tue oct 17 2017

Analysis and upper levels
The impressive subtropical jet with a core of greater than 180
knots at 300 mb continues to steer a mature low across the
aleutians. Gale force and storm force winds associated with the
low were observed in the vicinity of the western aleutians islands
with the latest ascat pass. While the north pacific and gulf of
alaska have been very unsettled, southcentral including the
anchorage metro area can expect another brisk morning and more
blue skies.

Model discussion
More progressive flow will be on tap this period. At 500 mb, the
models appear to be on lock step depicting the synoptic pattern
through Friday. At the surface, there appears to be reasonable
consensus about the occluded low that is currently over the
aleutians and its progression eastward. However, the nam GFS and
ecmwf have slightly different placements of the low and the
intensity by 12z Wednesday. The NAM is slightly deeper and more
bullish with the track and the gfs ECMWF not as deep at 12z
Wednesday with similar triple point low positions with each other.

And then 24 hrs later, the same models bring the surface low into
se alaska near dall island. The solutions ping into very similar
pressure gradient fields which will result in a gale force front
affecting the aleutians, kodiak island and the gulf of alaska. In
the wake of the frontal passage, a ridge axis will build over the
western aleutians. By Friday, a new cyclone will enter the west
domain and another triple point low will develop over the
aleutians.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A weak upper level trough is moving into the susitna valley today
and will move slowly eastward into the copper river basin
tomorrow. This feature, combined with a dissipating low along the
north gulf coast will be the cause of some clouds and a few snow
showers east of the trough as the surface low pumps in just enough
moisture. There is a sharp delineation in the clouds as seen on
the satellite early this morning. Clouds are over prince william
sound, the palmer and wasilla areas, and northward to the
talkeetna mountains. West of this line (including anchorage,
talkeetna, and seward) skies are mostly clear, but east of this
line the clouds should persist throughout most of the day. Some
snow and rain showers are expected to develop in the prince
william sound area which may make it into the southernmost part of
the copper river basin as well. No significant snow accumulations
are expected.

The largest synoptic weather feature will be the low and
associated front that will traverse the gulf of alaska the next
few days bringing gales to the gulf marine areas and rain to
kodiak island. This low will remain just south of the gulf and
cause gusty northerly winds to develop along the coast tomorrow
into Thursday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Light to moderate rainfall and gusty winds will continue across
the alaska peninsula as a front associated with an area of low
pressure northeast of unalaska moves through the area. The front
is expected to move south of the area as the low pressure system
tracks into the southern gulf of alaska later this morning and
afternoon. Elsewhere across southwest alaska, cloud cover will
continue to envelop the area as moisture rotates around the
aforementioned low pressure system. A few stray showers may be
observed but overall a fairly dry pattern looks in store for much
of the region. Temperatures will return to near normal values by
the second half of the week as an arctic air mass moves overhead.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Scatterometer data was able to do a wonderful cross sections of
the low currently situated just to the northeast of dutch harbor.

It looks like widespread 40 to 55 kt winds are being observed on
the back side of the low pressure system with the strongest winds
staying just outside of alaskan water. Nevertheless, storm force
winds will be observed south of dutch harbor today before the 180+
kt jet quickly shunts the low pressure system into the southern
gulf of alaska. A period of showery weather will persist across
the bering sea through Thursday as warm sst's couple with colder
air aloft acting to steepen low-level lapse rates. Another front
will enter the western bering sea Wednesday afternoon but will be
weaker than this last system as the low pressure system weakens as
it moves into the bering sea. This low will take a similar track
as the current low over the bering sea thanks in large part to the
orientation of the upper level longwave pattern.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The mid and long term forecast beginning Wednesday night has cold
outflow winds over the southern mainland and a low tracking east
along the aleutians. There is good agreement amongst the models
with this low until it moves into the gulf Friday night. At this
point there are differences in how it approaches the southern
mainland. Some of the solutions bring the majority of the
precipitation to the north gulf coast with downsloping over the
northern cook inlet area. However, there are some solutions that
would bring snow to the anchorage area. At this point there
remains too much uncertainty for a high confidence forecast one
way or the other.

By early next week there is some agreement that the remnants of
typhoon lan could track towards the western bering, but there
remains huge differences on its strength and position.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale 150 155 170 172 173 174 175 177 351 352 132.

Storm 176.

Synopsis and model discussion... Pjs
southcentral alaska... Ez
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Mc
long term... Dwk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 33 mi32 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 37°F 44°F996.3 hPa (-0.7)34°F
46076 - Cape Cleare AK 58 mi92 min E 7.8 G 9.7 41°F 50°F4 ft994.8 hPa (-1.6)35°F
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 69 mi52 min 53°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portage, Portage Glacier, AK48 mi29 minN 00.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist31°F28°F89%996.6 hPa

Wind History from ATO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7
G19
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W9W8W8NW4W4W4W5W5W4W54NW4W3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW7
G15
W7W7W6W54CalmW4W3W3W4W4W4W3W4W5W5W4W4W4W6W5W6W6
2 days agoE344E4CalmCalmCalm3CalmW3NW3W3W5W5W9W7W11
G19
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W8W7
G15
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G18
W8
G17

Tide / Current Tables for Chenega Island, Dangerous Passage, Prince William Sound, Alaska
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Chenega Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:11 AM AKDT     11.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:40 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:24 AM AKDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:39 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:42 PM AKDT     12.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:35 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:36 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:54 PM AKDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.511.19.77.34.520.70.82.457.910.51212.311.39.26.43.41.30.61.63.86.69.3

Tide / Current Tables for Eshamy Bay, Knight Island Passage, Prince William Sound, Alaska
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Eshamy Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:13 AM AKDT     12.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:39 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:22 AM AKDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:38 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:44 PM AKDT     12.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:34 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:35 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:52 PM AKDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1211.610.17.64.620.70.92.55.28.210.812.512.811.89.66.63.41.20.61.63.96.99.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.