Monday, May27, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Prudhoe Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 3:44AMSunset 11:51PM Sunday May 26, 2019 10:00 PM AKDT (06:00 UTC) Moonrise 4:04AMMoonset 10:42AM Illumination 42% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ240 Cape Halkett To Flaxman Island- 328 Pm Akdt Sun May 26 2019
.brisk wind advisory in effect through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..E winds 30 kt. Freezing fog.
Mon..E winds 25 kt. Fog and freezing fog.
Mon night..E winds 25 kt. Fog and freezing fog.
Tue..E winds 20 kt. Fog and freezing fog.
Tue night..E winds 25 kt.
Wed..E winds 15 kt.
Wed night..E winds 20 kt.
Thu..E winds 25 kt.
Fri..E winds 25 kt.
PKZ200 Norton Sound- 330 Pm Akdt Sun May 26 2019
Tonight..N winds 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Fog.
Mon..S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. Fog.
Mon night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
Tue..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
Tue night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prudhoe Bay, AK
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location: 70.46, -149.44     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 270038
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
438 pm akdt Sun may 26 2019
highlights...

red flag conditions near delta junction through this evening.

Strong winds near the alaska range through mon.

Significant rain across the west coast and western interior
tonight through Monday night, with heavy rain possible in the
western brooks range. Flooding along the koyukuk river now nearing
its crest, but the river will remain very high through the week.

Near red flag conditions from fort yukon and delta junction east
on mon.

Synopsis
The long wave pattern of a trough over the bering and N pac and a
ridge over WRN canada and NE ak progresses slightly through mon
as the ridge weakens. Several strong short waves will make their
way north over northern alaska over the next several days causing
the ridge to weaken, and causing southerly chinook flow to
tonight and Mon over the alaska range. This will keep NRN ak
warmer than normal, with isolated to scattered showers in the
eastern interior, periods of heavy showers along the west coast
and western interior, and a chance of rain over the north slope.

Moderate to strong south chinook winds will continue into mon,
then weaken from the west. This is causing strong winds along the
alaska range through mon.

Surface...

a 1020 mb high north of the arctic coast of alaska will strengthen
through tue. This has formed a bank of stratus from wainwright
east that will persist into Tue as a series of weather fronts move
north and keep east winds occuring.

A 1003 mb low the southern chukchi sea will move to 80 nm west of
point hope by 4am Mon then dissipate. A warm front from this low
to demarcation point will move north and weaken tonight. This is
causing light precip and fog along the front. It is also causing
east winds 25 kt along the arctic coast.

A thermal low pressure trough stretching from northway to arctic
village will move along the alcan border on Monday, then weaken on
tue. Warm and dry conditions and winds blowing into the trough in
the afternoon and evening will persist along this trough through
Monday. Near red flag conditions will occur east of delta junction
and fort yukon today and mon.

Strong south chinook winds over the alaska range will continue through
Monday. This is is causing red flag conditions in zones 223 and 226
near delta junction today that will last into Monday. Strong winds
near healy are also occuring, but rh is higher there. The winds will
decrease Monday evening as a front approaches from the southwest.

A strong weather front over southwest alaska will move north by
4am Mon to to bethel to a 999 mb low near galena to arctic
village with a trailing front from galena to illiamna. By 4pm mon
the front will be along the west coast with a 1000 mb low
developing near point hope with a front from point hope to
prudhoe bay to denali. By 4am Tue the front will be from st
lawrence island to a 1002 mb low 120 nm northwest of point hope to
barter island to northway. By 4pm Tue there is a 1006 mb low 200
nm northwest of point hope with a front to demarcation point to
eagle. This will bring heavy rain to the west coast and western
interior tonight and mon, and bring cooler temperatures and more
moisture to the eastern interior Mon and tue. Even though
temperatures will be cooler on Monday, near red flag conditions
are possible Monday afternoon from delta junction and fort yukon
east due to gusty southerly winds behind the front.

Heavy showers are expected Tue near the alcan border as the weather
front merges with the thermal trough. Could see 1 inch with this
feature along the alcan border tue.

Discussion
At 12z, the models initialize 10-20m too weak on the ridge over
eastern alaska, as shown by the fairbanks, yakutat and annette
raobs. Models show similar solutions aloft through 4am mon. After
that time, the GFS maintains the ridge over eastern ak slightly
higher than the ecmf and nam. Since all models initialize too
weak on this ridge, expect it to remain in place longer than
models show, and thus favor the GFS solution. In line with this
scenario, the GFS has warmer h850 temps than NAM ecmf.

