Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point MacKenzie, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 9:06AMSunset 4:22PM Thursday November 15, 2018 7:01 PM AKST (04:01 UTC) Moonrise 2:17PMMoonset 10:55PM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 336 Pm Akst Thu Nov 15 2018
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
Fri night..E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun through Tue..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point MacKenzie, AK
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location: 61.23, -150.03     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 160143
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
443 pm akst Thu nov 15 2018

Analysis and upper levels
Upper level ridging remains over southcentral alaska this
afternoon with an upper level trough extending over the eastern
bering sea, across the alaska peninsula and then southward to
near 35n 155w. A surface low in the mid 980s is located under this
upper level trough around 50n 155w. However, since this low is no
longer in a favorable location in regards to the location of the
jet stream around this trough (which extends to 35n) it will
weaken as it moves northeastward toward the gulf of alaska.

A second upper level trough is near the kamchatka peninsula
and there is a surface low associated with it near 50n 165e.

While this low is in a better location in regards to the jet
stream to become the main low, it too will slowly weaken as it
treks eastward over the weekend.

Model discussion
Models remain is decent synoptic agreement through the weekend.

Even so, they are showing a change from yesterday impacting the
timing of precipitation moving into southcentral alaska Friday
into Saturday. There is more on that in the southcentral section
below.

Models really begin to diverge on a low approaching the southwest
bering sea Sunday night into Monday. The GFS (and the end of the
nam run) show a strong low approaching the southwest bering. The
ecmwf and canadian are resolving a weak low near the northern
kamchatka peninsula at the same time and do not see any strong low
approaching the bering sea. This is more of an issue in the long
term forecast, but is significant enough to watch closely as more
model runs occur.

Aviation
Panc... Fog will remain a challenge throughout the night, but
improve by early tomorrow morning. Expect fog to come and go
through the early evening and then settle in again reducing
visibility to ifr conditions most of the night. Clouds will move
in late tonight and winds will also increase from the northeast.

These factors should increase the mixing near the surface and
therefore cause the fog to dissipate at that time.

.Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2 tonight
through Saturday night)...

a stable air mass supports re-development of dense fog tonight
along the kenai, anchorage bowl and copper river basin. Conditions
will improve by late Friday morning as a front across the southern
gulf tonight slides north to the coast. Gusty gales and rain
develop along the frontal boundary with strong northerly flow
increasing across the cook inlet and shelikof strait during the
afternoon as the surface low driving the front nears the southern
end of kodiak island.

Winds increase along the turnagain arm Friday morning through
Friday night as a low level easterly jet develops at the onset of
the approaching front. Precipitation is the biggest challenge with
this system as a warm air mass advects overhead faster than the
surface front. Overall, precipitation is expected to be light
along the western kenai, anchorage bowl and locations north as
downsloping over the mountains limits accumulations. The highest
accumulations are expected along the eastern kenai and prince
william sound which will fall as rain for sea level locations.

The front stalls Friday night along the northeast gulf as the
surface low moves inland over bristol bay and diminishes. This
boundary will be the focus for precipitation development through
Saturday for the northeast gulf and copper river basin. A shallow
cold air mass should keep thompson pass cold enough for all snow
at this location, however this should be monitored for updates as
freezing rain could be an issue if the front stalls further north.

Upgliding of the warm maritime air mass over the copper river
basin will bring several inches of fresh snow on Saturday from the
short wave which originally drives the front to the coast.

The next fast approaching front moves to kodiak island around noon
on Saturday bringing light rain through the afternoon along with
a re- enforcing push along the gulf coast.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
Dry off-shore flow will wane tonight as a north pacific front
merges with another upper level trough over the bering strait,
bringing a wintry mix of precipitation to southwest alaska tonight
through Friday night. Precipitation type will be a challenge, but
generally expecting coastal locations and areas near the leeside
of mountain ranges to quickly turn to rain with some light
accumulating snow over the interior and kusko delta. Warm air will
slowly erode the colder air mass with a gradual change over to
rain for most areas.

A reinforcing front will move in Saturday which will bring in
more precipitation and more warm air, so expecting mostly rain
except some mixed freezing rain rain over the lower kusko valley
into the kuskokwim mountains. However, this is not expected to be
a major or impactful freezing rain event with temperatures near 32
and only light precipitation for areas where freezing rain may
occur.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
The main focus for the western bering today is an incoming front
associated with a kamchatka low over the western aleutians. This
front is advecting warm moist air over the persistent and cold
northerly flow in the central bering. Mixed rain and snow has
been spreading in across the western aleutians this afternoon,
though a quick change to all rain is expected as surface
temperatures warm. As this front progresses eastward, it will weaken,
bringing residual rain showers to the central aleutians for
Friday. Also accompanying this front are easterly gale-force
winds that quickly weaken to small-craft by Fri morning. Looking
ahead to Sunday, the remnants of this front eventually drift into
bristol bay, bringing northerly cyclonic flow over the western
and central bering.

Looking eastward, a north pacific low is lifting over the
southern akpen. Easterly gale-force winds have accompanied the
leading front, a trend that will continue through Fri evening
before weakening to small-crafts.

.Long term forecast (days 3 through 7 Sunday night through
Thursday)...

an upper level trough currently working its way east from the
bering will be in place over southern alaska by the start of the
longterm. This will keep weather unsettled for southern ak through
the weekend and into early next week. A series of shortwave
troughs embedded in the longwave system will impact southcentral
ak, with the first trough moving into the area Sunday and the
second Monday. Timing and placement are not quite dialed in yet,
so continuing to refine the resultant forecast from these shortwaves.

Going into the middle of next week the GFS and ECMWF look to have
come into decent synoptic agreement, with a series of troughs
working their way across the aleutians and through southern ak.

The long term forecast period ends with troughing over southern ak
and the eastern aleutians, ridging over the central aleutians,
and troughing over the western aleutians. All of this means an
active weather pattern for the foreseeable future. With model
consistency being not great, also wouldn't be surprised to see
this pattern shift. This also means a messy forecast pattern with
low confidence after Monday. At the end of the forecast period on
Thursday, model agreement begins to completely fall apart, so
very little confidence for the tail end of the forecast period.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gales... 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150 177 178.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ez
southcentral alaska... Kh
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ja ko
long term... Bb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 7 mi37 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 25°F 36°F1021.4 hPa
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 82 mi31 min ENE 8 G 12 32°F 42°F1021.1 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 83 mi37 min 47°F1021 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK4 mi68 minNNE 410.00 miFair24°F21°F91%1021.3 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK4 mi68 minNE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy26°F21°F84%1020.9 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi68 minN 010.00 miFair23°F19°F85%1021 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK12 mi65 minNE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy24°F23°F100%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from ANC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmSE5E3SE3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmE3E3NE7NE5NE6E5NE4NE6NE5
1 day agoNW3NW3E3NE4CalmNE3E3CalmSE3SE4CalmCalmSE4S4S3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4S3S4
2 days agoCalmCalmE6CalmW6NW9SW4NW7SE14
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Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
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Thu -- 05:54 AM AKST     First Quarter
Thu -- 06:34 AM AKST     6.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:06 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:25 PM AKST     24.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:16 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:21 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:19 PM AKST     10.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:55 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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23.721.81915.912.49.16.76.59.113.818.922.824.624.623.321.418.815.612.510.711.113.917.821.2

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.