Monday, September24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Point MacKenzie, AK

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What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 7:52PM Monday September 24, 2018 10:01 AM AKDT (18:01 UTC) Moonrise 6:23PMMoonset 4:57AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 345 Am Akdt Mon Sep 24 2018
.small craft advisory today...
Today..E wind increasing to 25 kt by late morning, then diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 4 ft, then subsiding to 2 ft in the late afternoon. Rain.
Tonight through Tue night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
Wed..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Point MacKenzie, AK
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location: 61.23, -150.03     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 241230
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
430 am akdt Mon sep 24 2018

Analysis and upper levels
An upper level low over bristol bay is still the driving force
for much of the weather throughout mainland alaska. A surface
front stems from the low spreading across the alaska peninsula and
western gulf of alaska. This front, in combination with a jet max
skirting the eastern aleutians, is creating a band of increased
vorticity and instability along the alaska peninsula. As the low
moves north and east, significant rainfall is occurring over
bristol bay and has arrived in southcentral. Radar shows
significant stratiform rain throughout southcentral and bristol
bay with some isolated areas of heavy rain near dillingham and
stuyahok. Heavy showers have also been popping up across the akpen
overnight, some of which have produced a few lightning strikes
east of king salmon. Gusty winds have begun to pick back up
through turnagain arm as the front approaches the southern
coastline and the pressure gradient intensifies along the terrain.

Satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover throughout the
bering and southcentral with a slight dry slot trailing behind the
front.

With calmer winds and clearer skies yesterday afternoon,
anchorage was able to set yet another high temperature record. The
high temperature of 61 degrees tied the previous record set in
1965.

Model discussion
Models are relatively consistent in regards to the placement of
the low over bristol bay as it moves farther inland through the
first 24 hours. Synoptically there is good agreement through the
period especially in regards to the front moving into the western
bering and another front moving into the southern gulf of alaska
on Wednesday. One major discrepancy is in regards to the
development of a closed low in the southern gulf of alaska. The
gfs has the low developing Wednesday morning while the NAM and ec
have yet to come to a similar solution.

Aviation
Panc... Llws is still likely this morning with a variable surface
wind under a strong low-level southeasterly jet aloft. These
gusty southeasterly winds may mix down to the surface at times
early this morning and impact the airport complex. Llws is
expected to abate by midday as the front passes and surface winds
shift to the south. Following the frontal passage, southerly winds
will increase with gusts between 35 and 40 knots this afternoon
and evening.VFR conditions should also persist through the day;
however, there is the possibility of cloud heights dropping below
5,000ft with the frontal passage.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
The forecast for today's storm, with widespread rain and wind
expected across southcentral, is pretty much on track. Guidance
has backed off on the strength of winds behind the occluded front,
so have trended just a bit weaker with southerly winds this
afternoon and evening. The gusty winds will persist through
tonight, so despite the cold air advection, temperatures will
remain elevated overnight with a well mixed boundary layer.

Precipitation will linger along the mountains tonight, with snow
levels likely dropping to 4000 feet or lower. Both winds and
precipitation will then gradually come to an end on Tuesday.

Tuesday night still looks on track to be one of the coldest nights
of the season. While there may be a few lingering clouds over
interior southcentral, it looks like most areas will be largely
cloud free. Thus, have trended downward with minimum temperatures,
with nearly all of southcentral expected to bottom out in the 20s
to 30s Wednesday morning.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
A batch of unsettled weather has pushed into southwest alaska in
association with an occluded front. This system will continue to
steer moist air into the region and into the interior. This is a
fast moving system, so expect the precipitation to taper off
Tuesday and Wednesday will be relatively dry. In the wake of the
frontal passage, colder air will advect into the region.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 through 3)
Cyclonic flow will continue to influence the bering and the
aleutians this forecast period. Embedded shortwave energy will
propagate around the upper low bringing intermittent showers. The
next organized front is anticipated late Tuesday which will push
eastward along the chain.

.Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Wednesday night through
Sunday)...

Wednesday night will start out with a front associated with a
north pacific low moving northwestward, spreading rain across
kodiak and the alaska peninsula. The models are trending a bit
further northeast with the northern edge of the precipitation
shield as compared with yesterday's runs. As such they're now
suggesting the rain spreads across much of bristol bay, and
eventually northwestward across the kuskokwim delta, though the ec
and GFS are about 18 hours apart as to when that rain makes it
into the kuskokwim delta. Thus, the differences between the models
still leave significant uncertainty as to the specifics of when
and how much rain falls in any one place in southwest alaska. On
Friday through Sunday, the trailing front behind the parent low
lingers along or off the coast, gradually drifting westward away
from mainland alaska by Sunday. The presence of the front should
mean a sustained period of gusty southeast winds across southwest
alaska Friday and Saturday.

For southcentral, the front and associated precipitation over
kodiak will continue there into Friday, though the heaviest rain
should be winding down by Friday morning. During the day Thursday,
the rain will overspread the southern half of the kenai peninsula
and up the coast to about the seward area before beginning to
diminish and retreat southwestward Thursday night. High pressure
over the interior will hold strong and keep anchorage and points
north and east dry throughout the entire long-term forecast
period, though Thursday now looks to be a cloudier day than it
looked like in the models yesterday.

Temperature-wise, the entire long-term forecast will feature a
warming trend. Behind the front, much warmer air will move into
southern alaska Friday through Sunday, which will help support
well above average afternoon highs, though the longer nights and
mainly clear skies will still support some chilly nights for
lower elevation locations as inversions likely set up each night.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning... 119 125 130 131 132 138 139 140 141 160
351 352.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ra tm
southcentral alaska... Sb
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ps
long term... Jw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 7 mi38 min NW 6 G 8 51°F 55°F1001.3 hPa
NKTA2 - 9455760 - Nikiski, AK 82 mi32 min ESE 14 G 18 53°F 54°F999.2 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 83 mi38 min 54°F1002.5 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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S6

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK4 mi69 minNNW 1110.00 miOvercast51°F44°F77%1001.7 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK4 mi69 minVar 510.00 miOvercast53°F45°F74%1001.6 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi69 minNW 910.00 miLight Rain50°F46°F86%1001 hPa
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK12 mi2.1 hrsNW 810.00 miOvercast51°F46°F86%1001.6 hPa

Wind History from ANC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9
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S8S10SW7S7SE3S7W95NE8CalmE4SE14
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NW6N85N13
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1 day agoSE10SE10
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2 days agoSE3E4S5S4SW6W4W6CalmCalmN3CalmCalmNE5E5NE3CalmSE14
G22
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G18
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SE8SE10SE9
G25
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G22

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.