Saturday, May26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Big Lake, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 4:42AMSunset 11:10PM Friday May 25, 2018 8:22 PM AKDT (04:22 UTC) Moonrise 4:55PMMoonset 3:39AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 535 Pm Akdt Fri May 25 2018
Tonight..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
Sat..E wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue through Wed..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Big Lake, AK
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location: 61.36, -149.84     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 260046
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
446 pm akdt Fri may 25 2018

Analysis and upper levels
A broad upper level trough stretches from just south of the ak
peninsula into the gulf, bringing widespread cloud cover and
rainfall to much of the gulf coast today. This trough has largely
remained far enough to the south to limit any cloud cover to just
thin high level clouds to the anchorage bowl and matanuska valley.

Further north over the susitna valley and kuskokwim valley skies
have remained mostly sunny today, allowing for the development of
some diurnal rain showers to begin to developing. Over the bering
sea, the remnants of the easterly wave that brought rainfall from
the southwest mainland into the pribilof islands since yesterday
is beginning to diminish as high pressure from the bering sea
begins to move in. While this ridge is allowing for overall
diminishing clouds, widespread low stratus has developed under the
ridge and has spread throughout a majority of the bering sea.

Model discussion
Model agreement remains generally good through this weekend with
both the location and strength of the thermal trough that will
move through the south mainland this weekend. In particular, there
is increasing agreement that this trough will spread even further
southward into the chugach, allowing for chances for thunderstorms
brought further southward, including into mountains surrounding
the anchorage bowl. Model agreement is also very good with the
timing of the next low to push through the bering for late this
weekend. In general forecast confidence for most of the area is
above normal.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions will persist through Saturday with the
primary concern being the timing and intensity of turnagain arm
winds moving into the area this evening. There is stronger down-
inlet flow that yesterday which should prevent these winds from
developing as strong as they did on Thursday, however likely not
strong enough to limit them from moving into town at all. Winds
are then expected to remain light and variable for Saturday as the
pressure gradient along the gulf coast weakens.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 and 2)
A decaying surface trough extending from marmot bay south of
prince william sound will continue to drift slowly westward
throughout the evening hours. The widespread showers associated
with this trough will lessen Saturday morning as a drier,
offshore flow develops. At the upper levels, a building ridge
over southwest alaska will shift the thermal trough currently in
place over central alaska south of the alaska range. This sagging
trough, combined with daytime surface heating, will build the
convective potential over the region. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over the talkeetna
and alaska ranges Saturday afternoon and evening, with the
chugach and kenai ranges getting in on the action Sunday afternoon
and evening. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is not out of the
question for the anchorage bowl and the mat- su valleys late
Sunday as a northeasterly steering current aloft could drive cells
developing off the mountains into the valleys.

The threat for showers and thunderstorms diminishes on Monday as
westerly flow develops ahead of the next trough. This will usher
in more maritime air, inhibiting convective potential.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 3)
Diurnal convection will focus along a weak thermal trough from the
kuskokwim valley to bristol bay this afternoon and evening.

Maintained a slight chance of thunderstorms, but don't think
conditions are quite unstable. This is evident by the lack of
vertical growth in clouds as indicated by the relatively warm
infrared satellite cloud top temperatures. The thermal trough will
strengthen on Saturday, so expect an increase in both showers and
thunderstorms. The storm motion will be from north to south on
Saturday, so any thunderstorms which do form in the more unstable
interior portions of bristol bay may drift into the inner portion
of the bay, between dillingham and king salmon.

Meanwhile, cooler and more stable air will advect southward along
the east side of a ridge over the bering sea. This air mass will
move into the kuskokwim delta Saturday then continue eastward
across southwest alaska on Sunday. This will confine any showers
and thunderstorms to right along the west side of the alaska range
on Sunday. The ridge will move overhead on Monday leading to a dry
mostly sunny day across most of the region.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 3)
A ridge of high pressure will continue to build eastward across
the bering sea and aleutians tonight through Saturday resulting in
benign conditions. Cold advection on the front side of the ridge
will lead to gusty northerly winds across the far eastern bering
sea southward to the eastern aleutians and southern alaska
peninsula. This ridge will be transitory, continuing on to the
eastern bering sea on Sunday.

A fairly weak frontal system will move to the western aleutians
Saturday night. However, a digging trough over the northwest
pacific will quickly lead to a strengthening upper level jet
and surface cyclogenesis. This will serve to both invigorate the
frontal system along the aleutians and track the new stronger
storm to the central aleutians on Sunday. Have trended stronger
with winds in the new forecast, with gales likely across the
central to eastern aleutians Sunday night into Monday. The larger
frontal system will continue eastward across the bering sea
through Monday, bringing widespread rain and winds to the entire
region.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
Beginning memorial day, models are in good agreement in the
overall longwave pattern with a ridge of high pressure over
southcentral while a low pressure system is located over the
western bering with its associated front moving east across the
central and eastern bering sea. Therefore, there is decent
confidence that most of mainland alaska will see pleasant weather
for the holiday with the exception of diurnally driven convection
over higher terrain and the northern susitna valley.

The frontal system out west looks to move over the west coast and
akpen by Monday night spreading a wide swath of rain and wind across
the area. The front looks to shear apart and weaken by the time
it crosses the alaska range and moves into southcentral Tuesday as
it runs into an area of high pressure to the east. Typical
upslope windward locations along the gulf coast and kodiak should
still see precipitation with downslope areas seeing lighter precip
or even none at all. Looking past mid-week, there is very little
model consensus in the sensible weather at the surface with models
becoming completely out of phase with each other by the end of
the week (trough over ridge). Thus, the long term forecast stuck
with the wpc solution which keeps an upper level low over the
bering and unsettled weather over most of the region.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Dek
southcentral alaska... Tm
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Seb
long term... Kvp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 9 mi53 min W 1.9 G 2.9 53°F 46°F1003.3 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 88 mi53 min 44°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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G5
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anchorage, Elmendorf Air Force Base, AK7 mi27 minSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds56°F36°F48%1002.6 hPa
Anchorage, Merrill Field Airport, AK10 mi30 minSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F37°F47%1003 hPa
Anchorage, Lake Hood Seaplane Base, AK14 mi30 minS 1010.00 miFair53°F36°F52%1003.4 hPa
Anchorage, Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, AK16 mi30 minSSE 1210.00 miOvercast53°F37°F55%1003 hPa
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK17 mi27 minWSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds55°F37°F51%1004 hPa

Wind History from AED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE13SE9NE4NE6E5N5CalmCalmNW9CalmCalmCalmN3CalmN6NW7W8W7SW8SW8SW9SW9SW6SW6
1 day agoNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmN5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmW6SW8W3W3W8SW10SW9SW4
G14
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2 days agoSE6CalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmN7W4W4NE6N6NE8NE4NW5NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage (Knik Arm), Alaska
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Anchorage (Knik Arm)
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:46 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 04:50 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:38 AM AKDT     29.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:03 PM AKDT     1.74 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:27 PM AKDT     27.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:16 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:08 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.89.515.521.626.328.829.127.222.916.69.741.73.68.615.12125.127.227.124.720148.4

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Knik Arm, Cook Inlet, Alaska
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:46 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 04:50 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:39 AM AKDT     30.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:21 PM AKDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:11 PM AKDT     28.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:16 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:08 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.66.412.51925.329.530.127.723.318.111.84.800.9612.719.925.928.527.524.119.614.78.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.