Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Prudhoe Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 10:16AMSunset 3:45PM Thursday January 17, 2019 12:29 AM AKST (09:29 UTC) Moonrise 11:18AMMoonset 8:03AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ240 Cape Halkett To Flaxman Island- 314 Pm Akst Wed Jan 16 2019
.brisk wind advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..E winds 25 kt.
Thu..E winds 25 kt.
Thu night..E winds 25 kt.
Fri..E winds 20 kt.
Fri night..SE winds 10 kt.
Sat..E winds 10 kt.
Sat night..W winds 15 kt.
Sun..W winds 15 kt.
Mon..W winds 15 kt.
PKZ200 Norton Sound- 333 Pm Akst Wed Jan 16 2019
.brisk wind advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Tonight..E winds 25 kt.
Thu..E winds 15 kt.
Thu night..W winds 15 kt.
Fri..NW winds 15 kt.
Fri night..N winds 15 kt.
Sat..N winds 15 kt.
Sat night..N winds 15 kt.
Sun..N winds 20 kt.
Mon..NE winds 20 kt.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prudhoe Bay, AK
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location: 70.46, -149.44     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 170109
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
409 pm akst Wed jan 16 2019

Synopsis
Near to just above normal temperatures will continue through the
weekend across northern alaska. A weather front just off the west
coast of alaska will move east over the next several days bringing
snow to the west coast and a chance of snow to the interior and
north slope.

Aloft...

a ridge of high pressure stretching north along the west coast of
n america into northern alaska will persist into Fri and then move
north of alaska. A low aloft just north of dawson will remain in
place through Fri am, then expand west over the eastern interior
of alaska Fri through sat. Strong inversions will persist under
the high aloft into fri. As the low aloft expands west on fri
expect flurries and clouds to move west with it and weaken the
inversion some as the entire the airmass cools.

Models agree on long wave troughing developing over mainland ak
this weekend, then retrograding over bering sea next week with
ridging developing over mainland ak middle of next week. This
means a colder weekend, with a warm up next week.

Surface...

strong high pressure over the beaufort sea will persist through
thu night, then weaken slowly. A ridge stretching from this high
over the NE interior will persist into Thu then slowly weaken.

This is causing east winds 25g40 mph over zones 204 and hills over
zones 219,220,221 that will last through Thu then decrease
slightly.

A weather front stretching from demarcation point to barrow will
persist through fri. East winds 25-35 kt continue northeast of
this front such as at barter island, but winds decrease quickly
along and south of the front. Also south winds are gusting 30 mph
through brooks range passes into this front, and will decrease
thu pm as the front weakens.

A second weather front stretching from the western chukchi sea to
st lawrence island to bristol bay will remain in place tonight,
then move east to lie from CAPE lisburne to anvik by 3am fri, to
barrow to anvik by 3pm fri, and to barter island to deadhorse
then north by sat. Snow along the front over zone 213 will become
a chance of snow along the west coast Thu and Thu night, with just
flurries or a slight chance of snow Fri into Sat along the front.

A low pressure trough stretching from talkeetna to northway will
move to anvik to northway by 3am thu, persist in place through 3am
thu, and move to glennallen to old crow by 3pm Fri and then to
denali to old crow by 3pm sat. Flurries and low clouds along and
east of this feature will gradually move west to fairbanks by fri
pm and over most of the eastern interior sat. This will cause
low temperatures to be about the same while highs are not as warm.

Discussion
Models initialize 200m too low on h500 high over northern alaska
based on fairbanks soundings h500 heights and winds. This could
be due to lack of kotzebue, mcgrath and barrow soundings. This
will play out with the high remaining a bit stronger, and
persisting a bit longer, than models indicate. This may keep lows
aloft and any incoming weather away from northern alaska a bit
longer than models indicate. Prefer the GFS and NAM on precip due
to their much more limited area than the ecmf. The precip the gfs
and NAM show developing over the SW interior tonight will probably
be further west than the GFS and NAM indicate due to the stronger
high aloft previously mentioned.

All models show low aloft over NW canada expanding into the
eastern interior Fri and sat, but expect this to be a bit weaker
and slower than models indicate based on the stronger high aloft.

This will bring low to mid level clouds, flurries, and slightly
warmer low temperatures to the eastern interior Fri night into
sat.

Models initialize well at the surface at 12z, except for the high
over the beaufort sea and NE interior is a few mb higher than
models indicate. This is causing winds about 3 kt stronger then
models indicate over NE alaska today through tonight.

Mos temperatures have been showing far too much diurnal range in
the eastern interior through thu. Eastern interior should keep the
same clear and cold conditions as on Tue and today, through thu,
other than the cloudy areas where night time lows will be higher
as the MOS reflects. From Fri into Sat MOS temps more adequate.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4... None.

Afg watches warnings advisories
Wind advisory for akz219-akz220-akz221.

Gale warning for pkz245.

Brisk wind advisory for pkz200-pkz240.

Jb jan 19


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PRDA2 - 9497645 - Prudhoe Bay, AK 49 mi47 min ESE 18 G 20 -1°F 1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Prudhoe Bay, AK
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SE25
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E27
G34
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G34
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G39
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G40
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E27
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E30
G37
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G40
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G39
E29
E34
G41
E33
E34
G42
E38

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AKU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------SE8SE8SE7SE4S9S8SE12SE6SE10SE11S11SE10SE4--SE10SE9
1 day agoE23
G30
--------------E26
G32
E24
G32
E27
G31
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G36
E26
G32
E29
G35
E31
G36
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E32315E30
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G34
E26
G30
E28E21
2 days ago----------------E21E20E21E21
G28
E25
G31
E23E27
G33
E23E22--E24E26E24
G29
E25
G32
E26E25
G32

Tide / Current Tables for Cross Island (Dinkum Sands), Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Pedro Dome, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.