Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Buckhead Ridge, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:19PM Thursday September 23, 2021 1:33 PM EDT (17:33 UTC) Moonrise 8:08PMMoonset 8:29AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ610 Lake Okeechobee- 1001 Am Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
Rest of today..West winds 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tonight..North northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening.
Saturday..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Sunday..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Monday..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1001 Am Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
Synopsis.. A light south to southwesterly wind flow will continue across the local waters through Thursday. Winds will then shift to more of an east to northeasterly flow and increase as the upcoming weekend progresses. Scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms will be possible each day. Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and Thunderstorms.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of sep 23, 2021 at 1200 utc... 17 nautical miles east southeast of fowey rocks. 24 nautical miles east of port everglades. 13 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 9 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buckhead Ridge, FL
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location: 27.16, -81.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 231329 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 929 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

UPDATE. Scattered showers over the local waters and Gulf coast this morning. High pressure with a generally S/SW flow ahead of a frontal boundary working its way down the peninsula. An east coast sea breeze will develop today with a light synoptic S/SW which will allow showers and thunderstorms to focus over the interior and east coast this afternoon and evening. Abundant moisture is still across South Florida and is depicted well on water vapor satellite imagery and the 12Z MFL sounding having a precipitable water value just above 2 inches. Main impacts from showers and storms will continue to be the heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Showers and storms will continue to have very efficient rain rates as well as slow storm motion with a light mean wind vertical profile. Flooding continues to be the main concern, particularly over areas that have seen abundant rainfall in previous days with higher antecedent conditions across these localized areas. If these particular areas see heavy rainfall today it only furthers the flooding potential in those locations. Only a few minor changes to the forecast given current radar and current observations.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 732 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021)

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) . Light and variable winds this morning with a few showers over the Gulf coast. S/SW prevailing flow with a east coast sea breeze developing around 17z and moving through the east coast terminals. Showers and storms will focus over the interior and east coast this afternoon with VCTS. TEMPOS will likely be added for MVFR/IFR cigs/vis this afternoon in subsequent forecast once timing and location of impacts confidence increases. L/V winds once again tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 210 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021)

SHORT TERM .

Today through Friday:

A mid-level trough will continue to advect through the Great Lakes today as an associated frontal boundary at the surface continues to drag southwards across the northern portion of the Florida Peninsula. The persistent plume of tropical moisture remains over South Florida, thus keeping us in the same muggy and humid pattern we have been in over the last two weeks. This plume of deep tropical moisture out ahead of the approaching boundary with precipitable water values upwards of 2.0 inches and a moist vertical column will allow for another round of showers and thunderstorms to push across South Florida later today. Southwesterly flow out ahead of the frontal boundary will allow for the greatest coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity to be across the interior, Lake Okeechobee region, and east coast metro areas today. With the potential of a weak sea-breeze developing along the east coast and remaining stationary close to the coast due to the prevailing southwesterly flow, the concern for localized flooding across the east coast metro areas due to repeated rounds of heavy rainfall remains with us today. Storm organization will once again be multicellular with new development occurring along propagating outflow boundaries and boundary collisions. Although localized flooding and heavy rainfall remain the primary hazards with thunderstorms today, frequent lightning and gusty winds are also possible with the stronger updrafts today.

The aforementioned frontal boundary enters South Florida on Friday, with prevailing low level flow switching to a northeasterly/northerly direction on Friday afternoon as the frontal boundary slowly propagates southwards across the region. With a lack of ample upper level synoptic forcing, the progression of the boundary through the region will be slow. Abundant moisture will remain out ahead of the boundary which will allow for shower and thunderstorm activity to once again develop across South Florida on Friday as dueling north/northeasterly low level flow and south/southwesterly mid to upper level flow act to favor convection on the eastern side of the peninsula during the afternoon hours. Given the recent pattern and antecedent conditions, the combination of heavy rainfall and saturated soils will keep the potential for localized flooding in the forecast, especially in areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday) .

Going into the weekend the front should remain stalled somewhere between Lake Okeechobee and the I-4 corridor in central Florida as the parent trough begins to exit the region to our east. Ahead of the front, the summerlike pattern will continue, though winds should transition to a more northeasterly direction as high pressure takes control across eastern portions of the U.S. With this low level flow pattern, expect interior and Gulf Coast to experience the best rain potential, however, nocturnal showers and perhaps a storm or two will be possible along the Atlantic coast.

Going into Sunday and the start of the new workweek, some changes begin to take place. Aloft, our upper level flow pattern begins to veer a bit as a shortwave begins to slide north of our region and amplifies over the western Atlantic. This will re-energize the front or at least put it on the move southward through the region. Dry air advection will take place and will begin to limit diurnally driven convection north of Alligator Alley on Sunday and perhaps areawide by Monday depending on how far south the front slides. This dry northwesterly upper flow will likely continue to limit most convective development across the region early next week bringing a much needed break to finish up the long term period. However, there could still be a few rogue showers with the easterly low level flow . all depending on where the better moisture manifests within the boundary layer. Temperatures look to be on par with what we tend to expect for late September or early October.

MARINE .

As a frontal boundary approaches the region, winds will be light out of the south to southwest direction today before transitioning to a north to northeasterly direction on Friday. Winds will increase a tad behind the frontal passage this weekend, however the increase in wind speeds will have no substantial impact on seas as they will remain at 2 feet or less in all area waters. Outside of any shower or thunderstorm, overall marine conditons will remain benign. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible over the area waters throughout the rest of the week into the weekend. Waterspouts and locally higher winds and seas are also possible in showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Miami 76 89 77 89 / 40 80 30 60 West Kendall 74 90 75 91 / 40 80 30 60 Opa-Locka 75 90 76 90 / 40 80 30 60 Homestead 74 89 75 89 / 40 70 30 60 Fort Lauderdale 76 88 77 89 / 40 80 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 76 89 77 89 / 40 80 30 50 Pembroke Pines 74 90 75 89 / 40 80 30 50 West Palm Beach 75 88 75 89 / 40 80 30 50 Boca Raton 75 88 76 88 / 40 80 30 50 Naples 75 89 74 89 / 20 60 30 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Update/Aviation . Kelly Today through Friday and Marine . Hadi Friday Night through Wednesday . Frye

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwsmiami www.twitter.com/nwsmiami


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 67 mi99 min SW 6 G 7 84°F
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 68 mi45 min S 9.9 G 12 83°F 85°F1012.3 hPa73°F
VENF1 - Venice, FL 72 mi33 min WSW 6 G 7 85°F 87°F1012.6 hPa (+0.4)75°F

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Okeechobee County Airport, FL15 mi38 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F77°F79%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOBE

Wind History from OBE (wind in knots)
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CalmS6SW5CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4S5S4
1 day ago3CalmNW8
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CalmCalmS7S4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS73
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S5SE5N8NE5W8NW5NW6N3N54NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4445

Tide / Current Tables for North Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida
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North Fork
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Thu -- 12:58 AM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:51 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:25 PM EDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.31.31.10.90.60.40.30.30.40.60.91.21.31.31.21.10.90.70.50.50.50.70.9

Tide / Current Tables for Stuart, St. Lucie River, Florida
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Stuart
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:43 AM EDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:53 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:10 PM EDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:14 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.21.110.80.60.40.30.20.30.60.81.11.21.21.10.90.80.60.50.40.50.60.8

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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