Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kaktovik, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:51AMSunset 6:20PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 12:26 PM AKDT (20:26 UTC) Moonrise 4:16AMMoonset 5:32PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kaktovik, AK
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location: 70.16, -145.98     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 171228
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
428 am akdt Tue oct 17 2017

Synopsis
Aloft...

a long wave trough stretching from banks island to the bering sea
will progress over mainland alaska Tue night then persist with
h500 heights falling through the end of the week. This means that
snowy conditions will continue through the week, with temperatures
falling through the week to below normal by the end of the week.

A 493dm h500 low just north of banks island will move to 300 nm
north of prudhoe bay as a 994dm low by 4pm wed, and to 100 nm
northwest of barrow as a 996 dm low by 4pm thu, and over the
seward peninsula as a 494dm low by 4pm fri. Will see strong
instability and snow squalls as the cold air associated with this
low moves over the open water north of the arctic coast and west
coast of alaska.

Surface...

a surface low pressure trough extending from st lawrence island
to fairbanks to eagle will persist today, move to ft yukon to
anvik by 4am wed, move to old crow to mcgrath by 4pm Wed and to
eagle to isabell pass by 4am thu. Will see isolated to scattered
snow showers along this feature. Showers will be mixed with rain
showers today along the west coast.

A 990 mb low over banks island will move north. A cold front
stretching from the low to deadhorse will persist through this
evening. Snow along this front will persist into tonight bringing
another 3 inches of snow. SW winds 25g35kt and blowing snow over
zone 204 persist through noon today.

A 998 mb low 300 nm north of barrow will to 60 nm north of barrow
as a 992 mb low by 4pm tue, to atqasuk as a 993 mb low by 4am wed,
then quasi stationary through 4pm Wed as a 999 mb low, and moving
to near kotzebue as a 996 mb low by 4pm thu. A cold front
extending west from this low will move to barrow to CAPE lisburne
by 4pm tue, to atqasuk to anaktuvuk pass to the bering strait by
4am wed, to barrow to bettles to the yukon delta by 4pm wed, to
barrow to arctic village to mcgrath by 4am thu, and then east of
the alcan border by 4pm thu. Expect 4-6 inches of snow with the
low and cold front over zones 201 202 and 205 from this afternoon
through Wed night due to the cold air (with 850 mb temperatures of
-12c to -18c) over the open water. Also expect northwest to
northeast winds gusting to 50 mph in the northwest quadrant of
the low this evening into Wed morning over zones 201 202. Will
see snow showers and north winds 20-30kt along and following the
cold from point hope to the bering strait and st lawrence island
tonight through thu. Will see scattered snow showers spread
inland with the cold front Wed and Thu and could see 1-2 inches
of snow northwest facing slopes the front moves over such as the
western alaska range and north side of the white mtns.

Discussion
Models initialize surface low north of barrow a bit further east
at 06z than surface analysis indicates. The GFS tracks the low a
bit slower and further west than NAM and ecmf through Tue night.

Considering that the low will deepen this morning as it moves over
open water and that the GFS location was better at 06z we favor
the slower and more westerly GFS location of the low through
tonight. After tonight model solutions similar through 4pm wed,
and after that the ecmf is faster in tracking the deep low aloft
southward over the west coast than the NAM and gfs. At this point
favor the slower nam GFS solution as the ecmf moves this feature
very quickly after 4pm wed, and appears to be too quick for this
deep of a feature. This feature will need to be closely watched
for Wed night into Fri as it could cause high surf to vulnerable
locations at shishmaref and along kotzebue sound.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...

high surf zones 201 and 202 from 10pm tonight until 4pm Wed due
to northwest to northeast winds 30 mph gusting to 50 mph and
strong cold air advection. Due to short fetch length do not expect
flooding.

Elevated surf north facing shores zones 207 and 213 Thu and fri,
though still much uncertainty due to uncertainties in surface low
locations Thu and fri. This means chance shishmaref could see high
surf Thu if winds are nw, but if winds are more northerly then
average surf.

Afg watches warnings advisories
High surf advisory for akz201-akz202.

Winter weather advisory for akz201-akz202-akz204-akz205.

Small craft advisory for pkz225-pkz230-pkz240-pkz245-pkz245.

Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz235-pkz240-pkz245.

Gale warning for pkz235.

Jb oct 17


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Barter Island, Barter Island LRRS Airport, AK127 mi34 minE 48.00 miLight Snow21°F18°F88%995.1 hPa

Wind History from ABA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW30
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1 day agoSW7SW8W8SW8SW10SW9SW11SW13SW12SW13SW15W22SW18W22W22
G27
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G33
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2 days agoE15E15E15NE16NE15NE14NE13NE11NE11NE12NE12NE13NE10NE14NE11NE9N9NE9NW3CalmCalmCalmSW3SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Flaxman Island, Alaska
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Flaxman Island
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Tue -- 05:15 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM AKDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:08 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:25 PM AKDT     0.70 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:47 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:31 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:01 PM AKDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.60.50.40.20.1000.10.30.50.60.70.70.60.50.30.20.100.10.20.40.6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Pedro Dome, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.