Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Copper Harbor, MI
March 19, 2024 6:59 AM EDT (10:59 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:51 AM Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 1:08 PM Moonset 5:03 AM |
LSZ244 /o.con.kmqt.ma.w.0056.000000t0000z-231005t2115z/ 458 Pm Edt Thu Oct 5 2023
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 515 pm edt - .
for the following areas - . Eagle river to manitou island mi - . Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore - . Lake superior from upper entrance to portage canal to manitou island mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border - . Manitou island to point isabelle mi - .
at 457 pm edt, a severe Thunderstorm capable of producing waterspouts was located near brockway mountain, or 28 nm northwest of stannard rock, moving northeast at 40 knots.
hazard - .waterspouts, wind gusts 34 knots or greater, and small hail.
source - .radar indicated.
impact - .waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.
locations impacted include - . Manitou island.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes.
Thunderstorms can produce sudden waterspouts. Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. SEek safe harbor immediately.
&&
lat - .lon 4763 8760 4743 8747 4732 8786 4749 8801 4766 8762 time - .mot - .loc 2057z 241deg 40kt 4745 8781
waterspout - .possible hail - .<.75in wind - .>34kts
for the following areas - . Eagle river to manitou island mi - . Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore - . Lake superior from upper entrance to portage canal to manitou island mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border - . Manitou island to point isabelle mi - .
at 457 pm edt, a severe Thunderstorm capable of producing waterspouts was located near brockway mountain, or 28 nm northwest of stannard rock, moving northeast at 40 knots.
hazard - .waterspouts, wind gusts 34 knots or greater, and small hail.
source - .radar indicated.
impact - .waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.
locations impacted include - . Manitou island.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes.
Thunderstorms can produce sudden waterspouts. Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. SEek safe harbor immediately.
&&
lat - .lon 4763 8760 4743 8747 4732 8786 4749 8801 4766 8762 time - .mot - .loc 2057z 241deg 40kt 4745 8781
waterspout - .possible hail - .<.75in wind - .>34kts
LSZ200
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Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 190822 AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 422 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Off and on light snow showers today, with gusty northwest winds developing by afternoon, especially in the Keweenaw and near Lake Superior.
- Lake-effect snow continuing into Thursday.
- Blustery winds continue into Wednesday.
- Northwest high-end gales and heavy freezing spray expected tonight and Wednesday across central and eastern Lake Superior.
- Another shot for snow comes Thursday night/Friday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Radar imagery this morning showed a wave of isentropically forced precip shifting east through the forecast area. A quick look at webcams show some light snow accumulations on roadways here and there. Snow amounts observed here at our office outside of Negaunee have only measured 0.3 inches. Overnight temperatures have been mild, and most surface observations have been in the 20s.
As we press through the day today, favorable location in relation to the jet streak will support additional snow shower development over mostly the east this morning. Most of the region should see a break in activity this morning, followed by what appears to be dinurally enhanced shower activity as another shortwave within the broad cyclonic aloft pivots through, all before a transition to lake effect snow. Deep moisture under inversions as high as 7k feet should support some good snow showers here and there, but given the cold air really won't move in until tonight, significant accumulations aren't expected. Overall thinking is mostly an inch or less today with the higher amounts being over the east half. Gusty winds will begin developing by late morning/afternoon from west to east. Windiest spots will be the Keweenaw and near Lake Superior, where 30-35 mph gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the northwest winds may gust to 25 mph this afternoon.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 422 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low in the desert sw, a ridge in the western U.S. and a broad 500 mb trough in the east half of the U.S. 00z Wed. The closed low gets kicked out into the southern plains as a shortwave 00z Thu and onto the Gulf Coast 12z Fri as a broad northern branch trough settles into the Great Lakes region. Comparing models of NAM and GFS and ECMWF, 850 mb temperatures fall from -10C to -14C 00z Wed to -16C to -20C 12z Wed which stays that way through 00z Thu and then falls further to 18C to -22C 12z Thu. Warming then takes place 00z Fri, but with Lake Superior being around 2C to 3C, this is definitely enough lake-850 mb delta-t for LES again with northwest flow. Issued winter weather advisory 00z tonight until 18z Wed for Alger, Luce and N.
