Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Luis M. Cintrón, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 5:55PM Saturday October 23, 2021 5:10 PM AST (21:10 UTC) Moonrise 8:06PMMoonset 8:43AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 327 Pm Ast Sat Oct 23 2021
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 13 seconds. East swell around 4 feet. Isolated showers through the night.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. East swell around 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. East swell around 4 feet. Numerous showers.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Northeast swell around 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
AMZ700 327 Pm Ast Sat Oct 23 2021
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Moderate to locally fresh trade winds along with a long dominant period swell will persist through the rest of the weekend, resulting in choppy seas across the regional waters. Isolated to scattered showers will affect portions of the local waters from time to time during the next several days.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Luis M. Cintr�n, PR
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location: 18.32, -65.64     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 231952 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 352 PM AST Sat Oct 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. A ridge aloft will continue to promote mainly dry and stable conditions aloft through at least the early portion of next week, limiting the potential for deep, organized convective activity from materializing. Patches of low-level moisture, however, will move over the area aiding in trade wind shower activity across the area from time to time. Choppy marine conditions will prevail across the regional waters through the rest of the weekend due to the combination of a long dominant period northerly swell and moderate to fresh easterly winds.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Monday .

Very tranquil weather conditions are currently being observed across the area as a much drier than normal air mass is filtering in. The latest GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water Imagery is showing precipitable water values ranging between 0.9 and 1.3 inches, which is more than 2 standard deviations below normal for this time of the year. Therefore, little to no shower activity has been observed. Mainly dry conditions are expected to prevail through tonight as this minima in precipitable water will persist.

A patch of higher low-level moisture located just east of the northern Leeward Islands will move over the area by Sunday morning and linger through Monday. This patch of moisture as it moves across will cause precipitable water values to climb to near normal values. Therefore, an increase in shower activity is expected for both Sunday and Monday. Passing shower activity is expected to move over the local waters, with some of this activity expected to briefly affect portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the USVI, especially during the overnight and early morning hours. Then, as the available moisture combines with strong daytime heating and local effects, afternoon convection is expected across western Puerto Rico. Given that the low-level flow will be mostly unidirectional from the east to east-southeast, additional showers in the form of streamers is likely to develop downwind from the USVI as well as downwind from el Yunque, affecting portions of the San Juan metro area. Since conditions aloft will remain unfavorable for deep and organized convective activity from materializing due to the ridge persisting, persistent as well as widespread heavy rainfall activity is not likely. However, moderate to locally heavy rainfall for brief periods will be possible and could be sufficient to generate ponding of water on roadways and in low-lying areas.

LONG TERM. Tuesday through Sunday .

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 455 AM AST Sat Oct 23 2021/

For Tuesday through at least early Thursday, model guidance suggests a relatively stable weather pattern. A dry air mass will move in over the area decreasing precipitable water content at or below normal levels. More specifically, relative humidities within the 850- 700 mb layer are expected to drop between 30% to 40%, which is two standard deviations below normal, serving as a limiting factor for shower development. However, the proximity of a short wave trough aloft will provide sufficient instability to, combined with patches of moisture passing across the area from time to time, enhance convective activity, especially during afternoon hours where diurnal heating and local effects are at a maximum. Therefore, expect isolated showers over U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra and eastern third of Puerto Rico during the morning hours and, in the afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. This activity will depend on the available low- level moisture in the atmosphere.

For the end of the workweek through the weekend, uncertainty remains regarding the prevailing weather pattern due to differences between model cycles. Models agree on a polar trough and surface frontal boundary exiting the Eastern Seaboard of the United States by mid week. In latest model runs of both GFS and ECMWF, the frontal boundary stalls northwest of the forecast area through Sunday. Previous runs would show a surface trough north of the region pulling deep moisture from the ITCZ across the northeast Caribbean. However, the latest runs are consistently showing an opposite solution with much drier mid to upper levels. Upper- levels still look unstable, as the polar trough slowly moves eastward and a cut-off low develops and remains over the area. The GFS has a much stronger solution with a deeper cut-off low cooling 500 mb temperatures to below -8 degrees Celsius, which is below normal for this time of year. This feature could provide steep lapse rates and an elevated potential for organized convection. The limiting factor would be the available moisture. To sum up, models consistently show unstable upper-level conditions by the end of the workweek through the weekend. This will definitely aid in any convective development across the area. However, uncertainty remains regarding the amount of available moisture which could mean the difference between very localized deep convective activity to more widespread and organized convection. And thus there is continued low confidence in the forecast details at this time.

AVIATION. VFR conds expected thru the forecast period. Saharan dust is present but in light concetrations, as a result visibilities will continue P6SM. VCSH possible near TJBQ later in the afternoon. Easterly flow of 20-25 kts will prevail below FL150 while surface winds are 10-20 kts. Surface winds will diminish over land after 23Z.

MARINE. Latest buoy observations continue to indicate wave periods fluctuating between 15 and 17 seconds from a 4-5 foot swell. This in combination with moderate to locally fresh easterly winds between 15 and 20 knots will continue to result in choppy seas through Sunday. Therefore, small craft operators will need to continue to exercise caution. Conditions are expected to improve Monday into Tuesday as the winds and swell subside. For beachgoers, due to the northerly swell present, the rip current risk is expected to remain high for the north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra as well as eastern St. Croix through at least early Monday. The northwestern beaches of Saint Thomas will be under the high risk of rip currents as well through early Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 78 90 78 90 / 30 60 60 60 STT 79 88 78 90 / 50 60 50 50

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for Culebra- North Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity.

VI . High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for St Croix.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for St Thomas. St. John . and Adjacent Islands.

AM . None.



SHORT TERM . WS LONG TERM . GL PUBLIC DESK . LIS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41056 10 mi40 min E 12G14 84°F 1011.5 hPa
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 18 mi52 min 89°F 86°F1014.2 hPa
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 18 mi52 min E 8G12 85°F 85°F1013.8 hPa
41053 - San Juan, PR 27 mi40 min E 16G19 84°F 1013.3 hPa
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 27 mi52 min ENE 16G18 85°F 85°F1013.8 hPa
CHAV3 - 9751639 - Charlotte Amalie, VI 38 mi52 min 85°F 1014 hPa
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 40 mi85 min E 5.1 87°F 1015 hPa73°F
41052 - South of St. John, Virgin Islands 47 mi40 min E 12G16 85°F 1013 hPa
LAMV3 49 mi52 min 84°F

Wind History for Fajardo, PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Juan, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, PR21 mi14 minE 129.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F72°F65%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for TJSJ

Wind History from JSJ (wind in knots)
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1 day ago--SE40000E7--00W3000S3SE3E7E12E12
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2 days agoE3000E4E5E30000S3E330NE40E9E9E7E12
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Tide / Current Tables for Playa de Fajardo, Puerto Rico
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Playa de Fajardo
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Sat -- 03:36 AM AST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:18 AM AST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:43 AM AST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:51 AM AST     1.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:33 PM AST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 PM AST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:05 PM AST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:12 PM AST     1.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current
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Vieques Passage
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:59 AM AST     0.42 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:46 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:18 AM AST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:29 AM AST     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:43 AM AST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:02 AM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:34 PM AST     0.70 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:47 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:54 PM AST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:20 PM AST     -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:05 PM AST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:10 PM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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