Sunday, April30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point MacKenzie, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 10:07PM Sunday April 30, 2017 8:42 AM AKDT (16:42 UTC) Moonrise 7:29AMMoonset 12:23AM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 409 Am Akdt Sun Apr 30 2017
.small craft advisory tonight and Monday...
Today..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
Tonight..E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
Mon..E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
Mon night..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue through Wed..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point MacKenzie, AK
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location: 61.23, -150.03     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 301326
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
526 am akdt Sun apr 30 2017

Analysis and upper levels
The central aleutians has an upper level closed low just east
atka, and is vertically stacked through the lower levels. This
feature is reflected at the surface with a 988 mb low located over
the central bering with an associated front extending eastward
before crossing through the eastern aleutians this morning. This
synoptic feature is bringing gusty small-craft southeasterly winds
accompanied by stratus/rain through the aforementioned region.

The winds on the backside of this low pressure system are
predominantly all westerly, and reflected with the surface
observations along the chain this morning.

Meanwhile, the northern gulf has a shortwave pushing onshore, and
the middleton radar imagery is showing a large swath of rain
spreading into the northern coastal communities. The anchorage
bowl will remain downsloped drier conditions through the rest of
the weekend. The extensive cloud cover from the shortwave entering
the northern gulf is moderating the temperatures along the
eastern kenai peninsula northward through prince william sound,
keeping them in the lower to mid 40's. While farther inland areas
are receiving mid-high clouds streaming from the gulf with high
temperatures will remain in the 50's.

Model discussion
The models continue in good agreement with large synoptic features
through the weekend. The southwest alaska region has a frontal
boundary sweeping through this afternoon before falling apart as
it moves inland. The broad low pressure over the eastern bering
and aleutians remains almost stationary before phasing in with a
north pacific low by Tuesday morning. While the northern gulf has
a ridge building in briefly with an upstream front moving into the
gulf by Sunday evening. The next major north pacific low pressure
system tracks to the lower gulf by Tuesday afternoon. The GFS was
the preferred model of choice up to this point, but the models
are struggling with the timing/strength of this next system. The
nam seems to be the outlier with a faster trend, and the gfs,
ecmwf, and canadian solutions are in better agreement. Therefore,
the forecast confidence starts out above average, but diminishes
with this next system entering the gulf by Tuesday afternoon time-
frame.

Aviation
Panc... Looks to remain under the influence ofVFR conditions. The
only issue will be with the increase of the southerly turnagain
arm winds streaming into the airport this afternoon through the
early evening hours. Look for the winds to weaken by late Sunday
evening time-frame.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The sounding this morning indicates steep lapse rates and dry air all
the way to 700 mb. As a result, while radar indicates decent
echoes and mid-level moisture, no precipitation is currently
reaching the ground. Convective resolving models such as the hrrr
indicate the possibility of another round of convective showers
developing across the susitna valley this afternoon and evening.

It is likely that more moisture will be available in the susitna
valley where downsloping and lower level drying will be more
limited.

A front in the southwest corner of the gulf of alaska will move
northeastward quickly today towards the northern gulf coast. This
front will support gusty east winds first across kodiak island
and then through local gaps as it approaches the mainland tonight.

While some gusts are initially anticipated in anchorage this
evening, turnagain arm gap winds are expected to eventually bend
towards the south tonight due to lower pressure in the south.

Perpendicular flow should limit precipitation across the west
kenai peninsula and anchorage bowl. However, if lapse rates remain
as steep and saturated as models indicate above the mountain
tops, some spillover showers are possible in the anchorage bowl
tonight into tomorrow morning. &&

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
The trough rotating from the alaska peninsula, across bristol bay
into southwest alaska will increase showers across the area this
afternoon and evening. Additionally, as the trough rotates
through, easterly winds will increase with the strongest winds
through gaps and passes in the aleutian range. These easterly
winds will lead to downsloping in the lee of the mountains and the
development of a small rain shadow where showers are sparser.

Although showers will become less organized tonight once the
trough is past, they will pick up again Monday afternoon and
evening as the presence of the cool upper low along the alaska
peninsula keeps the atmosphere unstable. Diurnal shower activity
will diminish somewhat Tuesday as the upper low swings south in
response to a very strong low tracking into the gulf.

Short term forecast bering sea/aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The broad low complex centered along and north of the central and
eastern aleutians will gradually fill as it drifts east to be
centered over the alaska peninsula tonight. Ridging will build
over the western aleutians Monday then shift east to the central
aleutians and central bering Tuesday and Tuesday night as a low
pressure system approaches and tracks into the western aleutians.

The upper low of the alaska peninsula will drop weaken and south
Tuesday as a very strong low tracks into the gulf.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
There is fair agreement amongst the models of a deep low moving
into the gulf around Tuesday evening. However, they are struggling
with the intensity of the low which could be the difference
between a gale force low and a storm force low. For now there is
higher confidence in the low remaining gale force. Regardless,
this system looks to bring rain to areas around southcentral
alaska into Thursday, with the heaviest for the north gulf coast.

Meanwhile ridging will have moved in over the bering with another
system trying to approach the aleutians from the west, but being
largely held at bay by the ridge.

Afc watches/warnings/advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gales 119 125 130 131.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Pd
southcentral alaska... Eln
southwest alaska/bering sea/aleutians... Jr
long term... Dk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 7 mi43 min NE 1 G 2.9 39°F 37°F1008.7 hPa (+0.0)
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 82 mi43 min N 8 G 11 40°F 39°F1008.2 hPa (-0.4)
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 83 mi43 min 46°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK4 mi50 minN 010.00 miOvercast39°F30°F73%1008.7 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK4 mi50 minESE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F28°F62%1008.3 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi50 minN 010.00 miOvercast40°F28°F65%1008.3 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK12 mi1.7 hrsN 010.00 miOvercast40°F29°F66%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from ANC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NW4NW5NW5N454W6W5SW6S7S8S7S6SE7SE8SE8S6S7E3CalmS4S6E4
1 day agoCalmN3N6N4NW4NE3SE8
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2 days agoCalmW3W3NE3NW3NW4NW6N5N6SW7S8S8S7S6S6S5S3S5S5SW4SW4CalmCalmSW4

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:22 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:59 AM AKDT     3.71 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:52 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:29 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:33 AM AKDT     32.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:26 PM AKDT     -1.84 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:03 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:25 PM AKDT     30.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2923.817.410.95.73.75.912.120.227.531.83228.823.116.18.82.4-1.4-1.13.711.720.427.130.4

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:22 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:11 AM AKDT     3.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:52 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:29 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:21 AM AKDT     31.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:45 PM AKDT     -1.91 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:03 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:37 PM AKDT     30.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
28.423.617.511.36.23.45.413.422.929.231.731.32822.716.49.84-0.5-1.73.112.220.626.229.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.