Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tatitlek, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 9:37AMSunset 4:45PM Monday January 22, 2018 7:12 AM AKST (16:12 UTC) Moonrise 11:20AMMoonset 11:44PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ128 Valdez Arm- 328 Am Akst Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory today and Tuesday...
Today..NE wind 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, diminishing to 20 kt late this afternoon. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
Tonight..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue..NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed through Fri..NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tatitlek, AK
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location: 60.9, -146.7     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 221241
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
341 am akst Mon jan 22 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The longwave trough over mainland alaska and the gulf has evolved
somewhat over the past 24 hours and is now anchored by two
distinct low centers, one over the north slope and another over
the far southern gulf. Southcentral ak is currently under the
influence of weak cyclonic flow between these two features,
yielding mostly cloudy skies and isolated to scattered snow
showers. These showers are a little more prevalent along the gulf
coast owing to a disturbance transiting the northern gulf.

Meanwhile, mostly clear skies prevail across the southwest
mainland in brisk northerly flow between the longwave trough and a
stout, persistent ridge over the bering sea. Gusty winds aided by
a meridional jet streak moving down the western periphery of the
trough are contributing to very low wind chill values,
particularly through the kuskokwim delta where a wind chill
advisory is posted through this morning. The cold northerly flow
is also initiating widespread convective snow shower activity
along the north side of the alaska peninsula and eastern
aleutians, with more benign conditions prevailing across the rest
of the bering beneath the ridge.

Model discussion
Models continue to show good synoptic agreement in the short term
as the longwave trough pivots and takes on a little more of a
negative tilt, eventually swinging the trough axis through the
cook inlet region by Tuesday. There is still some minor
disagreement on the numerous smaller scale features rotating
through the gulf in this timeframe, but there is a general
consensus on the potential snowfall developing from the mat-su
through anchorage and the kenai peninsula late this afternoon
through Tuesday morning. Largely stayed the course with the
inherited forecast for the morning package given good run to run
consistency.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light north winds will persist through
this afternoon. Snow will begin to spread into the terminal by
late afternoon (around 02z), with ceilings lowering to around 5000
ft. Snow will increase in intensity by late evening and persist
through Tuesday morning as MVFR conditions develop after 08z.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The two main forecast impacts through Tuesday are outflow winds
over the western gulf and snow potential from the western kenai
peninsula across the anchorage bowl to over the mat-su valleys.

Strong pressure and thermal gradients will continue along the
aleutian range. As a result, strong gap flows with gales to storm
gusts are expected to continue across the western gulf marine
areas through Tuesday night. Gap flows across prince william sound
however should diminish today through Tuesday, but could see an
increase again late Tuesday night as pressure gradients start to
build again with cold advection.

Scattered showers are expected across many gulf areas, cook inlet,
anchorage bowl and susitna valley today. Things get a little more
interesting this evening and Tuesday as a long wave upper trough
sets up just west of southcentral. While this occurs a fairly
defined wave moves west across the gulf and feeds low level
moisture west of the chugach. This results in a broad deformation
zone from the kenai peninsula to the mat-su valleys this evening
which will provide for steady snowfall. Snow will likely continue
fairly steady into Tuesday afternoon before tapering off to
flurries or snow showers Tuesday night. At this time we are
thinking sub-advisory snowfall, but this setup bears watching for
any additional clues for changes in intensity and duration of
snowfall.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
With mostly clear conditions and arctic air continuing to filter
in over the southwest mainland, temperatures will continue to drop
as winds continue to increase during the overnight hours through
this morning. The models are still not in great agreement with
regards to how low the wind chill values will reach today, which
has caused some uncertainty in the forecast. However, based on
observations during the overnight and early morning period, some
observations around the kuskokwim delta are approaching wind chill
values of -25 f to -35 f. Thus, the wind chill advisory remains
in effect through noon today as temperatures are expected to
continue dropping this morning. Further upstream into the
kuskokwim valley, temperatures will remain much colder than the
surrounding bristol bay and kuskokwim delta regions. However, wind
speeds are struggling to reach 15 mph in the valley, keeping wind
chill values above advisory criteria.

