Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Jupiter, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:50PM Sunday January 16, 2022 5:14 AM EST (10:14 UTC) Moonrise 4:43PMMoonset 6:16AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 401 Am Est Sun Jan 16 2022
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Monday morning...
Today..South southwest winds 20 to 30 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 11 feet. Period 6 seconds. East northeast swell 4 feet. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms. Showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots along the coast to west 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots in the gulf stream. Along the coast, seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet after midnight. In the gulf stream, seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. Period 6 seconds. Northeast swell 4 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Monday..West northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet along the coast and 5 to 7 feet with occasional to 9 feet in the gulf stream. Period 7 seconds. North northeast swell around 3 feet in the morning. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Monday night..Northwest winds around 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots along the coast to northwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet along the coast and 5 to 7 feet with occasional to 9 feet in the gulf stream. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Along the coast, seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. In the gulf stream, seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet in the afternoon. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots along the coast to east 10 to 15 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 3 feet along the coast and 3 to 5 feet with occasional to 6 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet along the coast and 2 to 4 feet with occasional to 5 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..Along the coast, south southeast winds around 10 knots becoming west southwest in the morning. In the gulf stream, south southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Thursday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 401 Am Est Sun Jan 16 2022
Synopsis.. Winds and seas will increase today as a strong cold front approaches the region, with hazardous marine conditions through at least tonight as the front moves through the area. Showers and Thunderstorms, with locally strong wind gusts, will also move through the area today and tonight ahead of the front. The front is forecast to move off the se florida coast late this afternoon/early this evening, with lingering rough seas into the beginning of next week before conditions slowly improve on Tuesday as high pressure builds into the area.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas building to 7 to 9 feet today through Monday. Locally strong wind gusts and rough seas with showers and Thunderstorms today and tonight. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jan 15, 2022 at 12 utc... 18 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 17 nautical miles east of lake worth. 20 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jupiter, FL
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location: 26.91, -80.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 160810 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 310 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

. SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON .

DISCUSSION.

Short term (Today through Monday):

A formidable winter storm slicing through the SE CONUS today will drive a strong cold front through South FL mid-morning through the early evening hours. Increasing cloudiness and a swiftly tightening pressure gradient will veer winds from the S/SW at about 15-20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph, and potentially approaching Wind Advisory criteria. The duration of the gusty winds is what is tricky at the moment, though will continue to monitor throughout the morning in case a short-fused Wind Advisory is needed. Model consensus and forecast soundings show a 30-45 kt wind profile in the 950-700mb layer, with a deepening LLJ expanding across South FL over the course of the day, so would not be surprised if winds are underrepresented today as adequate mixing is possible.

Conditions are still expected to support a band of locally strong to severe thunderstorms just ahead of the front during the day today and once again when the line pushes offshore the east coast and interacts with the warm Gulf Stream waters. The SPC maintains a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across all South FL, with the primary convective mode expected to be a line/band of strong to damaging wind gusts, along with an embedded QLCS, which could result in a low threat of a brief tornado or two. A few things to note, however:

1. Antecedent dry conditions across the CWA and adjacent GOMEX and western Atlantic waters will limit boundary layer moisture recovery, with forecast dewpoints in the upper-50s to lower-60s. 2. Strongest dynamics and forcing should remain well to the north of the CWA, which will also limit buoyancy to some degree while keeping the coldest 500mb temps to the north. With that said, models have trended cooler with forecast 500mb temps across South FL at about -10C to -12C. 3. Forecast soundings forecast strong deep layer sheer, with 0-3km SRH values in excess of 300 m2/s2 and 0-1km SRH values in excess of 200 m2/s2. This is in response to rapidly increasing and veering low-level wind profiles. 4. DCAPE is on the lower end at about 500-600 J/kg which is due to the anticipation of shallow updrafts. With that said, a transient stronger updraft or two could build enough depth to spawn a strong to damaging wind gust and/or isolated tornado or two. Furthermore, steering flow of 35-50kt will keep showers and storms on the move but also ultimately means that it will not take much for shallow/weak storms to produce a strong to damaging wind gust. 5. Increasing cloud coverage will inhibit significant solar insolation, though enough sun in the morning hours, especially across the east coast, could translate to steepening lapse rates by the afternoon.

With the above in mind, the overall coverage of the strong to severe storms will ultimately depend on buoyancy, though as previously stated, once these storms move offshore and interact with the warm Gulf Stream waters, increased buoyancy and instability may give the line of storms another round of oomph.

Switching gears from land-based hazards to coastal/marine hazards for today. Increasing S/SW winds ahead of the cold front will support deteriorating beach and marine conditions over portions of the local waters, especially the Gulf waters. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect starting at 5 AM this morning along coastal Collier County as minor coastal flooding is possible today into Monday due to possible high surf (a High Surf Advisory goes into effect at 7AM) along with tides running 1 to 3 feet above normal. A high risk of rip currents is also in effect for all South FL beaches. The Palm beaches also have the potential for seeing some high surf and decent breakers and thus have a High Surf Advisory that goes into effect at 7AM.

In the wake of the cold front, blustery NW/N winds will advect a cooler and drier air mass across South FL as high pressure builds to the north. Given the dry airmass and influence of the high, fairly benign conditions (outside of hazardous marine conditions) will prevail Monday with PoPs near zero percent.

