Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nunam Iqua, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:36AMSunset 11:17PM Sunday May 28, 2017 4:09 PM AKDT (00:09 UTC) Moonrise 7:06AMMoonset 12:23AM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nunam Iqua, AK
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location: 62.62, -164.85     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 282142
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
142 pm akdt Sun may 28 2017

Discussion
Main forecast concern will be fire weather and the potential red
flag issues along the north slopes of the eastern alaska range
over the next 48 hours. The 28 12z deterministic model suite is in
good agreement through 48 hours (Tuesday 12z) with differences in
model guidance thereafter including differences in h850
temperatures as well as the handing of an upper low and its
surface reflection just offshore of the western arctic coast
after 12z Tuesday. The differences in h850 temperatures for the
28 12z run is not quite as severe as previous runs, at least over
mainland alaska. Generally, the differences between the ECMWF and
gfs are h850 temperatures are 4 to 8 degrees celsius over mainland
alaska as well as placement and areal extent of the warmest h850
temperatures. In regards to the upper low and its surface
reflection, the NAM is a bit more aggressive and stronger with it
compared to the GFS and ECMWF who are a bit weaker and slower
moving it east.

Aloft... A sharp upper level trough with two closed lows remains
stretched over the west coast from the chukchi sea south to over
kodiak island. The low over the chukchi sea will gradually shift
east towards the western arctic coast through Tuesday morning.

Meanwhile, the low over kodiak low will move north over the
southwest alaska tonight, then north over the western interior
towards the arctic coast Monday into Tuesday morning. Once it
reaches the arctic coast, it will merge with the old chukchi sea
low Tuesday afternoon. The resulting low will then move north
over the arctic ocean and 80n. There are some differences between
models as noted above regarding the position, strength, and
eventual track. The eastern extend of a ridge of high pressure
over the eastern interior with a ridge axis positioned north to
south over the pacific nw, british columbia, and the yukon
territory will be pushed east Monday into Tuesday as the
aforementioned low moves north over the western interior.

Southerly, chinook flow upstream of the ridge axis is parked over
the alaska range and interior alaska through Monday morning before
being moved east. Once the low moves north, the ridge will build
back over the interior extending west over the alaska west coast.

Despite disagreement among 28 12z model guidance, h850
temperatures will warm (+5c to +8c in the warmest spots) and be
warmer than what we have seen over the last week.

Surface... A weak leeside thermal trough has developed north of the
alaska range and will persist and strengthen on Monday and then
lift north Tuesday. The 28 12z NAM is developing a 1005 mb low
over wainwright Tuesday morning as the upper level low moves
overhead and move offshore as a 1001 mb low Tuesday evening.

However, the GFS and ecwmf paint a weak trough along the north
slope with the GFS eventually developing a weak 1007 mb low
Tuesday evening north of barrow. Meanwhile, high pressure will
build over southern mainland alaska Tuesday and Wednesday.

Arctic coast and brooks range... Expecting a return to low ceilings
and fog later this evening as winds shift from drier, offshore
flow to the easterly flow. Some areas of light freezing drizzle
may accompany the intial surge of low ceilings and fog. Winds
will come a bit along the beaufort sea coast tonight into Monday.

As the aforementioned upper low moves north over the brooks range,
may see up to 0.50" of rain with some snow mixing in at higher
elevations over the central brooks range Tuesday and around 0.10"
of rain north of the brooks range late Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

Eastern and central interior... Leeside thermal trough north of
the alaska range is producing gusty winds along the north slopes
of the alaska range, especially near the alaska range passes.

Gusty south winds will increase slightly Monday as the thermal
trough strengthens. These gusty south winds will weaken once the
trough lifts weakens and lifts north. As the upper low moves
north over the western interior, there will be the potential for
isolated to scattered showers Monday over the central interior and
southeastern brooks range. There will be a brief 6 hour period
late Monday afternoon and early evening where the middle tanana
valley may see a few showers. There is the potential for isolated
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening over the central
interior and along the southeastern brooks range. A warming trend
towards near to slightly above normal temperatures is expected
after Monday once the upper level ridge builds overhead.

Western interior and west coast... It looks to be a rainy, wet
Monday and Monday night from mcgrath north over the middle yukon
valley and south facing slopes of the brooks range, where 24 hour
rainfall accumulations range between 0.25" to 0.75" from 18z
Monday to 18z Tuesday. There is the potential for isolated
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening from the lower yukon
northeast over mcgrath to galena and huslia. Once the ridge of
high pressure builds over the area, thunderstorm potential will be
limited and capped Tuesday through the rest of the week.

Fire weather
Fire weather concerns will increase this week as temperatures
rise, and fuels dry under the influence of wind, warm, and mostly
sunny conditions. The main area of concern will be along the north
slopes of the eastern alaska range, particularly along the
richardson highway from isabel pass north to delta junction.

Minimum rh values are expected to drop into the 20s this afternoon
and Monday. Sustained winds are expected to top out around 25 mph
with gusts to around 40 mph through Monday evening, the strongest
winds will be Monday. Will need to monitor, especially on Monday,
as meteorological conditions locally flirt with red flag
conditions. Meteorological conditions will be similar along the
parks highway north of mckinley park flirting with meteorological
red flag conditions, but fuels are not dry at this time to for
red flag concerns.

Winds will be lower, but breezy over the rest of the interior
with minimum rh values in the 20 to 30 percent range. Temperatures
will gradually warm with daytime highs in the lower to mid 70s by
the middle of the week. At this time fuels are not dry at this
time for red flag concerns, however will have to monitor given the
transitions from a cool wet pattern to warm dry pattern.

Hydrology
Some moderate rainfall from mcgrath north over the middle yukon
valley and to the south facing slopes of the brooks range Monday
and Monday night. 24-hr rainfall accumulations from 18z Monday to
18z Tuesday range from around 0.25" to 0.75". Not expecting any
hydro issues relating to this rainfall.

Afg watches warnings advisories
Brisk wind advisory for pkz240-pkz245.

Lth may 17


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Emmonak, Emmonak Airport, AK21 mi14 minNNW 1410.00 miOvercast50°F43°F77%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from AEM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6W5N4N8N8N6N7N3NW5N6N5N7N3N5N7N7N10N11N10N8N8N9N12N14
1 day agoS8S14
G20
SW13S18
G23
S13S14S6S10S7CalmCalmS6S5S6S6S7S8S6S7S9S8S9W4SW8
2 days agoW15W10W11W9W11SW10SW8SW6SW4S5SE6SE9SE8SE9SE11S12S10
G16
S12S11S13S11S10S10S13
G20

Tide / Current Tables for Kwikluak Pass, Yukon River, Bering Sea, Alaska
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Kwikluak Pass
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Sun -- 12:27 AM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 02:22 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:08 AM AKDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:25 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:07 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:42 AM AKDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:15 PM AKDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:21 PM AKDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.70.40.1-0.1-0.2-00.411.51.81.91.81.51.20.90.50.30.20.30.61.11.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Black, Black River, Bering Sea, Alaska
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Black
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Sun -- 12:25 AM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 01:27 AM AKDT     -0.99 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:21 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:30 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:30 AM AKDT     5.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:11 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:34 PM AKDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:09 PM AKDT     4.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.9-0.9-0.11.22.74.15.25.85.85.24.12.91.8111.52.33.23.94.243.22.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
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Ground Weather Radar Station Nome, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.