Schoolcraft due to combo of blowing snow and snow amounts. Snow will be fluffy with inversion heights over the ern cwa up to 6000 feet or so and DGZ has plenty of omega lift in it, so fluffy snow with strong winds will blow it around. Could see 3-5 inches of snow there as well, so thought advisory was warranted. Will also be some lakeshore flooding and minor beach erosion in Alger and Luce Counties and issued a lakeshore flood advisory for this as waves could be as high as 15 feet or so.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb split flow regime with a southern trough in the lower Mississippi River Valley and a northern broad trough across the upper Great Lakes region 12z Fri.
Northern branch troughing remains over the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat with a closed 500 mb low off the Pacific NW coast 12z Sat.
Troughing moves into the western U.S. 12z Sun and into the Rockies 12z Mon. A shortwave kicks out of the trough 12z Tue into the lower Missouri River Valley and becomes negatively tilted and heads towards the upper Great Lakes which could cause a significantly strong storm to move into the area Tue. Temperatures look to be below normal through most of this forecast period with temperatures going to near normal on Monday and Tuesday. Looks like pcpn will be above normal for this forecast period with some snow on Fri, chance of snow on Sun and then rain and snow for Mon into Tue.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Light snow associated with a disturbance has already spread across most of the w and c portions of Upper MI. In its wake, expect VFR to prevail overnight at IWD/CMX/SAW. During today, MVFR cigs should develop at all terminals soon after sunrise. While those cigs are expected to lift to just above 3000ft in the aftn, MVFR cigs may hold on thru the day. Sct -shsn will begin to develop across the area during the day under cyclonic flow. Vis may drop to briefly to MVFR at times. As incoming air mass becomes increasingly colder tonight, lake effect shsn will become more widespread with greater fluctuations in vis btwn IFR and VFR possible. NW winds will be gusty to 25-35kt today into tonight at all terminals, strongest at CMX.
MARINE
Issued at 422 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Next gale event begins this afternoon with northwest winds increasing to 30 knots this morning and then gales up to 45 knots tonight into Wednesday with more cold air and tighter pressure gradient. Gale warning will continue for most of Lake Superior.
Additionally, the combination of cold air and strong winds will also cause heavy freezing spray and a heavy freezing spray warning was issued as well. Winds decrease late Wednesday night, coming in at or below 20 knots the rest of the week before increasing to 20 to 30 knots Friday night and Saturday. Will have to watch a strong storm system for early next week as it approaches from the southwest and could be gales Sunday night into Monday.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ006-007-085.
Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ006-007.
Lake Superior...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Wednesday for LSZ162- 240>251-263>267.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for LSZ240>242.
Gale Warning from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Wednesday for LSZ240>242-263.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ243- 244.
Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ243>251-264>267.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ245>251.
Lake Michigan...
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ221-248-250.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 422 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Off and on light snow showers today, with gusty northwest winds developing by afternoon, especially in the Keweenaw and near Lake Superior.
- Lake-effect snow continuing into Thursday.
- Blustery winds continue into Wednesday.
- Northwest high-end gales and heavy freezing spray expected tonight and Wednesday across central and eastern Lake Superior.
- Another shot for snow comes Thursday night/Friday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Radar imagery this morning showed a wave of isentropically forced precip shifting east through the forecast area. A quick look at webcams show some light snow accumulations on roadways here and there. Snow amounts observed here at our office outside of Negaunee have only measured 0.3 inches. Overnight temperatures have been mild, and most surface observations have been in the 20s.