High temperatures today are forecast to be in the mid-upper 70s, though will be quick to drop off tonight as strong CAA in the wake of the front ushers in cooler and drier conditions. Monday morning lows are forecast to be in the mid-upper 50s with highs climbing into the upper-60s to lower-70s.

Long term (Monday Night through Saturday): Tuesday morning lows may be the coldest temperatures of the season thus far as a reinforcing shot of cooler air punches through the region. This will support daytime highs in the 60s areawide on Tuesday, with Tuesday morning lows largely in the 40s areawide apart from near the immediate coast (with some shot at upper 30s in the Lake Region). Wednesday morning’s lows will likely be similar despite a warmer airmass in place, and this is due to light winds and clear skies across the area, which will promote maximum radiational cooling.

High pressure just to the north will shift eastward on Wednesday with the flow veering more SE/S. This will commence a warming and moistening trend with high temps on Thursday getting back up to a few degrees above normal (largely upper 70s, low 80s) and overnight lows returning to 50s interior and 60s near the east coast.

The next frontal system will approach the area late next bringing with it the next chance for some showers, followed by cooler and drier conditions again for next weekend.

MARINE.

S/SW winds increasing today ahead of an approaching cold front, likely increasing to 25-30 knots this morning right ahead of the front. A period of Gale conditions, with gusts to 40 kt, will be possible on both the northern Gulf and northern Atlantic waters today, both in the prefrontal southerly regime and briefly along and behind the front. Additionally, strong convective gusts from showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front today are expected.

Winds will stay strong and gusty through Monday, then slowly subside thereafter through most of next week as high pressure settles into the area. Seas will also build rapidly today, with seas potentially over 10 feet over the Gulf waters and near 10 feet in the Atlantic through tonight. Slow subsiding of seas thereafter, but likely staying near 7 feet in the Atlantic through mid-week due to lingering northerly swell.

BEACHES.

Surf and onshore flow will increase today and tonight along the Collier County coast, and this could raise water levels enough (1 to 3 feet above normal) to produce minor flooding right along the coast in the most vulnerable areas, particularly into the Monday morning high tide cycle (given the full moon on Monday). Therefore, a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect beginning at 5 AM this morning for coastal Collier County. Otherwise, the rip current risk will be high at all South FL beaches well into early next week, then remaining elevated along the Atlantic beaches into mid-week due to lingering northerly swell.

High surf conditions are possible behind the cold front this afternoon for the Collier County beaches, and additionally will be possible this morning ahead of the front over the Palm Beach County beaches.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS).

Increasing winds and VFR through about 09z-12z ahead of an approaching cold front, then gradually deteriorating conditions after 12z with SHRA/TSRA bringing periods of MVFR/IFR. PROB30 groups remain in the TAFS for the afternoon hours, with just small timing differences between APF and the north-to-south Atl terminals. Winds continue to increase, 12-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots after 10Z, then S-SW 20 knots/gusts 30+ knots after 14z, with even higher gusts in possible TSRA/SHRA. Speeds begin to gradually subside after 17/03Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Miami 77 58 72 51 / 90 0 0 0 West Kendall 78 56 73 48 / 90 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 78 57 73 50 / 90 0 0 0 Homestead 77 56 72 49 / 90 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 78 57 72 51 / 90 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 78 57 71 50 / 90 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 77 55 72 48 / 90 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 77 54 70 47 / 90 0 0 0 Boca Raton 78 55 71 49 / 90 0 0 0 Naples 75 60 70 50 / 100 10 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ069.

High Surf Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ069-168.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ168-172-173.

AM . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ650- 670.

Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ630-651-671.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ610.

GM . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GMZ656- 676.

Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for GMZ656-676.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for GMZ657.



Discussion/Marine/Beach Forecast . PF Aviation . 17

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 21 mi56 min S 23G27 74°F 76°F1011.6 hPa63°F
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 45 mi48 min 72°F6 ft
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 59 mi74 min SSE 14G18 71°F 1013.8 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Palm Beach - Palm Beach International Airport, FL16 mi21 minSSE 15 G 2110.00 miA Few Clouds71°F64°F79%1011.5 hPa
Witham Field Airport, FL20 mi19 minSSE 810.00 miFair66°F61°F83%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPBI

Wind History from PBI (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hr0NW4NW4000S5E30E9SE8SE9SE8SE6SE5S4S6S3S5S4S3S9S10S11
1 day agoW5NW8NW10NW9NW11NW13NW14
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2 days ago--NW4N6NW5NW5N6NW6W4W8W8W6W8NW12W7W5W7W9W13W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Lake Worth Creek, Day Beacon 19, ICWW, Loxahatchee River, Florida
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Lake Worth Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:00 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:16 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:09 AM EST     2.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:35 PM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:03 PM EST     1.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Lake Worth Creek, Day Beacon 19, ICWW, Loxahatchee River, Florida, Tide feet
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Tide / Current Tables for Conch Bar, Jupiter Sound, Florida
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Conch Bar
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:26 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:17 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:36 AM EST     1.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:01 PM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:30 PM EST     1.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Conch Bar, Jupiter Sound, Florida, Tide feet
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