Thursday, July20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Big Lake, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:02AMSunset 11:09PM Thursday July 20, 2017 6:31 PM AKDT (02:31 UTC) Moonrise 1:46AMMoonset 7:29PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 335 Pm Akdt Thu Jul 20 2017
Tonight..E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun through Mon..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Big Lake, AK
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location: 61.36, -149.84     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 210100
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
500 pm akdt Thu jul 20 2017

Analysis and upper levels
There is an upper level low in the southwest gulf of alaska that
is moving towards the southeast. An associated surface low is
southeast of kodiak island. The front is stretched east-to-west
across the northern gulf into kodiak island. An upper level high
is over most of the bering sea, and building into southern alaska
from the west. Only a few showers remain over the mainland of
southern alaska this ridge builds in. There is an upper level low
over the central aleutians that is moving rapidly southeast.

Model discussion
The numerical models are in good agreement today. The GFS and nam
were mostly used for the afternoon forecast package. Forecast
confidence is higher than normal.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions will persist. Some breezy southeast winds
are possible this evening, otherwise winds will be light.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
Conditions will continue to improve across much of southcentral
alaska this evening, as the front over the northern gulf weakens
and retreats southward over the central gulf by Friday morning.

Residual cloud cover will linger over much of the area through
the overnight hours tonight, before an upper level ridge builds
into the region and supports gradually clearing skies and warming
temperatures Friday. Some diurnal showers could form Friday
afternoon evening along the alaska range and talkeetna mountains,
but generally rainfall will be limited. By Saturday however,
mostly clear and warmer conditions could aide in the development
of some isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon evening along the
northeast alaska range and talkeetna mountains.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2)
With the ridge continuing its march inland, upper level heights
will build and expect a distinct warming trend. Residual mid level
moisture will fuel afternoon evening convection over the western
alaska range and lower kuskokwim river. Along the coast,
inversions will hold up. Patchy fog is expected to materialize at
nunivak island and push eastward.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 2)
The synoptic pattern features a high amplitude ridge over the
bering sea and a low over adak. As time elapses, the low will
rapidly push southeast. The high will be the dominate feature this
forecast period. Stable conditions anticipated as the warm air
moves over the cold water. Expect mild dry conditions with areas
of marine stratus and fog.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
At the start of next week the synoptic set up for the southern
mainland will be under the influence of troughs moving inland from
the bering strait. Models are honing in on a similar solution for
Monday and Tuesday, bringing a significant fast paced shortwave
across the southwest coast early Monday. Southwesterly flow at
the lower levels will keep a moist profile near the surface. This
moisture combined with ample diurnal heating will prime the
environment for showers to readily develop along wave.

Thunderstorms are also a possibility, however the timing of the
wave is still uncertain so will leave mention out of the forecast
until there is better model run consistency. This first wave
traverses across all of southcentral by early Tuesday. This first
system paves the way for the next wave which arrives along the
southwest coast early Tuesday. This wave progresses just as quick
across the region, although it looks like it dives more to the
south.

To the west across the bering and aleutians, the ridge pattern
over the western water amplifies into the middle of next week
keeping a drier pattern across the western bering aleutians with
areas of fog developing under a stable air mass. The eastern and
central bering will see a mix of weather as this area stays under
the influence of both the upper low and ridge.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale 138.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Bl
southcentral alaska... Tp
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ps
long term... Kh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 9 mi56 min SW 8.9 G 9.9 66°F 58°F1011.9 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 88 mi56 min 56°F
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 92 mi42 min WSW 3.9 G 3.9 55°F 54°F1014.7 hPa (+0.0)51°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK7 mi94 minW 410.00 miOvercast70°F48°F46%1011 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi39 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast67°F51°F57%1011.4 hPa
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK14 mi39 minS 910.00 miOvercast66°F48°F54%1011.8 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK16 mi39 minSSE 13 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F51°F61%1011.4 hPa
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK17 mi36 minW 510.00 miOvercast65°F51°F61%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from AED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW7SW7SW8SW7SW8W4W4SW7
1 day agoN9NW7W5NW8N9CalmW5CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5S4
2 days agoNW3SW4Calm--CalmW4NW5CalmCalmN3CalmNW7N7CalmN4NW7NW9NW8NW9NW6NW3NW5NW6N8

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:47 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:26 AM AKDT     29.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:03 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:29 AM AKDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:37 PM AKDT     27.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:27 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:07 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:49 PM AKDT     6.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
9.815.121.526.829.529.426.822.61710.64.81.11.15.111.718.724.126.927.225.421.917.111.97.8

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:47 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:40 AM AKDT     29.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:03 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:54 AM AKDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:43 PM AKDT     28.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:27 PM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:06 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.71420.725.528.629.126.52216.711.46.41.5-0.62.89.816.822.827.12825.621.416.612.17.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.