Saturday, March25, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Chenega, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 8:32PM Saturday March 25, 2017 3:38 AM AKDT (11:38 UTC) Moonrise 6:15AMMoonset 4:14PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 339 Pm Akdt Fri Mar 24 2017
Tonight..W wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near whittier. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
Sat..W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning near whittier. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
Sat night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue through Wed..E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chenega, AK
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location: 60.33, -148.15     debug

Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 250025
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
425 pm akdt Fri mar 24 2017

Analysis and upper levels
A large and deep vertically stacked low about 330 miles south of
the western aleutians is drifting northward along with an east-
west oriented occluded front just out ahead of the low center.

This is producing widespread rain and gale force winds along the
aleutians and into the southern bering sea. Meanwhile, the strong
blocking ridge over the northern to eastern bering sea continues
to provide dry and cool conditions for the remainder of the
forecast area, from the eastern bering sea and alaska peninsula
to the southern mainland and gulf. The trough which was centered
over southcentral has shifted eastward, though a short-wave
dropping down the back side is bringing another weak shot of
arctic air and leading to an uptick in gap winds along the coast.

Model discussion
As expected, the models are struggling with the transition in
pattern. Over the next couple days, the subtropical jet drives
eastward across the north pacific leading to the development of
multiple deep lows. Models quickly diverge on the exact track
of the low centers. Fortunately, through the weekend the track of
theses storms will be far enough south that forecast uncertainty
primarily affects coastal waters south of the aleutians/alaska
peninsula. Have generally used a nam/gfs blend to provide a nice
middle ground solution. For the remainder of the forecast area,
forecast confidence remains high through the weekend.

Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
An upper level trough continues to drop down from the north as
it swings through the southcentral region. Look for possible snow
showers over the northern gulf eastward through the copper river
basin through this weekend. Otherwise, continued offshore flow
with mostly sunny skies for the anchorage bowl through Saturday
before some mid-to-high clouds move into the area by Sunday.

Meanwhile, the gradient begins to weaken but will have the usual
gusty gap winds through whittier, valdez, and thompson pass

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Clear and dry conditions will persist through the weekend, as a
strong area of high pressure and offshore flow continues to
dominate the sensible weather over the region. Continue to expect
sunshine and seasonable temperatures during the day and cool
temperatures at night. While the winds will keep nighttime lows
from dropping as far as they could, the resultant wind chills will
keep things quite chilling over the mainland. For the next
several nights, wind chills in most areas are aiming for a few
degrees on either side of 10 below. However, twelve and a half
hours of daylight (and counting) will still make for healthy
temperature recoveries well into the 20s during the day under
mostly sunny skies.

Short term forecast bering sea/aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A gale force front continues to stall and weaken over the western
and central aleutians through Saturday, as the parent low weakens
and halts its approach to the western aleutians. Showery
conditions and gusty southeast winds will persist over the western
and central aleutians/bering through much of the weekend, while
the eastern bering begins to slowly gain more sky cover. By
Sunday, another low will advance any heavier precipitation further
east into the eastern aleutians, but a very stubborn high
pressure system over the northern bering will curtail significant
northward progression for any areas of precipitation and
associated low pressure systems.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Ridging over the bering will slowly retreat to the north as a
front slides north across the aleutian chain through the end of
the weekend. Real change continues to be advertised by all models
early into next week. All guidance has shifted the focus of a low
that would have only impacted the panhandle to bringing the low
much farther north and into the gulf. There are still some pretty
sizable differences amongst the guidance types that detail how
strong this low will be and what, if any, precipitation may fall
across the anchorage area. At this time, confidence is too low to
go any higher than a slight chance of snow. The bottom line is
that the pattern is now on the verge of change and the days of
cold and endless Sun are going on a brief hiatus. The longwave
patter undergoes a bit of a shift following this early week system
and will set us up to be in a little bit of a favorable patter to
see systems beyond the forecast timeframe reaching all of south

Afc watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Heavy freezing spray... 121 139 185 gale warning... 170
172 173 174 175 176 177 178 .

Synopsis and model discussion... Seb
southcentral alaska... Pd
southwest alaska/bering sea/aleutians... Pepe
long term... Ss

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 33 mi48 min WNW 12 G 14 29°F 40°F1 ft1002.6 hPa (-0.3)17°F
46076 - Cape Cleare AK 58 mi48 min NNW 12 G 14 34°F 41°F2 ft1001.3 hPa (-0.9)26°F
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 69 mi50 min 40°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portage, Portage Glacier, AK48 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair-4°F-8°F83%1004.2 hPa

Wind History from ATO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4NW6NW7NW5W7W73W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3NW7NW86W8W5W4W5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3Calm3W6NW5NW75W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Chenega Island, Dangerous Passage, Prince William Sound, Alaska
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Chenega Island
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Sat -- 12:32 AM AKDT     10.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:26 AM AKDT     2.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:37 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:22 PM AKDT     11.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:14 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:53 PM AKDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:20 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Eshamy Bay, Knight Island Passage, Prince William Sound, Alaska
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Eshamy Bay
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Sat -- 12:34 AM AKDT     10.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:24 AM AKDT     2.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:36 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:24 PM AKDT     11.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:13 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:51 PM AKDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:20 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.