As we press through the day today, favorable location in relation to the jet streak will support additional snow shower development over mostly the east this morning. Most of the region should see a break in activity this morning, followed by what appears to be dinurally enhanced shower activity as another shortwave within the broad cyclonic aloft pivots through, all before a transition to lake effect snow. Deep moisture under inversions as high as 7k feet should support some good snow showers here and there, but given the cold air really won't move in until tonight, significant accumulations aren't expected. Overall thinking is mostly an inch or less today with the higher amounts being over the east half. Gusty winds will begin developing by late morning/afternoon from west to east. Windiest spots will be the Keweenaw and near Lake Superior, where 30-35 mph gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the northwest winds may gust to 25 mph this afternoon.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 422 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low in the desert sw, a ridge in the western U.S. and a broad 500 mb trough in the east half of the U.S. 00z Wed. The closed low gets kicked out into the southern plains as a shortwave 00z Thu and onto the Gulf Coast 12z Fri as a broad northern branch trough settles into the Great Lakes region. Comparing models of NAM and GFS and ECMWF, 850 mb temperatures fall from -10C to -14C 00z Wed to -16C to -20C 12z Wed which stays that way through 00z Thu and then falls further to 18C to -22C 12z Thu. Warming then takes place 00z Fri, but with Lake Superior being around 2C to 3C, this is definitely enough lake-850 mb delta-t for LES again with northwest flow. Issued winter weather advisory 00z tonight until 18z Wed for Alger, Luce and N.
Schoolcraft due to combo of blowing snow and snow amounts. Snow will be fluffy with inversion heights over the ern cwa up to 6000 feet or so and DGZ has plenty of omega lift in it, so fluffy snow with strong winds will blow it around. Could see 3-5 inches of snow there as well, so thought advisory was warranted. Will also be some lakeshore flooding and minor beach erosion in Alger and Luce Counties and issued a lakeshore flood advisory for this as waves could be as high as 15 feet or so.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb split flow regime with a southern trough in the lower Mississippi River Valley and a northern broad trough across the upper Great Lakes region 12z Fri.
Northern branch troughing remains over the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat with a closed 500 mb low off the Pacific NW coast 12z Sat.
Troughing moves into the western U.S. 12z Sun and into the Rockies 12z Mon. A shortwave kicks out of the trough 12z Tue into the lower Missouri River Valley and becomes negatively tilted and heads towards the upper Great Lakes which could cause a significantly strong storm to move into the area Tue. Temperatures look to be below normal through most of this forecast period with temperatures going to near normal on Monday and Tuesday. Looks like pcpn will be above normal for this forecast period with some snow on Fri, chance of snow on Sun and then rain and snow for Mon into Tue.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Light snow associated with a disturbance has already spread across most of the w and c portions of Upper MI. In its wake, expect VFR to prevail overnight at IWD/CMX/SAW. During today, MVFR cigs should develop at all terminals soon after sunrise. While those cigs are expected to lift to just above 3000ft in the aftn, MVFR cigs may hold on thru the day. Sct -shsn will begin to develop across the area during the day under cyclonic flow. Vis may drop to briefly to MVFR at times. As incoming air mass becomes increasingly colder tonight, lake effect shsn will become more widespread with greater fluctuations in vis btwn IFR and VFR possible. NW winds will be gusty to 25-35kt today into tonight at all terminals, strongest at CMX.
MARINE
Issued at 422 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Next gale event begins this afternoon with northwest winds increasing to 30 knots this morning and then gales up to 45 knots tonight into Wednesday with more cold air and tighter pressure gradient. Gale warning will continue for most of Lake Superior.
Additionally, the combination of cold air and strong winds will also cause heavy freezing spray and a heavy freezing spray warning was issued as well. Winds decrease late Wednesday night, coming in at or below 20 knots the rest of the week before increasing to 20 to 30 knots Friday night and Saturday. Will have to watch a strong storm system for early next week as it approaches from the southwest and could be gales Sunday night into Monday.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ006-007-085.
Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ006-007.
Lake Superior...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Wednesday for LSZ162- 240>251-263>267.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for LSZ240>242.
Gale Warning from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Wednesday for LSZ240>242-263.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ243- 244.
Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ243>251-264>267.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ245>251.
Lake Michigan...
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ221-248-250.
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Airport Reports
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