Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hope, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:44AMSunset 11:08PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 5:29 AM AKDT (13:29 UTC) Moonrise 4:19AMMoonset 8:13PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 345 Am Akdt Wed May 24 2017
Today..E wind increasing to 20 kt during the morning. Seas building to 3 ft. Rain.
Tonight..E wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Thu..W wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
Thu night through Sun..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hope, AK
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location: 61.15, -149.76     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 241247
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
447 am akdt Wed may 24 2017

Analysis and upper levels
Looking at the latest IR image on goes-15... The cloud shield from
this mature low is already as far inland as denali national park
with a cold front bisecting the ak peninsula and a low anchoring
the occlusion near st lawrence island. The bering sea is flush
with cold air stratocumulus. The most recent ascat data really
captures the changes in the wind field for a portion of the cold
front south of the aleutians. This system is tracking eastward as
advertised.

Model discussion
The models are in decent agreement with the major synoptic features
at 500 mb through Saturday. The highlights include broad troughing
over the bering and into the aleutians... A ridge axis into SE ak
and widespread southwest flow into southcentral alaska. Several
shortwaves on the backside of the trough enter the domain but the
timing and the amplitude varies with these smaller features. Still
waiting for the details to flesh out for this weekend but
generally expecting cool and wet pattern.

Aviation
Panc... The latest image from the kenai radar clearly depicts
several bands of precipitation and the latest METAR at panc has
-ra in the observation. Expect reduced CIGS and precipitation for
the ensuing 36 hr period as the frontal boundary passes through
the region. Additional impacts from this storm include gusty
winds.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Rain will overspread most of southcentral this morning as a high
amplitude upper level trough and surface cold front approaches
from the west. Strong and moist southerly flow will lead to
heavier precipitation along the south sides of mountain ranges as
well as across the susitna valley. A shallow layer of southeasterly
flow along the kenai and western chugach mountains will keep
rainfall a little lighter near the mountains, with marginally
higher rainfall amounts expected near the inlet. The copper river
basin and northern half of kodiak island will remain notable drier
with this system due to downslope flow.

A short-wave moving through the larger trough will quickly track
northward into interior alaska tonight, helping to drive the
trough and surface front eastward. This will bring a quick end to
rain tonight for all but the upslope areas along the alaska range
and eastern prince william sound. While wetting rains are still
expected, rainfall totals will not be as high as first thought a
few days ago when it looked like a slower progression of the
upper levels.

Another potent upper level low and short-wave moving through the
long-wave trough will then move to southcentral on Thursday. With
500mb temperatures dropping to -35 degrees celsius or colder mid
level lapse rates will rapidly steepen. When combined with
impressive dynamical lift and strong south to southwest winds,
conditions look favorable for heavy showers, particularly along
the kenai, chugach, and talkeetna mountains. Have introduced a
slight chance of thunderstorms for these areas and others nearby.

Meanwhile, low level cold advection will cause snow levels to drop
to 2000 feet or lower by Thursday night. Showers will be tapering
off overnight, but there is potential for snow accumulation on
area mountains before showers end.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The frontal system stretched across southwest alaska and the
alaska peninsula this morning will swing east through the day,
shifting the areas of heavier rain to the west slopes of the
alaska and aleutian ranges. An unseasonably cold upper level
trough behind the frontal system will swing onshore this afternoon
and evening, bringing the potential for isolated thunderstorms and
then changing the precipitation type over to snow showers
overnight. A deeper secondary trough will rotate onshore over the
kuskokwim delta early Thursday morning and continue across
southwest alaska through the day Thursday. This trough will both
increase shower coverage again and bring a good potential for
thunderstorms to the kuskokwim valley Thursday afternoon and
evening. Showers will taper off to a more scattered coverage
Thursday night through Friday as the parent upper low weakens
somewhat and drifts north.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The large vertically stacked low centered over the northern bering
will open to a trough which will reach the kuskokwim delta coast
tonight. The main upper low center will shift north to become
vertically stacked with a surface low just north of the bering
strait Thursday morning. The entire low complex will then
gradually drift further north through Friday. To the south, a
surface low will approach the western aleutians this evening will
continue east along the chain to reach the eastern aleutian
Thursday night and the alaska peninsula Friday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The very cold upper level low over the state will continue to be
the major story into the weekend. Snow levels will gradually rise
but the cold temperatures aloft will keep conditions conducive for
periods of showers over the majority of the region. A cutoff low
will develop from the main upper level low on Sunday and remain
over kodiak island as the main low finally lifts back into the
arctic.

After this the uncertainty really increases as model spread
dramatically increases for the operational runs. The model
ensembles are indicating the next surface low will scoot just a
little south of the aleutians but that solution is far from
certain.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Pjs
southcentral alaska... Sb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Jr
long term... Ez


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 9 mi41 min NE 2.9 G 7 44°F 48°F1016 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 73 mi41 min 49°F
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 83 mi39 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 47°F 48°F1 ft1019.6 hPa (+1.1)42°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NW5
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S9
G14
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G16
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G7

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK6 mi36 minN 010.00 miLight Rain43°F41°F93%1015.7 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK8 mi91 minNNW 610.00 miLight Drizzle44°F38°F83%1015.5 hPa
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK11 mi36 minNE 610.00 miLight Rain44°F39°F85%1015.9 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK13 mi36 minSE 38.00 miLight Rain44°F42°F93%1015.6 hPa
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK23 mi33 minN 010.00 miLight Rain43°F39°F86%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from AMR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSW11S8
G16
S10SW11
G15
S11CalmW10
G15
W10W9W13W11W9W7W6SW6CalmNW3E4N3N3CalmCalm
1 day agoE5E3NE3CalmNW44--SE11
G16
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G14
S5S11S9S11SW9S8SW7SE3S4Calm
2 days agoW4W4SW3W3NW5W7W4CalmCalmCalmS4SW4SW4CalmNW4NW3S4S9S9S10
G21
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G17
S10S10Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:55 AM AKDT     3.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:50 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:20 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:23 AM AKDT     31.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:31 PM AKDT     -1.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:09 PM AKDT     30.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:13 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:04 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.13.26.714.722.528.131.130.827.121.715.79.73.9-0.8-0.85.414.322.127.830.529.225.119.714.1

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:37 AM AKDT     3.84 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:50 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:20 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:20 AM AKDT     32.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:07 PM AKDT     -1.91 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:08 PM AKDT     31.01 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:14 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:04 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.64.27.914.922.728.931.931.427.922.214.97.21-1.9-06.214.823.128.83129.926.120.413.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.