Wednesday, August16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hope, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 9:54PM Wednesday August 16, 2017 7:23 AM AKDT (15:23 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 5:09PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 325 Am Akdt Wed Aug 16 2017
Today..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
Tonight..E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
Thu..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
Thu night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat through Sun..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hope, AK
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location: 61.15, -149.76     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 161147
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
347 am akdt Wed aug 16 2017

Analysis and upper levels
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a potent jet streak
transiting the bering strait and moving into the eastern bering
sea. By the look of recent satellite imagery, it appears the upper
level trough that encompasses the entire state of alaska has begun
to amplify in response to this jet streak. The trough that
encompasses alaska is an extension of the polar jet stream that
continues to filter in colder air across the majority of the
state. The subtropical jet, which has made several appearances to
alaska through the summer months, remains well south in the north
pacific due to the impressive polar jet. This pattern does not
look to change anytime soon as continued disturbances from the
arctic will only act to reinforce the current synoptic pattern
that has been observed for the past week or so. In the mean time,
high pressure over the western aleutians has actually brought
about some clearing skies with fog not being an issue due to the
very dry surface layer. Looking back toward the mainland, a rather
impressive frontal boundary has started to bring rainfall to the
bering sea coast with additional showers developing as far east as
the cook inlet region due to some instability ahead of the main
trough.

Model discussion
Models remain in very good agreement through much of the short-
term. Numerical guidance, from both the 00z and 06z runs, has
initialized the jet streak over the bering strait rather well
which helps increase confidence in model output. While models
handle the evolution of the longwave pattern rather well, a series
of disturbances embedded within the upper level trough over alaska
are hard to resolve. This will keep some areas more rainy than
others through the forecast period but should have little impact
otherwise. One thing we will be watching is tropical storm banyan
that was located at 31.2n 163.4e at 09z Wednesday. This system is
expected to become extratropical by Friday as it moves toward
amchitka and adak. Models notoriously struggle with extratropical
transitions and thus are showing a wide variety of solutions.

Overall, this system is expected to have little impact to the
region thanks to the high pressure over the western aleutian
islands.

Aviation
Panc... Rainfall will move into the area between 15z and 16z.

Ceilings will drop to MVFR with the possibility of brief ifr
ceilings in heavier embedded showers. Rainfall will aper off
and ceilings begin to improve around 06z to 09z Thursday but
showers will remain in the area.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The upper level trough over southwest alaska will move into
southcentral today. Moist southerly flow aloft will bring rain to
much of the area, with the exception of the copper river basin
which will be mainly dry and breezy. The rain will change to
showers tonight as the main moisture stream pushes to the south.

Showers will continue through Thursday as fairly strong cyclonic
flow aloft remains over the area. By Friday morning showers will
diminish, as the trough begins to lift out and the flow aloft
becomes more westerly.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
An upper level trough has started to work its way into the
southwest mainland from the northern bering this morning, as well
as an upper level low tracking through the alaska peninsula and
bristol bay area. This upper level forcing working in tandem with
the onshore flow supplying ample amounts of moisture to the area,
has started to support the development of widespread rainfall
across the bristol bay and kuskokwim delta this morning. The upper
trough will remain over much of the southwest mainland, with a
series of embedded shortwaves tracking through the area and
keeping showers in the forecast through Thursday night.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
High pressure in the west bering continues to support relatively
drier conditions and less cloud cover in the region, with broad
northwesterly flow across much of the bering. However, with
slightly more stable conditions over the western bering, some
patchy fog is still expected over the area. The low level jet
between this high pressure system and the trough over the
kuskokwim delta coast will gradually increase through this
afternoon and bring gales to the central and eastern bering.

Fairly drier conditions are expected across much of the bering,
with the exception of the eastern bering as an upper level trough
dives southward.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
An active wet pattern continues in the long range forecast
Saturday through late next Monday. A merger of two low pressure
systems is anticipated for this upcoming weekend. A broad trough
deepens over the western coast and shifts east through Saturday.

At the same time a fast paced north pacific low races along the
aleutian chain, taking a northward turn Saturday night. The merger
of these two systems will likely bring moderate to heavy rainfall
along the gulf coastal areas and southcentral. Models differ in
timing and track of this merger, therefore a broad brushed
solution of the ensembles of the ECMWF and GFS were used to update
the inherited forecast. For the bering and southwest mainland,
a short break with drier conditions settles in Sunday as a ridge
builds behind the eastward moving trough over the mainland. On
Monday rain moves back into the southwest coast from a fast diving
low off of kamchatka, and another north pacific front moves into
the western bering aleutians along an eastward progressive
subtropical jet streak.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale... 155 170 171 179.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Mmc
southcentral alaska... Bl
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Tp
long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 9 mi54 min W 6 G 7 54°F 58°F1000.4 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 73 mi54 min 57°F
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 83 mi34 min NE 9.7 G 12 52°F 56°F1 ft1001.8 hPa (-1.1)47°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK6 mi31 minWSW 310.00 miOvercast52°F50°F93%1000.1 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK8 mi88 minN 010.00 miOvercast53°F52°F100%999.9 hPa
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK11 mi31 minW 410.00 miOvercast53°F48°F83%1000.5 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK13 mi31 minWSW 310.00 miOvercast53°F48°F86%1000.1 hPa
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK23 mi28 minSSW 310.00 miOvercast52°F50°F93%1001.2 hPa

Wind History from AMR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmW4W4N44N55SW8W8W10W5S4CalmSE6S3SE3E3CalmCalmSW3SW3SW3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmW5SW5W8NW75W10W4W4CalmNW4S9SW5CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmN3
2 days agoS4S6S7
G16
S5S9S5S4S4NE4N5W5S8S5S3CalmE3--E3E3CalmCalmCalmNW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:46 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:55 AM AKDT     27.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:11 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:24 AM AKDT     2.99 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:17 PM AKDT     25.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:09 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:39 PM AKDT     7.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:53 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
24.42727.726.422.918.113.195.73.33.88.714.919.723.325.324.721.717.513.310.27.97.411.2

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:46 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:48 AM AKDT     28.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:11 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:02 AM AKDT     3.81 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:47 PM AKDT     25.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:09 PM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:24 PM AKDT     8.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:54 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
23.927.728.726.923.519.114.29.45.53.85.39.915.921.224.525.123.921.518.314.6118.79.112.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.