Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tatitlek, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 9:59PM Thursday April 27, 2017 8:45 AM AKDT (16:45 UTC) Moonrise 6:09AMMoonset 10:34PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ128 Valdez Arm- 330 Am Akdt Thu Apr 27 2017
Today..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Fri night through Sat..NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun through Mon..NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tatitlek, AK
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location: 60.9, -146.7     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 271212
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
412 am akdt Thu apr 27 2017

Analysis and upper levels
Weak southeasterly flow in the upper levels continues across
nearly all of southern alaska this morning. The moisture and upper
level waves embedded in the flow originate from a low over the
southeastern gulf. As those waves move along and interact with the
moisture and instability already present across southcentral,
showers have been intermittently forming along the mountains. The
anchorage sounding yesterday afternoon shows light and variable
flow throughout the lower atmosphere, so downsloping is not an
issue. Where the showers have been forming, they remain stationary
or drift.

Due to the instability and drying of the lower levels, there was
quite a bit more sunshine across southcentral yesterday than the
day before. As a result the shower activity was much more
prevalent in the afternoon. The showers formed during the
mid-afternoon along knik and turnagain arms from a weak sea
breeze that pushed in, then the mountains helped lift some of the
showers as the northwest winds encountered the foot of the
chugach. After initial shower development, subsequent shower
activity favored the east side of town along the mountains before
diminishing. Towards sunset, shower activity re-emerged along the
mountains and east anchorage, though not to near the intensity of
their counterparts from earlier in the day. These showers were
better able to spread westward, with traces of precipitation
reported from them at both merrill field and anchorage
international. Shower activity was also present along the kenai
mountains, and numerous over much of the susitna valley as well
yesterday afternoon.

Shower activity also blossomed across southwest alaska, namely
along the kilbucks east of bethel, which then moved into bethel
later in the afternoon. While it was associated with a different
wave, the processes that led to shower formation were largely the
same, with more sunshine and greater instability also present
through that area during the day yesterday. Bristol bay also saw a
few showers, but were not nearly as plentiful due to a lack of
forcing. A very similar song and dance to the past week's weather
played out across the bering yet again yesterday as the
persistent stacked low continued to weaken, but still was
responsible for plentiful cloud cover and intermittent rain for
the aleutians.

Model discussion
The models all remain in very good agreement on the synoptic
scale features, or lack thereof for some areas, affecting southern
alaska over the next couple days. The NAM was the model of choice
as the GFS was an outlier on some of the details of a front
moving into the gulf Friday night, and the NAM was closer to many
of the ensembles and the non-american models. Out west most of the
models were in great agreement following the timing of the next
front to move into the western aleutians later today, and push
into the central bering by Friday night. Regarding those large
scale features, forecast confidence is high.

The primary forecast challenge in this pattern will be the
strength and extent of afternoon shower activity expected once
again over southcentral and southwest alaska. As all the models
forecast strengthening ridging along the canadian border today,
the broad upper level flow should return to a dominant southerly
direction, which may impact the level of instability and in turn,
shower coverage during the day today.

Aviation
Panc... Remains underVFR conditions through Friday. There will be
showers over the mountains, and look for the winds to shift to
southerly flow with gusty conditions by late this evening.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Today should be a repeat of yesterday with scattered rain showers
around the area and mostly cloudy skies. The air mass and upper
level flow pattern is essentially remaining unchanged from
yesterday, which makes a persistence forecast the best forecast.

The trend is your friend and all that.

Yesterday afternoon's radiosonde showed about 150 j/kg of cape,
more than any model was showing. Given the unchanging nature of
atmosphere, 500-700mb temperatures progged to remain the same, as
well as surface temperatures, another round of convective showers
is in store. The main difference would be a shortwave progged to
move inland tomorrow evening/overnight. The timing of said
shortwave would keep showers going later into the overnight hours
instead of waning in the evening.

