Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cordova, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 4:56AMSunset 10:56PM Monday May 20, 2019 7:15 AM AKDT (15:15 UTC) Moonrise 11:50PMMoonset 5:21AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ126 Port Valdez- 353 Am Akdt Mon May 20 2019
Today..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 3 ft. Rain showers.
Tonight..W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed through Fri..SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cordova, AK
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location: 60.38, -145.4     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 201244
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
444 am akdt Mon may 20 2019

Analysis and upper levels
Several upper level lows are impacting the area this morning. The
strongest low is southwest of st. Paul over the southern bering. A
second upper level low is well south of kodiak, and will impact
the weather across portions of southcentral in the coming days.

A third low is arguably the weakest of the three, but will have
the most consequence over the next 24 hours. This low is currently
moving across southcentral, and is spreading rain across portions
of the area. Elsewhere, a couple thunderstorms persisted well into
the evening, one over the southern copper river basin along the
chugach, and a second associated a line of showers producing an
occasional lightning strike that is moving off the coast of the
kuskokwim delta.

Model discussion
The models remain in very good agreement through Wednesday,
specifically regarding tracking the lows and other waves moving
across the area. As in previous days, the model disagreements and
forecast challenges regard the details of how the weather reacts
to those waves moving across the area. There remains a good deal
of uncertainty as to where any thunderstorms will develop, which
includes, in part, how much sunshine the area ahead of the wave
gets, which directly determines the instability any potential
thunderstorms would feed on.

Aviation
Panc... Rain associated with the passage of an upper level
disturbance will continue over the airport for the next couple
hours. Occasionally gusty winds are also ongoing, though the
drying effect of those winds should help keep ceilings in theVFR
category. Winds will become gustier through much of the day and
into the evening, before diminishing around sunset.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 today
through Tuesday night)...

a potent upper level low and short-wave tracking westward across
the kenai peninsula early this morning will quickly exit to the
kuskokwim valley by this afternoon. Rain and showers associated
with it will diminish through the day, lingering longest across
the kenai peninsula and susitna valley. Surface high pressure will
surge in behind the upper wave (and behind a surface low over the
northwest gulf). Pressure rises will enhance gusty easterly winds
through the usual gaps of the kenai peninsula, anchorage, and the
mat valley. Expect breaks of Sun to develop by this afternoon for
all except possibly the kenai peninsula where the remnant weak
surface low ends up. The copper river basin will see abundant
sunshine along with the warmest temperatures in southcentral.

This morning's wave will be the last in a series of "easterly
waves" to cross southcentral over the past few days as the
pattern begins to shift. Expect generally quiet weather to persist
through Tuesday night. Fairly extensive sunshine on Tuesday will
lead to the warmest temperatures in about a week. The one
exception will be the northern to eastern copper river basin, a
series of upper level waves will track out of the yukon and across
the wrangell mountains and alaska range Tuesday through Tuesday
night. Models always struggle with these, so will have to wait to
see how strong the forcing is. For now have introduced showers for
the areas north and east of glennallen. It could end up being
more of a steady rain. The glennallen area will be on the western
periphery, so should remain warmer and drier.

Short term forecast southwest alaska
A surface low tracking westward across the gulf this morning
pushes a front across the southwest with the highest chances for
rain during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible across the northern areas of the kuskokwim valley and
delta late afternoon and evening as a short wave moves overhead
during peak heating. Showers diminish after midnight as the
boundary quickly weakens. Low pressure over the southern bering
organizes while beginning a northern track Tuesday morning. This
cold core system pushes a front along the west coast late Tuesday
morning which slowly tracks northward through the evening.

Precipitation will mainly be along the coast as the upper low
shears apart as it runs into the ridge along the western bering.

The next front moves up from the north pacific and crosses the
alaska peninsula Wednesday morning. This system slowly tracks
north with the low center nearing kodiak island late day. Easterly
winds are expected to be gusty along the frontal boundary with
gales for marine zones around the alaska peninsula.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians
A surface low and associated front across the western aleutians
progresses eastward today and takes a southward turn late tonight.

Rain and small craft gusty winds are expected with this system
through Tuesday and then a ridge builds along the western bering.

Low pressure persists across the central and eastern bering
through Tuesday as an upper level low, currently south of the
pribilofs, meanders toward the southwest coast. This low
dissipates on Wednesday as a north pacific low organizes and moves
toward the alaska peninsula. This gale force system is expected
to track northeast with the surface low beginning to fill as it
approaches kodiak island by Wednesday afternoon.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
A 980 to 990 mb low will approach the akpen from the north
pacific Wednesday. Expect gales in shelikof strait and south of
kodiak island, in addition to the coastal waters south of the
akpen eastern aleutians as the low approaches. There is also some
potential for a small area of storm force winds as a barrier jet
develops between the low and the akpen. Winds will diminish and
seas will subside Thursday. A weaker low will approach the central
aleutians from the north pacific Thursday into Friday. Winds will
increase, but are expected to stay below warning criteria.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
A series of lows embedded in a longwave trough which spans
from the bering almost into the tropics will push against the
north pacific high stretching into the gulf. The first low in the
long term will approach the akpen from the northern pacific
Wednesday, then likely move into bristol bay bringing increased
winds and precipitation to the southwest mainland, especially to
the greater bristol bay area. The leading front will extend into
the gulf, moving northeastward through the gulf into southcentral
late Wednesday into Thursday. With the position of the ridge and
trough axes in better agreement over the last few model runs,
confidence has increased that precipitation along the gulf coast
will extend into prince william sound and eastward. Uncertainty
remains high on whether precipitation will make it into inland
areas of southcentral, but if nothing else expect increased cloud
cover. Also, winds will ramp up along turnagain arm ahead of the
front.

The next low will approach the central aleutians late Thursday into
Friday. There is some uncertainty with its strength and track, but
the general consensus is that there will be a wetter trend for
southwest Friday into Saturday as the associated front passes
over. Deep southerly fetch ahead of the low will support
precipitation in southcentral over the weekend. It's a bit soon to
say with confidence where the heaviest precipitation will be. The
gfs depicts a slightly quicker progression of the parent trough
axis over the weekend, which would put the heaviest swath of
precipitation farther east than the slower ec, which has a wetter
solution for southwest. In any case, confidence is building that
memorial day weekend will be wet.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Jpw
southcentral alaska... Seb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kh
marine long term... Ja


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CRVA2 - 9454050- Cordova, AK 22 mi124 min ENE 14 G 22 46°F 45°F1008.7 hPa
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK 72 mi118 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 47°F 47°F1008.8 hPa
46061 - Seal Rocks 55NM South of Valdez, AK 77 mi146 min SE 21 G 27 47°F 47°F5 ft1006.8 hPa (+1.5)

Wind History for Cordova, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cordova, Merle K (Mudhole) Smith Airport, AK10 mi23 minESE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F39°F77%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from ACV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS3SE6SE4E4NE53NW4N4CalmCalmCalmSE7E4E84E6E9SE17
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1 day agoNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5E3E3E6E4CalmSE5CalmCalmNE3N3CalmNE4CalmNE4S3NE5NE6
2 days agoNE4CalmE5SE7E6CalmSW74W5W5S4W4W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Pete Dahl Slough, Copper River Delta, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Eyak River entrance, Alaska
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Eyak River entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:51 AM AKDT     12.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:21 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:09 AM AKDT     -2.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:01 PM AKDT     9.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:09 PM AKDT     2.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:30 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.89.711.812.411.79.97.240.8-1.6-2.7-1.90.73.96.99.19.99.58.36.64.632.33

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.