Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 3:11 PM   Moonset 5:15 AM

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FXUS63 KFGF 192327 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 627 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous snow showers this evening, mainly along and east of the Red River. Brief reductions to below 1 mile visibility at times.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Water vapor loop continues to show several vorts rotating around the upper low over Ontario, with one moving through northwestern MN currently and likely helping with our current round of snow showers in that area. Another weak shortwave/vort max is still upstream in southern Manitoba. With continued forcing and some weak instability, see little reason for the snow shower activity to go away anytime before sunset. Snow squall parameter is pretty high during the 21Z time period according to some model solutions, although most of our activity has all been cellular in nature so far so will continue to handle the impacts with SPS. Snow shower activity should taper off quickly between 03 and 06Z as we lose the weak instability and the weak shortwave moves further down into the Plains.

Saturday should see some diminishing winds as surface high pressure builds in and upper ridging brings a slight warming trend. Warming will continue into Sunday and afternoon RH values in a few spots in northwestern MN could get close to 25 percent, which could cause fire weather issues in the drought stricken portions of that state. However, Winds will be out of the west at around 10 mph and are not expected to cause problems.

An upper trough coming out into the Northern Plains on Monday and then pushing into the Great Lakes on Tuesday is expected to bring some light precipitation to most of the region for the first part of the work week. This time temperature profiles look to be staying favorable for rain. R and M climate percentiles do not show a particularly strong wet signal, and probabilities for more than a quarter of an inch of rain are less than 10 percent. After a bit of a break Wednesday and Thursday, there are signs of another system for late week but predictability is even lower for that system.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Categories will vary greatly through much of the TAF period in response to continued scattered snow shower activity. CIGs are generally in the MVFR category for the most part, with occasional VFR during cloud breaks and IFR during snow showers.
Visibility has been as low as 1/4 mile very briefly; however, most visibility reductions should be in the 2 to 4 SM range during brief periods of heavier snow. Look for coverage to diminish as temperatures cool this evening and convection becomes more isolated. Look for improved conditions heading into Saturday, with VFR conditions expected across much of the area by mid morning.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.

Jack Bay
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Fri -- 02:15 AM AKDT     Moonset
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