Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hope, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:09AMSunset 6:16PM Saturday February 24, 2018 6:31 PM AKST (03:31 UTC) Moonrise 11:47AMMoonset 4:41AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 341 Pm Akst Sat Feb 24 2018
.small craft advisory through Sunday...
Tonight..W wind increasing to 30 kt. Gusts to 55 kt near whittier. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
Sun..W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 40 kt near whittier in the morning. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
Sun night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
Mon..Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue..W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed..W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hope, AK
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location: 61.15, -149.76     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 250125
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
425 pm akst Sat feb 24 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The upper level short-wave and associated surface low which
brought another round of light snow to most of southcentral
last night through this morning is exiting eastward across the
gulf. Cold air advection is leading to strengthening gap winds
along the gulf coast. Winds are particularly strong across the
western gulf kodiak island thanks to steep low level lapse rates
(7 to 8 degrees c km on the 12z kodiak sounding), with stronger
winds mixing down from aloft. This unstable airmass extends back
westward into the eastern bering sea, bristol bay, and along the
alaska peninsula, where gusty winds and snow showers prevail.

Weak troughing persists across the rest of southwest alaska,
with a few lingering showers.

The next in a series of progressive storm systems is approaching
the aleutians. A leading warm front is leading to quickly warming
low level temperatures, with rain overspreading the western and
central aleutians.

Model discussion
Models remain in good agreement and forecast confidence is
generally high over the next couple days.

Aviation
Panc... In the wake of today's snow, there may be some localized
areas of fog or stratus (ifr conditions) in the vicinity of the
terminal. However, with increasing low level flow this evening it
does not look favorable for anything widespread or long-lived to
develop. Thus, have trended towardVFR conditions this evening.

The low level winds will weaken by Sunday morning, so will have
to watch for fog formation if we begin to cool down under clear
skies. For now, that is a low probability possibility and have
stuck withVFR conditions through Sunday afternoon.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A drying trend will continue overnight as leftover snow flurries
and showers come to an end. This will be in response to increasing
weak cold air advection and dry northwesterly offshore flow. A
strong upper jet will also continue to support strong westerly
offshore through southern cook inlet into homer and kodiak island.

Sunday will be dry and quiet with attention quickly turning to
another low which will move into cook inlet from the west. This
will bring another shot of snow to southcentral Sunday night
through Monday night. Currently, this snow event is looking to be
a more typical distribution which will favor the west facing
slopes of all the high mountain ranges. With rather high snow
ratios and favorable dynamics, this snow event may reach close to
advisory level snow amounts (although over a 24 hour period) for
some locations from anchorage north to the matanuska valley. Snow
will quickly taper off Monday night, lingering longest near the
mountains.

.Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2: Sunday and
Monday)...

quiet weather is returning to southwest alaska for another brief
time between systems as weak high pressure moves over the area.

With onshore flow over portions of bristol bay, especially from
king salmon south and through the kuskokwim delta, patchy dense
fog is possible in some areas tonight. Then on Sunday, the next
system moves into southwest alaska, as a portion occluded front to
the north, and warm front to the south, with the parent low
remaining over the bering. This will bring yet another round of a
few inches of snow to all of southwest alaska overnight Sunday
night. For the upslope mountains, which will be the west sides of
the kuskokwim and alaska ranges, amounts closer to a foot are
expected with this latest round of snow. Colder air moves in on
increasingly strong west to northwest flow during the day Monday,
resulting in an anti-diurnal temperature trend with the high
temperatures for the day expected early in the morning, then
falling throughout the day into Monday night. Because of the
strong northwest flow, snow showers will continue in the mountains
through much of the day, potentially continuing through much of
Monday night, since the flow off the bering is expected to be
well-modified with moisture.

.Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2: Sunday
and Monday)...

a strong area of low pressure is moving into the western
aleutians this afternoon. It is bringing another round of warm air
east of the low's center. The most hazardous weather associated
with the low will be after the center passes and the colder south
and west side of the low moves into the area. Very strong winds on
cold advection are expected tonight across the western and
central aleutians. Fortunately, the low itself is not expected to
get very strong, only getting to about 980 mb at it's strongest
point during the day Sunday. Thus, only occasional gusts to
hurricane force are expected along the aleutians late tonight into
Sunday, though sustained winds to storm force (50 kt) will be
more widespread. The low will track generally eastward into the
kuskokwim delta Sunday night. With dynamic fetch (waves moving in
the same direction as the storm's center for a long period of
time) expected on the south side of the low with the stronger
winds, look for seas exceeding 30 feet between the aleutians and
the pribilofs into Sunday night.

Once the low moves into southwest alaska, conditions will calm
down somewhat, with a much weaker low moving into the western
aleutians late Sunday night into Monday morning. This weak low
will slowly track eastward through the central bering through
Monday night, but no hazardous weather is expected from it.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The progressive pattern with zonal westerly flow will continue
Monday night into Tuesday with a couple more cold troughs tracking
across southern alaska. West to northwesterly outflow will
increase across southcentral alaska and the western gulf Monday
night following the passage of one trough. The next trough,
bringing additional cold air aloft with it, will swing into
southwest alaska Monday night and continue into southcentral and
the gulf Tuesday with another small shortwave following through
the northwesterly flow aloft late Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning.

Further out to the west, a rapidly deepening north pacific low
will track north towards the western aleutians on Tuesday and
then cross into the western bering Tuesday night and Wednesday.

With the low still strengthening as it passes not far to the west
of shemya, storm force or stronger winds are likely. In response
to the deepening storm, a strong upper level ridge will build over
the central bering Tuesday and then continue to amplify as it
shifts east over the eastern bering Tuesday night and west coast
of alaska Wednesday.

Forecast confidence decreases rapidly Friday through the weekend
due to uncertainty in how fast the large ridge will push east and
in what manner it will break down. Models, however, do agree on
general trend back towards active zonal flow for the first half of
next week.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Storm warning 130 131 136 137 165 170 173 175 177 178.

Gale warning 120 132 138 139 141 150 155 160 171 172 174 176 179
180 185.

Heavy freezing spray 181.

Synopsis and model discussion... Sb
southcentral alaska... Ja
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Jw
long term... Jr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 9 mi50 min N 8 G 9.9 23°F 1003.2 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 73 mi44 min 40°F
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 83 mi42 min W 27 G 35 32°F 42°F3 ft997.8 hPa (+0.4)22°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK6 mi39 minN 310.00 miMostly Cloudy23°F18°F81%1003.1 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK8 mi96 minN 510.00 miMostly Cloudy23°F19°F85%1002.2 hPa
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK11 mi39 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast22°F17°F82%1003.4 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK13 mi39 minNNE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy23°F16°F74%1003.1 hPa
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK23 mi36 minENE 410.00 miOvercast21°F16°F81%1004.4 hPa

Wind History from AMR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4CalmN4N4N5NE43N5N5N5N7N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmN3NE4N5N3
1 day agoS5SW5SW4CalmCalmSE3NE6NE8NE7NE6NE5NE6NE8NE5NE4NE4NE4NE5N6N6N4N4N4N5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5N3N3E3CalmN3NW5CalmCalmW5S3SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:38 AM AKST     24.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:42 AM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:56 AM AKST     8.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:14 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:46 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:21 PM AKST     26.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:11 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:58 PM AKST     3.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2224.124.422.318.614.411.19.28.410.315.921.925.326.626.323.919.815.210.97.64.73.15.511.2

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:03 AM AKST     25.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:42 AM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:45 AM AKST     9.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:14 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:46 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:12 PM AKST     27.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:11 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:33 PM AKST     4.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
23.625.124.121.818.815.612.5109.411.415.921.325.827.72724.320.516.211.67.44.64.47.412.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.