Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 6:00 PM   Moonset 4:45 AM

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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 908 Pm Pdt Mon Apr 22 2024
Tonight - S winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 knots. Wed night - W winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Thu night - W winds 10 to 15 knots. Fri - W winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 knots.

PZZ500 908 Pm Pdt Mon Apr 22 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
southerly winds continuing over the coastal waters into Tuesday, gusty near point sur Tuesday afternoon. Starting Wednesday, winds turn once more to become moderate and northerly. Light southerly swell continues to move through the waters for much of the week.

FXUS66 KMTR 230255 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 755 PM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

New UPDATE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 118 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Warm inland temperatures expected through today before cooler, unsettled weather returns Tuesday and continues through late week.
Light rain chances for Thursday night and into Friday.

UPDATE
Issued at 748 PM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

The southerly wind reversal is in full effect this evening with low stratus clouds banked along the shoreline and spilling inland around the Monterey Bay, along the North Bay Coast, and through the Golden Gate. Inland stratus intrusion will continue overnight with most lower elevations covered given the deepening marine layer. There should be enough moisture for some coastal drizzle as well, especially along south/west facing slopes. This is all well captured via the going forecast, so no changes are necessary this evening.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Primarily sunny across inland areas with clouds lingering along the coastline and the Central Coast. Looking at satellite shows the southerly surge of stratus in action with stratus extending northwards from southern California to the North Bay coastline. As of 2PM, inland temperatures are in the upper 60's to low 80's while temperatures are in the low to mid 60's along the coast. Widespread stratus will move inland by late this evening/overnight throughout the majority of the Bay Area. HRRR guidance suggests that cloud coverage will be patchier in nature throughout the Santa Clara Valley. Monday night into Tuesday, orographic lifting will help to generate light drizzle across coastal regions with precipitation accumulations of a few hundredths of an inch expected.

An upper level disturbance will approach the coast beginning Tuesday and lead to a pattern shift from above normal temperatures to below normal temperatures. While Monday's highs were 5 to 10 degrees above normal, Tuesday's highs are forecast to be, on average, 5 to 15 degrees below normal. High temperatures along the coast will linger in the upper 50's to low 60's while highs inland will stay in the 60's with a few areas potentially reaching the low 70's.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Cooler, unsettled conditions will continue through Friday as an upper level disturbance moves inland. High temperatures throughout the work week will stay in the 60's inland and in the upper 50's to low 60's along the coastline. Low temperatures will stay in the mid 40's to low 50's with a few locations in mountainous terrain dropping into the low 40's. Guidance continues to indicate some light precipitation is likely Thursday into Friday but confidence remains mixed as to how much precipitation will actually occur. The most recent run of the ECMWF shows light, scattered showers moving over the Bay Area with amounts generally receiving less than 0.15 to 0.25 inches.

Temperatures will gradually start to rise and become closer to normal towards the end of the weekend with highs returning to the upper 60's to low 70's.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 PM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Moderate to strong southerly pressure gradients (southerly winds)
3.7 mb SMX-SFO and 2.8 mb SBA-SFO are coupled to a moderate onshore gradient (onshore wind) 3.3 mb SFO-SAC. The surface winds are also coupling to (mainly dry) cyclonic flow surface and aloft over the coastal and offshore waters; today's weather is a complex mix of warm season stratus, fog and southerly surge and larger scale cool season low pressure system dynamics.

Robust surface to lower level cool air advection will deepen the marine layer and fully weaken/mix out the marine layer temperature inversion tonight. Stratus will move inland, cool air advection and upsloping flow resulting in patchy drizzle. Radiative warming returning Tuesday will result in plenty of mixing with sufficiently drier air resulting in VFR conditions Tuesday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR, low confidence southwest wind maintains in to the evening. Coastal pressure gradient SNS-SJC is strong at 2.8 mb and if it holds it may influence the wind direction at both SJC and SFO in the evening once the current wind pattern diminishes, meaning it may bring about a stronger southerly wind component to 210 degrees.
It's a complex forecast and the mesoscale models are having trouble keeping up with the pattern, observations are very helpful. VFR-MVFR tonight and Tuesday morning the wind direction likely holding close to 210 degrees until late Tuesday afternoon/early evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus is tightly spun up with clockwise wind flow around the Monterey Bay per satellite imagery, a result of the southerly surge, marine layer deepening with incoming surface to lower level cool air advection. As mentioned above surface pressure gradient SNS-SJC has steepened to 2.8 mb and SMX-SFO, SBA-SFO pressure gradients are at least moderate in strength. Surface to lower level cool air advection will continue to deepen the marine layer eventually fully weakening the marine layer temperature inversion tonight. Patchy coastal drizzle possible tonight and Tuesday morning. VFR-MVFR tonight and Tuesday.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 423 PM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Southerly flow will persist into Tuesday over the coastal waters.
Locally stronger winds will be possible through the Golden Gate into the West Delta Monday evening and Tuesday afternoon.
Additionally, stronger southerly winds near Point Sur will develop Tuesday afternoon. Starting Wednesday, winds turn once more to become moderate and northerly. Light southerly swell continues to move through the waters for much of the week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

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San Francisco
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Mon -- 05:31 AM PDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:45 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:24 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:58 AM PDT     4.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:16 PM PDT     1.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:59 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:52 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:39 PM PDT     5.52 feet High Tide
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Golden Gate Bridge .8 mi E .
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Mon -- 12:53 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:08 AM PDT     -2.74 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:45 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:24 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:37 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:33 AM PDT     3.00 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:37 PM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:27 PM PDT     -2.10 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:59 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:40 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:52 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:27 PM PDT     2.61 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Golden Gate Bridge .8 mi E ., San Francisco Bay, California Current, knots

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