Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point MacKenzie, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 8:29PM Monday March 25, 2019 2:44 PM AKDT (22:44 UTC) Moonrise 12:08AMMoonset 7:46AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 333 Am Akdt Mon Mar 25 2019
Today..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Gusts to 30 kt near whittier after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..W wind 15 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near whittier. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point MacKenzie, AK
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location: 61.23, -150.03     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 251313
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
513 am akdt Mon mar 25 2019

Analysis and upper levels
The upper levels feature a largely zonal (west to east) upper
level wind flow across most of mainland southern alaska. A ridge
rapidly building northeastward over kodiak island this morning
will become the dominant upper level feature over southcentral the
next few days. Out west, a large storm over the western bering has
become vertically stacked. Thus, the center of the surface low
is also the center of a strong upper level low and associated
trough. The storm produced its strongest gust in adak around 11pm
last night, reaching 89 mph. The winds across the central
aleutians are now trending downward. The upper level trough
contains more seasonably cold air underneath it, which is sweeping
eastward across the bering. The cold front and leading edge of
that cold air is approaching the pribilof islands and dutch
harbor. Associated rain is moving in across the kuskokwim delta
this morning, but radar shows any substantive rain staying west of
bethel for now. Further east across mainland alaska, some high
and mid-level cloud cover continues to stream across the area.

Otherwise, quiet weather continues as the gap winds through
turnagain arm wane. Meanwhile, unseasonably warm weather
continues for most of the area with numerous locations seeing low
temperatures around where the average high is for this time of
year.

Model discussion
The models are in excellent agreement through the next 48 hours,
and thus, forecast confidence is high. Relatively quiet weather
for most of the area contributes to the high confidence forecast
as well. The biggest challenge will be potential fog development
over the next few days as a strong ridge and more warm air moves
in, supporting a capping inversion, with snowmelt contributing to
low-level moisture.

Aviation
Panc... The turnagain arm wind will diminish over the next few
hours as it weakens and drifts south of the airport. After that,VFR
conditions and light winds will persist for the rest of the day.

Tonight, fog development cannot be ruled out, and has been added
to the taf. It will be a recurrent problem for the next several
nights.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
High pressure will build over the area today. Dry conditions are
expected over the southcentral mainland and northern gulf for the
next few days after some lingering showers around prince william
sound and the northern susitna valley end by this afternoon.

Offshore winds will increase tonight through gaps in the terrain
as a surface "lee low" forms in the northeastern gulf due to the
northerly flow aloft. These winds will decrease on Tuesday as the
upper ridge slides eastward. For inland areas winds will be
fairly light, and there could be some patchy late night and
morning fog for some areas. The cloud cover forecast becomes a bit
difficult with the ridge axis sliding eastward, allowing some high
or even mid level clouds into the area.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2) (today
through Tuesday evening)
above average temperatures will continue today associated with
strong warm air advection ahead of an occluding front originating
from 30n. Downsloped areas could see highs today approaching 50.

Light rain is currently occurring across the kuskokwim delta and
will gradually diminish today as the front weakens over interior
regions. Scattered showers are possible through Tuesday over
the southwest mainland, with more seasonal temperatures likely as
the southerly flow weakens ahead of a ridge.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
(today through Tuesday evening)
a strong ~950mb low is currently centered over the western bering
and is bringing storm force winds and hurricane gusts to the
western aleutians this morning. Winds are expected to diminish to
gales by this afternoon, however storm force winds will continue
through this evening over the central bering as the low will
continue to slightly strengthen aided by divergence in the left
exit region of a strong upper jet. Given this fast upper level
flow, the entire system will quickly depart to the north with sub
gales and lower seas expected Tuesday.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
Gulf of alaska... Expect generally benign conditions, with winds
diminishing and seas subsiding as pressure builds.

Bering sea... Gale force winds will diminish through Wednesday with
high pressure building across the eastern bering Thursday.

Confidence is increasing with periods of southerly gale force
winds over the bering sea and aleutians Thursday through Saturday.

Long term forecast (days 4 through 7)
Southcentral: high pressure will be entrenched across the
mainland through the end of the week. Confidence that a shortwave
will traverse the bering strait Friday and work to flatten the
ridge is increasing. Weak southerly flow will help to promote some
showers along the alaska range and clouds locally. Much of
southcentral will remain dry with temperatures remaining in the
mid upper 40s and overnight lows flirting with freezing, keeping
the trend of well above normal temperatures well into the weekend
and beyond.

Southwest bering: high pressure will dominate the weather pattern
through the end of the week. The aforementioned shortwave sliding
across alaska will bring a mix of rain and snow to the king
salmon dillingham to rainy pass corridor and along the kuskokwim
mountains. A series of fronts will bring active weather across the
western and central aleutians mid week and again leading into the
weekend.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... High wind warning 187.

Marine... Hurricane force 413.

Storm force 411 412.

Gales 414.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Jpw
southcentral alaska... Bl
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kvp ap
marine long term... Ss


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 7 mi50 min 39°F 32°F1024 hPa
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 82 mi44 min 44°F 33°F1024.1 hPa (+0.0)
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 83 mi50 min 41°F1024 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK4 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair45°F32°F61%1024.1 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK4 mi51 minVar 410.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F33°F61%1023.8 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi51 minNW 310.00 miFair45°F30°F58%1023.9 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK12 mi48 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F34°F69%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from ANC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6E8SE16
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S11S6E3E3E5N44
1 day agoS13
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SE11SE7SE10SE7E4E5NW5NW6
2 days ago4SE8CalmCalmS4S6S6S64SE3CalmNE63CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW8NW34CalmN4

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
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Mon -- 02:07 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:13 AM AKDT     2.92 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:45 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:45 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:54 AM AKDT     31.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:40 PM AKDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:27 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:34 PM AKDT     29.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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29.124.518.411.75.934.39.717.525.130.231.729.825.319.112.15.51.10.33.910.818.725.128.6

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.