Coastal ridging returns late tonight which should bring rise to
some weak gap winds Friday into Saturday. Late Friday a low
develops in the western gulf, ramping up cross-barrier flow once
again which should hamper any convective showers.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Scattered rain showers will remain in the forecast through
Saturday for parts of the southwest mainland. Colder air aloft
has filtered in across the region which has aided in creating a
conditionally unstable air mass, along with multiple weak waves
and moist southerly flow continuously tracking over the area from
the pacific. Scattered to widespread rain showers will be
possible through Saturday, especially near the mountains, but
thunderstorm potential continues to look rather unlikely with not
enough instability or forcing available.

Portions of the kuskokwim delta, mainly from bethel westward,
will see patchy fog develop again early this morning. Some
locations could see visibilities as low as one half of a mile at
times again today, but the nature of radiation fog makes it very
difficult to pinpoint where exactly the fog will be the thickest.

The rest of the week will see clearing skies which will allow
temperatures to warm a few degrees warmer than previous days.

Short term forecast bering sea/aleutians (days 1 and 2)
Isolated to scattered rain showers will continue across much of
the bering sea through tonight, with an upper level low near the
central aleutians slowly meandering eastward. Fog near the
pribilof islands should re-develop under a rather unstable air
mass this morning, but should finally mix out by this afternoon.

All eyes then turn to a frontal boundary pushing through the
western half of the bering sea later today and into Friday. This
should help bring back a nice swath of gale force winds along the
frontal boundary with periods of light to moderate rainfall. This
front will move to the alaska peninsula by late Friday night into
Saturday morning, but will have weakened substantially by the
time it makes it that far east.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long-term forecast looks like a continuation of the rather
cloudy pattern that has spread across much of mainland alaska. The
main feature for the weekend and into mid next week is a low that
will be tracking through the bering over the weekend and then move
across the alaska peninsula and eventually into the gulf of alaska
next week. There is good model agreement with this system through
the weekend giving higher confidence for showers across the
southern mainland and around the bering for much of the long term.

Early next week areas along the north gulf coast look to see more
steady rain as the low moves towards the gulf.

Afc watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning... 177 178 411.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Jw
southcentral alaska... Ml
southwest alaska/bering sea/aleutians... Tp
long term... Dk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
POTA2 - Potato Point, AK 11 mi45 min 1005 hPa (+1.5)
BLIA2 - Bligh Reef Light, AK 11 mi45 min ESE 1 G 1.9 43°F 1005 hPa (+1.5)
MRKA2 - Middle Rock Light, AK 13 mi45 min SW 1 G 1.9 41°F 1005.4 hPa (+1.6)
46060 - West Orca Bay 36NM South Southwest of Valdez, AK 23 mi55 min S 5.8 G 5.8 42°F 44°F1 ft1005.3 hPa (+1.9)
VDZA2 - 9454240 - Valdez, AK 24 mi45 min Calm G 1.9 41°F 48°F1005.2 hPa
46061 - Seal Rocks 55NM South of Valdez, AK 47 mi55 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 43°F 2 ft

Wind History for Valdez, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valdez 2, AK29 mi49 minN 010.00 miOvercast41°F37°F87%1005.1 hPa

Wind History from AVD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSW4W5SW7SW6SW9SW9SW5W4W3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmSW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W5W7W9W10W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Ellamar, Tatitlek Narrows, Valdez Arm, Alaska
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Ellamar
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Thu -- 01:47 AM AKDT     14.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:10 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:17 AM AKDT     -3.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:38 PM AKDT     12.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM AKDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:40 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:33 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.613.614.112.910.26.32.2-1.2-3-2.5-0.13.57.210.211.912.110.88.35.12.20.50.72.86.1

Tide / Current Tables for Landlocked Bay, Port Fidalgo, Prince William Sound, Alaska
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Landlocked Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:10 AM AKDT     14.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:49 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:09 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:37 AM AKDT     -3.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:58 PM AKDT     12.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:46 PM AKDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:39 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:32 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.312.91413.511.37.73.6-0.2-2.7-3-1.12.15.99.111.312.111.39.16.130.70.11.64.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
cpac_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Middleton Is., AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.