Saturday, April20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point MacKenzie, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 9:36PM Saturday April 20, 2019 8:32 AM AKDT (16:32 UTC) Moonrise 9:38PMMoonset 5:31AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 357 Am Akdt Sat Apr 20 2019
.small craft advisory today and Sunday...
Today..E wind 25 kt early diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
Tonight..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
Sun..E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Sun night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon through Wed..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point MacKenzie, AK
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location: 61.23, -150.03     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 201250
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
450 am akdt Sat apr 20 2019

Analysis and upper levels
A deep trough continues to remains entrenched along an axis that
extends from northwestern alaska to the alaska peninsula. This
trough is anchored by a pair of mid-level lows, with one centered
near kotzebue, and the other across southwest alaska. These two
features, along with several smaller scale circulations, have been
rotating around each other in a fujiwhara-like fashion, which
helps maintain the trough orientation and position.

At the surface, some small scale circulations have been observed
on doppler radar imagery this morning, with one being located
south to southeast of bethel (this was interesting to watch around
09z when the tiny MCV induced a larger mass response in the wind
fields), and another that was observed over the cook inlet west of
kenai, which has since dissolved.

A general showery type pattern is seen in radar imagery across
southwest alaska, with a greater coverage and intensity noted
across much of southcentral, especially near the prince william
sound coast. This heavier precipitation has played a role in
reduced visibilities at some area airports.

Model discussion
The models remain in excellent agreement at the surface and aloft,
leading to a higher than average forecast. The GFS model is
slightly faster and has a little further west position of a
surface low moving towards the kenai peninsula on Sunday. However,
both models are within a millibar or two in strength of each
other, with good pressure field continuity. Thus, impacts to the
forecast are minimal.

Aviation
Panc... Snow showers crossing the terminal will hold ceilings down
to around 2200 feet for a few more hours, beforeVFR conditions
prevail through the afternoon. However, an area of low pressure
will approach the region later this evening and into Sunday,
dropping both ceilings and visibilities back into the MVFR range,
as widespread precipitation develops.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 Sat and
sun)...

a dynamic pattern will unfold through the weekend. The upper level
low that brought the colder air and snow to close out the work
week remains over the susitna valley this morning. Its trailing
shortwave and associated instability continue to produce
widespread showers across much of southcentral. With the cooler
airmass, most locations are holding as snow during the overnight
hours except for spots right along the immediate coast. This
shortwave should continue to lift north and out of the area
through the day today. A transient ridge will slide through this
afternoon and could even bring some breaks of sunshine back to the
area. The april Sun should once again allow high temperatures to
crest into the low 40s for nearly all areas.

Another potent low will take shape over the gulf of ak heading
through the day. In advance of this system, deep southerly flow
and instability along the coast (mainly prince william sound
through cordova) will keep precipitation falling through the day.

Higher elevations such as thompson pass could pick up several more
inches of snow. As the low center itself approaches tonight, it
will shift the corridor of heaviest precipitation slightly to the
west highlighting western prince william sound through seward. It
will bring several more inches of snow to the higher elevations
(1500' and above) around turnagain pass. This system will also
create some gusty south to southeast winds with a fairly tight
pressure gradient. These will stretch up through the typical
locations of the turnagain arm, knik river valley, and copper
river basin. For places along the western kenai peninsula, there
could be a brief period of blowing snow early Sun morning as
down-inlet flow initially reinforces some colder air. But once
the east- southeast winds push in Sunday, temperatures should rise
quickly and precipitation at sea level will quickly turn over to
rain. Around the anchorage bowl, a brief shot of snow is all that
is expected before cross-barrier flow ramps up and dries things
out.

Unsettled weather will remain in the forecast to start next week.

While there doesn't appear to be any large-scale snow events for
the population centers at this time, the airmass will certainly be
cold enough to support snow and keep things feeling like early
march.

.Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3 today
through Monday night)...

an upper level low will continue to track northward over western
alaska today. As it phases with a second upper low to the north,
a broad upper trough will form and continue to bring cooler
temperatures, mostly cloudy skies and scattered flurries over
southwest and mixed precipitation over the akpen.

Although some uncertainty still exists, models are coming into a
general consensus for widespread accumulating snow in the lower
kuskokwim valley on Sunday as a strengthening low tracks northward
over the gulf. The center of the low will move over cook inlet by
midday providing a good setup for the development of a
deformation band as the associated moisture tracks over the alaska
range. While higher elevations will as usual see the most
accumulation, confidence is moderate to high for at least 2 to 5
inches from iliamna to crooked creek with localized higher amounts
possible by Monday morning. Areas along the kuskokwim delta and
bristol bay coast should remain generally snow free, however
onshore flurries and gusty winds are likely along the immediate
coastline.

.Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3 tonight
through Monday night)...

a broad upper level low and associated shortwave troughs will
continue the cool and cloudy pattern experienced over the region
the past several days. Persistent northerly flow will bring
scattered snow showers (possibly mixing in the afternoon) for
much of the aleutians today. These will become more widespread
Sunday and Monday. Again, mixing will be possible when maximum
temperatures will occur, however precipitation should still
mainly fall as snow.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
A series of weak lows will move through the region early next
week. Models are in good agreement that these lows will stay below
gale force, however there is a chance for a few isolated areas
that could briefly reach gale force winds in the gulf.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The long term forecast, beginning Monday night, looks to have a
broad, complex low over the southern mainland. This setup will
keep the region unstable with showers over the area. There is some
inconsistency amongst the models on when the pattern will shift
but the general idea is that the low will push off to the
southeast sometime Wednesday with high pressure moving in. The
result is the showers clearing out for most locations for the
southern mainland. By the end of the week there is high model
disagreement resulting in the ensembles being preferred.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 119 125
fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Pd
southcentral alaska... Mso
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ap
marine long term... Dk mm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 7 mi33 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 32°F 38°F1007.6 hPa (+0.6)
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 82 mi33 min S 15 G 18 35°F 40°F1007 hPa (+0.8)
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 83 mi33 min 44°F1006.5 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK4 mi40 minSE 310.00 miOvercast33°F23°F66%1007.6 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK4 mi40 minSSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy34°F21°F61%1007.3 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi40 minE 410.00 miOvercast31°F25°F79%1007.4 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK12 mi97 minE 410.00 miOvercast31°F25°F79%1006.5 hPa

Wind History from ALH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
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Sat -- 02:36 AM AKDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:23 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:30 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:28 AM AKDT     33.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:00 PM AKDT     -3.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:06 PM AKDT     32.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:35 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:37 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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14.26.51.40.85.313.422.429.633.433.329.723.214.86.1-0.8-3.4-0.86.415.924.730.632.931.527

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Alaska
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Anchorage
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Sat -- 03:12 AM AKDT     -0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:23 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:30 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:36 AM AKDT     32.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:39 PM AKDT     -3.65 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:09 PM AKDT     32.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:35 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:37 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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14.58.94.3-0.53.614.722.228.131.932.328.522.616.410.85.5-1.1-2.7716.623.929.332.130.525.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.