Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hope, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 9:11AMSunset 4:18PM Saturday November 17, 2018 3:22 PM AKST (00:22 UTC) Moonrise 3:40PMMoonset 1:12AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 300 Pm Akst Sat Nov 17 2018
Tonight..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Sun..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Sun night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Mon..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hope, AK
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location: 61.15, -149.76     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 171401
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
501 am akst Sat nov 17 2018

Analysis and upper levels
Upper levels show ridging continuing to push east over the alcan
border, while a low sits in the northern bering. Showery
conditions, mostly rain, are still occurring out west along the
chain and southwest as a surface low makes its way eastward.

For southcentral, widespread precipitation was observed overnight
and continues along the north gulf coast associated with the
front moving across the gulf. Radar imagery shows precipitation
pushing over the coastal areas, the kenai peninsula, and into the
anchorage bowl. Rainfall was the main p-type observed from kodiak
to cordova, with the exception being valdez and gulkana, which
continues to see snow. The copper river basin will be the main
concern this morning with the winter weather advisory issued for
mixed precipitation with snow changing over to freezing rain this
morning.

Model discussion
Based on satellite imagery and METAR data, the models initialized
fairly well. The one caveat being the precipitation over the
kenai peninsula which the NAM and GFS did not have. There is
decent consensus with the synoptic pattern for 36 hrs. However,
there are some pesky timing issues with the precipitation shield
and the p-type. Past 36 hrs, the the models diverge significantly
at both the surface and 500 mb. The divergence in the guidance is
not limited to the bering, its also very glaring over the gulf of
alaska.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 today
through Sunday night)...

a strong negatively tilted upper level trough over the northern
gulf will lift northward across eastern prince william sound this
morning and the copper river basin this afternoon, with rain along
the coast and mostly snow inland. A winter weather advisory for
snow and freezing rain remains in effect until noon for the
copper river basin from glennallen southward. However, the extent
of warming aloft does not look as significant as previous model
runs indicated. Thus, have backed off freezing rain this morning,
confining it to the southeastern basin, from about chitina to
mccarthy. Areas north of glennallen will see snow as well, but
expect very little accumulation. Warming aloft will continue
northward this afternoon through tonight, but the heart of the
basin will dry out.

Meanwhile, a weaker short-wave trough back over cook inlet and the
kenai peninsula will lift northward early this morning, producing
a brief period of light precipitation. While temperatures on the
kenai are all above freezing, much of anchorage and the mat-su
remain below freezing. Thus, could see some light freezing rain
or sprinkles. Based on short duration and light intensity do not
expect any significant icing or impacts from this.

As we head through the next couple days, a series of short-wave
troughs will traverse southcentral as a high amplitude long-wave
trough moves in from the bering sea. Forecast confidence remains
low as models continue to struggle with the details of each
feature moving through the upper level trough. There are also
major differences on the track and strength of a surface low
moving up from the northeast pacific Sunday through Sunday night.

So what can we say with confidence about the forecast? Coastal
areas will remain wet no matter which solution pans out. Surface
temperatures will be on a steady rise across the region today
through tonight. This means that wherever precipitation does
fall, it will be primarily in the form of rain. The only areas
which look to remain cold enough for all snow are the far northern
susitna valley and copper river basin (near the alaska range).

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
(today through Sunday)
the weather will remain active through tomorrow, with wintry type
precipitation and amounts being the main forecast challenge. A
trio of low pressure systems to our west and southwest continues
to funnel warm moist air into the region this morning, and these
lows will consolidate into a single low moving northward through
the akpen into bristol bay by this evening. This system will swing
a warm front northward reaching the nushagak hills shortly after
sunset. This will let some of the cold air at the surface remain
entrenched in the valleys to the north of these hills and east of
the kilbuck mountains through Sunday morning. Additional vort
maxes crossing the area aloft will provide bursts of ascent which
will periodically aid in precipitation efficiency as well, with
some of the latest numerical data suggesting a few inches of snow
along with up to two tenths of an inch of ice are likely in the
valleys for this area.

Further south and west, precipitation will be in the form of rain,
except for some locations near north of the kuskokwim river across
the delta, where temperatures will be marginally sufficient for a
wintry mix or periods of freezing rain to persist through the
evening. However, temporal and area coverage of this threat is low
enough to preclude any headline issuance. Look for periods of
precipitation to continue through Sunday in this active weather
pattern.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
(today through Sunday)
several vort maxes in the cyclonic flow aloft will continue to
produce showery type precipitation across the region through
Sunday. Winds will mainly be of the small craft variety, with a
few periods of localized sustained gales possible. This will be a
result of increased dry and cold advection on the backside of the
disturbances, which increases the downward mixing potential,
leading to the increase in winds. Wave heights will also increase
across central portions of the bering as this region will have a
long fetch length and be closer to the path of these
disturbances.

.Long term forecast (days 3 through 7 Monday night through
Friday)...

disorganization and uncertainty continues for the long term.

Solutions are at least similar to yesterday in that we start next
week with troughing over southcentral ak and a closed upper level
low near SW alaska. However, models are struggling with their
placement of the low over SW alaska with variation in the
troughing extending from this low over the eastern and central
aleutians. This means any frontal systems associated with this
low will be placed much differently at the surface. Therefore, we
still know weather will be active for much of the forecast area,
but the details are still very fuzzy.

Going forward through next week, a broad area of troughing
remains over southcentral ak, with disorganized lows spinning
through this trough. Once again, too far in out in time to predict
particulars of these systems. Ridging exists over the central
aleutians, while a trough is over the western aleutians. This
trough ridge pattern will be slowly working its way east through
the week, with models hinting at the ridge arriving over
southcentral ak on Friday.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... Winter weather advisory 141 152.

Marine... Gale warning 119 120 130 131 414.

Synopsis and model discussion... Pamber
southcentral alaska... Seb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Pd
long term... Bb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 9 mi41 min NNE 4.1 G 6 35°F 36°F1002 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 73 mi41 min 45°F1001.7 hPa
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 83 mi33 min NNE 7.8 G 9.7 41°F 42°F1004.4 hPa (+0.7)41°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK6 mi30 minN 310.00 miOvercast36°F27°F70%1001.9 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK8 mi87 minENE 610.00 miOvercast34°F32°F91%0 hPa
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK11 mi30 minNE 510.00 miLight Rain35°F28°F78%1002.1 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK13 mi30 minENE 510.00 miLight Rain36°F30°F79%1001.8 hPa
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK23 mi27 minNNE 410.00 miOvercast33°F27°F78%1003 hPa

Wind History from AMR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N5CalmN4CalmNE3NE5CalmCalmNE3E3E3CalmNE3N4CalmCalmNE4CalmNE4NE3N4N3N3
1 day agoNE3N4CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E3N3NE5E3NE5N6CalmN4N3N4N6CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
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Sat -- 01:12 AM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:36 AM AKST     22.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:36 AM AKST     7.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:11 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 02:37 PM AKST     25.19 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:40 PM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:16 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:20 PM AKST     8.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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20.322.222.321.419.617.21410.57.97.710.214.719.523.124.925.124.12218.814.610.78.48.912

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.