Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tatitlek, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 8:35PM Sunday March 26, 2017 3:03 AM AKDT (11:03 UTC) Moonrise 6:30AMMoonset 5:33PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ128 Valdez Arm- 330 Pm Akdt Sat Mar 25 2017
Tonight..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun and Sun night..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon night..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Wed through Thu..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tatitlek, AK
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location: 60.9, -146.7     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 260115
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
515 pm akdt Sat mar 25 2017

Analysis and upper levels
At the surface the dominant high pressure remains over the
northern bering sea extending across interior alaska. A strong low
and the associated gale force front extends along the aleutians
to south of the alaska peninsula. An inverted trough extends from
the low over the panhandle to the north gulf coast. Aloft we
remain under the omega block as we have an upper low south of the
western aleutians with the upper ridge extending from the north
pacific across the western alaska peninsula into the bering sea
and the upper trough that extends from the arctic low across the
mainland into the gulf of alaska.

The east flow along the north gulf coast is rotating showers
along the coast. Off shore flow and dry conditions persist across
south central alaska to southwest alaska. The stalled front along
the aleutians is holding the gale force winds across the region
while keeping temperatures warm enough to keep the precipitation
liquid west of unalaska.

Model discussion
The models remain in generally good agreement in the short term
but continue to struggle with the placement of the low and
westward extend of the precipitation Monday night and Tuesday. We
have high confidence that snow will spread across prince william
sound beginning Sunday night, however, the models have been
limiting the westward extent of the precip area each successive
run for the past couple of days, thus lowering our confidence in
snow on the cook inlet side of the kenai peninsula.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The southcentral alaska region remains under the influence of
an upper level trough. This synoptic feature will gradually swing
through the region, and is reflected at the surface with a weak
low pressure system in the northern gulf. Therefore, look for a
showery regime with precipitation mainly along the northern gulf
coastal communities. By Monday the aforementioned low pressure
system will have dissipated, but a 993 mb low in the lower
southeastern gulf will start to track to the northern gulf. By
Monday evening, the models have this system tracking onshore near
seward. This feature bring snow showers to the eastern kenai
peninsula, and the prince william sound region. Look for the
anchorage bowl to have a chance for snowfall to spill- over the
chugach mountains into the bowl.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Much of the same is in store for the mainland for the next couple
days. The only real change in the overall pattern comes on Monday
morning when the bering sea blocking high retreats enough to allow
the upper trough back over the area, bringing some slightly colder
air with it. From a sensible weather perspective, not much will
change. Dry and clear conditions will continue with generally
light northerly winds. Expect some stronger winds and gusts during
the daylight hours. Temperatures will remain below normal,
especially at night as the clear sky promotes much cooler
temperatures, mainly in protected valleys.

Short term forecast bering sea/aleutians (days 1 and 2)
A decaying frontal boundary will remain in place for the next two
days. Light rain can be expected from shemya through atka as
easterly winds begin to relax. A new low pressure system will
bring a gale-force front south of the central aleutians Sunday
afternoon. Currently it doesn't look like the front will spread
over the chain. Otherwise general moderate easterly to
northeasterly can be expected over the bering sea.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Little change to the longer range forecast for most of the region.

By the day three timeframe, guidance is still in agreement that a
surface low will spin into the gulf as an upper level wave rides
south from the interior. Coastal locations will see precipitation,
but the question remains on the anchorage area and how good of a
chance there will be for snow in the area. As each day passes
confidence increases and there is a decent chance that the
anchorage will see some snowfall into Tuesday.

At this time, confidence remains too low to go any higher than a
chance of snow or to think about totals. The bottom line is that
the pattern is changing. The longwave pattern undergoes a bit of a
shift following this early week system and will set us up to be
in a little bit of a favorable patter to see systems beyond the
forecast timeframe reaching all of south central.

Afc watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale 155 172-175 178.

Heavy freezing spray 139 179 185.

Synopsis and model discussion... Sa
southcentral alaska... Pd
southwest alaska/bering sea/aleutians... Mtl
long term... Ss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
POTA2 - Potato Point, AK 11 mi33 min NE 16 G 19 1005.4 hPa
BLIA2 - Bligh Reef Light, AK 11 mi33 min NNE 21 G 23 32°F 1004.2 hPa
MRKA2 - Middle Rock Light, AK 13 mi33 min NE 11 G 13 29°F 1006.6 hPa
46060 - West Orca Bay 36NM South Southwest of Valdez, AK 23 mi73 min N 5.8 G 7.8 33°F 40°F2 ft1004.2 hPa (+0.6)
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK 24 mi45 min NE 7 G 12 25°F 41°F1006.5 hPa
46061 - Seal Rocks 55NM South of Valdez, AK 47 mi73 min NE 9.7 G 12 33°F 3 ft

Wind History for Valdez, AK
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E14
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NE7
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdez 2, AK29 mi67 minESE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy25°F12°F59%1006.1 hPa

Wind History from AVD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S5SE10SE6SE9
G14
SE8
G16
E4SE5E3NE4E3E4SE4NE3Calm
1 day agoCalmE4CalmN5NE5NW3CalmNE6
G18
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G29
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NW3CalmS3W4CalmCalm
2 days agoE9
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G14
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E8CalmCalmCalmSE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Ellamar, Tatitlek Narrows, Valdez Arm, Alaska
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Ellamar
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Sun -- 12:38 AM AKDT     11.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:33 AM AKDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:27 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:30 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:36 PM AKDT     12.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:32 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:56 PM AKDT     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:18 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1111.210.28.15.531.51.42.85.38.110.511.91210.88.55.42.3-0-0.80.22.75.98.9

Tide / Current Tables for Landlocked Bay, Port Fidalgo, Prince William Sound, Alaska
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Landlocked Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:58 AM AKDT     11.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:53 AM AKDT     1.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:27 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:29 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:56 PM AKDT     12.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:32 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:16 PM AKDT     -1.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:17 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.611.210.68.96.43.81.81.22.14.37.19.711.512.111.49.46.53.30.5-0.9-0.51.64.67.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.