Otherwise, a persistent area of high pressure across the bering
will continue to funnel colder air into the area in an offshore
flow regime, with no sensible change in the pattern seen through
the next few days.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
An area of high pressure will remain anchored across central
portions of the bering sea aleutians over the next few days. This
creates a rather stagnant pattern with a decaying stalled front
across western portions of the chain and bering, and cold showery
conditions over eastern portions of the aleutians and bering. This
will bring continued freezing spray concerns to these eastern
areas through the period. Another front will clip the western
aleutians and bering Wednesday, but meet the same fate as its
predecessor, being blocked by the bering ridge and not making much
eastward progression past shemya.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Beginning the extended period forecast Tuesday night, there will
be a rather potent cold upper level vortex over the northwest part
of alaska with associated troughing extending into the gulf of
alaska. Low level cyclonic flow will preferentially wrap around
the alaska range into the bering sea. Snow showers over parts of
southcentral will quickly be ending overnight (although they may
linger longer over the copper basin) as strong offshore flow
increases in response to cold air advection. Temperatures will
continue to drop across all of southern alaska as 850 temperatures
plummet to -20 to -30c on Thursday as the upper vortex moves south
across the region. As the upper low digs into the north pacific,
secondary cyclogenesis will develop in the gulf with increasing
chances of coastal precipitation (in the form of snow) Thursday
into Saturday. Some locations such as kodiak island may see the
potential for good accumulations should the setup develop as
current global models depict... Stay tuned.

Otherwise, the pattern looks to remain dominated by the eventual
large trough over the north pacific into the gulf of alaska, along
with high latitude blocking over eastern siberia, for the
remainder of the weekend into early next week. This will likely
result in dry and continued colder than average inland weather as
the general storm track remains south of the forecast area.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Wind chill advisory 155
marine... Gale warning 127 130 131 138 150 155 165 172 180
heavy freezing spray 130 131 138 139 160 165 180 414
synopsis and model discussion... Cb
aviation... Cb
southcentral alaska... Rmc
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Tp
long term... Ahsenmacher


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
POTA2 - Potato Point, AK 11 mi42 min NNE 36 G 38 24°F 1000 hPa
BLIA2 - Bligh Reef Light, AK 11 mi42 min NNE 27 G 29 30°F 998.1 hPa
MRKA2 - Middle Rock Light, AK 13 mi42 min NE 17 G 20 23°F 1002.2 hPa
46060 - West Orca Bay 36NM South Southwest of Valdez, AK 23 mi82 min N 5.8 G 7.8 37°F 41°F3 ft998 hPa (+0.7)
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK 24 mi42 min ENE 6 G 11 19°F 41°F1002.3 hPa
46061 - Seal Rocks 55NM South of Valdez, AK 47 mi82 min E 16 G 19 39°F 41°F3 ft997 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Valdez, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdez 2, AK29 mi16 minN 310.00 miA Few Clouds12°F7°F80%1004.7 hPa

Wind History from AVD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE733E9
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E8E75E5E7E6CalmE44CalmE3E5CalmE3CalmN3
1 day agoE95E9
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6E4E6CalmE3SE9CalmCalmCalmW54Calm5SE9SE9
G20
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2 days agoE3NE4E3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3CalmCalmE5E3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmE4E5CalmE3E8E6

Tide / Current Tables for Ellamar, Tatitlek Narrows, Valdez Arm, Alaska
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Ellamar
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:03 AM AKST     11.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:27 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:01 AM AKST     3.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:19 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:37 PM AKST     10.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:14 PM AKST     1.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:43 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
46.7910.51110.69.47.55.43.73.13.75.47.59.310.310.59.78.26.23.921.11.4

Tide / Current Tables for Landlocked Bay, Port Fidalgo, Prince William Sound, Alaska
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Landlocked Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:23 AM AKST     11.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:26 AM AKST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:26 AM AKST     3.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:18 AM AKST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:00 PM AKST     10.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM AKST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:40 PM AKST     1.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:43 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.15.78.210.110.910.89.88.16.14.33.23.34.76.88.71010.4108.86.94.72.71.31.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.