Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hope, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 9:53PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 6:34 AM AKDT (14:34 UTC) Moonrise 5:38AMMoonset 7:44PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 308 Am Akdt Tue Apr 25 2017
Today..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu through Sat..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hope, AK
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location: 61.15, -149.76     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 251210
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
410 am akdt Tue apr 25 2017

Analysis and upper levels
A vertically stacked low centered over the central aleutians is
providing the steering flow for much of the weather occurring over
southern alaska this morning. Another wave of moisture
circulating around the low is over the gulf and moving towards the
north gulf coast. Downsloping has largely kept the usual
downslope shadowed locations dry, but above mountain top level,
overcast skies are preventing much nighttime cooling. Most
locations in the southcentral are holding in the 40s. Temperatures
across southwest alaska are slightly cooler, but a similar
scenario is playing out, with widespread cloud cover limiting
cooling. Scattered shower activity is present across bristol bay.

Over the bering, once again it's the low over the central
aleutians causing a slow swirl of the abundant cloud cover, with
off-and-on showers for the entire area.

Model discussion
With a stagnant weather pattern in place,
the models are all in good agreement with the movement (or lack
thereof) of the large- scale weather systems. The NAM was the
preferred model for its higher resolution. However, because any
shower activity over the area, especially southwest alaska and the
bering is being driven by even smaller scale processes, timing
where and when each shower will produce rain at the surface is
nearly impossible. The NAM however, gives the best approximation.

Besides precipitation chances, other forecast challenges in this
pattern include determining the strength and location of the
turnagain arm jet, which typically sets up with cross-barrier flow
through the mountains. Broad-scale forecast confidence is high
with local scale confidence somewhat lower.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions will continue to prevail although brief
periods of MVFR clouds are possible at times this morning. Turnagain
arm winds may bend north towards panc this afternoon for bringing
an increase in southeasterly winds.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Southeasterly flow aloft over south central alaska will continue
today and then weaken this evening. Another "surge" of moisture
will push into the area today, with isolated to scattered showers,
more numerous along the kenai peninsula. This moisture will weaken
and move south tonight as weak high pressure builds into the
mainland from the east. On Wednesday and Wednesday night the high
pressure will retreat northward. With limited moisture, most of
the showers will be in the higher elevations, with just isolated
showers for the inland valleys.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Rain showers will be a little more prevalent today across the
mainland. A shortwave propagating through the flow from the gulf
will keep showers going this morning, mostly across the bristol
bay area. During the afternoon and evening hours, activity will
spread to the kuskokwim delta and valley. Both the colder air
aloft associated with the shortwave, and the warmer springtime
diurnal temperatures will enhance the shower activity today making
for some of the first convective activity of the season. Rain
showers will be much less widespread on Wednesday, but still
scattered in nature. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy conditions
with high temperatures in the 40s to low 50s and generally light
winds.

Short term forecast bering sea/aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The broad low pressure system spinning over the central bering
will make little movement over the next couple days. Scattered
rain showers and light winds will remain the norm. Areas of fog
can be expected from the pribilof islands and north/eastward over
the water.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Southwest flow will persist through the weekend and will keep
moderately unsettled weather across the region. Thursday and
Friday, a low pressure system will slide north and into SE alaska.

In its wake will be an abundance of moisture and cloud cover
across southcentral ak. Friday and Saturday a closed bering low
becomes an open wave over the southwest with a trough axis
swinging over southcentral which will bring increased chances for
rain across the southern mainland.

Weak ridging will build in across the southern mainland into the
weekend. Come Sunday, SE alaska is expected to see a similar
scenario pan out as what will be happening weds/thurs. Numerical
guidance begins to struggle in day 5 and later frame with run
consistency issues and large ensemble spread across the bering.

There are similarities in timing of an elongated frontal/trough
passage across the chain this weekend, but wildly different
solutions on how strong and where the attached low will be.

Afc watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Jw
southcentral alaska... Bl
southwest alaska/bering sea/aleutians... Ml
long term... Ss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 9 mi46 min ENE 1.9 G 1.9 39°F 35°F1002 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 73 mi46 min 44°F
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 83 mi44 min N 9.7 G 9.7 41°F 44°F1004.3 hPa (+0.0)40°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK6 mi41 minNNE 410.00 miOvercast39°F37°F93%1001.9 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK8 mi36 minN 010.00 miOvercast39°F36°F91%1001 hPa
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK11 mi41 minN 010.00 miOvercast39°F35°F86%1002 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK13 mi41 minSE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F35°F79%1001.7 hPa
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK23 mi38 minS 310.00 miFair35°F34°F96%1003 hPa

Wind History from AMR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3N3NE3NE5CalmNW3NW3CalmW5W4S3CalmNW3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3NE4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmW3CalmNW3NW4NW5NW6NW5Calm33NW5N3N4CalmCalmCalmN4N4NW4CalmN3
2 days agoCalmCalmN7NE5N743N9N5NE5NW6NW5NW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3SE4W4

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:25 AM AKDT     1.75 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:06 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:38 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:00 AM AKDT     31.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:56 PM AKDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:30 PM AKDT     30.92 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:43 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:49 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.22.32.89.217.724.629.431.229.525.219.613.57.62.1-0.43.51220.326.730.430.427.221.916

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:08 AM AKDT     2.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:06 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:38 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:56 AM AKDT     31.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:34 PM AKDT     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:29 PM AKDT     31.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:44 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:49 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.92.23.99.717.725.330.331.930.125.619.211.64.5-0-0.34.11220.727.731.331.228.122.715.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.