Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Van Buren, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 2:45AMSunset 12:11AM Wednesday June 20, 2018 11:34 AM WGST (13:34 UTC) Moonrise 12:43PMMoonset 1:29AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Van Buren, ME
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location: 62.5, -42.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 201321
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
921 am edt Wed jun 20 2018

Synopsis
A cold front from central quebec will approach today, crossing
the north late this afternoon and reaching the downeast coast
overnight. Cooler high pressure will build in from the west on
Thursday then move south of the region on Friday.

Near term through tonight
905 am update... Offshore flow will produce upper 70s to lower
80s for highs for most of the area. The exception is right on
the atlantic coast and outer islands where a southwest wind
will keep highs in the 60s. Further north, have added isolated
thunderstorms with gusty winds with the cold front. SBCAPE is no
more than 300 to 400 j kg under the worst case scenario... With
storms just barely reaching the -20c isotherm. Decent dcape
values and a bit of an inverted v sounding structure make gusty
winds with showers and thunderstorms a concern. May be just
enough to take some branches and cause a few power outages. Any
thunderstorms would be mostly in northern aroostook county where
the coincidence of sfc MAX heating and the front occurs. Spc
just added the same area to the general tstorm risk. QPF values
with the front should be under a tenth of an inch. The front
brings a cool down for Thursday with lower humidity and highs
some 5-10 degrees cooler... At least.

Previous discussion...

high pressure will slide to our south today in advance of an
approaching cold front from quebec. The front will reach the st.

John valley by early afternoon and reach the downeast coast
around midnight. The front is expected to have very little
moisture to work with, thus we are expecting nothing more than a
few hundreths of an inch of rainfall with its passage this
afternoon. Despite steeping lapse rates, there will be little in
the way of low level moisture pooling ahead of the front, with
dew points expected to remain in the mid to upper 40s. With very
little in the way of sb cape, decided to leave mention of
thunder out of the forecast. We do mention 30 to 40 percent
chance of showers, mainly north of the katahdin region this
afternoon. Southwest winds will become gusty at times this
morning in advance of the approaching front and we could see a
few gusts reaching 25 to 30 mph across the north and west. High
temperatures across the north are expected to be coolest across
the st. John valley and the warmest temperatures across central
and interior downeast maine where we will see a few readings
reaching the lower 80s. Any showers will tend to diminish this
evening as the front continues to press south across the
downeast coast around midnight. Expect partial clearing from the
north with the passage of the front tonight. Lows will fall
back into the 40s across the north tonight and lower 50s
downeast.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
Whats left of the back edge of cldnss from the cold front movg s
of the gulf of me will be movg sse off the downeast coast
beginning 12z thu. This will leave the rgn with ptly to msly
sunny skies, breezy conditions, with somewhat unseasonably cool
temps with hi temps 6 to 11 deg f below late jun avgs. With msly
clr skies and lgt winds Thu ngt, some radiational cooling is
xpctd coldest NRN vlys xpctd to drop to lows of mid to upper
30s. The shortness of ngt will limit frost potential, with temps
not xpctd to remain at lows long enough for frost to form (at
least based on these fcst lows). Fri will be warmer with ptly to
msly sunny skies and a return SW wind as sfc hi pres moves sse
ovr the gulf of me. The most of mid lvl cldnss will be across
the N as a weak upper lvl S WV tracks ese from cntrl qb into the
nrn maritimes. Fri ngt will be fair and with much milder ovrngt
lows.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Increasing cldnss is xpctd on Sat as both sfc and upper lvl low
pres from the great lks apch, with shwrs movg into the rgn from
srn qb prov late in the day, contg into the ngt and at least
thru Sun and into Sun ngt on an intermittent fashion until the
sfc and upper low move E of our fa with MAX pops in the hi
likely cat. End tmg varies, with varied longer dtmnstc range
models and supporting ensmbls keeping shwrs hanging on into mon
with a slower passage of the upper low. Cnvctv potential looks
low attm, with not much of MUCAPE advertised during this tm
frame, so we held off for now on mentioning any thunder until
we get closer to this event. Certainly by Mon ngt and tue, if
not by Mon day, fair and drier conditions should return as sfc
hi pres from S cntrl can apchs. Overall, temps look to be msly
below avg durg the long range from this vantage point.

Aviation 13z Wednesday through Sunday
Near term:VFR conditions through tonight. Showers will be in
the vicinity of the northern terminals this afternoon along with
gusty southwest winds.

Short to long term:VFR conditions will cont for all TAF sites
thru sat, then lower to MVFR clgs vsbys Sat ngt in shwrs and
possibly to ifr in shwrs on sun.

Marine
Near term: winds seas will remain below SCA levels through
tonight.

Short to long term: no discernible pds of SCA conditions xpctd
thru these ptns of the fcst attm. Went with about 75 to 85 percent
of ww3 WV ht guidance for our fcst WV hts with primary WV pds
msly between 5 and 8 sec.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Duda
short term... Vjn
long term... Vjn
aviation... Duda vjn
marine... Duda vjn


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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.