Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point MacKenzie, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 9:35AMSunset 4:47PM Thursday January 24, 2019 1:41 AM AKST (10:41 UTC) Moonrise 9:33PMMoonset 10:18AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 339 Pm Akst Wed Jan 23 2019
.gale warning Thursday night...
Tonight..E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts to 30 in the evening. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Thu..E wind 30 kt becoming 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Thu night..E wind 20 kt becoming 35 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
Fri..E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Fri night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat through Mon..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point MacKenzie, AK
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location: 61.23, -150.03     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 240618 cca
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service anchorage ak
918 pm akst Wed jan 23 2019

Analysis and upper levels
A large upper level low is centered over the western aleutians
with a trough extending to the east into the gulf of alaska and a
strong ridge of high pressure aloft through the panhandle into the
eastern interior. At the surface a strong front is currently
moving inland along the north gulf coast bringing rain and snow to
most coastal areas along with strong winds. Strong gap flow wind
is currently evident across turnagain arm portage valley,
matanuska valley, and will be increasing out of the knik river,
and along the copper river as the front heads north this evening.

A second surface low about 600 nm south of kodiak and its
associated weather front is hot on the heals of the current
system, heading north toward kodiak island. A 977 mb surface low
is south of unalaska moving north and the main anchoring surface
low is about 300 nm north of adak around 968 mb. This low is
dragging colder air back into the western bering sea and western
aleutians, while on the east side of this system much warmer air
has pushed over the southern mainland.

Model discussion
Consensus between the models still remains poor overall for the
Thursday Friday timeframe over the gulf. The nam GFS continue
bring a storm force low north into the gulf Thursday and Thursday
night while the ECMWF can nh have a much weaker and faster low.

The run to run consistency of the GFS appears to be better. So
will be leaning that way on this forecast package.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions should prevail through Thursday with a few
periods isolated mixed showers. Gusty southeast winds across the
airport complex which will develop by the late afternoon and
continue into the late evening hours. After that llws will
redevelop across the airport complex as the surface flow will
shift to the north while winds above the surface become strong
southeasterly.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 tonight
through Friday)...

a front stalled along the northern gulf coast pulls inland
tonight as an upper level wave extending from the bering low lifts
north. This will spread light snow inland, however a few
localized areas which warmed today could see a mix... Mainly along
the matanuska valley and surrounding areas. Flow generally out
south to east across the gulf brings gusty conditions across the
east to west oriented gaps through Friday as two more fronts push
to the coast... Winds will slacken briefly between fronts.

The biggest change was made to increase winds for Friday. Storm
force winds are now expected to rapidly increase across the
central gulf Thursday night as a 150 knot jet noses the next storm
system toward the southern mainland.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The front that brought a mix of rain and snow to southwest alaska
is exiting off to the north and will be replaced by weak ridging
that will clear out any remaining showers this evening. However,
the ridging will be short lived as another front will move in over
the area late tonight. This front will bring more warm air which
will transition the precipitation, that will primarily start as
snow, over to rain for southern locations. Showers will last
through Thursday but uncertainty with the next system approaching
from the north pacific lowers confidence in what will happen
Thursday night into Friday. The models are struggling with the
position of the low that will play a big factor in temperatures
across the area and how much precipitation will fall for
southwest alaska.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The low over the western bering will slowly track south towards
the western aleutians where it will stay in that vicinity as it
weakens into Friday. This setup will keep a mix of rain and snow
showers over the area into Friday with the strongest winds tonight
that will taper off Thursday. The central and eastern bering will
see a series of lows track through the area from the south
bringing more showers to the region and warmer air to eastern
locations. On Friday a stronger low will approach the central
aleutians from the south bringing another push of warm air to the
area and gale force winds to marine areas around the central and
eastern aleutians.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
The weekend will see another round of low pressure in the bering
sea. Model guidance is not consistent, but have decided on a
forecast based on the american models. Both models have the low in
the bering Saturday being a large and powerful one, with storm
force winds likely for the central bering aleutians, so have added
them to the forecast. We will have to hone this area of winds
over the next couple of days. The large size of this low also
means gale force winds will encompass most of the bering sea and
aleutians Saturday into Sunday, with winds beginning to taper
Sunday. In the gulf of alaska, remnants of a low moving through
will keep gales in the northwest gulf until Saturday, with strong
winds in shelikof strait as well. Things will quiet a bit after
that, but another round of winds in association with the low over
the bering will make it into the western gulf Saturday into
Sunday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Seeing as how models can't agree farther out than two days,
confidence is low when we move into the long term with the
forecast. In coordination with wpc this morning, the solution in
the long term is to base the forecast off of ensemble guidance. We
agree with the wpc solution, so will lean that way going forward
with the forecast. Major features were able to be discerned in the
longterm, with ridging over ak on Saturday and another large low
entering the bering sea. After the low exits Monday, ridging is
anticipated to build in over much of the forecast area, with a
trough over the western aleutians. Of course, details cannot be
defined at this time, so a broad brush approach was taken to the
forecast. Stay tuned as things will likely change.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Storm warning 119 120 131.

Gale warning 125 129 130 132 136>139 150 155 165 170 178 185.

Heavy freezing spray 185.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Rc
southcentral alaska... Kh
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Dk
marine long term... Bb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 7 mi59 min SW 8.9 G 9.9 32°F 1007 hPa
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 82 mi53 min ENE 11 G 16 35°F 31°F1005.3 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 83 mi59 min 41°F1006.5 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK4 mi48 minNW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy30°F25°F82%1007 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK4 mi48 minWNW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F27°F82%1006.9 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi48 minVar 410.00 miMostly Cloudy31°F24°F76%1006.7 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK12 mi1.8 hrsN 1610.00 miA Few Clouds32°F28°F85%1005.1 hPa

Wind History from ALH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE5N7CalmE4W6NW6N3NW9N8NW6W8N4E3N7NW3CalmN3W3NW4W4NW6NW5NW8
1 day agoNE5NE5E4E4NE5NE3NE5E3N7NE6E5NE5CalmN4NE3S3Calm3NW3N7N8NW4N6NE5
2 days agoN7N8N5N6N7NE8N6N9N7N6N8NE7N8N8NE7N8N8NE4N6E5E5E4E5NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
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Thu -- 03:27 AM AKST     -3.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:30 AM AKST     33.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:39 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:17 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:54 PM AKST     1.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:44 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:35 PM AKST     32.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:32 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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17.28.91.5-2.8-2.62.711.521.128.832.732.829.523.816.69.43.81.94.711.419.927.231.431.828.7

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:58 AM AKST     -5.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:37 AM AKST     31.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:39 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:16 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:16 PM AKST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:44 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:38 PM AKST     31.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:32 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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16.910.44.7-0.7-5.11.712.720.726.53131.628.222.616.610.75.60.43.213.421.527.23131.727.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.