On the precipitation field, the GFS and ecmf verify areal coverage
today much better than the nam, and the GFS and ecmf move the
precip north more quickly tonight and Mon than the nam. Favor a
mix of the GFS and ecmf for areal precip coverage, but leaning
heavily on the GFS for qpf. An area of heavy QPF shown by all
models along the alcan border tue, and we will use the GFS one
this feature at this time.

At the surface at 18z, models verify a few mb too weak on the
thermal trough low in the eastern interior and a few mb too weak
on the high north of the arctic coast. Models show similar
solutions through 4am mon. After that time, the GFS and ecmf move
the surface low NW more quickly than the nam. Given that the gfs
is doing better aloft, favor the GFS solution at the surface.

With all models deepening the thermal low trough in the ern
interior through this evening, expect winds associates with trough
in the interior are stronger than models forecast through this
afternoon, but will become closer to models solutions this
evening. On the arctic coast winds are now stronger than models
indicate due to the high north of the coast being stronger, so
expect winds to remain 3-5kt stronger than the GFS indicates
through tonight.

Bottom line is using the GFS for most fields, using a blend of the
gfs and ecmf for areal coverage of precip, using GFS qpf, and
adding 5 kt to winds in the ERN interior today, and 3-5 kt to
winds along arctic coast through tonight.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4... None.

Fire weather
Today continues dry and very warm in the eastern interior.

Red flag warnings continue in zones 223 and 226 near delta
junction through 10 pm tonight, then will see winds continue but
rhs rise. Windy conditions near healy will continue through
tonight as well, but rh is higher there. Winds along the alaska
range will decrease mon, and rh will rise and temps cool in the
eastern interior. Areas from fort yukon and delta junction east
will have near red flag conditions Mon pm with SW winds 15 mph
with rh of 25-30% and highs 70-75. At this time looks to remain
below criteria, but will be close Mon east of fort yukon and
delta.

Few tstms possible in SW ak today.

Isolated tstms in WRN interior mon.

Iolasted tstms possible across most of interior on Tue and wed.

Hydrology
Flooding continues on the koyukuk river and will last for at least
several more days, and possibly longer. Water levels are now
dropping at bettles, and will start to fall Mon at allakaket.

We expect 0.25 to 0.50 rain across the western interior and west
coast tonight through Mon night, with 0.50-1.00 along the south
slopes of the western brooks range. Expect headwaters of the
alatna river to get 0.50, while the john river gets 0.25 and
lesser amounts to the east. This will keep the koyukuk river very
high through the end of the week, and cause a return to the
current high levels later in the week. This rain will also cause
sharp rises on the kobuk and noatak rivers by midweek.

The rain along the alcan border on Tue could drop 0.50-1.00 inch
on tue, but amounts still speculative.

Freezing levels range from 4000 along the west coast to 10000
along the alcan border, may drop 1000 feet on mon, but will drop
several 1000 more feet on tue.

Afg watches warnings advisories
Wind advisory for akz223-akz226.

Red flag warning for akz223-akz226.

Flood warning for the koyukuk river at allakaket.

Flood advisory on the koyukuk river downstream of allakaket to
hughes.

Small craft advisory for pkz230-pkz235-pkz245.

Brisk wind advisory for pkz240.

Jb may 19


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PRDA2 - 9497645 - Prudhoe Bay, AK 49 mi37 min E 28 G 33 31°F 32°F1008.7 hPa

Wind History for Prudhoe Bay, AK
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G26
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G26
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G29

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kuparuk, Ugnu-Kuparuk Airport, AK13 mi76 minENE 23 G 277.00 miOvercast and Windy30°F30°F100%1009.5 hPa

Wind History from AKU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------E12E13E14E15E16E17E19E18E16E18NE22E19E22E24E23
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1 day ago----------W12W10W10W10W8W6W8W6N6NW5N5N7N9N9NE8NE8------
2 days ago----------W5W7W10W12W9W9W12W12W18W16W19W18W17W19W17W21
G29
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Tide / Current Tables for Cross Island (Dinkum Sands), Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pedro Dome, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.