Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 9:46 PM Moonrise 8:13 PM   Moonset 4:03 AM

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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
.small craft advisory Thursday - .
Today - W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.Tonight - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Thu - W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near whittier in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.Thu night - W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.Fri - W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.Sat - W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.Sun - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 222352 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 352 PM AKDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Increased low-level moisture and weak lift associated with shortwave troughing over the inland Bristol Bay area has allowed for diurnally driven cumulus field over the Anchorage Bowl and up through the Mat- Su Valleys. Some of these may be able to squeeze out some light precipitation this afternoon before starting to dissipate from loss of heating. Temperatures this afternoon will be highly dependent on cloud cover and may jump up several degrees if clouds clear for a period. Otherwise, expect most locations across the western Kenai, Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valleys, and the Copper River Basin to see temperatures generally ranging from the mid 40s to around 50 degrees. Gusty winds through the Turnagain Arm, Knik River Valley, and Copper River Valley will peak tonight...decreasing through Tuesday morning.

For the western Kenai and most of inland Southcentral, mild temperatures and benign weather will continue through at least midweek. Isolated to scattered showers may linger into tonight, but should dissipate by Tuesday morning as the shortwave trough over Bristol Bay moves eastwards towards the Copper Basin overnight.
Ridging will then build over Southcentral and continue to amplify Tuesday into Wednesday.

For Kodiak, Prince William Sound, and the Gulf coastal areas...
Scattered to widespread showers will be common the remainder of today and gradually wind down through the day Tuesday as the shortwave trough pushes to the east and the low in the central Gulf treks easts towards Southeast Alaska. Showers will begin to pick back up along Kodiak by Wednesday as front lifts north across the AKPen and western Gulf.

- PP

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A vertically stacked low, roughly 40 nm northeast of Shemya, will peak in intensity later tonight at around 968 mb. Recent ASCAT pass shows widespread northeasterly gales west of Saint Matthew Island, extending to just north of Shemya. The low is expected to meander almost due north the next 48 hours, ending up almost 300 nautical miles northwest of the Pribilof Islands. The most pressing concern across the Bering and Southwest Alaska will involve expected gusty conditions associated with the low as it tracks just north of the Central Aleutians and its front slides through the Pribilof Islands, eventually spreading into the Kuskokwim Delta coast.

Latest observations in Saint Paul show east to southeasterly gusts up to 45 knots and increasing rain showers as the front moves overhead. Winds over the Pribs have likely peaked intensity and should trend down through midnight tonight. Further south along the front, the Eastern Aleutians are also seeing an uptick in precipitation. Winds through Dutch Harbor are gusting up to 35 knots. These gusty conditions will be the norm along the front as it continues east, spanning Nunivak Island tonight. An initial mix of rain and snow across Mekoryuk should transition to all rain through tomorrow morning as temperatures warm to above freezing and winds gust to around 40 mph. As a result, the threat for any blowing snow will be relatively low.

The more potent portion of the Bering Sea low will be further south and west over the Western and Central Aleutians. Winds wrapping around the backside of the low and spreading northeastward ahead of the low will bring widespread gales and gusts to 50+ knots tonight through Tuesday morning. Peak forecast wind gusts across Adak will top out at around 65 mph through early Tuesday morning. However, the stacked low should be steadily weakening by that point and southwesterly gusts associated with the front moving into the Eastern Aleutians will likely trend below gale force by tomorrow evening.

Finally, while Southwest Alaska is expected to see mostly benign conditions the next days, showers, mostly rain, begin to spread inland of the coast on Wednesday.



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

On Friday, an upper level low over the Aleutians slides southeastward into the North Pacific underneath a ridge axis over the Yukon and mainland Alaska through the weekend. The associated large surface low also slides southeastward during this time period, continuing areas of showers and locally heavy precipitation and gusty winds from the central Aleutians through Southwest Alaska.

As we head into early next week, there is considerable uncertainty in the upper level pattern over the Bering upstream of the upper low. The deterministic GFS remains the most progressive, with a trough entering the Bering and Aleutians Sunday night. The Canadian and ECMWF, however, begin to build in a ridge over the Aleutians by late Monday. As such, the GFS brings a moderately strong low into southwest Alaska, also impacting Southcentral through Tuesday. There is little to no ensemble support for a strong low at this time, even with the GEFS.
Regardless, there is still low confidence even within the ensemble systems, with the GEPS and especially EPS showing a weak progressive ridge building into Southwest Alaska early next week, while the GEFS still continues a broad longwave trough across Southwest Alaska early next week, which could still promote unsettled weather.

-ME

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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:50 AM AKDT     4.57 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:03 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:38 AM AKDT     30.12 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:13 PM AKDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:51 PM AKDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 08:14 PM AKDT     29.05 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:45 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:12 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska, Tide feet

Anchorage
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:15 AM AKDT     2.92 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:03 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:11 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:43 AM AKDT     29.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:41 PM AKDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:51 PM AKDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 08:21 PM AKDT     28.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:45 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:12 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Anchorage, Alaska, Tide feet

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