Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cordova, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 9:03AMSunset 4:24PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 11:55 PM AKST (08:55 UTC) Moonrise 2:36PMMoonset 10:25PM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ126 Port Valdez- 1039 Pm Akst Wed Nov 14 2018
Tonight..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri and Fri night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat through Mon..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cordova, AK
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location: 60.38, -145.4     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 150104
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
404 pm akst Wed nov 14 2018

Analysis and upper levels
There is an upper level ridge over the western gulf of alaska
which is amplifying and merging with an upper level high over the
northwest alaska coast. A weak upper level low is in the vicinity
of st matthew island with a trough extending over the eastern
aleutians with another upper level ridge to the west of this
feature over the western aleutians. None of these features are
very strong which is keeping the active weather outside of the
forecast area today.

Model discussion
Models are all seeing the same synoptic features and pattern
through the weekend which is good. However, when comparing the
details of the features with each model, it gives a rather
'sloppy' look. The phasing of a low moving into the gulf on
Saturday with a low moving into bristol bay is detected by all the
models, but there are distinct timing differences which are
important in determining the timing of the warm air moving into
the region and the resulting precipitation type. Overall, the gfs
is being looked upon with the most favor for this time period.

Aviation
Panc... Fog is the big concern through Thursday (and Thursday
night). While it cleared out over the airport early this morning
and did not become widespread after that, there is a good chance
that it will return tonight and persist through tomorrow morning.

This is due to the upper level ridge building in through Thursday
which will help cause more subsidence and therefore a more stable
atmosphere which is conducive for fog and stratus. There is a
chance that it could be more stratus than fog tonight, but limited
ceilings and or visibilities look likely.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
Surface ridging across the southern mainland will keep the region
dry through Thursday. The main challenge tonight is fog
development. A persistence forecast for fog was used for tonight
as the pattern remains unchanged across the mainland. Fog may
linger through late Thursday morning as a more stable air mass
establishes tonight.

The next front pushes across the southern gulf Thursday night
into Friday. Gale force winds and rain are expected to develop
along the boundary which moves across kodiak island early Friday
morning then to the gulf coast during the afternoon. Fog coverage
Friday morning will mainly linger over the copper river basin due
to the ridge losing its hold over the southern mainland.

Precipitation along the front is expected to change over to rain
fairly quickly with this system as a southeasterly low level jet
develops, aiding the warm subtropical air mass to surge inland.

However, northerly flow along the western cook inlet keeps this
area on the cooler side as the front moves across during the
morning which brings chances for mixed precipitation and light
freezing rain through the afternoon. The highest precipitation
amounts are expected along the gulf coast as low level easterly
flow limits accumulations inland.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
Offshore flow continues this evening, and this is keeping the
region dry and largely free from fog. Some low stratus developed
over the lower kusko valley, and that may redevelop again
overnight since it never fully burned off and the upper pattern is
not changing much.

Attention quickly turns to a north pacific warm front moving from
the south on Thursday afternoon and evening. This will bring in
more widespread precipitation with chances for rain, snow, and
freezing rain, depending on location. As is typical with this
pattern, rain is likely near coastal areas in bristol bay and down
wind of the alaska range with snow over interior valleys. Expect a
changeover to rain or a mix of freezing rain by Friday as the
front moves inland but also weakens. On Saturday, another
reinforcing front will move in, bringing in even more warm air
with threats for interior rain mixed rain and snow with potential
isolated areas of freezing rain in prone valleys.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
Widespread northerly flow continues to deliver cold air over much
of the bering. A period of gale force winds will affect the
western aleutians on Thursday as a front associated with a
kamchatka low enters the western bering beginning overnight
tonight. This front quickly loses steam as it stretches out into
the central bering, allowing those gale force winds to diminish
by Fri afternoon. In addition to gale force winds, precipitation
across the western aleutians will begin as snow tonight before
quickly transitioning to rain by Thursday morning.

A second front inbound from the north pacific will lift over the
southern akpen Thursday morning, bringing gusty easterly flow and
a period of gale force winds near the southern coast of the
akpen. In addition, the warm moist air mass associated with this
front will interact with the cooler drier air already in place and
will bring chances of wintry precipitation across the pribilofs
and eastern bering through Friday morning transitioning to all
rain by Saturday morning.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7)
The long-term forecast begins Saturday night with a surface low
weakening east of kodiak island and its associated occluded front
draped along the coast bringing another round of mixed wintry
precipitation to southcentral alaska. A second trough follows on
the heels of the first moving through the gulf and impacting the
southcentral coast Sunday. Yet another trough slides across the
gulf on Monday, with the GFS bringing it closer to southcentral
while the ec slides the system farther east toward the alaska
panhandle. All of this is in response to an upper-level trough
situated along the western alaska coast ejecting a series of
shortwaves through the gulf as it slowly moves across the mainland
over the weekend. Confidence remains above average that
conditions will remain wet and unsettled across southern alaska
through the weekend while under the influence of the long-wave
trough. There is less confidence, however, in the timing of the
mid-level shortwaves and associated surface features (and hence
precipitation and wind along the coast) as the GFS and ec continue
to disagree in their exact track through the gulf.

Guidance then GOES completely off the rails moving into early next
week with very low confidence in any solution overall. The main
issue is with the upper-level solutions between the GFS and ec,
specifically with the development of an upper-level low over
eastern russia and a shortwave tracking across the aleutians. The
ec is much faster in moving the aleutian shortwave east and while
suppressing the ridge over the the central and eastern bering as
it tracks well south of the akpen and shears apart by Tuesday in
conjunction with the trailing upper level low now in the bering.

The GFS keeps the eastern russia low in place on Monday allowing
the aleutian shortwave to intensify and move quickly into the
bering while pushing an amplified ridge over southwest alaska. The
shortwave then reaches the west coast by late Monday. A secondary
low then develops south of the akpen and moves into the gulf for
mid-week.

The GFS has had the better run to run consistency of the suite of
long-term guidance and is favored over the ec. This would keep
wet weather over the southern mainland through the weekend with a
brief drying trend late Sunday through late Monday across the
southwest and Monday through late Tuesday across southcentral
(especially the interior) before more wet weather returns.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 130>132 138 150 177 178.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ez
southcentral alaska... Kh
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ja ko
long term... Tm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CRVA2 - 9454050- Cordova, AK 22 mi37 min Calm G 0 36°F 44°F1013.6 hPa
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK 72 mi37 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 35°F 44°F1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Cordova, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cordova, Merle K (Mudhole) Smith Airport, AK10 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair27°F26°F96%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from ACV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmNW3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE14
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E9E6E3NE5E5SE9CalmCalmE6CalmN3N4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Pete Dahl Slough, Copper River Delta, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Eyak River entrance, Alaska
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Eyak River entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:04 AM AKST     2.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM AKST     First Quarter
Thu -- 07:36 AM AKST     8.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:44 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:33 PM AKST     6.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:55 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:09 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:54 PM AKST     7.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:41 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.52.945.26.47.488.17.97.56.96.46.16.16.477.47.77.97.67.16.25.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.