Monday, July23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point MacKenzie, AK

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Sunrise 5:09AMSunset 11:02PM Monday July 23, 2018 3:23 AM AKDT (11:23 UTC) Moonrise 5:57PMMoonset 12:14AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 315 Pm Akdt Sun Jul 22 2018
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain beginning overnight.
Mon..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Mon night..E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Tue..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point MacKenzie, AK
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location: 61.23, -150.03     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 230035
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
435 pm akdt Sun jul 22 2018

Analysis and upper levels
The upper level ridge has shifted east such that its main axis
covers eastern alaska and the yukon territory with a spur ridge
running from the wrangell saint elias mountains, west-northwest
across interior alaska and out to the seward peninsula. A trough
extending from an upper level low in the bering stretches
southeast across the alaska peninsula and into the western gulf. A
diffuse frontal system out ahead of the trough is spreading
clouds, breezy southeasterly winds and areas of light rain across
the southwest alaska coast. Further inland, clouds are more
limited with easterly winds increasing through the gaps and passes
in the alaska and aleutian ranges. A portion of the front further
to the south and supported by a surface low south of the alaska
peninsula, stretches across kodiak island and slowly approaching
the southern kenai peninsula. Over southcentral alaska warm, dry
weather continues with breezy south to southeasterly winds
increasing in the copper river basin this afternoon.

Model discussion
Aside from continued challenges handling the details of the
stratus under the ridge, models remain in good synoptic agreement
through midweek.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions are expected. Southerly winds increase
Monday afternoon and evening.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
We're still on track with the upper level ridge currently in place
from the eastern gulf of alaska into the eastern interior shifting
east across the panhandle into the yukon territory. The upper and
surface low over the eastern bering sea with a trough across the
alaska peninsula will push east. The surface low consolidates
south of the alaska peninsula by Monday morning. This ushers in
moist southeast flow from kodiak island to western prince william
sound. As the low remains south and west of kodiak island through
Tuesday, we don't expect a good push of moisture north of the
chugach mountains or into the susitna valley or copper river
basin. Although enough moisture and slightly cooler conditions
will take the copper river basin out of the red flag threat by
Tuesday. Overall expect cloudy wet conditions from kodiak island
to western prince william sound with cloudier cooler conditions
across the cook inlet region into the susitna valley.

Fire weather
The main concern today remains the copper river basin. The surface
and upper high will shift east as discussed above, and the low
moving to south of the alaska peninsula will spread moisture east. The
relative humidity, temperatures and wind in the basin will be
very close to red flag criteria this afternoon and likely Monday
afternoon. As we move into Tuesday, more moisture will keep the
minimum rh above red flag criteria. The concern is the typical
south and southeast wind, particularly along and near the copper
river and gap driven areas, coming down off the mountains, thus
lowering the rh. Considering these factors, and the hot dry
conditions of the last few days, we will keep the red flag up
through Monday.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (through Wednesday)
A longwave upper trough will continue to dominate the mainland
through the forecast period bringing cloudier and cooler weather
with periods of rain. A shortwave trough rotating around the base
of the upper low will continue to swing north across the sw
mainland tonight bringing showers to the kuskokwim delta and
bristol bay areas. The trough will also increase the pressure
gradient across the area leading to strong southeasterly winds
along the coast and through gaps in the aleutian mountain range
tonight.

As the upper trough digs further south, a secondary shortwave will
swing across the area tomorrow continuing the strong southeasterly
winds while tapping into a bit more moisture and spreading rain
across most of the region, with heaviest amounts seen on the
windward side of the mountain ranges due to strong strong
orographic ascent. The upper low will slowly drift south into the
north pacific by Tuesday and Wednesday while continuing to pump
moisture up into the SW mainland. Precipitation will stay focused
mainly over the mountains as downsloping will tend to dry out the
lower elevation locations, though intermittent showers will still
pass through.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (through Wednesday)
The bering and aleutians will be in between a slowly retreating
upper low to the east a building high amplitude ridge to the
west. The low will continue rain showers over the eastern half of
the area through tomorrow while drier NW flow develops over the
central bering bringing a stop to the rain and maybe a few breaks
in the clouds. Out west, a strong westerly jet riding over the top
of the upper ridge will tap into a decent moisture fetch bringing
a narrow band of rain to the western aleutian chain, with
occasional periods of heavy rain on Monday. As the ridge amplifies
and noses into the western bering aleutians, rain will shift east
while strong warm air advection will push in underneath the
ridge. 850 mb temps will increase to about 15c by Tuesday leading
to strong low level inversions and widespread dense fog. Fog looks
to persist over attu shemya and area waters through at least the
middle of the week.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
The longwave pattern beginning Wednesday is a longwave trough
extending through mainland alaska and across the alaska peninsula
with a low anchoring the trough south of the alaska peninsula. On
either side of the trough is ridging with the stronger ridge to
the west. This setup should remain through the end of the week
which would bring southerly flow and rain to the southern
mainland with the majority of the rain along the north gulf coast.

There is more uncertainty amongst the models heading toward the
weekend, but the general consensus is of a low flattening out the
ridge over the western aleutians and tracking into the bering. At
the same time the alaska peninsula low would diminish and ridging
over the eastern gulf would intensify through the weekend.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Fire weather... Red flag warning 141.

Synopsis and model discussion... Jr
southcentral alaska... Sa
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Kvp
long term... Dk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 7 mi41 min NE 4.1 G 4.1
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 82 mi41 min E 2.9 G 4.1
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 83 mi53 min 60°F1025.2 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK4 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair57°F54°F90%1023.7 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK4 mi30 minNE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F53°F84%1023.3 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi30 minNNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F54°F87%1023.1 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK12 mi87 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F57°F100%1022.9 hPa

Wind History from ANC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S4CalmS3S4W6SW844W4NW5NW6NW7W9NW5NW5W4SW4SW6W7W4SE11
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmE3E5CalmNW43W5NW7W7NW6NW7NW5W6NW5W5W4SW3SW8W6SW6SW7SW6
2 days agoCalmW4CalmCalmCalmSW34W5NW4353W5NW3N4NW5CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
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Mon -- 02:14 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:22 AM AKDT     26.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:09 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:08 AM AKDT     3.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:48 PM AKDT     24.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:55 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:00 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:24 PM AKDT     8.91 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
12.417.221.925.226.726.524.721.316.310.65.83.64.98.914.118.922.324.124.623.520.616.311.99.2

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:14 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:34 AM AKDT     27.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:09 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:29 AM AKDT     1.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM AKDT     26.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:55 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:00 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:40 PM AKDT     6.63 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1014.61923.426.626.824.520.716.511.86.21.71.85.610.716.822.826.12623.519.916.111.87.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.